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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Perhaps Perhaps also the only way of responding to the asymmetrical escalation

Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

We have recently seen a lot of gun intercepts videos, new, faster Shahed derivatives are actually easier to shoot down for a fighter jets than earlier piston variants as they fly closer (in the range of about 240–320 kt depending on variant) to practical loiter speed of fighters 1/2

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Well, we (NATO) define cruise missile as a "a guided missile with aerofoil wing surfaces" and more specifically (INF definition) as an "unmanned, self-propelled vehicle that sustains flight through the use of aerodynamic lift over most of its flight path" 1979 ATCM programme shared for no reason :)

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🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

❗️Volunteers from Taiwan, South Korea, China and Japan in the Armed Forces of Ukraine

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

From the footage I saw - this cruise missile strike was clearly planned as a strike against a soft target with an inside explosion in the pavilion that triggers an internal fire by exploiting the chimney effect. Disgusting terror attack and a war crime

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Re Perimeter backup channel article - it is nice to see some of the photographs (even though they have long been known to the specialist community), but otherwise the article really doesn’t bring anything new to the table. Incidentally, the system has never been deactivated,... 1/6

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Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 16/09/2026

“Russian strategists threaten civilian economic and cultural sites with the aim of brutalizing European populations into surrender. Russian targeting of churches and hospitals in Ukraine with dual-capable missiles is meant to foreshadow a similar fate for NATO populations.”

liberalcurrents.com

Nuclear Arms and the New Free World

The free world no longer has the luxury of regarding nuclear deterrence like a snow globe on a shelf.

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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

It lives! A huge thank you to the friends and colleagues who helped refine this, and who have been arguing with me about the core premise for years now. Thank you also to the LC editorial staff for giving this a venue and for a smooth and very positive editing process. What a treat to write for.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

We are now doing Corbett sea denial with a rigid Lanchester-square-law thinking but this time applied to tech in a Soviet Kursk defence way, I see. Someone has to justify the creation of the ADA2 abbreviation I guess (these cannot even be considered that strictly speaking😭)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

The growing number of Russian officials coming to the conclusion equates SVR operation. Everyone should just ignore this (won’t happen I know). If it’s (in any way) real it looks very different (incl the communication of western entities)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Re Baltic exercises-yes, it is signaling, nothing unprecedented in terms of the activities per se but definitely coupled w direct strategic messaging. I’m somewhat concerned that our restraint may have led us to a point where these traditional tools prove insufficient, but that is another discussion

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George William Herbert @georgewherbert.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

This is being widely called a war crime by the BlueSky community but the apparent lack of anything like a legitimate target nearby strongly suggests that this was a guidance failure in the JDAM guided bomb. These are not long distance attack weapons, JDAM are dropped from crewed aircraft.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The low-pass itself is one thing and the fact is that they’ve been performing similar manoeuvres for years (and BA are very good at that). The actual problem is that that the F-18 clearly crossed the display line and flew out of the box. Which is strictly prohibited for a reason.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

FT for some reason loves to write about this every two or three months even though it’s a well known fact. Do the Western partners provide ELINT, SIGINT and IMINT (and HUMINT)? Sure, what’s surprising. Can Ukraine plan (and execute) raids independently? Yes it absolutely can and sometimes also does

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Lockheed’s response to competition in the European market (the Freya system being developed by a consortium led by Fire Point) and to new US’s requirements and NATO CTs (the 2025 CTs represent a 400% increase in AMD requirements compared to 2024 and have been further increased at the Ankara summit).

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Larry the Cat @number10cat.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Updated my profile. Again.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Some thoughts on recent Iranian strikes Many of these targets are still TSSTs (as defined), just not TCTs, given the pre-launch procedures they use, it is pretty obvious that RU supplied an external ISR and situational-awareness layer that Iran integrated into a streamlined F2T2EA process. 1/3

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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Some gravity bombs deliverable by max 12 aircraft is not a credible first-use warfighting capability.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

It’s "realism" for me but not for thee It’s funny because he’s author of “coalition-based denial”,yet he attacks the very idea of transactional alliances. Y’know when a patron lacks credibility,even poses a threat and considers coalitions completely dispensable,middle powers begin to hedge SURPRISE

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It’s not a single programme. It is an initiative that establishes a political and requirements-setting coalition: common operational requirements (incl C3), technical working groups, governance, data exchange and a roadmap toward initial capability (viewed comprehensively). It follows on from... 1/2

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It’s gonna have some interesting capabilities, kinematics-wise. If my calculations are at least partially correct it will be in the similar ballpark as PAC-3 CRI, that is effective intercept altitude 12–18 km, 30-38km effective slant reach, 1.25–1.55 km/s terminal etc

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Cross-post from twitter I recently re-read this text (and some others from the US 1980s debate),so I thought it was worth sharing as it offers a very interesting insight into US strategic thought in the 80s re emerging tripolar system A little🧵-Todd R. Starbuck’s China and the Great Power Balance

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Marlène Aviation @aviationmarlene.bsky.social · 11/07/2026

A ‘Mirage III.C’ in flight in the early 1960s. The III.C variant was designed for fighter and interceptor roles. It was a truly magnificent aircraft. © Ecpad

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auonsson @auonsson.bsky.social · 10/07/2026

Ukraine drone crews have been hammering Russia's fuel tankers last 4 nights in Azov Sea, Crimea. Claimed hits are now around 40 ships. Satellite data support this. Count has gone from around 90 to 40. Of course, some might have fled but gone they are.

