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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

🧪 My paper re-examining the market origin of Covid is now published, with some fixes from the pre-posted version. econjwatch.org/file_downloa...

econjwatch.org

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026

🧪 My revised discussion of the problems with the Worobey et al. 2022 Science article on Covid market origin is now published in final form. econjwatch.org/articles/an-... Goes with econjwatch.org/articles/an-... People who thought the Science articles were "dispositive" should have a look.

econjwatch.org

An Article in <em>Science</em> on Covid Origins Contains a Fundamental Error · Econ Journal Watch : Bayesian methods, likelihood ratios, epidemiology, random mutations, SARS-CoV-2 origins, statistics ...

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 16/08/2026

🧪 My critique of the Worobey 2022 Science paper on the Wuhan market will be published in Sept. The journal has posted the unformatted manuscript early due to the current interest in the topic. econjwatch.org/file_downloa...

econjwatch.org

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

Less than 1/20 ascertained early on. Probably much less. It could easily spread around town before getting a foothold in HSM. That's what happened later in Beijing even when the ascertainment rate was much higher. See e.g. www.nber.org/papers/w33428 or michaelweissman.substack.com/i/142625697/...

michaelweissman.substack.com

An Inconvenient Probability v5.11

Bayesian analysis of the probable origins of Covid. Quantifying "friggin' likely"

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

Amy is plain wrong about 2 separately spilled lineages. econjwatch.org/articles/an-... There are multiple ways in which the covid traits are more compatible with a lab leak than with zoonosis, particularly at the market. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/an-inconve...

michaelweissman.substack.com

An Inconvenient Probability v5.11

Bayesian analysis of the probable origins of Covid. Quantifying "friggin' likely"

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

LL is nearly irrelevant to public health measures once a pandemic is underway but it isn't nonsense. Now that research contributes significant risk of starting new pandemics, similar to zoonosis, it's important to be candid about it and take strong regulatory measures.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

We're in a small group here as the prosecutorial mobs and the orthodox followers battle it out.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

🧪 After enough online arguments I've picked up a set of epistemological peeves. It might be fun for others to join in with more. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/epistemolo...

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 07/07/2026

Kalshi has the D chances going up from 50% to 62% now that it's clear Platner will drop out. There are several potential candidates that can beat Collins in a D year.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

Based on the feedback from some virologists etc. I've modified the points to be less forgiving of Munster. Even inactivated viruses are supposed to be packed more carefully, just in case. And it didn't help that he then lied to Customs, saying that they were commercial kits.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

🧪 @mark-ungrin.bsky.social I put up a short blog about the Munster/Kew inactivated Mpox business, trying to disentangle some issues that got lumped together. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/munster-kw...

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Patrick McCann @pjmccann3.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Scientists shouldn’t censor scientists especially at a scientific meeting where the free exchange of ideas is supposed to happen regardless of political content. MAHA will literally kill people. Talking about it can save lives. Science does not exist in isolation from politics. #MedSky 🧪

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Dr. Princess Vimentin PhD | Cancer Biologist @princess-vimentin.bsky.social · 06/06/2026

Police pushed out a couple of the attendees at a diabetes scientific meeting. The crime: Passing out printouts of a recent publication calling out the administration for destroying our research infrastructure. The right to free speech was infringed upon. Censorship is real. We have to stand up.

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Wolf Hour @wolfhour.bsky.social · 29/05/2026

(cartoon Steve Sack) #politics

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

A good short point is that their recommendations were based on an estimate of how many fatalities would occur that was low by about a factor of 50.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 10/05/2026

He mentions only one medical fact and gets it wrong. The standard in the literature is that infectiousness starts about 48 hrs before symptoms. He says only when symptomatic.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

I agree that we better not be too purist about people's past mistakes. Otherwise we'd all be out of business.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 09/05/2026

Good editorial. Unfortunately Thorp chose short-term expediency over scientific integrity on investigating Covid origins. That same approach is now coming back to bite us from the other political direction. Your path of simple honesty is the only one consistent with science.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 05/05/2026

In preparation for Bhattacharya's appearance I'd written up some notes prompted by his NYT interview. I apologize for the unedited shrill tone, but the facts are correct. michaelweissman.substack.com/p/bhattachar...

