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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

🍉paraver🟩🟡🟥 @paraver.bsky.social · 24/08/2026

Opinião com base no estudo do @mfariacastro.bsky.social. As "contas certas" são uma falácia castradora da evolução do país e da criação de riqueza. É conversa mole de quem não tem uma visão estratégica, alimentado pelo lastro de meio século de ditadura.

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Lucile Danilov @locdandloaded.net · 06/08/2026

You may not like it, but this is what peak localization looks like (Asterix: Mega Madness (PS1, 2001))

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Borja @borja.eurosky.social · 07/08/2026

Siempre viene bien echar un ojo a Portugal: Inversión pública y stock de capital público

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

7/7 A nota inclui muitas outras coisas, incluindo varios exercicios de robustez. Comentarios e sugestoes sao bem vindos: fariaecastro.net/files/Public...

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https://fariaecastro.net/files/PublicCapitalPT_Aug26.pdf

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

@mfariacastro 6/7 Comparando o PIB per capita em 2026 a um cenrario em que o stock de capital publico se mantem constante ao nivel de 2013, estimo que o declinio no capital publico tenha reduzido o PIB per capita portugues entre 0.7 e 5% em 2026, com uma estimativa central de 1.4%

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

5/7 Varios estudos recentes tentam estimar o impacto do capital publico no PIB. Usando uma abordagem inspirada pela contabilidade de crescimento, utilizo as estimativas desta literatura para tentar avaliar o impacto do declinio do capital publico no PIB per capita

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

4/7 O crescimento do capital publico e o crescimento da produtividade do trabalho apresentam uma correlacao positiva e estatisticamente significativa no curto e medio prazo. Estas relacoes são descritivas e nao devem ser interpretadas como estimativas causais.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

3/7 Esta evolucao reflete investimento publico persistentemente baixo. Ao contrario do consumo publico e das prestações sociais, o investimento caiu substancialmente em % do PIB apos a crise da divida e foi insuficiente para compensar a depreciacao

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

2/7 O stock real de capital publico atingiu um maximo em 2013 e caiu cerca de 13.3% até 2024. Apesar de alguma recuperacao baseada em projeccoes, permanece 12.2% abaixo do maximo em 2026. Em percentagem do PIB, diminuiu de 77.2% em 2013 para 52.6% em 2026.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 06/08/2026

1/7 Motivado por algumas discussoes e emails, decidi escrever uma nota tecnica sobre o declinio do investimento publico em Portugal e consequente erosao do stock de capital publico. Explico a metodologia e analiso algumas implicacoes macroeconomicas

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 14/05/2026

The St. Louis Fed is looking to recruit research economists with experience in monetary and fiscal policy modeling. Please apply if you work on these topics, or share with your network if you know of someone who does. Must be authorized to work in the US. rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/FRS/job/St-L...

rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com

Economist - Senior Economic Policy Advisor

Company Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis The Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is seeking research economists. The Division enjoys a strong international reputation (Economic...

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Paper here, feedback and comments are welcome! fariaecastro.net/files/FPS_Ap...

fariaecastro.net

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

9/ for this reason, we think that our work can relate to interesting comparisons between Europe and the US in the wake of the Draghi Report, and how the design of financial systems can affect investment in physical capital and innovation and ultimately economic growth

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

8/ our paper speaks to the role that the architecture of financial systems can play in determining long-run productivity growth. Bank-based credit systems are more likely to give rise to forms of soft credit relative to systems where firms fund themselves in competitive markets

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

7/ under discretion, a benevolent policymaker chooses even more soft credit than in the baseline. That is because they value the short-term stabilization gains, while taking the dynamic costs of interventions as given in Markov Perfect equilibrium

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

6/ a benevolent policymaker that could choose the extent of soft credit would pick zero soft credit under commitment. But then why is soft credit so prevalent in practice?

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

5/ when it comes to welfare, hard credit comes out ahead in our baseline calibration. Relative to hard credit, welfare is about 2.3%-3% lower in the soft credit economies. Thus we retrieve a form of the Lucas 1987 results, but show that this result is very sensitive to parameters

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

4/ Quantitatively, the hard-credit economy grows about 0.33–0.39 percentage points faster per year than the soft-credit alternatives. That difference compounds: GDP doubles in about 30.5 years under hard credit, versus roughly 5–6 years later under soft credit.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

3/ in a quantitative model calibrated to the US, we compare a "hard credit" economy to three "soft credit" regimes: loan evergreening, debt restructuring, and credit guarantees. All three reduce business cycle volatility, but also also reduce growth.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

2/ The key idea is simple: Saving distressed firms reduces bankruptcies and dampens business-cycle volatility. But it also keeps lower-productivity firms alive, weakens selection and raises R&D costs for others, slowing growth.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

1/ new paper w/ Pascal Paul and Juan Sanchez: Stabilization vs. Growth When firms in distress are saved, the economy may become more stable in the short run, at the cost of long-run growth. We study this trade-off in a model w/ fluctuations, endogenous growth, and heterog. firms

