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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

(Chap is the Operational Commander of the Polish Armed Forces)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Perhaps Perhaps also the only way of responding to the asymmetrical escalation

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Not only that, capacity – these have their own problems (they must be command-guided from the ground, and de-confliction is very difficult), but it is simply an available, cheap solution and, in some operational areas (South), more usable (and waaay cheaper) than the rotary wing.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

That’s the aspect I haven’t really seen mentioned in the public but it’s very real, intercepting piston Shahed (derivatives) with guns was a very difficult and dangerous task as they loitered at speeds of 97–108 kt, near or below the F-16’s stall speed (depends on conf)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

We have recently seen a lot of gun intercepts videos, new, faster Shahed derivatives are actually easier to shoot down for a fighter jets than earlier piston variants as they fly closer (in the range of about 240–320 kt depending on variant) to practical loiter speed of fighters 1/2

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Seriously though, the Geran 4 is borderline (unlike the Geran 3, it is fully adapted for jet propulsion), whilst the Geran 5 is unambiguously a cruise missile, the new vehicles (S-71K, DAN-T, Banderol) are too true CMs with advanced navigation systems, designed to reduce IR and radar signatures.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

Well, we (NATO) define cruise missile as a "a guided missile with aerofoil wing surfaces" and more specifically (INF definition) as an "unmanned, self-propelled vehicle that sustains flight through the use of aerodynamic lift over most of its flight path" 1979 ATCM programme shared for no reason :)

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🪖MilitaryNewsUA🇺🇦 @militarynewsua.bsky.social · 29/09/2026

❗️Volunteers from Taiwan, South Korea, China and Japan in the Armed Forces of Ukraine

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

From the footage I saw - this cruise missile strike was clearly planned as a strike against a soft target with an inside explosion in the pavilion that triggers an internal fire by exploiting the chimney effect. Disgusting terror attack and a war crime

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

(but again, if certain conditions are met ofc)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

...the communication with the leadership has been lost and sensors give reliable information about nuclear detonations. In my opinion, there are more problematic implications of the channel than this (ie the NCA’s could use the channel to issue a direct command if I understand it correctly)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It has no capability for preparing a launch order in a fully automated mode without participation of the complex's crew. It can be best described as a semi-automated, when "armed" (preliminary authorised), the crew "can prepare and transmit the launch order to the troops only if....

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

As a sidenote-regardless of anyone’s views on nukes, it is difficult to argue that survivable NC3 systems are in any way problematic. Modernisation as such is not the result of paranoia of the (otherwise undoubtedly extremely paranoid) Russian leadership, it has been underway for a very long time.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It is not surprising that one of Perimeter’s original tasks was, in fact, to strengthen political control over the arsenal. FIN 6/6

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

The system is designed for these four functions: 1.) it provides a backup channel and a radio relay 2.) it addresses survivors' right to launch 3.) it is bypassing destroyed command posts 4.) it has a sensor-triggered element it can be in a standby "watch" mode or in a wired combat mode 5/6

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Aside from that, the command missiles are being replaced with Sirena-M command missiles (which is too part of the modernisation). The article refers to the system as a “dead hand” – this is a popular perception in the West, but it is not true. The system is semi-automated and has a human crew 4/6

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

It is unofficially known as "System 3/16", the GRAU code is not publicly known. The most recent modernisation work has focused on the subject of this article – the command post (Object 1335) and the electrical and life support equipment. 3/6

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

...it is continuously maintained and modernised whilst it remains in service. Since the end of the Cold War and throughout the 2000s, it has undergone significant modernisation and, strictly speaking, neither the name "Perimeter" nor the original index (15E601) are used any more. 2/6

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Re Perimeter backup channel article - it is nice to see some of the photographs (even though they have long been known to the specialist community), but otherwise the article really doesn’t bring anything new to the table. Incidentally, the system has never been deactivated,... 1/6

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Liberal Currents @liberalcurrents.com · 16/09/2026

“Russian strategists threaten civilian economic and cultural sites with the aim of brutalizing European populations into surrender. Russian targeting of churches and hospitals in Ukraine with dual-capable missiles is meant to foreshadow a similar fate for NATO populations.”

liberalcurrents.com

Nuclear Arms and the New Free World

The free world no longer has the luxury of regarding nuclear deterrence like a snow globe on a shelf.

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Rocky Flats Chimney Sweep 🇺🇸 @midlifesuezcrisis.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

It lives! A huge thank you to the friends and colleagues who helped refine this, and who have been arguing with me about the core premise for years now. Thank you also to the LC editorial staff for giving this a venue and for a smooth and very positive editing process. What a treat to write for.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

Jokes aside, how do you want compare such entirely different theatres? There’s very little to learn from UA about Taiwan defence (well, A2AD in a broader sense maybe). I would understand using Dardanelles when you are thinking about countering Unternehmen Seelöwe…

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 16/09/2026

We are now doing Corbett sea denial with a rigid Lanchester-square-law thinking but this time applied to tech in a Soviet Kursk defence way, I see. Someone has to justify the creation of the ADA2 abbreviation I guess (these cannot even be considered that strictly speaking😭)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

The growing number of Russian officials coming to the conclusion equates SVR operation. Everyone should just ignore this (won’t happen I know). If it’s (in any way) real it looks very different (incl the communication of western entities)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

To be honest, at this point NATO should opt for tough action to restore deterrence – a controlled incursion into Russian airspace near K’grad, offensive cyber operations etc, the plans, capabilities and infrastructure are in place – it is simply a matter of political will

