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Mark Hibbs

@mark88.bsky.social
541 followers 168 following 193 posts

Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Nuclear Policy Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. They are in Washington, D.C. I'm in Berlin.

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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Germany's Pisa failure is no coincidence: years of low/no economic growth, climate of permissive lethargy on education, migration, social welfare, health care.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
This is a bright and shiny object on 9/17/26 for reporters. But there is no such thing as an "associate membership" in the EU Treaty. Article 49 says who is eligible for membership: European countries only. Canada isn't one of those. www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/expl...
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
That's fine, but as you know and Von der Leyen must also know, there is no such thing as "associate membership" in the EU Treaty. Under Article 49, Canada would not be considered a European state. NATO handles most Euro-defense issues; the EU has non-NATO members.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Fukuyama was also wrong about the other stuff, his current curated corrective narrative and global media blitz to the contrary.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Don't forget Canada's risk-taking on the ground in rescuing US personnel during the US-Iran hostage crisis in 1979.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 30/08/2026
"Golden Arches Theory"--a permutation of the quaint post-Cold War convergence theory of International relations: "The more we trade with them and the nicer we are, the more they will become like us."
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
So this is about Assad's U3O8? Anything of more acute interest? A "US official" is cited here as saying there is something else at this location. What, then? Did they ask? Murky rumors that Turkey is mixed up in this? Pray, tell.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 04/08/2026
I recall you had promised this update and it is timely. Wines of the Haute-Loire are getting more attention from quality-minded buyers; this trend may be favored by climate threats as many H-L vines grow at higher altitudes and in mixed-agri-zones (crops/forest/vines).
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Reposted by Mark Hibbs
Timothy Huyer @tim4hire.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
Oh good grief. This is paranoia wrapped up in fantasy. Canada’s nuclear industry, including plans for new reactors, do not give any reasons that Canada may break or exit the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Aside from it being politically suicidal for the government, it remains practically impossible. 1/
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Judah Grunstein @judah-grunstein.bsky.social · 22/06/2026
Reupping this, in light of the news that Iran has agreed to let IAEA inspectors back into the country. If true it's a good start, but as @mark88.bsky.social explained, the IAEA lost continuity of knowledge and an accurate baseline for safeguards after June 2025, and it's gotten worse since then.
worldpoliticsreview.com
Iran’s Nuclear Program Took a Real Hit. So Did IAEA Oversight of It
The U.S. attack on Fordow did real damage to the site. But it also set back the IAEA’s oversight of Iran’s nuclear program.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
Turkey, Russia, Ethiopia, Egypt, UAE, Iran: All these states are profiteering from the civil war in Sudan. Both sides are getting their help in continuing the bloodshed. The Franco-German ARTE site summarizes it: www.arte.tv/de/videos/12...
arte.tv
Mit offenen Karten - Im Fokus - Krieg im Sudan: Die Konfliktparteien - Die ganze Doku | ARTE
Den Sudan nicht vergessen: Das Land befindet sich seit mehr als drei Jahren im Krieg. 15 Millionen Menschen wurden vertrieben, zehntausende getötet – laut UN eine der größten humanitären Krisen der We...
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
How many people in Washington this week will tell their funders that they succeeded behind the scenes in convincing Rubio and Trump that the U.S. should "cooperate" with China?
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 15/05/2026
Chancelier Merz ne cesse de dire des choses qui vont lui attirer des ennuis...
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 09/05/2026
@chriswinedoctor.bsky.social Imbibed the first of 6 bottles of Pierre Menard's 2022 dry Anjou cuvées: Quarts de Gastines. If the rest are this good, wow. White chocolate, anise, coconut, lemon.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
@rosabalfour.bsky.social Hungarian election commission says Magyar has a 2/3 majority: Bad news for nuclear industry friends of @rosatom.bsky.social in Brussels, France, Germany, Hungary, and Slovakia
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
www.lemonde.fr/sport/live/2... Paris-Roubaix 2026. And in the field today is a team managed by George Hincapie, with years of experience in the doping network of former team member Lance Armstrong.
lemonde.fr
EN DIRECT, Paris-Roubaix : « l’enfer du Nord » a débuté, le peloton approche des secteurs pavés
Vainqueur des deux premiers « monuments » de la saison, Tadej Pogacar vise un premier succès sur Paris-Roubaix, dimanche. Mais d’autres prétendants peuvent également envisager un succès, à l’instar de...
