iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 47m

My new goal is to have the prospect list done prior to the lockout and this Phillies system is really testing me to find 50 guys I like. You may think I am kidding, but the initial list of 50 has 10 guys who played in the DSL this year.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 1h

The thing about Kerr is that we was older and had barely pitched, but underlying stuff numbers say in particular his fastball is quite good. Lefty throwing mid 90s who dropped his armslot post injury and got a better fastball out of it. One of those guys that looks like a scrub but isn't.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 1h

We want from starting pitching matchups to Royals bullpenning, to the Nationals 2019, to 2026 G7 Yamamoto. Teams are trying to get the ball in their best pitcher's hands more frequently. It is because every time a team shows a crack hitters tend to break things open.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 1h

I think about this a lot from the flip side. The postseason has the concentrate amount of pitching of the entire season and is obscene, but also it is what is required to keep hitting in check. The circle of trust for postseason pitching is tiny and shrinking constantly to try and stay ahead.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 8h

Steve reporting that Estibenzon Jimenez has re-signed with the Phillies, we was slated to be a MiLB FA. He served as Reading’s closer during their championship run, but has more of a AAAA MLB projection. Good guy to keep in the org.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 20h

If the Dodgers had just benched Ohtani where would they be in this series?

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

I think you can say 1 more lock if that lock is a true late inning lefty, and then you leave some flexibility, especially since Shugart if fine and out of options and should be in competition for a spot. You need to bolster those flexible options, but they needed multi LHPs to start with.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

It is really tricky to move him without an alternative in hand

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

I am worried about Miller at SS after the back stuff, but Rincon is a legitimate SS defender. I think Rincon has the glove where I don't think he will be a better overall player than what Turner can be, but the glove is good enough to be the guy to move Turner off the position defensively.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Bryan Rincon is a legitimate shortstop and should start the year in AAA as well. So there is some amount of "not quite ready" going on

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

The shortstop market sucks, in theory you have two SS type prospects who are not far off. I would have like to have seen them make a bold change, but also I don't really think Mauricio Dubon is that good and trading more for a SS right now feels dumb

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Also they saw the clubhouse be held together by Rob Thomson and decided that they never wanted to have that kind of thing happen again.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Mayza on a 1 year deal is fine. Mattingly is going to attempt to murder him, but Mayza is a perfectly functional major league lefty reliever

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Reposted by Matt Winkelman

🪩 Kiri 🪩 @kirio.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

Plenty has been said about Mattingly, which is fair, but the Phillies multi-year situationship with Bobby Dickerson is also deeply unserious. Delete that man's number and let him go be happy with some other team.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 15/10/2026

I do think part 1 and part 3 are connected because much of the real problem is that most of the hitters are old and stubborn or just not that good.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Multiple things can be true at once. I don’t think Kevin Long is the problem. I think moving on is probably the right choice. I don’t trust anything in the front office’s hitting philosophy (player acquisition and MiLB dev) that makes me optimistic about who they hire next.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I would say I had not thought of Malquin in a while, but I was adding my 2013 and 2014 rankings to a tracker, and there he is 28th behind Drew Anderson (who I always believed in) on the 2014 list.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

The Phillies extended Grady Sizemore! (sorry Liz)

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I am pretty sure I saw him on a Venezuelan Winter League roster recently.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

No one here ranked Kelly Dugan as the 5th prospect in the system at one point, because that would have been really dumb.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

The competitors are Andrew Knapp, Tyler Goeddel, and Cody Asche. It might be Asche (he put up a disastrous -0.9 WAR in 19 games post Phillies with the White Sox)

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

It depends on where you put your PA cutoff. By Fangraphs Williams is at -0.3 in 903 PA, if you drop the threshold to 200 PAs you get 7 guys worse: Sizemore (-0.5), Nix (-0.5), Young (-0.7), Saunders (-0.7), Francoeur (-0.7), Kemp (-1.0), and Goeddel (-1.1)

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

This goes for the rebuild side too. You find little joys like believing in 2017 Aaron Altherr, but also think back on that sentiment and think about tying your hopes and dreams to that.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I would say going out and hiring some bench coach who has never done this would be "creative" but I don't know if that actually is good. I would say some of their moves have been "creative", but dumb like Luis Arraez and moving the team around for a mediocre hitter at high cost.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I once again think people use the word "creative" when they actually mean the word "smart" or "winning". Re-hiring Mattingly isn't bad because it is lazy or obvious, it is bad because he has proven to be a bad manager. Moves don't need to be fancy, they can be boring, they just have to be good moves

