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Michael Weissman

@mbweissman.bsky.social
251 followers 196 following 532 posts

physicist, does some stats etc. scholar.google.com/citations?user=F… michaelweissman.substack.com www.dailykos.com/users/docmidwest x.com/mbw61567742

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 1h
🧪 My paper re-examining the market origin of Covid is now published, with some fixes from the pre-posted version. econjwatch.org/file_downloa...
econjwatch.org
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 4h
🧪 My revised discussion of the problems with the Worobey et al. 2022 Science article on Covid market origin is now published in final form. econjwatch.org/articles/an-... Goes with econjwatch.org/articles/an-... People who thought the Science articles were "dispositive" should have a look.
econjwatch.org
An Article in <em>Science</em> on Covid Origins Contains a Fundamental Error · Econ Journal Watch : Bayesian methods, likelihood ratios, epidemiology, random mutations, SARS-CoV-2 origins, statistics ...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 16/08/2026
🧪 My critique of the Worobey 2022 Science paper on the Wuhan market will be published in Sept. The journal has posted the unformatted manuscript early due to the current interest in the topic. econjwatch.org/file_downloa...
econjwatch.org
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
🧪 After enough online arguments I've picked up a set of epistemological peeves. It might be fun for others to join in with more. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/epistemolo...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
🧪 @mark-ungrin.bsky.social I put up a short blog about the Munster/Kew inactivated Mpox business, trying to disentangle some issues that got lumped together. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/munster-kw...
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Patrick McCann @pjmccann3.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Scientists shouldn’t censor scientists especially at a scientific meeting where the free exchange of ideas is supposed to happen regardless of political content. MAHA will literally kill people. Talking about it can save lives. Science does not exist in isolation from politics. #MedSky 🧪
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Princess Vimentin PhD | Cancer Biologist @princess-vimentin.bsky.social · 06/06/2026
Police pushed out a couple of the attendees at a diabetes scientific meeting. The crime: Passing out printouts of a recent publication calling out the administration for destroying our research infrastructure. The right to free speech was infringed upon. Censorship is real. We have to stand up.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Cowards die many times open.substack.com/pub/biosafet...
open.substack.com
Cowards die many times
"On reading," by Simon Wain-Hobson, is a weekly discussion of scientific papers and news articles around gain of function research in virology.
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Wolf Hour @wolfhour.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
(cartoon Steve Sack) #politics
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Kat Abughazaleh @katmabu.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
May Day is one day. Solidarity is every day. After today's action, the work doesn’t stop. When workers strike, ask for support. Show up, don’t cross picket lines, and make it real by backing labor actions in your daily choices.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
On the issue of bias in test-negative controls, the excuse Bhattacharya gave for censoring the Covid vax efficacy MMWR paper, see pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39567531/ The main bias is rarely as large as 8% and tends to underestimate efficacy. A more general treatment: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33831173/
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Jonathan Howard @joho.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
They should introduce him by playing this and dozens of other similar interviews from 6 years ago.
youtu.be
Dr. John Ioannidis minimizes COVID April 2020
YouTube video by Jonathan Howard
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Turns out ChatGpt lies repeatedly when hammered on an easy apolitical question. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/interrogat...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
🧪Dunno if this is useful to anybody but I scrounged some old notes introducing likelihood methods and Bayes, with some exercises included. A supplement to an intro stats course. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/likelihood...
michaelweissman.substack.com
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Vince Mpls @vincempls.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
July 21 1935: The Führer orders a new reception hall and ballroom to "entertain foreign diplomats" at the Chancellery. Underneath the dance floor is an air raid shelter. A 2nd deeper bunker is built next to this in 1944, where he would spend his last days as the Reich collapsed.
