iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 01/10/2026

The ONS estimates that the UK population increased by 228,000 between mid-2024 and mid-2025. Births only outnumbered deaths by 5,000. As a result, migration accounted for 98% of the increase (223,000). Here's the full publication 👉 www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...

031

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

In July, 43% of the public said immigration was an important issue affecting the UK, more than any other topic. Take a look at our updated public attitudes briefing to see how views vary towards different migrant groups and who is more likely to hold positive/negative attitudes toward immigration.

135

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Reports that small shops and takeaways have hired migrants on Skilled Worker visas have appeared in several media outlets recently. Our new Q&A explains why these employers were able to sponsor migrants, how many actually did, whether the government could ban them from using the visa system + more.

133

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

The government does not publish data on the share of foreign national offenders (FNOs) who are deported. However, the number of FNOs living in the community has increased over the past decade, suggesting that returns have not kept pace with prison releases.

130

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Non-citizens are less likely to receive bail than citizens and so are overrepresented in the population of people on remand awaiting trial. Around 25% of non-citizens in prisons had not yet been tried, compared to 11% of British citizens.

130

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Non-citizens were more likely to be convicted or incarcerated for drug offences and less likely for violent offences than British citizens The picture is more complicated for sexual offences—they are overrepresented among convictions but underrepresented in the prison population

121

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Offending varies by nationality. This is to be expected because people from different backgrounds will have different risk factors (e.g socioeconomic deprivation) The most common non-UK nationalities in English and Welsh prisons at the end of 2025 were Albanian, Irish, & Polish.

120

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

The share of non-citizens among people in England and Wales prisons is lower when age is taken into account. This is because non-citizens tend to be younger, and criminal offending takes place primarily among young men.

161

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

Non-UK citizens made up 13.1% of people given cautions or convictions in 2024 and 12.1% of the prison population in June 2025. This was similar to their share of the 16+ population

151

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/08/2026

We've updated our briefing on migrants and crime in the UK It looks at whether foreign nationals are more or less likely to be convicted than British citizens, and how many foreign national offenders are removed after serving their sentences Here are the key points.

11914

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

Sectors that hire migrant workers on the TSL will be required to increase their use of the domestic workforce. Will it work? Possibly, but the MAC highlights two key challenges:

171

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

The Migration Advisory Committee has published its recommendation on which middle-skill jobs should be eligible for temporary work visas via the Temporary Shortage List. The headline? Welders and other more technical jobs are in. Jobs that are more generic (e.g., Business sales executives) are out.

375

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

In 2025, just over 100,000 people claimed asylum in the UK. Our updated briefing explains who claims asylum, how these people come to the UK, whether their claims are successful, and much more. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

034

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

OBR forecasts have generally estimated that higher migration leads to (slightly) lower deficits and debt. How much, though, depends on whether governments use the additional tax revenue to increase public service spending to reflect a bigger population.

110

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Migrants' fiscal impact changes over time. They are more positive in the years after they arrive, but their contribution falls over time. This is because, later in life, people incur more public spending – particularly on healthcare and pensions. E.g. main applicants on health and care visas...

100

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

Broadly speaking, migrants working in jobs towards the top of the skill and salary spectrum bring a net fiscal benefit, while people who are out of work or use more public services have a net negative impact.

100

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 26/06/2026

How does migration affect the UK’s public finances? Overall, the impacts are small, but people on different immigration routes have significantly different impacts. Here’s why, in 3 posts…

246

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

Why do asylum seekers come to the UK? Our latest Q&A looks at what influences their destination choices, including grant rates, family reunion policies, and the UK's departure from Dublin after Brexit. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/co...

013

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

The Committee was critical of the UK’s migration data. It recommended that the government link visa records to employment, benefit, and public services data to better understand the outcomes of migrants on different visa routes.

120

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

The Committee recommended that MAC advise on the income levels that lead to a reduction in routes to ILR, which it says should be based on migrants’ net fiscal impact rather than income tax thresholds. It also said income levels should be assessed at the household level in some cases.

110

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

On the earned settlement, a majority: - Supported the introduction of mandatory requirements to acquire ILR (regardless of time on a qualifying visa). - Opposed extending the qualifying period for ILR beyond 5 years. - Opposed retrospection for migrants already on a route to settlement.

131

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 24/06/2026

A new Lords Committee report on the proposed changes to earned settlement, as well as the UK's approach to integration more generally, was published yesterday. Here are three things you need to know.

153

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

UK net migration fell sharply in 2025 to 171,000, down 82% from the historical high in early 2023. Want to know what drove the fall and what might happen to net migration in the years ahead? We've got you covered in our updated briefing. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

151

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

New net migration figures covering 2025 will be published on Thursday. Here's what our team will be watching out for – from the trajectory of net migration to the use of asylum hotels and a surge in citizenship applications. www.ox.ac.uk/news/2026-05...

1148

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Our latest briefing on migrants in the UK labour market charts the remarkable shift away from EU towards non-EU workers over the past few years. Plus data on migrants' earnings, use of universal credit, overqualification, and much more... migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/br...

144

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

68% of the increase in the UK’s population growth between 2005 and 2024 was due to net migration, and ONS projections assume this will rise to 144% in the coming years—in other words, the population would decline without net migration. See our updated briefing for more.

