iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Mariacristina De Nardi

Minneapolis Fed @minneapolisfed.bsky.social · 28/08/2026

Risks to workers' jobs & earnings have often been chalked up to "productivity shocks" like technology. Research by @oiginstitute.bsky.social 's Orazio Attansio & @m@mdenardi.bsky.social tries a fresh approach to data & finds a good job match is more important. bit.ly/3RV9lxa

Four hands hold illustrated puzzle pieces with anonymous profiles. Each piece connects around a central question mark and speech bubble.

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ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin @rfberlin.bsky.social · 13/04/2026

How expectations shape labor market decisions: Subjective Earnings and Employment Dynamics by Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social & Gonzalo Paz-Pardo www.rfberlin.com/wp-content/u...

rfberlin.com

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NBER @nber.org · 08/04/2026

Showing how to identify models of earnings and employment dynamics from subjective expectations data, from Manuel Arellano, Orazio Attanasio, Margherita Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social, and Gonzalo Paz-Pardo www.nber.org/papers/w35027

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Bottom line: high observed earnings persistence does not necessarily mean highly persistent of individual-level productivity shocks. A large part reflects heterogeneity and employer transitions.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Reduced-form estimates can overstate persistence and volatility because they load on job transitions and sorting. Once we account for heterogeneity, volatility falls sharply and becomes much flatter across the earnings distribution.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Main result: we find less persistence and less volatility in individual productivity shocks than much of the earlier literature suggests, but more heterogeneity in ability and match quality.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Using the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, we observe expected earnings offers, the distribution of those offers, and the probability workers would accept them. That gives direct information on counterfactuals that realized outcomes alone do not.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

How much of measured earnings risk is really individual-level productivity risk, and how much reflects sorting, job transitions, and heterogeneity? We show that subjective expectations data help separate these forces.

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Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute @oiginstitute.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Over our lives, we face many risks and choices. Read new working paper from @mdenardi.bsky.social, @johanatch.bsky.social, Borella, & Yang for a life-cycle model w/ single and married individuals jointly choosing labor supply and savings from labor market entry until death  bit.ly/4anebZ5

The image displays a cover for a working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute. The title is "Why Do Households Save and Work?" and the authors are Margherita Borella, Johanna Torres Chain, Mariacristina De Nardi, and Fang Yang.

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Hugo Figueiredo @hcfigueiredo.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Friends, I'll make @mdenardi.bsky.social 's words my own: Let's make the 19th PEJ Annual Meeting in Aveiro a great one. 3-5 July 2026. Submit your papers and please extend the invitation to all your relevant contacts. All relevant details and further updates here: www.ua.pt/en/pej2026

ua.pt

19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - pej2026 - Universidade de Aveiro

July 3-5, 2026

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Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute @oiginstitute.bsky.social · 17/02/2026

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Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute @oiginstitute.bsky.social · 11/02/2026

In new paper, Margherita Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social, Fang Yang, and @johanatch.bsky.social use a life-cycle model with family structure, labor supply responses, and late-life risks to show bequest motives and medical expense risk are important drivers of aggregate wealth bit.ly/4anebZ5

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 05/12/2025

General equilibrium behind the window. Strategic interaction on the windowsill. The chickens are the recurring protagonists of my Intermediate Micro class. The Grinch dropped by for yesterday’s lecture.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 04/12/2025

Morning photo from my office at the University of Minnesota this morning. Outside temperature -22 degrees Celsius. Time: 6:35 am.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Please submit to this conference to help make it a great one! I will be there, together with Stéphane Bonhomme and Michèle Tertilt. 19th Annual Meeting of the Portuguese Economic Journal - Aveiro, 3-5 July 2026 Deadline: 15 March 2026 Website: lnkd.in/d6Dmdfx7

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Gabriella Conti @gabriconti.bsky.social · 08/11/2025

📍Back from a busy week at the #Fed’s #OIGI in #Minneapolis. Productive time interacting w/ coauthors & researchers + v engaged seminar on workforce in large-scale home visiting. Many thanks to Abigail Wozniak for the invite & to @mdenardi.bsky.social for hosting - had a great time! 🙏