Leonard Gall (left) architect of the new ballroom, stands with Hitler and Albert Speer at the other major construction project in 1936, the Haus der Deutschen Kunst in MünchenThe new ballroom and reception hall attached to the Old Reich Chancellery, with the floor removed to reveal the Vorbunker. Illustration by Christoph Neubauer www.atelier-neubauer.de
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
My thoughts on the Covid origins group-think frying pan econjwatch.org/articles/an-... econjwatch.org/podcast/mich... and the MAGA fire. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bhattachar...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
🧪 Jay Bhattacharya will be a lead speaker in an upcoming NAS workshop on scientific integrity. Thats a bad choice: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bhattachar... JB's ideology drives not only his policy choices but his science. He's right about Covid origins but wrong about more immediate issues.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
🧪
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
The famous two-Covid-spill Pekar 2022 Science paper got its result upside down via a math error. abstract: econjwatch.org/articles/an-... pdf: econjwatch.org/file_downloa... interview with Jamie Robins: econjwatch.org/podcast/mich... substack discussion: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/sciences-p...
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Domingos @domingosmcc.bsky.social · 01/03/2026
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Craig Unger @craigunger.bsky.social · 28/02/2026
They Built It. Now They're Bombing It. The 1980 October Surprise didn't just put Reagan in the White House. GOP operatives also sided with repressive Islamists who took control of the Iranian revolution and squashed the forces of secular democracy. open.substack.com/pub/craigung...
open.substack.com
They Built It. Now They Want to Bomb It.
Today's Iran crisis didn't start with just the mullahs. It started with a secret deal that Republican operatives made with them— a deal that changed history and may now lead to war.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
Admittedly, I had low priors for Bayes' theorem appearing in a Superbowl ad.🧪
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Mark Peifer (He, him) @peiferlabunc.bsky.social · 01/02/2026
Many of my science colleagues are not speaking out-I suspect due to the fear Phil notes, that they'll targeted for loss of funding. I hope they read this account of what happened at a faculty meeting at Frankfurt University in 1933 as the Nazi's took control 🧪 www.facinghistory.org/resource-lib...
Peter Drucker, an Austrian economist, was then a lecturer at Frankfurt University. Fearful of Hitler’s plans for Germany, he was prepared to leave the country but hoped that it would not be necessary to do so. The first Nazi-led faculty meeting at the university convinced him otherwise.

    Frankfurt was the first university the Nazis tackled, precisely because it was the most self-confidently liberal of major German universities, with a faculty that prided itself on its allegiance to scholarship, freedom of conscience, and democracy. The Nazis knew that control of Frankfurt University would mean control of German academia. And so did everyone at the university.

    Above all, Frankfurt had a science faculty distinguished both by its scholarship and by its liberal convictions; and outstanding among the Frankfurt scientists was a biochemist-physiologist of Nobel-Prize caliber and impeccable liberal credentials. When the appointment of a Nazi commissar was announced . . . and every teacher and graduate assistant at the university was summoned to a faculty meeting to hear this new master, everybody knew that a trial of strength was at hand. I had never before attended a faculty meeting, but I did attend this one.The new Nazi commissar wasted no time on the amenities. He immediately announced that Jews would be forbidden to enter university premises and would be dismissed without salary on March 15; this was something that no one had thought possible despite the Nazis’ loud antisemitism. Then he launched into a tirade of abuse, filth, and four-letter words such as had been heard rarely even in the barracks and never before in academia. . . . [He] pointed his finger at one department chairman after another and said, “You either do what I tell you or we’ll put you into a concentration camp.” There was silence when he finished; everybody waited for the distinguished biochemist-physiologist. The great liberal got up, cleared his throat, and said, “Very interesting, Mr. Commissar, and in some respects very illuminating: but one point I didn’t get too clearly. Will there be more money for research in physiology?"

The meeting broke up shortly thereafter with the commissar assuring the scholars that indeed there would be plenty of money for “racially pure science.” A few of the professors had the courage to walk out with their Jewish colleagues, but most kept a safe distance from these who only a few hours earlier had been their close friends. I went out sick unto death—and I knew that I was going to leave Germany within forty-eight hours.
