iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by @meadia.bsky.social

This interactive is really awesome, and you should check it out, so much detail in there Since it’s comparing to *final* 2025 partisanship we should expect the electorate to drift redder until satellites open in big localities, then lurch bluer projects.statenavigate.com/interactives...

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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 4h

Democrats blast Trump for frequently falling asleep during official events, but we saw the exact same thing from Joe Biden. And by "the exact same thing," I mean he never actually fell asleep in public but it totally felt like he might. by Jake Tapper

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 6h

“No way a D+15 poll is correct” “Actually it makes sense that Collins is doing better than 2020 in a worse environment for the 30 following reasons”

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 6h

Half this site will spend all day debunking a dem friendly poll as “unrealistic” but then completely roll over when Fox News or NYT drops a Republican friendly poll. It’s a different type of doomerism

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 6h

How many poll truthers are gonna say this is too friendly to dems

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 7h

Every poll from Fox News and NYT is like tossup with an expected electorate of R+5

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 7h

Its October. Election is officially 'next month.'

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 19h

If individual senate polls end up being off (underestimating the Dems) I would bet all I own on pollsters (even good ones) intentionally modeling a redder environment. Lots of individual senate polling does not match the generic ballot

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 21h

Gonna cry? piss your pants maybe?

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 23h

One thing has become crystal clear to me since the beginning of this year, pollsters are assuming a much redder environment than generic ballot points to. That or they assume that republicans will make up for lower percentage with higher amounts of voters

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

We're ten years into this and I still find it striking the degrees to which political reporters will go (esp at the NYT) to be deferential to Trump in a way they would never ever do for anyone else, least of all a Democrat

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MLC @chicyph80.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

I will caution people that it's VERY early But I've started looking at return rates in FL. We're now at about 32k mail ballots returned. And have at least a handful of ballots in all but 11 counties Nice sign of early momentum for Dems that they have a higher return rate in every county except one

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

This type of voter is exactly the type that is underestimated in Trump years. And now they aren’t voting.

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Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

“.. Mr. Paxton responds: ‘So to be honest with you, the numbers — when we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped. Right now, yeah, not good.’” @nytimes.com #TXsen www.nytimes.com/2026/09/30/u...

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Online leftists when maybe the most progressive elected person in the country doesnt say jews breathe plasma and live in the sewers

static.klipy.com

Nicacado Avacado

ALT: Nicacado Avacado

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

So like did Fox polling and NYT just decide that “yeah let’s just do one set of polls in oct” this year?

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

Michigan Polling: Senate: 🔵El-Sayed: 51% 🔴Rogers: 44% Governor: 🔵Benson: 53% 🔴James: 41% Marist / Sept 27, 2026 (Current MI-SEN Model Result Is: DEM 52% - GOP 47%) (Current MI-GOV Model Result Is: DEM 56% - GOP 43%) unitedstatespolling.com/p/republican...

unitedstatespolling.com

Republicans Are in Full Midterm Panic

Democrats continue their march toward a historic House majority as Trump’s approval sinks further

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

One of the reasons polling is showing a Dem overperformance this Nov is that the GOP voters are absolutely floored and demoralized that Trump has been worse than Biden on every single thing. The argument “Harris would have been worse” is a really big cope and they don’t even believe it

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Of course they did. They very much wanted to believe "it can only good happen" which is both why they didn't pay attention to anything he said during the campaign that went against that and also why theyre so flabbergasted that only good is very much not happening now

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Polling USA @usapolling.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Incredible, Democrats have officially hit a 10 point lead on the generic ballot

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I’ve seen a lot of people poo pooing the D+15 poll but a D+12 fits in nicely with this universe

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

This is very plausible. The GOP insiders are way more negative than polling would justify (Bluesky status) I think their internals must be really bad

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Hope getting to see your Republican electeds try and brutalize gays and brown ppl was worth it, Iowa farmers

