Reposted by Marcus HowGEO-POWER-EU @geopower-eu.bsky.social · 23/06/20261/How resilient national decision-making processes to external influence in WB&Associated Trio?Our Strategic Autonomy Index examines the extent to which countries are able to make domestic policy decisions independently, highlighting both strengths&areas of vulnerability 🔗https://shorturl.at/wFwyT👇 101
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 10/06/2026That's a pretty embarrassing factual error. The alliance with the Guard was uneasy; Antonescu scarcely tolerated them. 120
Reposted by Marcus HowGEO-POWER-EU @geopower-eu.bsky.social · 10/06/20261/Partners reviewed progress, discussed upcoming work (co-creation studios, research, serious game, dissemination & others), and held a strategic foresight workshop on alternative geopolitical scenarios for the #WB and Associated Trio. 121
Reposted by Marcus HowZselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 09/06/2026There was a Fidesz ideologue who once said, "What you call corruption is the essence of the system." Seems he was right but we're just learning by how much. The Integrity Authority estimates Orban's rule cost Hungary €160B(!) in corruption. That equals ~2/3 of 🇭🇺 GDP. www.ft.com/content/0c44...ft.comAI used to hunt Viktor Orbán’s alleged corruptionHead of Hungary’s anti-graft body says €160bn may have been siphoned off during ex-PM’s 16 years in power 17242106
Reposted by Marcus HowZselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 01/06/2026I spoke to Milan Nic @milanninberlin.bsky.social about where things are going (but also, not going) on enlargement and how to make sense of the recent flurry of ideas on associate membership, veto rights, etc. It turned out to be a more optimistic conversation than I expected! Tune in below 👇 064
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 04/05/2026…frames a Russian incursion as taking place in a bilateral vacuum. In reality, Baltic defence is increasingly well coordinated by a regional coalition of the willing. Finally, my (limited) understanding is that a glorified Russian sit-in at Narva doesn’t align with Moscow’s military doctrine. 060
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 04/05/2026Great article which lays bare how it is often assumed that states such as Estonia are doomed owing to their size alone, and necessarily lack meaningful autonomy. More generally, the Narva scenario is a red herring b/c (1) it ignores the local idiosyncrasies of Narva; and… 1287
Reposted by Marcus HowKatalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 26/04/2026❓Lately, many people have been speculating about what the fallen Viktor Orbán is planning to do. Many view his resignation from his parliamentary seat as the first step toward his complete disappearance, or perhaps his flight abroad. Millions of his critics are calling for blood... 🧵 1287
Reposted by Marcus HowJoost @almodozo.bsky.social · 22/04/2026This, though, +12% to 65%? That's next level (even if it's just one poll rather than an average). But I could believe it. Aside from its true believers, themselves now disoriented, Fidesz built whole electorates on patronage networks. Now that whole system has collapsed, and its incentives with it. 232
Reposted by Marcus HowFinancial Times @financialtimes.com · 22/04/2026Moscow to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin ft.trib.al/H2FDYxlft.trib.alMoscow to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying BerlinRussian plan puts majority of German city’s supplies of petrol, kerosene and heating fuel at risk 32712
Reposted by Marcus HowJeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 20/04/2026Thanks indeed to @financialtimes.com for publishing me on the anti-US turn of the European right. From moderate conservatives to nationalist radicals, it is nimbly shifting towards a politics of autonomy. The centre and left must move fast - or risk being outflanked. www.ft.com/content/cba2...ft.comThe European right is pivoting away from AmericaElectoral logic is driving a shift as polls lay bare European disgust at the US administration 314354
Reposted by Marcus HowMaria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 19/04/2026With Radev's win in Bulgaria, imo, we'll see something new at the EU level-- advocacy for pro-Ru positions not from a euroskeptic position a la Orban/AfD/RN but from an ostensibly pro-EU position: Europe should abandon Ukr and go back to cheap Ru energy to be stronger and strategically autonomous. 1813638
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 18/04/2026Not much has changed in wide segments of discourse/the population in Bulgaria 020
