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A hopefully useful (free) opportunity to hear from the statisticians who create our crime statistics on what they're working on. www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/annual-cri...

eventbrite.co.uk

Annual Crime and Justice Statistics Forum 2026

Join us for the fifth annual crime and justice statistics forum, where we'll give updates across our work on UK crime statistics.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 30/09/2026

This huge replication (🇺🇸) of the 'Koper curve' on how long hotspot patrols should last reinforces the original findings: patrols are effective once cops are in a hotspot for 15 mins, after which staying in that area has no extra crime-prevention effect. doi.org/10.1111/1745...

doi.org

https://doi.org/10.1111/1745-9133.70039

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 29/09/2026

Useful estimates in this paper of how long it takes for crimes of different types of be reported and recorded (🇺🇸), i.e. how long it takes for crime data to be 'stable' enough for research and analysis. For most types, >90% are reported within 14 days. doi.org/10.1080/0741...

doi.org

Browse all journals

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Margot Finn @eicathomefinn.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

'The Westminster government’s contribution to funding domestic undergraduates studying in England fell in real terms from £8.9 billion in 2012-13 to just £3.3bn in 2024-25, a drop of more than 60 per cent, an analysis has found.'

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 28/09/2026

This paper finds the 'iron rule' that most crimes happen in a small number of places applies equally in an African city (Abuja, 🇳🇬) and when measured using data from a door-to-door survey rather than police data (which is limited by under-reporting). doi.org/10.1057/s413...

doi.org

Measuring crime concentration without police data: evidence from Suburban Abuja, Nigeria - Crime Prevention and Community Safety

This study examines crime in suburban Abuja, Nigeria, to assess whether the patterns of crime concentration commonly identified in developed contexts are also evident in an understudied, data-poor…

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 25/09/2026

Previous research has found sending offenders a letter can have a surprisingly big effect on behaviour, but this paper (🇳🇱) found that didn't work to prevent people texting while driving: the letter in this case had no effect on the chance of reoffending. doi.org/10.1080/1561...

doi.org

The effect of a procedural justice and deterrence-based letter on recidivism for smartphone use while driving in the Netherlands: a randomized controlled trial

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a Dutch police intervention conducted in March 2025 targeting drivers sanctioned for using a smartphone in traffic. As part of the intervention, individual...

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 24/09/2026

This paper (🇨🇱) finds more pedestrians (who are both 'eyes on the street' who might protect against crime, and potential targets of it) doesn't lead to any increase in theft until a critical crowd density is reached, after which theft rises sharply. doi.org/10.21428/cb6...

doi.org

Eyes on the Street, Threshold Dynamics, and Property Crime

Why do crowded streets sometimes deter crime and sometimes attract it? Pedestrian volume can reduce crime through informal surveillance (“eyes on the street”) or raise it by expanding anonymity and…

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 24/09/2026

If you’re an emergency service that’s still encouraging people to use What3Words to locate themselves in an emergency, you might want to consider how likely it is the service will still be running given it’s run by a private company that loses millions every year.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 24/09/2026

No need to apologise – everyone’s got to eat!

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 17/09/2026

I was at the side at the Hyde Park gig and the support act were treated similarly (they weren’t great). I vividly remember the arcs of all the bottles, etc. being thrown over the heads of the posh section in front, onto the stage. That band must have gotten good at dodging by the end of the tour!

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 15/09/2026

Ah, I see! That makes a lot more sense now. Although I doubt many people visiting the tourist information office would understand the reference!

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 14/09/2026

I would have been cheaper (although not very much) and obviously faster to fly. But I dislike flying, despise airports, and try to avoid the environmental impact of short haul air travel when possible. Plus, I can get lots of reading/writing work done on a train.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 14/09/2026

Home! Well, St Pancras Station, at any rate.

Large ornate Dent clock mounted high on the glass-and-iron façade inside St Pancras International station, London, glowing in warm evening sunlight. Below it, part of Tracey Emin’s bright pink neon artwork I Want My Time With You stretches across the station concourse.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 14/09/2026

Seems like there’s some London over there on the left, too …

Large blue railway sign inside Brussels Midi/Zuid station pointing right towards platforms 1–2 for trains to London. The sign reads “Voies Sporen 1–2” above a train symbol, with “London” beside a British flag and a large white arrow pointing right. A Pret café is visible to the left of the sign.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 14/09/2026

I will be very glad if I can still go hiking at that age. But probably not in that outfit …

A busy railway platform, with passengers waiting beside the tracks. In the centre, a man walks along the platform using two walking poles, wearing traditional Alpine-style clothing: a green felt hat with a feather, brown jacket and knee-length leather breeches, dark green knee-high socks and black shoes, with a large green backpack. Another passenger using walking poles walks ahead on the right. Railway tracks, overhead wires and station signs stretch into the distance.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

Apparently the local tourism slogan is “Cologne is a feeling”. But they don’t specify *which* feeling, which seems like they should have thought more about the potential for memes.

View through the window of a brightly lit Cologne gift shop, with colourful bear-shaped displays and souvenirs inside. Large lettering across the glass reads “Köln ist ein Gefühl”, meaning “Cologne is a feeling”.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

Underway again, this time from the colossal and still shiny Berlin Hauptbahnhof.