111

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

New Migration Advisory Committee analysis: which people on skilled worker visas stay long term vs leave the UK? Most likely to remain long term are lower-paid workers, health & care workers, women, young people, people granted first SW visa in-country, and ppl from lower-income countries of origin

111

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

From the Education Committee today: recommendation to align international education and student visa policy

143

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

“I think the book should be compulsory reading for every civil servant at the Home Office and every MP” - Former Home Secretary Amber Rudd on Madeleine Sumption's new book "What is Immigration Policy For?" Link to the book in the reply, for those civil servants and MPs who don't have their copy yet

153

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

ONS significantly downgrades UK population growth forecast on the back of falling net migration - with net migration central estimate reduced from 340k per year to 230k (means population of the UK would hit 71m by 2034, rather than 72.2m, as projected in 2022)

01416

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

Home Office monthly stats are out today.The data show that applications for Health & Care and Skilled Worker visas continue to fall. Meanwhile, the share of dependants is rising in both routes, even after restrictions on H&C dependants. What’s driving this trend is not entirely clear. Any thoughts?💡

243

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 19/03/2026

Dr Mihnea Cuibus, Migration Observatory, summarises how the ongoing conflict in Iran may affect refugee flows to Europe, and more specifically, the UK. Watch below ⬇️

032

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 13/03/2026

80k asylum appeals were pending at the end of 2025, double from a year before. Initial decision backlog has fallen but a growing appeals backlog means the number of asylum seekers receiving support - and in hotels - remains high. Our updated tracker of Labour's goals:

121

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

How will the higher language requirement affect migrants? In short, we don’t know because there's no data on how many migrants can speak English at the B1 or B2 level. In 2021, however, 90% of migrants living in England or Wales self-reported speaking English without difficulty.

100

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

The government has announced that migrants will have to pass an English language test at the B2 level to obtain settlement, up from the current B1 level. This change will come into force in March 2027.

114

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 04/03/2026

The government will stop issuing study visas to people from 4 countries, plus Skilled Worker visas to Afghans. It said this is because people from those countries were the most likely to make an asylum claim after coming to the UK to study. In 2025, there were 3,209 grants to affected nationals 👇

023

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 27/02/2026

New ONS data: % of intl students who stay in the UK has continued to increase. More are switching to other visas - 2 yrs after arrival, 62% of students who arrived in YE June 2023 had switched, up from 17% among YE June 2020 arrivals. Our previous analysis on this linked below

120

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

Settlement rates are expected to increase. One indication is that 82% of migrants who arrived in 2022 still had leave 2 years later, the highest share of any cohort in the past 20 years. This is before we consider the impact of govt's earned settlement proposals, which will reduce settlement rates.

110

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

The majority of non-EU migrants who arrived during the past two decades did not go on to acquire settlement. Settlement rates were much higher for family migrants (approx. 80%) than for work migrants and students (approx. 25% and 15%, respectively).

111

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 25/02/2026

How many UK migrants get settlement, also known as Indefinite Leave to Remain? We answer that question, and more, in our updated settlement briefing.

145

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

What is immigration policy for? Our wonderful director, @msumption.bsky.social, answers this question in her new book. You can pre-order Madeleine’s book using the code FEB26 for 25% off. Offer ends 20 Feb. 🔗https://www.waterstones.com/campaign/february-pre-order-offer #WPreorder

052

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

This is exciting! Our director, the brilliant @msumption.bsky.social, has written this super accessible and interesting book What is Immigration Policy For? (Spoiler alert: it’s complicated). Pre-order in the next three days for 25% off! Out on March 31 www.waterstones.com/book/what-is...

0189

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 12/02/2026

New monthly visa data out today. Visa applications falling, but dependants continue to be surprisingly high compared to number of main applicants

021

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 03/02/2026

Exciting news for immigration data nerds: Home Office will resume publishing exit check statistics probably this year, according to Jon Simmons - former Home Office immigration stats guru - speaking at Lords Justice & Home Affairs Committee this morning parliamentlive.tv/event/index/...

031

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

A Times investigation has found that visa agents are selling Skilled Worker visas for positions that don't exist. It's well worth reading the full article (link in the next post), but here's how it works.

1147

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

Family visa applications stabilised again in December after falling sharply in the last quarter of the year. This category includes Family Reunion for refugees, which was paused in September 2025, explaining the abrupt fall.

100

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 09/01/2026

There was a small uptick in skilled worker and health and care visa applications in December, after an overall downward trend throughout the year as a whole. It's worth noting, as of July 2025, care workers are no longer eligible to apply for the health and care route.

100

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

The MAC highlight research which finds a link between migrant integration and proficiency in the host country's language. In the 2021 Census, most migrants reported speaking good English, but 10% said they cannot speak English well or at all.

101

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

The MAC estimates that the average partner who came to the UK on a family visa in 2022/23 will represent a net cost of £109,000 over their lifetime. Their annual fiscal impact is positive for many years after arrival, but falls significantly as these people grow older.

211

Migration Observatory @migobs.bsky.social · 17/12/2025

Overseas Domestic Workers are, e.g., nannies, housekeepers, and chauffeurs who accompany their employers when they visit the UK. ODWs are vulnerable to exploitation. This abuse often takes place behind closed doors, which can make enforcement difficult.

100