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 03/11/2025

How does employer access to prisoners’ labor through work release impact the well-being of those workers & of free workers? New working paper by Sue Helper, Suresh Naidu, Akseli Palomaki, Adam Reich, + me provides evidence, focus on auto manufacturing in AL #EconSky papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Coercion and Monopsony in Modern American Manufacturing: Evidence from Alabama Prison Labor
Susan Helper Suresh Naidu Akseli Palomaki Adam Reich
Aaron Sojourner

We study coercion and monopsony in contemporary U.S. manufacturing labor markets. We combine administrative data from the Alabama Department of Corrections work release program with a unique survey of workers in the Alabama auto supply chain
where workers report their work-release status. We first present descriptive patterns of work-release labor, finding that the use of incarcerated (i.e., work-release) labor is concentrated in the auto supply industry, especially in the Montgomery area, where
Hyundai’s assembly plant is located. In the survey, the share of plant-level workers who are incarcerated is negatively correlated with non-incarcerated wages. The survey also enables estimation of hypothetical quit elasticities separately among incarcerated
and non-incarcerated workers. Incarcerated workers are estimated to have quit elasticities less than half that of non-incarcerated workers. Because Alabama law requires employers to pay the same wage to incarcerated and non-incarcerated workers in the same jobs, the additional monopsony power introduced by employer access to incarcerated workers creates an incentive and ability for employers to reduce plant-level wages to, and employment of, non-incarcerated workers. We build a quantitative model of firm-specific labor supply that, for incarcerated workers, distinguishes the roles of coercion (the risk of physical harm in prison from not working), wage garnishment that blunts the consumption effect of higher wages, and monopsony (limited mobility across employers). Using it, we estimate effects on free and incarcerated workers’ welfare from i) reforming prison conditions to eliminate violence, ii) eliminating prison labor wage
garnishment, iii) imposing a $15 minimum wage, &iv) abolishing prison labor. Free worker welfare goes up in all scenarios...

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

His broader work combines structural and empirical approaches, including causal policy evaluation and applied macroeconometrics. He brings strong technical skills, clear economic insight, and a research agenda at the frontier of health, inequality, and policy design.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

He finds that these reforms generated large welfare gains for low-income families, produced substantial crowd-out of private coverage, but had little effect on private premiums.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

Francisco’s job-market paper develops a quantitative equilibrium model with rich household heterogeneity to study how U.S. Medicaid expansions affected private insurance markets and welfare.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 01/11/2025

I have a truly fantastic Econ PhD job market candidate on the market this year: Francisco Bullano is a macroeconomist whose research bridges public economics and health. His Web page: franciscobullano.com Please look at his job market package very closely.

franciscobullano.com

Francisco Bullano

Francisco Bullano is a PhD Candidate in Economics at University of Minnesota

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Jaap Abbring @jaap.abbring.org · 29/09/2025

#EctJ published its Sept 2025 issue, with @mdenardi.bsky.social's 2024 Sargan Lecture on "Health inequality and health types", Chen Qiu's "Cross-fitted empirical likelihood on semiparametric models" as Editors' Choice of lead article, and 6 more fine contributions academic.oup.com/ectj/issue/2...

academic.oup.com

Volume 28 Issue 3 | The Econometrics Journal | Oxford Academic

Established in 1998 by the Royal Economic Society, The Econometrics Journal promotes the general advancement and application of econometric methods and techniques to problems of relevance to contempor...

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VoxEU @ CEPR @voxeu.org · 15/09/2025

Household saving & labour supply are shaped by various risks throughout the lifespan. M Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social @fang-yang-econ.bsky.social & @johanatch.bsky.social analyse how these risks interact to better design policy that protects households from shocks. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Household saving and labour supply are shaped by many risks – wages, marriage, health, longevity – as well as bequest motives. This column develops a model that tracks individuals from age 26 through to retirement and death to show how these risks interact to drive economic behaviour. The findings highlight that incorporating risk, and how it differs by gender, marital status, and age, helps design policies that protect households from shocks without distorting work and saving incentives.