Interior of Berlin Hauptbahnhof, looking across the station’s vast multi-level atrium beneath a curved glass-and-steel roof. Escalators criss-cross between several floors, with shops, platforms, signs and a few passengers visible throughout.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

Wow, that sounds amazing! Is that every year, do you know?

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

I feel this sign raises more questions than it answers. (I am also fairly certain the sign – like the pockets of women’s jeans – is a lie.)

Street-level view of a dark shopfront with large outlined lettering prominently reading “NOT A GALLERY” above the windows. Pink curtains cover the wide windows, and a leafy tree stands on the pavement outside.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

One of the reasons I like Berlin so much is that it has produced so much amazing photography (although that’s partly because it’s experienced far too much history).

Black-and-white photograph of a crowded street scene in Berlin. In the foreground, a moustached man holds several East German banknotes aloft in one hand while clutching a wallet or document holder in the other. A group of people gathers closely around him, with city buildings visible in the background.

Black-and-white photograph of a busy fair or market surrounded by large apartment blocks. An enormous inflatable Mickey Mouse balloon dominates the left foreground, while a monumental sculpture of Lenin carrying a huge slab rises above the stalls and crowd on the right.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

This weekend is open house weekend in Berlin (and in London, too!). But unfortunately everyone else knows that, as well, so the queues are pretty long.

A long queue of people waits outside the entrance to Berlin’s Philharmonie beneath an overcast sky. The distinctive golden, tent-like concert hall rises behind them, with its angular peak and patterned façade, while a broad white canopy covers the entrance.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

The Berlin Police are definitely right that you’ll see more aspects of a city policing it than in any other way. But – given the aspects of cities that police see most – I’m not completely sure I would use it as a recruitment slogan. (I do like the play on the 110 police emergency number, though!)

Close-up of the side of a white-and-blue Berlin police van. Large German text on the blue stripe reads “POLIZEI” and “NIEMAND BIETET MEHR BERLIN” (“Nobody offers more Berlin”). A small yellow sticker reads “110 PROZENT BERLIN” (“110 percent Berlin”), and a QR code appears at the rear. Buildings and trees are reflected in the van’s dark windows.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 13/09/2026

After a night in the shadow of Berlin’s tallest building, I’ve now got a few hours to check out what’s new in the city.

Low-angle view looking straight up at Berlin’s Fernsehturm (TV Tower), showing the underside of its spherical observation deck and red-and-white antenna against an overcast grey sky.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

If the Left party doesn’t win the upcoming elections here, they could maybe do well with this slogan in Birmingham?

A large white political campaign placard secured to a lamppost, photographed at an angle. In bold orange and purple lettering it reads in German: “Müll chaos beenden. Die Linke. Berlin bezahlbar machen.” In English: “End the rubbish chaos. The Left. Make Berlin affordable.”

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

Some might say it sends a message that the flagship train between Germany’s capital and the capital of one of its most important neighbours calls only at a station serving a suburban shopping centre rather than the big shiny main station in the government quarter. 🤨 Anyway, willkommen in Berlin.

Close-up of a blue “Berlin Gesundbrunnen” station sign beneath a large illuminated Deutsche Bahn clock, with “Nordkreuz” shown below. The station’s metal roof and anti-bird spikes are visible in the background.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

A very relaxed atmosphere on the Berlin–Warszawa Express.

A small golden-coloured dog lies stretched out in the aisle of a train carriage, resting its head on the floor between rows of blue seats. Passengers’ legs and bags frame the dog on either side.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

This has been the view for at least the last hour. The North European Plain is well named. On the other hand, if you’ve sent me an email at any point in the past 3 weeks and not yet had a reply, you’ll be getting one shortly.

A blurred view from a moving train across flat green fields beneath a wide blue sky filled with sunlit clouds, with warm late-afternoon light breaking through on the horizon.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

I do! I don’t leave Berlin until tomorrow afternoon and it’s open monuments weekend, so I’m hoping to pack in some interesting sights tomorrow. Hope you have a good journey back, too.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

When I was about 14 I went on a school trip to northern France. I commented to a teacher that it was very flat, so she explained that the landscape was pretty similar all the way to Moscow, which was partly why there had been so many east–west invasions throughout history. Anyway:

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

Although apparently the protest was only until lunchtime, since we’re now blasting through one crossing after another. Fortunately all the car drivers behind the various crossing barriers have decided to choose life.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

Not a great start: all Poland’s train drivers are slowing to 10kph at every level crossing to protest the high number of car drivers who drive around level-crossing barriers (recently leading to a fatal rail crash). So every train in Poland is delayed. Please don’t drive around crossing barriers. 🤦‍♂️

View across railway tracks to a busy platform at Warsaw Central Station, where groups of passengers with luggage wait beneath bright overhead lights. A silver train stands behind them, framed by large blue-grey concrete columns and the station’s high industrial ceiling.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

Time for a final pastry before departure. Why isn’t Poland famous the world over for its delicious pastries?