Reposted by Marcus HowMaria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 18/04/2026The US always had a streak of conciliatory attitude to the USSR, seeking to understand where they're coming from and hoping to find middle ground. Meanwhile, when I was growing up in Bulgaria in the 80s, I learned Americans are militarists who want to kill us, while the USSR wants peace. Zero nuance 2037062
Reposted by Marcus HowKatalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 15/04/2026👋 More and more Fidesz insiders are jumping from the sinking ship. Suddenly they blame each other, the circumstances, the party leadership, even Viktor Orbán himself. And of course they all claim they “saw it coming” long ago. 🧵 47333
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 17/04/2026He was arguably most pivotal during the Kinnock era, before sliding into the immediate sidelines during Blair/Brown. 020
Reposted by Marcus HowTom Nuttall @tomnuttall.bsky.social · 16/04/2026I steped briefly back into Charlemagne's robes this week (@spignal.bsky.social is on holiday) to explain why, amid all the Magyar-mania, the EU risks ignoring some important lessons it ought to take from its long Orban nightmare. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...economist.comOrban-proofing the EUHow the leader of a small, poor country held such sway over the bloc 24813
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026You're providing an important public service. Thank you sir 0220
Reposted by Marcus HowZack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social · 13/04/2026A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why. 5238281058
Reposted by Marcus HowZoltan Miklosi @zmiklosi.bsky.social · 13/04/2026For years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread... 8645182
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026“Happy birthday sweetie, I got you diplomatic sanctions, just like you always wanted” 010
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Let’s face it as well: it’s just not good sport to leave out Austria’s infamous day(s) in the sun. 000
Reposted by Marcus HowPepijn Bergsen @pbergsen.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Nothing like some Monday morning pedantry to start the week 011
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Soros? Musk hasn’t followed this election at all, has he? 100
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026You got me, I was thinking about when the government was formed which is technically cheating 110
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026That's a great one; you've really upped the stakes, Tom. So important the ECB quietly suspended the independence of its decision-making. 010
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026I call on the Oracle that is @aphclarkson.bsky.social 000
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026Poland in 2023. Arguably Hungary in 2010, of course. 020
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026It's hard to think of a European election in the 21st century that has had more implications for the EU than the one in Hungary. Some that spring to mind are Austria in 2000, Greece in 2015, symbolically France in 2017, UK in 2019. Special mention to Romania in 2024/2025. Any other takers? 550
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/04/2026Which, ironically enough, resulted in the defeat of Fidesz, which Orban hadn’t expected. Totally different environment and voter compositions back then, though. 010
Reposted by Marcus HowJon Worth @jonworth.eu · 12/04/2026There is an obviously Fidesz designed table tennis table here in Szár - it’s sloped against the players 812218
Reposted by Marcus HowMujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 11/04/2026‼️🇭🇺🇪🇺 Here is a potted timeline thread marking some of the key milestones that built Prime Minister Viktor Orban's illiberal democracy in Hungary over his 16 years in power. His tenure looks likely to end tomorrow. The table stakes for Hungary and Europe could not be higher 1/ 10400119
Reposted by Marcus HowPalma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 11/04/2026Orbán took power in April 2010. We organized our first protests against him that December. I was 22, in undergrad, lucky to be in a community of students ready to resist. Looking back, no wonder this moment feels so heavy. 🧵 214439
Reposted by Marcus HowJakub Jaraczewski @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social · 10/04/2026🇭🇺🗳️📺I've spent a week watching Hungarian TV/YT, or at least what of it was subtitled in a remotely familiar language. I've tried to understand the core messaging of the key parties, to get a grip on the emotions, and to find out exactly who Péter Magyar is. Three takeaways: 1/ 13111