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
..and the ultimate challenge to the revolving-door career culture of Washington's permanent meritocracy. It could still take effective action.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
Subversive interference by a foreign government in another country's democratic election process
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Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists @thebulletin.org · 26/03/2026
The EU wants to reestablish the nuclear power supply it once had, when nuclear provided about a 1/3 of the bloc’s electricity supply. But Europe's industrial capacity, financial challenges, & politics are major obstacles to a "nuclear renaissance."
thebulletin.org
Why politics, money, and construction capacity will limit any European turn toward nuclear power generation
The EU wants to reestablish the nuclear power supply it once had, when nuclear provided about a third of the bloc’s electricity supply. But Europe's industrial capacity, financial challenges, and…
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
Beyond happy talk and tweaking bureaucratic rules, Europe has a very long road ahead if it aims to renew its nuclear industry capacity enough to make a difference. In this piece I and Miles Pomper of MIIS identify the big picture obstacles.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
It was Rembrandt who changed the complexion of European art by painting real Jews in biblical scenes. That was beginning in the 1630s. Here, in 1909, Mary looks extremely Ukrainian!
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
Not convinced that greater defenses in Ukraine would have "ended" Putin's war. But there is no doubt that both US and Europe have failed to do specific things that would isolate, penalize, and defund Moscow's war machine.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
I also said that Moscow's demonstrative non-interference in Rosatom clients' politics was separate from Russia's efforts to access and influence these states' internal strategic decision making. www.dw.com/en/russia-oi...
dw.com
Beyond oil and gas: Russia's nuclear leverage explained
Russian oil and gas face sanctions, but nuclear energy is another story. DW shows how far Russia's influence extends, and why countries continue to turn to it for nuclear energy.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
Global Entry should be terminated. At Islamabad airport, personnel request baksheesh to let you jump the queue. At US airports, it's the federal government that asks you to grease their palm for that 'service.' DHS should staff up and put an end to this form of institutionalized corruption.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
Ironically but, given the legacy of binary myopia in Washington over Iran, probably predictably, it was Trump's adversaries who, likewise for partisan reasons, beat this drum promptly after the air war. ("Iran has hidden assets... Iran will now race to the bomb... could be weeks or months")
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
FYI, the incoming and current CDU-led government relieved Kahl of his responsibilities in the national security area and appointed him as German ambassador to the Vatican.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
How will Leafs receive Austin Matthews when he returns to Toronto ice? editorinleaf.com/auston-matth...
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 22/02/2026
If Canada wins in Milan this afternoon, Trump will say: 1.) Canada stole the game from the US, and/or 2.) The referees were disloyal and unpatriotic.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Remember when back then campaigners believed that the DPRK would give up its strategic nuclear defense assets in exchange for 2 power reactors and some windmills?
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
German media on hand at MSC reporting Euros reacted w/polite restraint but dismiss Rubio's shmooz & line. MOD Pistorius reminded Rubio on stage that just days ago Trump claimed US would grab Danish sovereign territory.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
Merz' message was inter alia to underscore that walking all this back to, say, the universe of Merkel/Scholz-Obama/Biden is neither feasible nor desirable: "We face committed and hostile adversaries."
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 14/02/2026
As a frame, worth recalling that yesterday at MSC German Chancellor Friedrich Merz quoted the philosopher Peter Sloterdijk: The 5-decade "holiday from world history is over."
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Chernobyl is a magic word in the attention economy, but there are no operating reactors with live fuel there, and there are other places in Ukraine which if directly attacked could unleash far more severe accident scenarios.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 19/01/2026
Good to see, thanks, also on the late and legendary Jacky Blot's fine unsung reds. Q: Why do I seem to be increasingly finding Bourgueil & other CFs that come out of the bottle tasting on margin like rusty blood? Because producers rushing to make bio wines don't know how to do it right?
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
Backstory to this is here: www.armscontrolwonk.com/archive/1219... French supplier's contract for Rosatom projects in NATO member state may be worth several USD billion.
armscontrolwonk.com
Turkey’s Nuclear Turbines
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 we’ve heard a lot of chatter about US and European resolve to sanction or otherwise deter cooperation [...]
