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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

The Exposure Risk Index follows the Interdependence Index, which was released in 2025 captures how close the candidate states are to the major geopolitical actors in the region; namely, the EU, USA, Russia, China and Turkey. The Interdependence Index is currently being updated. 3/4

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

The Exposure Risk Index compiles rich sources of data to create a heat map of the structural vulnerabilities of the candidate states to various forms of manipulation by external actors. It focus on four dimensions: 2/4

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 11/03/2026

As part of the @geopower-eu.bsky.social project, an EU Horizon consortium in which VE Insight is involved, partners are creating indices to capture geopolitical vulnerabilities of the 9 EU candidate states. The most recent is the Exposure Risk Index: geo-power.eu/research-out... 1/4

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 13/05/2025

..it is possible for Dan to squeak a narrow win. In the 2014 runoff, when Klaus Iohannis faced Victor Ponta, the polls were widening for Ponta until voting day. Iohannis pulled a blinder by mobilising undecided or otherwise apathetic voters, especially in the diaspora. 2/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

But the new power constellation, with its many factions and interests, is as fragile as the stakes are high. It will not take much for this house of cards to collapse. With the uncertain geopolitical and economic outlook, the Second Republic has major challenges ahead. 24/END

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

That said, it could be a wait of 4.5 years, which is a long time. And even if the FPÖ clears up next time, it will still need a willing coalition partner. Rumblings against Kickl could begin, as his intransigence is a liability given that it led to the FPÖ unnecessarily kept from power. 22/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Fourth, the FPÖ has good cards. Comfortable in opposition, Kickl will rail against the establishment parties dirtying their snouts at the public trough, having locked him out of government. If the government struggles, Kickl can conceivably bank on winning 35-40% of the vote next time. 21/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Third, there is the question of competence. Most of the cabinet have negligible experience of government, not least Stocker and Babler. It says something when the most experienced ministers are ÖVP apparatchiks and party placeholders from Lower Austria and Tyrol. 20/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

The NEOS, with its decentralised leadership structure, is also something of a wild card. Their leader and incoming foreign minister, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, is charismatic and energetic, but not entirely in control of the party, which has a mercurial neoliberal faction. 19/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

A leadership change would not necessarily destabilise the government. The ÖVP and SPÖ have both swapped out leaders before without pulling the plug. Equally, both parties are as fragile as they are directionless, making them as unpredictable as an old car with broken steering and brakes. 18/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

It is not inconceivable that, as the painful realities of cohabitation set in, leadership challenges will ensue. Babler, an outsider in the SPÖ, has many enemies and a lacklustre electoral record. In the ÖVP, the nostalgic and deluded dream of a glorious return by Sebastian Kurz. 17/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Second, the ÖVP and SPÖ are in a sorry condition. Both Stocker and Babler lack the authority within their own parties. Stocker, the accidental chancellor, originally replaced Nehammer on an interim basis, before settling in place because no alternative candidates stepped forward. 16/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

First, it is taking on the thankless task of fiscal consolidation following two years of recession, as well as high levels of inflation and overspending. In 2025 and 2026 alone, the government has committed to finding €16bn in revenue, which it has structured to avoid burden on individuals. 14/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Indeed, although many participants and observers may be breathing a sigh of relief that Herbert Kickl will not achieve his dream of becoming “Volkskanzler,” this new government – the GroKo Plus – faces strong headwinds. 13/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

The coalition agreement is very Austrian in being a Proporz smorgasbord of compromises serving the clientele and constituents of the participating parties. Pragmatism is welcome, but the overarching strategic vision is lacking. It is a peculiar power constellation, with many cooks at the broth. 12/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

It was possible to conclude these within a week, with all three parties making significant concessions they previously resisted. Now, Christian Stocker, a backroom politician thrust onto centre stage, will become chancellor, flanked by Andi Babler, the SPÖ’s left-wing leader. 7/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Thus, after a day of bizarre last ditch negotiations conducted through the press service, the FPÖ and ÖVP decided to go their separate ways. Soon, under pressure from President Alexander Van der Bellen, the ÖVP resurrected its expired negotiations with the SPÖ and NEOS. 6/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