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Gabriella Conti @gabriconti.bsky.social · 13/07/2025

🇬🇧A month in London-a great time to reflect & recharge. B4 things ramp up again, a quick recap of May–June 1️⃣ @cesifo.org Area Conference Labor Economics 2️⃣ @kuleuvenuniversity.bsky.social Applied Workshops 3️⃣ @rfberlin.bsky.social Workshop Economics of Aging 4️⃣ Workshop Economics of Risky Behavior

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 03/07/2025

I am grateful to Ed for his mentorship and to SAET for inviting me to give this lecture.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 07/06/2025

Thank you, Christian — to both you and Jerome Adda — for a fantastic conference and the honor of being a plenary speaker alongside Joseph Hotz. The event was both productive and enjoyable, and your Berlin initiative is truly inspiring!

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ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin @rfberlin.bsky.social · 05/06/2025

We are kicking off the RFBerlin Workshop on the Economics of Aging with @mdenardi.bsky.social’s keynote lecture on “Health Inequality and Economic Disparities by Race, Ethnicity, and Gender”.

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NBER @nber.org · 06/06/2025

Exploring why households work and save. Bequest motives and risks in wages, medical expenses, and marital dynamics explain 56.9 percent of aggregate wealth and 2.7 percent of aggregate earnings, from Borella, @mdenardi.bsky.social, Yang, and Torres Chain www.nber.org/papers/w33874

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 01/06/2025

I learned a lot from this conference and it was fun too!

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Panel Study of Income Dynamics @umpsid.bsky.social · 11/04/2025

Good morning, #PAA2025! Come see us in the Expo Hall at Booth 404 where study staff will be able to help you with your #PSIDdata questions!

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Olivier Simard-Casanova @o.simardcasanova.net · 09/04/2025

Hard endorse

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 22/03/2025

What a great visit and seminar feedback! Thank you very much for inviting me!

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Hetan Shah @hetanshah.bsky.social · 19/03/2025

Good to see the FT editorial draw attention to this less well known casualty of the US regime - official statistics on.ft.com/43Tejhn

on.ft.com

The White House war on federal statistics

Economists and scientists worry over disappearing data and advisory groups

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 04/03/2025

C'mon, Iowa!

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Joshua Mask @joshuafmask.bsky.social · 02/03/2025

doi.org/10.1093/qje/...

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Louis Johnston @ldjeconomics.bsky.social · 02/03/2025

A national cryptocurrency reserve is a scam. It is simply an attempt by those who own cryptocurrency to trade it for US dollars or gold from the Treasury. The federal government will be left holding this bag of hazardous waste.

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Eric Topol @erictopol.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

Our lifestyle and environmental exposures are the predominant influencers of healthy aging and premature mortality, compared with polygenic risk, in the first comprehensive assessment www.nature.com/articles/s41... open-access

nature.com

Integrating the environmental and genetic architectures of aging and mortality - Nature Medicine

Based on a systematic analysis of environmental exposures associated with aging and mortality in the UK Biobank, the relative contributions of such exposures and genetic risk for mortality and a range...

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Christian Stöcker @christianstoecker.de · 17/02/2025

What Europe should do RIGHT NOW: Make it extremely easy for US scientists to get long-term visa, create as many additional research jobs in key areas as possible, create new, generous science and research funds. People are losing their jobs over there NOW. Let‘s welcome them.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 29/01/2025

Some data on the responses to my post on my recent JPE acceptance on the platforms I frequent X: 18 repost, 86 likes (8,117 followers) Blue sky: 0 repost, 10 likes (3.2k followers) LinkedIn: 1 repost, 100 likes (1177 connections) Facebook: 0 reposts, 39 likes (636 friends)

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

As a result, bequest motives are a key determinant of aggregate retirement wealth.

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Mariacristina De Nardi @mdenardi.bsky.social · 28/01/2025

We show that saving motives vary by marital status, permanent income, and age. We find that most households save more for medical expenses than for bequests but that richer households and couples, who hold most of the wealth, save more for bequests.

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