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Eric Michael Garcia @ericmgarcia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Via David Paleogos at Suffolk: the latest Suffolk poll numbers in Ohio #OHGov Acton 50 Ramaswamy 41 Kissick 3 Undecided 5 Who is running the more negative campaign Ramaswamy 48 Acton 23

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

I really want a Marist poll of GA Gov! I know they would find bottoms up by 15

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I Nied braaaaiiiiins 🧟 @nied.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Worse the very actions people said Biden could do so easily turned out to have prolonged the conflict. Threatening aid just made Netanyahu prep to forge ahead without US aid. Allowing a ceasefire resolution pass in the UN caused Sinwar to back out of ceasefire negotiations.

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I Nied braaaaiiiiins 🧟 @nied.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Rereading this article just makes me mad. We had folks working tirelessly for a ceasefire & we threw it away over a fantasy that there was a Bibi remote control on the Resolute Desk that Biden refused to use.

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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 28/09/2026

Winning the midterms will not solve all of our problems. But it will give us something we currently lack: Tools the address them, both now and in the future. It will take a decade to get us out of the dilemma we find ourselves in. This is just the first, crucial, necessary step in that process.

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NY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Democrats are ahead in the polls. So why does it feel like they’re behind?

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It’s much easier to go back and blame Biden than to actually analyze the main political question of the day which is “why is Trump so unpopular for doing the things he promised?”

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

People talk about Biden like he’s some Shakespearian tragic figure. “He did good but his fatal flaw did him in” Relax everyone. Sure he had flaws but he navigated out of a post Covid world and helped the us to avoid much of the economic blowback the rest of the world still struggles with

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Vibecession Forever @ghazelleberner.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

"No Santa in Israel, pal." I miss him so much.

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It is incredible how in the tank some journalists are for Trump and the GOP

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Dont think I've ever seen a political party willingly walk themselves into a buzzsaw the way the GOP has done this year

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

This has to be rage bait right? Even if you think Purdy is a fraud, have you watched Maye this year? Dude’s fall off is gonna be studied for years if he doesn’t turn this around. Crazy these barstool bros are millionaires with this type of trash takes

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Trump is a living, breathing case study of why every single "Dems need to DO SOMETHING" account/post is advocating for actively harmful behavior bc they, like Trump, have no conception of politics outside of the performativity of social media

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

They like Trump and want him to win

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Cao Cao Power Hour Enthusiast @statsboyandi.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I like how the bat signal went out to the center media poll nerds (Nates/Charlie Cook) that we needed to down play that Dems are going to clobber Republicans. In basically any other scenario, they would be crowing that Republicans were about to have a mandate lol

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Since we're on the subject of "how do we classify Trump" again, I think an honest assessment of his actual strengths is two-fold: #1 he became a dominate brand in two impt mass mediums—TV & social media—&, relatedly, #2 he grasped that norms could be violated w/o consequence by someone that did that

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Michael McDonald @electproject.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Trump banning CNN raises questions about Biden’s cognitive functions - by Jake Tapper

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

Also based on the polling a lot of GOP voters are saying “I do not know if I will vote” so it will be really hard for the polls to capture the movement if they decide last minute to vote. It’s just something that happen

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Ben McAdams (The Resurrection Arc) @purrtah.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

For instance 27% of rural Republicans disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and only 59% of them say they are certain to vote in the midterms. We gotta make sure that turnout is depressed and I really dont care what tactics are used to do it

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meadia.bsky.social @meadia.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

I actually don’t mind people saying “hey maybe the Dems are being over estimated in polling” or whatever. The Georgia election in May (for the judges) really tampered down my unbridled optimism. So I completely get if people are feeling that way. But there are limits

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Daniel Gilmore @gilmored85.bsky.social · 27/09/2026

As subset of the doomer strain of thought on here is "blue states wont see a wave bc reasons" and given that the overriding cause of the discontent fueling said wave is high prices, do ppl think that blue states just got to opt out of inflation and price increases?

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