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 26/08/2026

Re Baltic exercises-yes, it is signaling, nothing unprecedented in terms of the activities per se but definitely coupled w direct strategic messaging. I’m somewhat concerned that our restraint may have led us to a point where these traditional tools prove insufficient, but that is another discussion

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George William Herbert @georgewherbert.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

This is being widely called a war crime by the BlueSky community but the apparent lack of anything like a legitimate target nearby strongly suggests that this was a guidance failure in the JDAM guided bomb. These are not long distance attack weapons, JDAM are dropped from crewed aircraft.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 02/08/2026

The low-pass itself is one thing and the fact is that they’ve been performing similar manoeuvres for years (and BA are very good at that). The actual problem is that that the F-18 clearly crossed the display line and flew out of the box. Which is strictly prohibited for a reason.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

FT for some reason loves to write about this every two or three months even though it’s a well known fact. Do the Western partners provide ELINT, SIGINT and IMINT (and HUMINT)? Sure, what’s surprising. Can Ukraine plan (and execute) raids independently? Yes it absolutely can and sometimes also does

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

There is political will (Diehl, Hensoldt, Thales, and others want a piece of the pie), and there will also be technology transfer and oversight, with production certainly taking place largely in Europe. At the end of the day, govs will “cash in” since they will be buying everything that’s available.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Lockheed’s response to competition in the European market (the Freya system being developed by a consortium led by Fire Point) and to new US’s requirements and NATO CTs (the 2025 CTs represent a 400% increase in AMD requirements compared to 2024 and have been further increased at the Ankara summit).

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Tit-for-tat response and not even the first one, they were already providing the intel to Houthis. It was even publicly signalled by senior Russian officials and even by Putin himself

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Larry the Cat @number10cat.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Updated my profile. Again.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

You cannot do that with Kheybar Shekan without high-fidelity 6-DOF simulations (which allow you, for example, to time terminal maneuvers to radar horizons) which Iran cannot do without Russian assistance. There is much more to what WP describes as “speed and angle”. So there’s that FIN 3/3

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Strikes on specific targets (I am not going to specify) required additional information, and Iran does not possess an in-house ISTAR capabilities that would allow it to determine, for example, the near real time positions of emitters. 2/3

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 20/07/2026

Some thoughts on recent Iranian strikes Many of these targets are still TSSTs (as defined), just not TCTs, given the pre-launch procedures they use, it is pretty obvious that RU supplied an external ISR and situational-awareness layer that Iran integrated into a streamlined F2T2EA process. 1/3

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James Cameron @jjjcameron.bsky.social · 14/07/2026

Some gravity bombs deliverable by max 12 aircraft is not a credible first-use warfighting capability.

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 15/07/2026

It’s "realism" for me but not for thee It’s funny because he’s author of “coalition-based denial”,yet he attacks the very idea of transactional alliances. Y’know when a patron lacks credibility,even poses a threat and considers coalitions completely dispensable,middle powers begin to hedge SURPRISE

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Greater degree of interaction between academia and the military should thus be sought if only for practical reasons (which has been a policy, effectiveness aside)

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

No, not a civil-military scholar, but O-6s and above should be educated about the all aspects of the entire DIMEFIL spectrum, which is still quite a problem at military academies (for various reasons).

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Btw Freya is a part of the initiative (as is pushing SAMP/T and some other programmes).

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

...(which the Biden administration preferred) and a system in which Russia has replaced China’s role in the triangle problem - a view preferred, for example, by Elbridge Colby. A so called "reverse Nixon", or better gaining the pivot, is considered an desired foreign policy position there

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

The potential problem I see is that there are essentially two ways to solve the three-body problem, and American strategists have not yet been able to agree on which one to apply. There is a system in which Russia and China are viewed as a single pole with multiple centers of power...

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

...the evolving Blue Books and CTs (which have been increased three times in recent years), along with efforts to Europeanise capabilities. Re upper tier: HYDIS/AQUILA- FCR completed on 10 July 2026, concept-phase final milestone- May 2027 : EU HYDEF- PRR August 2026 : HYDIS2dp/EATMI-2 - PDR 2029

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It’s not a single programme. It is an initiative that establishes a political and requirements-setting coalition: common operational requirements (incl C3), technical working groups, governance, data exchange and a roadmap toward initial capability (viewed comprehensively). It follows on from... 1/2

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

It’s gonna have some interesting capabilities, kinematics-wise. If my calculations are at least partially correct it will be in the similar ballpark as PAC-3 CRI, that is effective intercept altitude 12–18 km, 30-38km effective slant reach, 1.25–1.55 km/s terminal etc

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

So it's been longer than I expected (really sorry). In any case, I think it's very interesting to read in the context of today’s debate, especially given that this analysis was written before the collapse of the USSR 34/34 PS - sorry for formatting, I didn't feel like doing it all again

static.klipy.com

Fin

ALT: Fin

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

PRC did not require military parity with either superpower to constitute an autonomous pole. Sustained economic modernisation,reduced vulnerability,and a more credible nuclear deterrent would enlarge PRC’s freedom of action and contribute to the emergence of a tripolar order 33/x

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

The objective was not political convergence, but a more durable relationship less dependent on a single external threat. Concluding argument was based on what was perceived as a distinction between aggregate capability and strategic effect. 32/x

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Matej Rafael Risko @matejrisko.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

Starbuck’s policy recommendation was correspondingly restrained.Rather than attempting to formalise the relationship around security cooperation,Washington should broaden its foundations through trade,investment,education,scientific exchange,and selective technology transfer 31/x

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