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Kat Abughazaleh @katmabu.bsky.social · 01/05/2026

May Day is one day. Solidarity is every day. After today's action, the work doesn’t stop. When workers strike, ask for support. Show up, don’t cross picket lines, and make it real by backing labor actions in your daily choices.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

But in each of those polls Mills did worse in the general than Platner. So her dropping out shouldn't be the occasion for increasing pessimism.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

No guarantees, but your pessimistic certainty is unfounded.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 28/04/2026

On the issue of bias in test-negative controls, the excuse Bhattacharya gave for censoring the Covid vax efficacy MMWR paper, see pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/39567531/ The main bias is rarely as large as 8% and tends to underestimate efficacy. A more general treatment: pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33831173/

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 26/04/2026

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Good thing that there's no politics involved in decisions on what weapons to make or how to regulate AI or whether to have manned space programs. Unlike computing climate predictions or estimating vax efficacy. JFC.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

ps On the test-negative vax evaluation, apparently it's rare for it to be off by more than 10% compared to more complete controls. No quantitative excuse for the RFK-driven censorship.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

She didn't. Not exactly a surprise.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Word on the street is that test-negative estimate for flu VE is typically within better than 10% of estimates with more sophisticated adjustments using more complete data. Maybe 20% in a really unusual case. No excuse for censoring the Covid estimate.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 25/04/2026

Excellent primer. I'mgoing to check with a vaccine evaluation expert to get realistic estimates of residual confounding. I bet it won't be nearly big enough to justify dropping the result.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

If anybody is still on this thread, yes, definitely vote for the primary winner in the general.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

I certainly will. But they aren't on this thread.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

He's got a pretty detailed platform up www.grahamforsenate.com that consists of strong Democratic positions.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Yes, stupid article. But winning that seat is essential regardless of whether Mills or Platner is the candidate.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

Yeah, not the ideal candidate. But the issue here is whether to vote for the primary winner in the general. I think the consequences of winning or losing the general are enormous.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

I was not here trying to persuade strong opponents of Platner to vote for him in the primary. I'm arguing that just as progressives often have to bite the bullet and vote D in the general so should Mills supporters.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

A lot of those things are reasons one could dislike him but what counts in the Senate is which way the Senators vote. Collins votes to keep the Senate under R control, which means approving judges, cabinet members, the whole thing.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

I'm not trying to persuade you to vote for him in the primary. I'm responding to Orent's saying she would vote R in the general. That's a vote for Trump's Supreme Court nominees.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 24/04/2026

He's been running a campaign with many chances to misspeak, done many interviews. He's specifically repudiated the crap that he used to put out. It's possible that everything he's said is false, but that sounds unlikely.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

People change, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse. I think there's strong evidence Platner has changed for the better. He also polls better than Mills. The D party is even more underwater than the Rs. Having more Alitos and Thomases hurts a lot more than our internal feelings.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

That's the same argument that's used, perhaps with more justification (ethnic cleansing with genocidal features), for kids on the left to not vote for mainstream Ds. Consequences matter to others, so they should matter to our souls.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

But that could keep R control of the Senate -> lifetime Supreme Court appointments, etc. We've got to keep our hands on that plow.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 23/04/2026

The discussion is specifically about the number of *successful* introductions. The initial exposure is enough different from ordinary transmission (under either Z or L) that one cannot extrapolate to estimates of unsuccessful ones,

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

Ref. A wasn't crazy about my "Informal Reflections" but the editor liked it and ref B had no problem. Jamie Robins seemed to particularly like it. People could read the paper and draw their own informal reflections. You say "the likes of Alina and zeynep" as if it were a bad thing.

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

I'm interested in your response to the paper's content, describing how to fix a basic error in statistical logic. econjwatch.org/articles/an-... For a less-technical summary, here's the interview econjwatch.org/podcast/mich... with Jamie Robins (www.rousseeuwprize.org/2022)

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Michael Weissman @mbweissman.bsky.social · 20/04/2026

People have bad intuitions for what happens when something flies off a merry-go-round, poor intuitions for conservation laws, etc.

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