Yet, after four weeks of negotiations, the ÖVP realised that the FPÖ, led by Herbert Kickl, was not only largely uncompromising on its agenda, but wished to subjugate its partner. Gazing into the abyss, the ÖVP realised that the low odds of survival by jumping into it were not worth it. 5/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

These negotiations lasted over 100 days before the wheels came off at the last minute. Stakeholders in the ÖVP prompted a shift, opting to enter negotiations with the FPÖ after all. Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer resigned, replaced by his General secretary, Christian Stocker. 4/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

A recap: the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) came first in the elections with 28.9% of the vote, but due to the refusal of all other parties to partner with the FPÖ, the ÖVP was mandated to start negotiations to form a three-party coalition with the SPÖ and NEOS. 3/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 27/02/2025

*🇦🇹 MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA.. 🇦🇹* And it’s (sort of) final! The People’s Party (ÖVP), Social Democrats (SPÖ) and NEOS have formed a centrist coalition government, ending a rollercoaster of three rounds of negotiations that lasted 151 days – the longest period in Austria’s post-war history. 1/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

As has ever been the case since 2017, Austria has not failed to deliver political drama, nor will it cease to do so. The FPÖ might not be entering government now, with Kickl experiencing a major personal failure, at least on paper; but the political centre is far from being out of the woods. 27/END

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

The third scenario is that snap elections are held in the next 3-6 months. This is unlikely, as the ÖVP and SPÖ currently have nothing to gain by doing so, as they are lacking strategic orientation as well as the money. The FPÖ, meanwhile, is in the opposite position. 24/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

The second scenario is that the ÖVP and SPÖ restart negotiations for a grand coalition, probably supported in some way or other by the NEOS and Greens. The SPÖ has signalled its willingness. However, party leader Andi Babler remains a major obstacle for the ÖVP. 23/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Austria had experience of this in 2019, following the infamous Ibiza scandal. The technocratic government at that time was successful in calming the mood and was popular with the public. It was in power for six months, with snap elections falling in-between. 22/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

So, what now? There are three scenarios. The first and most likely is that President Alexander Van der Bellen mandates the formation of a technocratic government that will begin budget consolidation and ensure stability. It would be supported by all parties but the FPÖ in parliament. 21/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

This is flawed thinking. Even if the FPÖ increases it gains in snap elections, Austria’s proportional system will still require partnership with the ÖVP. Treating its junior partner contemptuously, turning it into the character “Reek” in Game of Thrones, is not a recipe for stability. 19/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Indeed, with the collapse of negotiations, the ÖVP complained that over five weeks, Kickl had participated personally for a total of just seven hours. If true, it shows the supreme confidence that Kickl had that he can simply sit back and insist that the ÖVP accommodate the FPÖ, not vice versa. 18/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Third, while the ÖVP has shifted considerably to the right, the FPÖ under Kickl’s leadership has renounced the old system wholesale. Unlike many of his European counterparts, Kickl is genuine in this conviction. He does not want a slice of the existing cake, but wants to bake a new one. 17/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

This reflects three points: first, Kickl is unwilling to offer meaningful compromise because his experience of the FPÖ’s previous stints in government taught him that the ÖVP would exploit this to shaft his party when opportune. Second, he believes the FPÖ’s relative majority = supremacy. 16/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Yet this was insufficient. Ceding finance to the FPÖ was one thing, but the ÖVP’s experience of Kickl as interior minister in 2018-2019 is not one it will repeat under any circumstances. The mood among party stakeholders, already low, began to sour further. Leaks from the negotiations ensued. 14/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

This was utterly unacceptable to the ÖVP. The FPÖ compromised somewhat, relinquishing the EU brief to the foreign ministry and proposing an independent state secretary for the intelligence service (DSN). The ÖVP was also to receive numerically more ministries. 13/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Indeed, leaked documents from the negotiations showed that the FPÖ was insisting on controversial policies, such as: a halt to any further integration by Austria into EU structures; withdrawal from NATO’s Partnership for Peace and the EU’s PESCO as well as the European Sky Shield Initiative.. 10/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

