iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Matthias Haslberger

Reto Bürgisser @retobuergisser.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

🚨 Job Alert 🚨 We're hiring a six-year Postdoc @stawi-univie.bsky.social, starting in Oct 2026 (or thereafter). Research: political representation, party competition, institutions, political economy, political behavior, or related fields 📅 Deadline: 20 Aug 2026 Apply here: tinyurl.com/dyf9bt7h

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

The data come from a representative sample of 1000 US adults (fieldwork 13 - 18 May 2026). Thanks to @verasight.io for making this data collection possible! I'm interested to hear - how do you think oil prices will affect the upcoming Midterms?

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

If - big if - prices remain near current levels, the hit to #Trump in the Midterms may be smaller than anticipated: sure, prices are higher than they were before the War - but people expected much worse. If you expected $7/gallon of gas, $4 doesn't seem so bad anymore.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

So far, the pessimists have been wrong: even with the collapse of the MOU, oil prices remain far below their March peak.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

🧑‍🎓 There were virtually no gender differences, but college graduates, younger adults, and Hispanic Americans were more pessimistic.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

🐘 Expectations were sharply polarized: 41% of Democrats and 35% of Independents foresaw >$150, compared with only 18% of Republicans.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 21/07/2026

#Oil hit roughly $120 in March - but during the May #ceasefire, most Americans thought the 2026 peak was still ahead. What does this mean for the #Midterms? ⏬ 📈 Only 22% said prices had already peaked, while 32% expected a peak above $150.

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Thomas Kurer @thmskrr.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

🚨We are hiring a two-year postdoctoral researcher (80%) at the University of Zurich within the new Horizon Europe project WELFAIR on the political implications of technological change, demographic ageing and rising inequality. The full job ad is here: tinyurl.com/3b6ddm25 Apply by August 9, 2026.

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Werner Krause @krausewe.bsky.social · 09/06/2026

New paper out in the @thejop.bsky.social (w/ @christinagahn.bsky.social) Do opinion polls shape election results? Using both cross-national data and a survey experiment, the answer we find is yes - though it depends on how we communicate polling results. www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/...

Image showing the abstract of the paper "Self-Fulfilling Prophecies at the Voting Booth" by Werner Krause and Christina Gahn, published in the Journal of Politics. The abstract describes a quasi-experimental study across 25 countries finding that parties polling just below electoral thresholds are approximately 45 percentage points less likely to clear them, and that this effect diminishes when voters are informed about polling uncertainty.

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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 08/06/2026

From April 2026 - The Missing Link: Technological Change, Dual VET, and Social Policy Preferences - cup.org/4sUzglE - @mhaslberger.bsky.social, Patrick Emmenegger & @ndurazzi.bsky.social #OpenAccess

BJPolS abstract discussing the impact of technological change on social policy preferences. It examines dual vocational education and training (VET), suggesting that dual VET reduces the demand for compensatory social policy. The findings are based on data from the European Social Survey and material from education systems.

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Tobias Rüttenauer @ruettenauer.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

📢 Open positions! I’m recruiting 2 postdocs + 3 PhD positions at C³S, @goetheuni.bsky.social in #ClimateJustice, environmental inequality, #Demography & #ComputationalSocialScience 🌍📊💻 3–4 years + strong support for training🎒 Deadline: 23 June 2026 More: www.uni-frankfurt.de/48794987/Zen...

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

Are you telling me human Marxists are now obsolete?

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

New blog post with @ndurazzi.bsky.social & Patrick Emmenegger for @lseeuroppblog.bsky.social. We argue based on three recent articles that vocational training still remains a viable policy option for boosting growth and containing inequality. Article links below ⏬

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Anna Wilson @awilson1.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Happy to see our paper out in @soceducation.bsky.social (together with @mhaslberger.bsky.social and Patrick Emmenegger)! For anyone interested in / concerned about the attractiveness of (vocational) education in a European context, this is for you! 🏫 🔗 journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...

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Per Engzell @pengzell.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Some excellent thoughts the future of publishing and evaluation in an overstrained system founded on uncompensated labor

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Link to the paper: doi.org/10.1177/0038.... Due to the impasse between Swiss Universities and Sage, the article is not currently Open Access. If you can't access it, please send me a message for an ungated version. 10/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Abandoning VET would be the wrong lesson: research shows that VET remains associated with lower youth unemployment, lower wage inequality, and other benefits. We hope that our work can spark a productive debate on how to make VET genuinely attractive to individuals, not just to policymakers. 9/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

1) Increasing the appreciation for practical and experiential learning—areas in which VET excels (and which may benefit from the growing threat of AI to white-collar work). 2) Making it easier to move from VET into university, so choosing VET doesn't mean closing the door on higher education. 8/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

To escape the downward spiral, policies must address this relative attractiveness deficit. We propose two main remedies that we believe could confront the underlying educational hierarchies: 7/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

This suggests VET is caught in a downward spiral. If low-performing and less motivated individuals are more likely to enroll in VET tracks, perceived educational hierarchies turn into self-fulfilling prophecies. This negative selection makes it less attractive for stakeholders to invest in VET. 6/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