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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

Maybe NATO should just not have summits for 2027 and 2028. Low-key constructive work to transfer more responsibility to Europe can continue without giving Trump a platform to beat up on allies and undermine deterrence further.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 09/04/2026

❗️EU authorities demand urgent explanations from Hungary after leaked recordings reveal FM Szijjarto shared internal EU and national discussions with Russia between 2023 and 2025. Lawmakers are also pushing to restrict access to sensitive information for pro-Russian officials within EU institutions.

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William Alberque @walberque.bsky.social · 09/04/2026

On 4 March, French Defence Minister Vautrin dropped quite the bomb in an interview with Etienne Ouvrier of Le Dauphine regarding French stocks of HEU and plutonium: France has enough recoverable material from dismantled warheads for new warheads. 1/8 www.ledauphine.com/defense-guer...

ledauphine.com

Interview. Catherine Vautrin, ministre des Armées : « Les services de renseignement français sont en alerte maximale »

La ministre des Armées Catherine Vautrin aborde les sujets d’une actualité brûlante, dans un entretien accordé au groupe EBRA, auquel appartient votre journal.

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brasidas @brasidas.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Yeah, when pro-Israel voices say that the US military commits war crimes just like the IDF, I want to throw hands.

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John Ridge 🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 @johnridge.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Meanwhile, the USAF isn’t procuring MAWS for F-15EX

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

2 things 1 Everyone should calm down, the US is not going to nuke Tehran. 2 Trump’s genocidal rhetoric is absolutely repugnant and should be instantly condemned in any decent society, regardless of politics, and it is pathetic and a sign of the times that this man is president

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 07/04/2026

Few words on NATO nuclear deterrence by Jim Stokes (frmr NATO Director of Nuclear Policy) and Yanitsa Dyakova (NATO Nuclear Policy) www.jwc.nato.int/wp-content/u...

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 21/03/2026

As for the possible Qaem payload- Iranians have some experience with graphite-filled carbon-phenolic (C-Ph) composites (for nozzles, the technology for TPS is fairly similar in that regard) even though they have never tested RVs at such ranges. Not speaking about the accuracy, likely horrible

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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

Trilateral/3-body deterrence dynamics are spooky and might be intrinsically unstable. Guess we are going to find out!

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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

I'm gonna say it: Bob is at least directionally right even if I do not agree on all of his prescriptions. "We build, they build. We stop, they build" is back on the menu. It takes two to arms race, but we are categorically NOT the initiators if this race begins in earnest.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

TLAM, LRASM, JASSM and LRAShCM-N are really bad ideas but other points are quite sensible from the planning perspective. Agree that most of this aren’t happening. At least GLCM should happen though, even if it’s difficult to containerise SLCM-N (use control features)

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brasidas @brasidas.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

This is one of my favorite products to produce because it is about getting the terrain to tell a story to the staff.

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Christoph Harig @charig.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

This is very good on how the cult of tactics and lethality is about to do serious damage to US PME I'd add that anti-intellectualism is a major threat to PME elsewhere, too

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

True in a technical sense, tho it’s important to note that in modern conflicts (Iran is no exception), the air dominance is localised to enable the mission objectives. So it is “localised total” air dominance

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 08/03/2026

Re school strike-it likely wasn't a problem with the use of outdated imagery, it was an error in assessing the nature of the target. The planner relied on outdated intel and, based on the imagery he received he created a strike plan. You’d be surprised how much old info planning often relies on 1/2

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 06/03/2026

I have had quite deep and lengthy on and off record discussions on these topics with researchers and NATO officers, but unfortunately it is true that institutional learning is slower than slow.

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NOELREPORTS @noelreports.com · 01/03/2026

Ukrainian Special Forces Operations drones destroyed a Russian 9C19 Ginger radar station and an S-300V air defense system near Mariupol overnight, using domestically produced FP-2 drones with 100kg warheads. #Ukraine

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 01/03/2026

Cross-posting it here from Twitter TL/DR - yes, a lot:) Interception geometry matters for endo-atmospheric TBM defence. A MaRV headed straight at the launcher is a different engagement from one aimed a few kilometres aside, particularly once overflight and rear-sector cases arise. 1/16

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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Interesting paper. One anchor point in the discussion that I am curious about is this, regarding selection effects & US ED. "I find no evidence that the US...extended its nuclear deterrence to states that were particularly more likely to be targeted by the Soviet Union's military challenges."

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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 16/02/2026

Something I couldn't possibly comment on, but would like to pull the pin on the discursive hand grenade for anyway, is more granularity when we talk about nuclear latency. There is a spectrum from "we have some plutonium somewhere" to "I have one cable left to plug in before launch". Details matter!

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Interesting paper. There are also other reasons for expansion than just the credibility of extended deterrence, but it is definitely worth reading and food for thought.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 23/02/2026

Incidentally, it is deliberately designed as a limited operation to study what effects can be achieved in such a format, as this is apparently what the administration is considering. It is not what I would consider reasonable, and the number of sorties is at the lower end of what is realistic.

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