However, Kickl kept to as maximalist position as he could. Despite the FPÖ having won just 3% points more than the ÖVP in the election, Kickl believed that his party had a mandate to implement much of its agenda, which crosses the stated red lines of the ÖVP. 8/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Third, the ÖVP misread Herbert Kickl, believing that he would ultimately be compelled to be pragmatic by the horse-trading nature of Austria’s proportional, consensus-based system. Rapid progress over budget consolidation and other policy areas brought a false sense of security. 7/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

Second, the ÖVP was not entering the negotiations from a position of strength. As the second largest party, it could not claim the chancellery. It had also shed much of its remaining credibility with its U-turn. What did it really stand for? Thus, it could only engage in damage control. 6/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

However, in abandoning its electoral pledge, the ÖVP spiralled into a crisis for three reasons. First, despite purging Nehammer, no alternative leadership candidates were waiting in the wings. Nehammer’s general secretary Christian Stocker stepped in, but the vacuum howled. 5/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

The shift by the ÖVP was precipitated by strong pressure by the Industrial Association (IV) and Business Union, which are key stakeholders in the party. They were hostile to partnership with the SPÖ, especially its left-wing leader Andi Babler, believing there to be more overlap with the FPÖ. 4/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

In so doing, the ÖVP abandoned its embargo on partnership with the FPÖ if it entailed party leader Herbert Kickl leading the government. Chancellor and ÖVP leader Karl Nehammer, who had described Kickl as a “security risk” with genuine conviction, resigned consequently. 3/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

A recap: The ÖVP decided to enter coalition negotiations with the FPÖ in January, following the collapse of its talks to form a grand coalition with the SPÖ, with the centrist NEOS bolstering its razor-thin majority as a junior partner. 2/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 12/02/2025

*MEANWHILE, IN AUSTRIA..* And so, it’s official and so begin the mutual recriminations: the FPÖ and ÖVP have pulled the plug on their coalition talks, plunging the country into uncertainty as irreconcilable differences between the major parties preclude them from any viable paths to power. 1/27

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

If Kickl does enter government, as is likely, his instincts will be majoritarian. As he put it: "Law must follow politics, not politics the law." Unlike Strache, the trappings of power and clientelist bargaining are secondary to his long-term designs for the state. 25/END

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Regardless, Kickl is feared across the political landscape. He is equal parts an ideologue and power politician. In the coalition negotiations with the ÖVP he holds most of the cards, knowing that the FPÖ would likely secure further landslide gains in snap elections. 24/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

And although famously self-controlled and combative, he was described as “highly nervous” when he was questioned by a parliamentary committee about Russia-related activities. He is far more cautious on this issue than his predecessors, but his record is mysterious. 23/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

That betrays his thin-skinned nature, which is easily slighted and harbouring of grudges. He was supposedly badly injured when, in a quip, he misattributed Friedrich Nietzsche’s phrase “God is dead” to Karl Marx, damaging his self-image as a philosophising intellectual. 22/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

Indeed, while Kickl is the most experienced frontline politician in Austria, since he became leader, he moved past his introversion to discover his ego, thriving in the warm glow of a theatre in which the audience is adoring. But for that same reason, he abhors scrutiny. 21/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

And so, where Haider and Strache sought dialogue (i.e. confrontation) to gain attention, courting tabloid media, Kickl has siloed himself and the party in an eco-system of friendly media. He prizes message control, in this sense resembling Sebastian Kurz more than Haider. 20/

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Marcus How @marcus-how.bsky.social · 09/01/2025

An example: Kickl often speaks in quasi-religious language, playing to the gallery of Catholic conservatism in Austria. But he has also been openly hostile to the Catholic Church in the country, effectively rejecting an institution he regards as being soft on social issues. 19/

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