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Marcus How

@marcus-how.bsky.social
981 followers 769 following 295 posts

Head of Analysis at VE Insight (formerly ViennEast). Interested in Austria & CEE. Austro-Essexian hybrid. Opinions expressed are my own.

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Reposted by Marcus How
GEO-POWER-EU @geopower-eu.bsky.social · 23/06/2026
1/How resilient national decision-making processes to external influence in WB&Associated Trio?Our Strategic Autonomy Index examines the extent to which countries are able to make domestic policy decisions independently, highlighting both strengths&areas of vulnerability 🔗https://shorturl.at/wFwyT👇
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
That's a pretty embarrassing factual error. The alliance with the Guard was uneasy; Antonescu scarcely tolerated them.
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GEO-POWER-EU @geopower-eu.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
1/Partners reviewed progress, discussed upcoming work (co-creation studios, research, serious game, dissemination & others), and held a strategic foresight workshop on alternative geopolitical scenarios for the #WB and Associated Trio.
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Zselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 09/06/2026
There was a Fidesz ideologue who once said, "What you call corruption is the essence of the system." Seems he was right but we're just learning by how much. The Integrity Authority estimates Orban's rule cost Hungary €160B(!) in corruption. That equals ~2/3 of 🇭🇺 GDP. www.ft.com/content/0c44...
ft.com
AI used to hunt Viktor Orbán’s alleged corruption
Head of Hungary’s anti-graft body says €160bn may have been siphoned off during ex-PM’s 16 years in power
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Zselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
I spoke to Milan Nic @milanninberlin.bsky.social about where things are going (but also, not going) on enlargement and how to make sense of the recent flurry of ideas on associate membership, veto rights, etc. It turned out to be a more optimistic conversation than I expected! Tune in below 👇
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
…frames a Russian incursion as taking place in a bilateral vacuum. In reality, Baltic defence is increasingly well coordinated by a regional coalition of the willing. Finally, my (limited) understanding is that a glorified Russian sit-in at Narva doesn’t align with Moscow’s military doctrine.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
Great article which lays bare how it is often assumed that states such as Estonia are doomed owing to their size alone, and necessarily lack meaningful autonomy. More generally, the Narva scenario is a red herring b/c (1) it ignores the local idiosyncrasies of Narva; and…
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Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
❓Lately, many people have been speculating about what the fallen Viktor Orbán is planning to do. Many view his resignation from his parliamentary seat as the first step toward his complete disappearance, or perhaps his flight abroad. Millions of his critics are calling for blood... 🧵
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Joost @almodozo.bsky.social · 22/04/2026
This, though, +12% to 65%? That's next level (even if it's just one poll rather than an average). But I could believe it. Aside from its true believers, themselves now disoriented, Fidesz built whole electorates on patronage networks. Now that whole system has collapsed, and its incentives with it.
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Financial Times @financialtimes.com · 22/04/2026
Moscow to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin ft.trib.al/H2FDYxl
ft.trib.al
Moscow to suspend Kazakh oil flows through key pipeline supplying Berlin
Russian plan puts majority of German city’s supplies of petrol, kerosene and heating fuel at risk
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Jeremy Cliffe @jeremycliffe.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Thanks indeed to @financialtimes.com for publishing me on the anti-US turn of the European right. From moderate conservatives to nationalist radicals, it is nimbly shifting towards a politics of autonomy. The centre and left must move fast - or risk being outflanked. www.ft.com/content/cba2...
ft.com
The European right is pivoting away from America
Electoral logic is driving a shift as polls lay bare European disgust at the US administration
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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
With Radev's win in Bulgaria, imo, we'll see something new at the EU level-- advocacy for pro-Ru positions not from a euroskeptic position a la Orban/AfD/RN but from an ostensibly pro-EU position: Europe should abandon Ukr and go back to cheap Ru energy to be stronger and strategically autonomous.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
Not much has changed in wide segments of discourse/the population in Bulgaria
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Maria Popova @popovaprof.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
The US always had a streak of conciliatory attitude to the USSR, seeking to understand where they're coming from and hoping to find middle ground. Meanwhile, when I was growing up in Bulgaria in the 80s, I learned Americans are militarists who want to kill us, while the USSR wants peace. Zero nuance
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Katalin Halmai @eublogo.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
👋 More and more Fidesz insiders are jumping from the sinking ship. Suddenly they blame each other, the circumstances, the party leadership, even Viktor Orbán himself. And of course they all claim they “saw it coming” long ago. 🧵
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
He was arguably most pivotal during the Kinnock era, before sliding into the immediate sidelines during Blair/Brown.
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Tom Nuttall @tomnuttall.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
I steped briefly back into Charlemagne's robes this week (@spignal.bsky.social is on holiday) to explain why, amid all the Magyar-mania, the EU risks ignoring some important lessons it ought to take from its long Orban nightmare. www.economist.com/europe/2026/...
economist.com
Orban-proofing the EU
How the leader of a small, poor country held such sway over the bloc
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
You're providing an important public service. Thank you sir
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Robert Misik @misik.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Gute Idee
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Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why.
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Zoltan Miklosi @zmiklosi.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
For years, but especially in the last few months, I have been trying hard to imagine what it will feel like seeing Orban decisively defeated. I just couldn't. And yet here we are: it is truly and well over. I have more reservations about Peter Magyar than I could say in 300 characters or a thread...
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
“Happy birthday sweetie, I got you diplomatic sanctions, just like you always wanted”
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Let’s face it as well: it’s just not good sport to leave out Austria’s infamous day(s) in the sun.
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Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Nothing like some Monday morning pedantry to start the week