Reposted by Marcus HowZselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 10/04/2026Let's look at a claim from the 2022 Hungary elections, that independent pollsters got it all wrong. It's not true. Everyone predicted a Fidesz win, with the exception of one pollster. But most were significantly off re Fidesz's lead, which ended up being >16pp en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion... 32912
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 10/04/2026What's your take on a scenario in which Tisza wins the popular vote by 5-10%, while Fidesz scrapes through in enough constituency-level seats such that it can hang onto an absolute majority? 100
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/04/2026Now he's visited Moscow, I wonder whether he'll be visiting Kyiv? 000
Reposted by Marcus HowMartin Weiss @weissmartin.bsky.social · 08/04/2026Can't say that I know nearly enough about Hungarian domestic politics. But I'm pretty sure that if an American Vice-President would be dispatched to Austria in a last minute effort to influence Austrian voters this would completely and utterly backfire 2416
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 05/04/2026I wasn't sure how much more I could hear about the saga of Karin Kneissl, but ended up binge-listening to this exceptional piece of reportage. A well-known tale where the Datum team nonetheless managed to deliver fresh and shocking insights. Highly recommended! 184
Reposted by Marcus HowPOLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 03/04/2026How Viktor Orbán laid traps to stop his successor from running Hungarydlvr.itHow Viktor Orbán laid traps to stop his successor from running HungaryThe country's current leader has put loyalists in key public institutions who will be able to thwart the budgets and legislation of any new prime minister. 64033
Reposted by Marcus HowZselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 01/04/2026Two of the latest polls, from previously quite accurate pollsters, show a Tisza lead of ~20pp in Hungary. But can the opposition really win? Why is Orban on the backfoot? And what happens after April 12? 🇭🇺Hungary elections thread 🧵 6316116
Reposted by Marcus HowGabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 29/03/2026T-14 days until the Hungarian election. 🇭🇺🗳️ In this thread, I discuss Magyar's prospects of success in restoring (liberal) democracy (if he wins) and will tell you he's not the saviour you might think he is (but that he’s still good enough for now). 🧵 1/ 11321125
Reposted by Marcus HowPepijn Bergsen @pbergsen.bsky.social · 30/03/2026All the cool kids are now talking about Hungary ahead of the election in two weeks but we’ve been doing that for ages (3 months)! This week we had László Andor on the podcast to talk about Orbán and the EU and a bit on the economic conditions that allowed his rise and now potentially his fall. 0174
Reposted by Marcus HowChris Cook @chriscook.news · 23/03/2026Our latest on the Orban System: how a dozen or so businessmen closely tied to the Hungarian premier hit gold from state contracts when he took over www.ft.com/content/70c2... 11254109
Reposted by Marcus HowPalma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 28/03/2026We can’t get to April 12 fast enough ⏳ brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...brettoninthewoods.substack.comCan Hungary Vote Out Its Autocrat?Musings on the politics & political economy of Orbánism ahead of the April 12 election 115217
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 26/03/2026Interesting that they felt the need to do that given how wide the margin of victory was. 000
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 25/03/2026Let me know if you do! Re voter tourism: haven’t seen any specific indicators but I wonder if it’s possible for them to have dual nationals in RO, SL, RS, UA register to swing constituencies and bus them in en masse on the day. Happened in RS with Serb voters from Bosnia, for example. 300
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 25/03/20261. Uniformly = projection of nationwide result across individual seats, i.e. based on almost certainly incorrect assumption that party performance will be distributed evenly. 2. Yes, swapping out United for Hungary for Tisza. Intention is simply to demonstrate plausibility of the scenario. 100
Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 25/03/2026If Fidesz wins 39 seats on party-list basis, holds 43 very safe seats, then if it can hold 18 further seats in the 10-24 bracket by narrow margins, then it secures a majority. Even though Tisza has a wide lead nationwide. At the very least, it can narrow Tisza's majority considerably. 000