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James Fallows @jfallows.bsky.social · 24/01/2026
To repeat: It is highly improbable that I would agree with Bill Kristol. I agree with him 100%. ICE has become the gestapo. They need to go. Just saw a Minneapolis protestor yelling at ICE, near shooting site, "We will not forgive you." Correct.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
In 1987 when the Norwegians picked Arias over Gronlund, Kogut, Wright & me for the Nobel Peace prize, we were disappointed but too slow-witted to threaten to start a war in response.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🧪I prepared some highly organized tutorial lessons for MDs on Bayesian differential diagnosis. They just cover the very basics but I hope somebody (not just MDs) finds them useful. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bayesian-d...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Bayesian diagnosis: tutorial lessons
just covering the most basic parts
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
🧪Based on overwhelming popular demand (one request) I've posted slides for the second half of my old physics/philosophy course. This part is not historical. It gets into the open-ended fallout from Bell's Inequality violations, etc. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/physicsphi...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Physics/Philosophy/History: some course slides
Does the Sun go around the Earth or Vice-Versa? Why is it dark at night?
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
🧪To their credit & my surprise, Science just posted my eletter demonstrating that the Pekar et al 2022 analysis implied a higher likelihodd for 1 Covid spillover rather than their claimed 2. Will it change the narrative? Dunno. eletters are at the end of the paper www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
science.org
The molecular epidemiology of multiple zoonotic origins of SARS-CoV-2
SARS-CoV-2 genomic diversity early in the COVID-19 pandemic points to emergence involving at least two zoonotic events.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 03/12/2025
🧪 I've posted some lecture slides from a course I taught many times at the intersection of physics/philosophy/history. I was not generally a good teacher but this turned into a good course. The 1st 14 lectures work to answer the 2 subtitle questions. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/physicsphi...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Physics/Philosophy/History: some course slides
Does the Sun go around the Earth or Vice-Versa? Why is it dark at night?
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 11/11/2025
Pekar 2022 was 1 of 2 key papers supporting a market origin of covid, via multiple spillovers. v3 of my arXiv fixing its math errors in a transparent way is now up, with a new histogram. tl;dr The answer from their model applied to their data is the opposite of their claim. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 23/10/2025
I recycle some old thoughts (2017) about Trump and the collapse of civilization. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/civilizati...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Civilization and Its Discontents
rerunning thoughts from 2017, with some new comments
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
The corrections to the Pekar 2022 Science paper claiming multiple SARS-CoV-2 introductions are factorizable and simple, using data contained in the paper and minimal assumptions. Their data and model imply that a single introduction was more likely. arxiv.org/abs/2510.01484
arxiv.org
Bayesian Re-Analysis of the Phylogenetic Topology of Early SARS-CoV-2 Case Sequences
A much-cited 2022 paper by Pekar et al. claimed that Bayesian analysis of the molecular phylogeny of early SARS-CoV-2 cases indicated that it was more likely that two successful introductions to human...
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Nigel Goldenfeld @nigelgoldenfeld.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
Very few PhD students finish within 4 years. But international students will need to do that if US proposed visa rules change go through. Sound reasonable to you? Fed register is accepting comments for next month. Details at the link & comment button www.federalregister.gov/documents/20...
federalregister.gov
Establishing a Fixed Time Period of Admission and an Extension of Stay Procedure for Nonimmigrant Academic Students, Exchange Visitors, and Representatives of Foreign Information Media
Unlike most nonimmigrant classifications, which are admitted for a fixed time period, aliens in the F (academic student), J (exchange visitor), and most I (representatives of foreign information media...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
With troops being employed for domestic suppression and war looming, I briefly escaped into nostalgic family memories. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/more-stori...
michaelweissman.substack.com
More stories from my dad
focus on Los Alamos.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 10/06/2025
College alumni join forces open.substack.com/pub/lastpaig...