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Soros? Musk hasn’t followed this election at all, has he?
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
You got me, I was thinking about when the government was formed which is technically cheating
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
That's a great one; you've really upped the stakes, Tom. So important the ECB quietly suspended the independence of its decision-making.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
I call on the Oracle that is @aphclarkson.bsky.social
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
Poland in 2023. Arguably Hungary in 2010, of course.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/04/2026
It's hard to think of a European election in the 21st century that has had more implications for the EU than the one in Hungary. Some that spring to mind are Austria in 2000, Greece in 2015, symbolically France in 2017, UK in 2019. Special mention to Romania in 2024/2025. Any other takers?
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/04/2026
Which, ironically enough, resulted in the defeat of Fidesz, which Orban hadn’t expected. Totally different environment and voter compositions back then, though.
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Jon Worth @jonworth.eu · 12/04/2026
There is an obviously Fidesz designed table tennis table here in Szár - it’s sloped against the players
A sloping table tennis table
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Mujtaba Rahman @mijrahman.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
‼️🇭🇺🇪🇺 Here is a potted timeline thread marking some of the key milestones that built Prime Minister Viktor Orban's illiberal democracy in Hungary over his 16 years in power. His tenure looks likely to end tomorrow. The table stakes for Hungary and Europe could not be higher 1/
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Orbán took power in April 2010. We organized our first protests against him that December. I was 22, in undergrad, lucky to be in a community of students ready to resist. Looking back, no wonder this moment feels so heavy. 🧵
Our student protest against Viktor Orbán’s autocratic takeover in December 2010. The banner reads: WE ARE THE FIRST GENERATION WHO GREW UP WITH THE RULE OF LAW — LET US NOT BE THE LAST ONE.BBC headline: Hungary to create new media watchdog. Students rallied for freedom of speech in Budapest.
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Jakub Jaraczewski @jakubjaraczewski.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
🇭🇺🗳️📺I've spent a week watching Hungarian TV/YT, or at least what of it was subtitled in a remotely familiar language. I've tried to understand the core messaging of the key parties, to get a grip on the emotions, and to find out exactly who Péter Magyar is. Three takeaways: 1/
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Zselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
Let's look at a claim from the 2022 Hungary elections, that independent pollsters got it all wrong. It's not true. Everyone predicted a Fidesz win, with the exception of one pollster. But most were significantly off re Fidesz's lead, which ended up being >16pp en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion...
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
What's your take on a scenario in which Tisza wins the popular vote by 5-10%, while Fidesz scrapes through in enough constituency-level seats such that it can hang onto an absolute majority?
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/04/2026
Now he's visited Moscow, I wonder whether he'll be visiting Kyiv?
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Martin Weiss @weissmartin.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
Can't say that I know nearly enough about Hungarian domestic politics. But I'm pretty sure that if an American Vice-President would be dispatched to Austria in a last minute effort to influence Austrian voters this would completely and utterly backfire
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
I wasn't sure how much more I could hear about the saga of Karin Kneissl, but ended up binge-listening to this exceptional piece of reportage. A well-known tale where the Datum team nonetheless managed to deliver fresh and shocking insights. Highly recommended!
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POLITICO Europe @politico.eu · 03/04/2026
How Viktor Orbán laid traps to stop his successor from running Hungary
dlvr.it
How Viktor Orbán laid traps to stop his successor from running Hungary
The country's current leader has put loyalists in key public institutions who will be able to thwart the budgets and legislation of any new prime minister.
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Zselyke Csaky @zecsaky.bsky.social · 01/04/2026
Two of the latest polls, from previously quite accurate pollsters, show a Tisza lead of ~20pp in Hungary. But can the opposition really win? Why is Orban on the backfoot? And what happens after April 12? 🇭🇺Hungary elections thread 🧵
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Gabriela Greilinger @gabrielagreilinger.com · 29/03/2026
T-14 days until the Hungarian election. 🇭🇺🗳️ In this thread, I discuss Magyar's prospects of success in restoring (liberal) democracy (if he wins) and will tell you he's not the saviour you might think he is (but that he’s still good enough for now). 🧵 1/
Magyar on stage with a huge Hungarian flag
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Pepijn Bergsen @pbergsen.bsky.social · 30/03/2026
All the cool kids are now talking about Hungary ahead of the election in two weeks but we’ve been doing that for ages (3 months)! This week we had László Andor on the podcast to talk about Orbán and the EU and a bit on the economic conditions that allowed his rise and now potentially his fall.
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Chris Cook @chriscook.news · 23/03/2026
Our latest on the Orban System: how a dozen or so businessmen closely tied to the Hungarian premier hit gold from state contracts when he took over www.ft.com/content/70c2...
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Palma Polyak @palmapolyak.bsky.social · 28/03/2026
We can’t get to April 12 fast enough ⏳ brettoninthewoods.substack.com/p/can-hungar...
brettoninthewoods.substack.com
Can Hungary Vote Out Its Autocrat?
Musings on the politics & political economy of Orbánism ahead of the April 12 election
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Interesting that they felt the need to do that given how wide the margin of victory was.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
Let me know if you do! Re voter tourism: haven’t seen any specific indicators but I wonder if it’s possible for them to have dual nationals in RO, SL, RS, UA register to swing constituencies and bus them in en masse on the day. Happened in RS with Serb voters from Bosnia, for example.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
1. Uniformly = projection of nationwide result across individual seats, i.e. based on almost certainly incorrect assumption that party performance will be distributed evenly. 2. Yes, swapping out United for Hungary for Tisza. Intention is simply to demonstrate plausibility of the scenario.
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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
If Fidesz wins 39 seats on party-list basis, holds 43 very safe seats, then if it can hold 18 further seats in the 10-24 bracket by narrow margins, then it secures a majority. Even though Tisza has a wide lead nationwide. At the very least, it can narrow Tisza's majority considerably.
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