Close-up of a bakery display filled with elaborate pastries behind glass. Rows of glossy laminated pastries are topped with raspberries, blueberries, cream and crumb, alongside a long iced cinnamon pastry and round cakes decorated with berries and dried flower petals.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 12/09/2026

Having had a great week at #EuroCrim2026 catching up with colleagues and their research, it’s time to head home. But fortunately not by plane! Should be an easy and simple train journey with only (!) 3 changes: Berlin, Cologne and Brussels. As long as Deutsche Bahn plays ball. 😬 Wish me luck! 🧵

View looking up an escalator inside a tunnel with curved, highly reflective metal walls and ceiling. The escalator is inside a Warsaw metro station. The mirrored surfaces distort and repeat the lights, escalators and passengers, creating a tunnel-like effect. Several people ride upwards towards a bright, glass-roofed opening at the top.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 07/09/2026

Large survey finds police in England and Wales say “ill-fitting, inconsistent or low-quality uniforms [undermine] confidence, pride and their ability to present a professional image”. I doubt 46 forces each having slightly different uniforms helps. doi.org/10.1093/bjc/...

doi.org

Negotiating (un)professionalism in police uniforms: A Corpus-Assisted Critical Discourse Analysis of officers’ and staff experiences

Abstract. This article examines how police officers and staff understand police uniforms as shaping professionalism, internal legitimacy and the public per

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 06/09/2026

I’m in Bulgaria right now and walked down a Uilyam Gladston Street yesterday. Quite a few cities have them and he’s quite a well known name. Bulgarians are much, much less keen on Churchill, though!

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 05/09/2026

The homicide rate now is substantially lower than it was in the 1990s. The crime drop wasn’t just about residential burglary. bsky.app/profile/matt...

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Reposted by Matt Ashby

Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 02/09/2026

Young Black men are over-represented among homicide offenders, but the typical homicide offender in England and Wales is an unemployed White man in his 20s who’s known to the victim (either as a partner/relative or friend/acquaintance) and has drug/alcohol issues. lesscrime.info/post/homicid...

lesscrime.info

Homicide in England and Wales, Part 3: Homicide offenders – Matt Ashby

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 02/09/2026

lesscrime.info

Homicide in England and Wales, Part 3: Homicide offenders – Matt Ashby

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 02/09/2026

I don’t know what it’s like in other bits of academia, but sadly there are lots of social-science academics who seem more concerned about status than about actually discovering what’s true about the thing their subject studies and what’s not.

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Reposted by Matt Ashby

Tim Bale @timbale.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

Ethnonationalism, to put it politely. (Source: www.kcl.ac.uk/news/public-...)

Graph showing: The public wrongly assume most people convicted of homicide are from an ethnic minority. In fact, 64% are white – but the public's median guess is just 45%. Conversely, they overestimate the ethnic-minority share, putting it at 55% when the reality is 35%.
And Reform UK supporters are most wide of the mark on both measures, guessing just 30% of homicide convicts are white and as many as 70% are from an ethnic minority.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 31/08/2026

A lovely week cycling round Lake Constance (🇩🇪🇨🇭🇦🇹) in glorious sunshine. 😊

Sunset over Lake Constance, with calm water reflecting a pink and orange sky. A dark silhouette of trees and a small harbour extends into the lake, with low hills visible on the distant shore.

Moonlight over Lake Constance at dusk. A bright moon hangs above dark mountains on the opposite shore, casting a long silver reflection across the deep-blue water.

Colourful pumpkins and gourds beside Lake Constance. Wooden crates filled with orange, yellow, green and white pumpkins sit in front of a lush green field and hillside under a bright blue sky.

The Rhine Falls in Switzerland, with white water rushing over broad rocky falls and around large rocks in the foreground. A large historic building stands on the wooded hillside above the falls.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 22/08/2026

Is that true only if you just count flows into Texas state prisons, or also including people who serve sentences (post conviction) in state or local jails? If it only includes flows into prisons (which is typically only for more serious felonies) I’m not sure it’s a fair comparison.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 22/08/2026

Is that right? The Prison Policy Initiative has the incarceration rate in Texas as 750 per 100k, whereas the House of Commons Library has the rate for England as 170 per 100k. On raw numbers: 248k in TX vs 88k here. www.prisonpolicy.org/profiles/TX.... commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-bri...

prisonpolicy.org

Texas profile

Prison growth, prison size, and racial disparity data on incarceration in Texas

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 22/08/2026

Wait, how did the turtles get there?

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 22/08/2026

There would probably still have been some reputational damage to the universities involved, but not on the scale we’ve seen over the past few weeks. The instinct to hush things up (which is very widespread in university management) is a really damaging one.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 22/08/2026

For example if the early investigations by universities had been at least as thorough as the later ones by a racist blogger, at worst (from his point of view) Arday would have been quietly dismissed (although probably still with some media interest) and could have rebuilt his life.

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Matt Ashby @mattashby.com · 22/08/2026

It seems to me that at every stage, organisations trying to make questions about academic misconduct quietly go away actually ended up making the situation much more public and damaging. That’s not a novel observation, of course, but it’s striking how many organisations hadn’t learned that lesson.

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