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I would not say I am particularly high on the Wisconsin beer scene, it still is a lot of breweries making a bunch of mediocre versions of styles I don't care about. I will make my periodic plug for Working Draft in Madison, a bunch of old world styles and more west coast/american IPAs

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

Their fruit beers and sours are always excellent. This year's Staghorn (Octoberfest) has been really good. Of their standard, Two Women and Moon Man are great (the Belgian Red is year round but I put that in the fruit/sour category).

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

As someone who grew up outside Philly and has lived in Wisconsin for over a decade, this is extremely my beat. The only Yuengling I have enjoyed in the last 10 years came in a 30+ oz glass after a 80 hour work week. Spotted Cow is a totally fine beer, and we all know New Glarus makes better beers.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I can’t tell if the actual hire, or just how they got to it, makes me more depressed

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

There are ways you could in theory correct his behavior with the bullpen, they didn’t while it happened last year, but generally I am going to be opposed to most hires that require that you have a minder to prevent the guy you hired from fucking up in the ways you knew about when you hired them

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 14/10/2026

I don’t have a better immediate candidate, but I am not paid lots of money to know that. They are, and apparently they only could come up with sticking with the GM’s dad who murdered most of the bullpen and was mostly a terrible tactician.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

I don't know if he is playing, but I saw Cesar Hernandez was in camp with someone and learned that he is nearly exactly the same age as me. It is amazing that guys just keep playing

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Villavicencio is leading off and Renteria is batting third. In another game, old friend Simon Muzziotti is in RF for Tiburones de La Guaira. Deep cut old friend Herlis Rodriguez is in CF for Caribes de Anzoategui

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

SS Juan Villavicencio, OF Francisco Renteria, and RHP Giussepe Velasquez are on the opening day roster for Aguilas del Zulia. They join former Phillies legends Dylan Covey and Ali Castillo

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Velocity (sitting 98 not 96), command (even just low hanging reduce uncompetitive pitches), and breaking balls are the areas of improvement. I wonder if the curve goes and we see more sweepers to lefties like Luzardo did. Throwing the slider/cutter even harder also probably would help.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Fair, I still think there is big ceiling, but it requires them doing a Jesus Luzardo jump to him, but can they actually do that. I think he is going to be infuriating because of the flashes

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

I am working on my Andrew Painter recap and I can’t help but feel that given everything else going on the hype has wildly overcorrected based on three innings

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

They are actually going to retain Don Mattingly after watching him manage this team? Just a front office that is completely out of ideas and unable to expand their circle of people they know.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

You definitely know more, but it still feels like too many rely on the scarcity and prestige of working in sports over "how do we make this a good job"

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

The fact that you wrote that 12 years ago and it isn't a fundamental part of how we analyze front offices and we still have things like the Mets posting jobs with ridiculously low salaries is such an indictment of the industry and those that cover it in the mainstream

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

I can’t speak to compensation, but they have not been good at hiring, retaining, and growing off the field talent.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

Absolutely perfect guy, and this plus “a healthy Ohtani is the best FA any team could add” is going to power us through this bleak winter.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

No one will make this argument, but it is the correct one. You should pay your off the field personnel more and treat that part like a real business trying to retain and grow talent in a positive environment

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

What washed reliever do they sign right before the lockout that triggers this take this time (even if they lose to the Brewers)?

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

“Best run” as in they have good front offices, coaching, and development as in they are “well run” businesses

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

It won’t be the takeaway, but the 4 remaining teams are 4 of the best run teams in baseball. You can say 3 of them are that way to make up for being cheap, but that doesn’t mean they aren’t good at this. Consequently all would likely dominate a capped version of the sport.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 13/10/2026

If Ohtani is just unplayablely hurt the Dodgers lineup starts to look a lot more old and creaky. The Dodgers in general have made some questionable moves and the Brewers are good at this team building thing.

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

The modern division structure is an immense advantage to small market teams. It is also why an owner actually caring in Chicago could build a dynasty

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Matt Winkelman @mattwinkelman.bsky.social · 11/10/2026

My continued takeaway is that the AL was a joke league this year

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