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

6/ The fact that the St. Louis Fed model contains a type of household heterogeneity means that we don't need to tweak preferences to get the right responses: workers do not own the capital stock, which helps with the right comovement of hours.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

5/ Jaimovich and Rebelo (2009, AER) show that you need a combination of preferences that weaken wealth effects on labor supply, variable capital utilization, and investment adjustment costs to get a RBC model to generate empirically plausible responses to TFP news.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

4/ Nerdy angle: contrary to my priors, it is actually hard to get the right comovements using a simple RBC model. TFP news create wealth effects that produce implausible contractions in hours and investment. Obviously other people have thought about this before.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

3/ If the Fed "sees through" the AI-optimism and holds rates constant, it amplifies the demand boom, which results in higher growth but also higher inflation. Endogenous propagation means that inflation does not go below target when and if the shock realizes in this case

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

2/ Today's productive capacity hasn't changed, but aggregate demand expands due to investment (and consumption) booming, which pushes inflation up. If the shocks realize, potential output expands and inflation falls. But if AI doesn't deliver those gains, stagflation ensues

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/03/2026

1/ New with Serdar Ozkan: using the St. Louis Fed DSGE model, we ask whether expectations of future AI-driven productivity gains can raise inflation today. We argue that they can, and that the Fed's response matters a lot. www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-econo...

stlouisfed.org

Can AI Optimism Raise Inflation? What a Standard Macro Model Says

This analysis finds optimism about future AI‑driven productivity can quickly lift output and inflation, and the outcome depends on the monetary policy response.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 26/02/2026

Aumento de 400% no numero de cidadaos americanos a residir em Portugal desde 2020, no @wsj.com

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 21/02/2026

St. Louis public libraries ahead of the curve, teaching children how to use Bloomberg terminals

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Hugo Figueiredo @hcfigueiredo.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Friends, I'll make @mdenardi.bsky.social 's words my own: Let's make the 19th PEJ Annual Meeting in Aveiro a great one. 3-5 July 2026. Submit your papers and please extend the invitation to all your relevant contacts. All relevant details and further updates here: www.ua.pt/en/pej2026

ua.pt

19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - pej2026 - Universidade de Aveiro

July 3-5, 2026

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Inveja! E' super dificil arranjar em streaming aqui nos EUA

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 23/01/2026

Small thing and took some time to get going, but seeing this made my day: one of my requests is now a Bill Proposal at the St. Louis City Board of Aldermen www.stlouis-mo.gov/government/c...

stlouis-mo.gov

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 18/01/2026

Another day in the collapse of the post-Cold War global order. I'll pour some bourbon and watch Ben-Hur.

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Reposted by Miguel Faria e Castro

Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 08/01/2026

This is a US government official calling for any US citizens who dissent from his immigration policy preferences, and "get in the way" of federal officers, to be executed by being shot in the face. By "get in the way" he means: being present, unarmed, dissenting, & driving away, without attacking.

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

No caso da minha mulher também estamos à espera há cerca de 2 anos, mas os advogados avisaram-nos logo que não seriam menos de 4-5 anos para ela

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

Obrigado Pedro! No nosso caso nem é muito crítico pois felizmente as miúdas são americanas. Há pessoal que tem bebés apátridas por causa dos atrasos. De qualquer das formas, insólito que as minhas filhas portuguesas já tenham dois vistos de entrada em Portugal no seu passaporte

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Pedro Guerreiro @pedroguerreiro.bsky.social · 26/09/2025

Lamento muito que a família do @mfariacastro.bsky.social também esteja a passar por isto. É vergonhoso que Portugal demore mais de 1 ano a reconhecer a cidadania de filhos bebés de portugueses nascidos no estrangeiro expresso.pt/sociedade/20...

expresso.pt

Atrasos do IRN deixam bebés de emigrantes sem pátria

Emigrantes aguardam mais de um ano para registar os filhos como portugueses. Durante a espera, não têm país nem documentos

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

Link to the paper: s3.amazonaws.com/real.stlouis...

s3.amazonaws.com

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

Once again, our method can be applied to *any* credit registry dataset that reports basic information on the characteristics of credit facilities. Such credit registries are extremely common in Europe, Latin America and parts of Asia. 11/11

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

We conclude by applying a back-of-the-envelope version of our method to summary stats reported in other papers in the literature that study capital allocation efficiency using data on credit. Doing it properly requires micro data, but we show our results are not crazy 10/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

This means that loans were "underpriced" during this period, i.e. contractual rates were too low given observable loan characteristics. We speculate that this could have been caused by credit market interventions, perception of implicit guarantees, and/or zombie lending 9/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

In particular, we show that the distribution of these lender discount rates becomes negatively skewed during 2020-21. This is not what we would expect from an "increasing risk premia" story, which would generate positive skew. These rates become too *low* during this period 8/n

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Miguel Faria e Castro @mfariacastro.bsky.social · 16/06/2025

We argue that this spike was driven by an increase in the coefficient of variation of "lender discount rates". These are the residuals of loan asset pricing: fluctuations in contractual rates that do not reflect changes in the observable terms of loans, such as maturity or PD 7/n

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