open.substack.com
College alumni join forces
Fighting fascism with a unified voice
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 04/06/2025
This is urgent. We have until noon Sat. to get 10 k alumni signers for this amicus brief. Harvard may suck, but this is where the front lines are in the defense against Trump's attacks on science and education. Please sign if you're eligible. and circulate! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
docs.google.com
Harvard Alumni Amicus Brief Sign On
This is the sign-on form for an amicus curiae ("friend of the court") brief from Harvard alumni. The brief will be filed in support of Harvard, in its lawsuit challenging the U.S. government's unlawf...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
There was more interest than I expected in this niche substack answering Scott Alexander on Covid origins. It may be more generally useful for its brief discussion of how hierarchical Bayes is needed in messy practical problems. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/open-lette...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Open Letter to Scott Alexander
It's ok to change your mind
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 24/05/2025
tl;dr — this EO co-opts the language of open science to implement a system of political control wherein presidential appointees are given broad latitude to designate any number of reasonable scientific activities and inferences as scientific misconduct, and to penalize those involved accordingly.
whitehouse.gov
Restoring Gold Standard Science
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 7301 of title 5, United
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 22/05/2025
Harvard today, your institution tomorrow. It's all part of the Project 2025 plan to destroy high education in America. All leading US universities depend on federal funding and tuition dollars from international students. They severely curtailed the former. Now they're eliminating the latter.
The Trump administration on Thursday halted Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students, taking aim at a crucial funding source for the nation’s oldest and wealthiest college in a major escalation in the administration’s efforts to pressure the elite school to fall in line with the president’s agenda.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
More substack, this time recycling some old prison memories. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/prison-mem...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Prison Memories
another blast from the past
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
I posted a light, slightly pretentious piece over at the Stack. At least with some anecdotes. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/two-tales-...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Two tales from my dad
some old psychologies face new challenges
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 03/05/2025
Here's my summary of and comments on a Brookings/RAND meeting on pandemic prevention and preparedness. Some info on their views on Covid origins and thoughts on coping with the next pandemic. Complete with an explanatory cartoon and a quote from Trotsky. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/brookingsr...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Brookings/RAND on Covid
stepping outside naked in the Moscow winter
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Senator Bernie Sanders @sanders.senate.gov · 26/04/2025
This is what a rigged economy looks like: In the 1970s, CEOs made 27 times more than the average worker. In the 1980s, CEOs made 48 times more than the average worker. This decade, CEOs are making 354 times more than the average worker. That has got to change.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
I've just posted a response to Trump's new Covid announcements. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/trump-on-c...
michaelweissman.substack.com
Trump on Covid Lab Leak
the shit hits the fan
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
An update about various letters for Harvard alums and others to sign trying to get universities not to cave to Trump on free speech. There's a range of political slants but groups plan to work together. Here the link doesn't have to go in separately: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
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Carl T. Bergstrom @carlbergstrom.com · 07/04/2025
NIH slashes overheads, fires directors and staff, freezes funds, halts trials, interrupts research, stalls grant review, and terminates 100s of grants on infectious disease, vaccines, mRNA, DEI, LGBTQ health. NIH director, to Bari Weiss: Scientists are just upset because they didn't vote for Trump.
A lot of the things you just talked about in the outside, in the scientific community, I think part of it stems from the fact that so much of the scientific community is on the left and they didn’t vote for President Trump. And so almost any change made is going to end up causing, you know, anxiety.
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Josh Marshall @joshtpm.bsky.social · 02/04/2025
It's getting a lot of attn today. But even before today most of the country had very little idea of what has happened at NIH or through it the entire ecosystem of biomedical research in the US. Simply put, Musk, Kennedy & Trump exploded a bomb right in the middle of cancer cure research in the US.
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
There's a letter circulating among Harvard alums on defending free speech against Trump. links to sign the letter and a Crimson story here: michaelweissman.substack.com/p/campus-fre...
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
A group started today circulating a carefully worded letter from Harvard alums (all types) insisting that Harvard protect free speech, and not cave in to Trump. If you're interested, DM me for the text and email to sign. Other schools could do the same!
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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 01/03/2025
🧪On covid origins, Angus McCowan has just posted a preprint showing that the two-spillovers story on which the market account rested was based on an explicit mathematical error. Using the data and model of the orignal 2-spill paper, fixing the error reverses the conclusion. arxiv.org/html/2502.20...
arxiv.org
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