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 13/01/2026
No information here on who supplied the turbine generator equipment for A-2. France shipped it to Rosatom in a deal with Erdogan and Trump to brush off U.S. trade sanctions imposed after Putin's invasion of Ukraine? world-nuclear-news.org/articles/akk...
world-nuclear-news.org
Akkuyu 2's turbine generator stator installed
The 437-tonne turbine generator stator was moved on a special track before being lifted into place in the turbine hall of unit 2 at Turkey's Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant.  ;
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Appreciate your data on Pinon's Vouvrays. We popped open a '22 Les Déronnières, you called it right. That said, our bottle was 13.5% alc. The one you tasted was a whole percent less. What gives? Is the output a standard deviation where buyers must be careful e. g. to avoid hot wines--caveat emptor?
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
@ 17:25: L'objectif d'Ernest Chausson était-il de se "de-wagneriser" la musique du 19e siècle?
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 03/10/2025
re Chinon: Read yr take on Couly-Duteil, also for me in 90s intro to appellation. C-D also had a grand tasting room near Gare du Nord. No more. C-D cld be exhibit A on wine-biz evolution--product differentiation aside, maybe today too many single cuvées, some as you identify having less quality.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 24/09/2025
Perhaps this incident will prompt Sánchez and his Socialist Party base to take seriously from now on what NATO is facing on its eastern border.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 15/09/2025
Maybe decant this and re-taste: by dinnertime 24 hrs later, recorked half approached softer trad Anjou reds, w/o losing contour, so it improved. 600 km from Haute-Loire to Fiefs Vendéen, w/every bottle you learn more & more; your notes are helpful, also in this case.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 13/09/2025
@chriswinedoctor.bsky.social U were generous in rating Ch. Plaisance Grand Lopin '21 at 87/100 but yr points still held in '25: Little sweetness, dense but opaque profile en bouche, thin, flat palette, sour finish. Nose improved since yr '22 tasting Their whites are better than this on average.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 17/07/2025
The IAEA contributed to what little is known about the impact of the June attacks on Iran's nuclear installations. But the challenges to the IAEA going forward in and with Iran will be mammoth. www.worldpoliticsreview.com/us-iran-nucl...
worldpoliticsreview.com
Iran’s Nuclear Program Took a Real Hit. So Did IAEA Oversight of It
The U.S. attack on Fordow did real damage to the site. But it also set back the IAEA’s oversight of Iran’s nuclear program.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Here in Germany if extreme polarization prompted justices of the Constitutional Court to make such accusations, the country's leadership & everyone else would engage on how to avoid/prepare for a national state of emergency (Innerer Notstand/Notstandsgesetze)
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
Louis-Ferdinand Céline à Eugène Dabit, 1933: "La vie ne passe plus par la littérature. C'est une ville ancienne capitale comme Dijon abandonnée aux chats amputés...''
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 05/07/2025
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/04/w... For the IAEA for 3 weeks management of this issue wasn't trivial. When the 12-day bombing got underway, I heard then, there were personnel in Israel, also in Tehran and in a location between Natanz and Fordo.
nytimes.com
Nuclear Inspectors Leave Iran After Cooperation Halted With U.N. Watchdog
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
As Nicole's good thread I believe implied, there is a reasonable probability that Iran's post-12-day-war timeline is neither 'never' nor is it 'months'
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 29/06/2025
Read Nicole's thread on Iran timelines. What she was maybe too polite or politic to say is that many op-ed estimates are ultimately less driven by analytical assumptions and more by DC-routine binary myopia: Trump loyalists claim all was destroyed. Trump's foes say Iran can get the bomb in months.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 27/06/2025
Yes, what does noncompliance inspire? NPT includes reporting procedure, but no enforcement mechanism for noncompliance. That's ad-hoc. Absent common int'l resolve odds favor savvy, determined violator: 25 years and 80 board meetings of Iranian rope-a-dope with the IAEA board.
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Mark Hibbs @mark88.bsky.social · 26/06/2025
The NYT article is consistent with what I know. The IAEA's information pointing to this conclusion is of a quantitative and measurable nature. It isn't about wishful thinking.
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