3) Even people who view VET as offering superior labor market prospects still channeled low achievers toward it—and the social biases didn't budge at all. 4) The same patterns held across countries, regardless of the quality of the VET system. 5/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

2) Boys, working-class youth, and adolescents outside large cities (but not immigrants) were also steered toward VET, although achievement effects were substantively more important. 4/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

The results show that VET faces an uphill battle in the court of public opinion: 1) Respondents consistently funneled students with low achievement and low motivation into VET, indicating that they view it as unattractive for the high-achieving and ambitious. 3/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Patrick Emmenegger, Anna Wilson, and I conducted a vignette experiment where we asked 11,500 individuals from 7 European countries to assign fictitious 15-year-olds either to VET or to general education based on academic achievement, motivation, and sociodemographic characteristics. 2/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

🥁 New publication in Sociology of Education (@soceducation.bsky.social) 🥁 Europeans see vocational education and training (VET) as the path for kids who can't cut it in general education. Policymakers must address the downward spiral of declining prestige and attractiveness. 1/10

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 11/05/2026

Exactly, that's what I'm hoping as well!

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

On the first point, I'm torn: elevating the value of good ideas seems like an objectively good thing for science if it happens meritocratically, but I worry that this will be inverted if certain status markers are used as proxies for idea quality

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

I strongly agree on the second point! On the other hand, this is actually a reason to be optimistic about averting the slop-ocalypse.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

Very exciting, and slightly frightening, considering where automated paper generation was even just a few months ago. What's your take what this means for professional dynamics? Even more focus on personal and institutional reputation? Easier to break in from the outside? Or total slop-ocalypse?

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

Fantastic new resource for studying spatial dynamics in the knowledge economy!

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World Politics @worldpolitics.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

It's time for another Encode/Decode! @madselk.bsky.social, @benansell.bsky.social, Laure Bokobza, @aslicansunar.bsky.social, @mhaslberger.bsky.social, & @jacobnyrup.bsky.social use original #survey #data to explore #inheritance #taxation and its impact on #wealth #inequality: doi.org/10.1353/wp.2...

Marginal Inheritance Tax Rates by Multiple of GDP Per Capita in Eighteen Advanced Democracies

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Julian Limberg @julianlimberg.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

New article out in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: Why do we see such strong backlashes against carbon taxes in rural areas? We find that when rural residents feel disadvantaged by the state, a carbon tax feels like a punishment on top of a punishment: a "double disadvantage." 👉 tinyurl.com/3rhmvar7

cambridge.org

Unequal treatment perceptions and rural backlashes against carbon taxation | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

Unequal treatment perceptions and rural backlashes against carbon taxation

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Jacob Edenhofer @jacobedenhofer.bsky.social · 06/04/2026

Delighted to see this review of @drodrik.bsky.social’s stimulating new book out in “Economic Record”, co-authored with @grattonecon.bsky.social. onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

More broadly, paying closer attention to the role of skills can help us better understand the relationship between technology and policy preferences. Amidst ongoing transformations of the economic and political landscape, this seems like an important research agenda.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

👉 This dynamic is driven by dual VET, where training takes place in firms: individuals with school-based VET background resemble those with general secondary education.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

👉 Crucially for the politics of technological change literature, vocational education nullifies the association between automation risk and demand for social protection that we observe in individuals with general secondary education.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

👉 This relationship appears to be mediated by material self-interest and workplace socialization.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

Using data from the European Social Survey and an original survey, we find: 👉 Education type matters, not just education level: among individuals with comparable levels of secondary education, those with a VET background are significantly less supportive of compensatory social policy.

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

🥁 New paper in BJPS @bjpols.bsky.social 🥁 While there has been a lot of great research on how technological change shapes social policy preferences, I argue with Patrick Emmenegger and @ndurazzi.bsky.social that this literature is missing an important link: the role of skills, notably dual VET.

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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

NEW - The Missing Link: Technological Change, Dual VET, and Social Policy Preferences - cup.org/4sUzglE - @mhaslberger.bsky.social, Patrick Emmenegger & @ndurazzi.bsky.social #OpenAccess

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 18/02/2026

How do workers respond to using AI technology? For @defactoexpert.bsky.social I had the opportunity to highlight the implications of our recent @jeppjournal.bsky.social article. Read more in the blog!

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 28/01/2026

Thrilled to see our paper (with @madselk.bsky.social and @benansell.bsky.social) out in West European Politics!

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

While I, as a young-ish person, would say, just build and bring prices down, research on Brexit has shown that stagnating house prices risk populist backlash from homeowners. Housing policy thus faces a delicate balancing act between the interests of renters and homeowners, young and old. (5/5)

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Matthias Haslberger @mhaslberger.bsky.social · 26/01/2026

The policy implications are somewhat sobering. We know that a lack of efficacy ("politicians don't care about people like me") can be a driver of populism. The #housingcrisis, where young people are frozen out from the housing market, thus may generate populist resentment among young renters. (4/5)

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