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If either independent finishes above Labor, I imagine they'd be able to win the seat against the Liberals. I'd personally say I think Moore will finish as LIB v ALP, but it's really anyone's game. Anyways, thank you for reading and another thread will be out soon! 24/24 🧵

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Goodenough is interestingly running an open how-to-vote card, which could very well see Labor elected if he were not to finish in the top 2. Labor is preferencing both independents above the Libs, while the Greens are preferencing Labor 2nd & Goodenough below the Libs. 23/24 🧵

Goodenough has run a strong election campaign here, but so have multiple other candidates - Including fellow independent Nathan Barton, backed by "Voices of Moore". Labor, who were just 0.6% from winning last time, are running their candidate Tom French once again. 22/24 🧵

🔵⚪️ MOORE (WA) Lastly, the seat of Moore, where a staggering 4-cornered contest has developed. Incumbent MP Ian Goodenough lost Liberal preselection to former MP Vince Connelly last year, and has since quit the party, posing a serious threat to the Liberals. 21/24 🧵

Once again, this is one of those seats where the Liberals have faced serious problems in the past few months as Labor have recovered - I mean, at a state level, the Liberals their worst results here. I think Chaney is safe, but still one to keep track of. 20/24 🧵

⚪️ CURTIN (WA) Onto Curtin! A safe liberal seat for most of its entire existence, Curtin voted for Kate Chaney in 2022, a "teal independent", along with a string of affluent upper class seats across the country. 19/24 🧵

She performed well in the state seat of Fremantle, but the federal seat is much bigger, taking in suburbs like Cockburn, which are probably less friendly to independents. Though, if she can overtake the Greens, it's quite possible she catches up to Labor on preferences. 18/24 🧵

Notably, Hulett has differentiated herself from other independent candidates this election - Notably, her platform is considerably to the left of "teal" independents - With policies like free TAFE, universal healthcare, opposing AUKUS, and even a ban on HTV cards. 17/24 🧵

🔴 FREMANTLE (WA) Slightly south of the seat of Tangney is Fremantle, a Labor seat that is seeing a serious challenge from independent Kate Hulett, who was inches away from winning the state seat of Fremantle just 2 months ago. 16/24 🧵

Combine that with polls showing Labor may get a swing towards them in WA, and the "sophomore surge" for the Labor MP Sam Lim, I think it's safe to say that Labor must be feeling pretty good about their chances here now. (image from pollbludger.net) 15/24 🧵

The Liberals were well placed to take this seat last year, but as Labor have surged in the polls, so have their chances in Tangney. In fact, at the WA state election a month ago, the Liberals saw some of their smallest swings towards them in this seat. 14/24 🧵

🔴 TANGNEY (WA) Back to a more "traditional contest", Tangney has generally been considered one of the closest seats this election. Formerly a safe Liberal seat, Tangney fell to Labor in one of the biggest shocks of the 2022 election. 13/24 🧵

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The main problem for the Greens though is that the Liberals are looking increasingly weak in WA, especially in Perth. It's looking increasingly difficult for the Liberals to overtake Labor and push them into 3rd, which will be a necessity for a Greens win. 12/24 🧵

Adam Bandt recently named it as one of the Greens' most winnable seats this election, and for good reason. If the final count were to finish between the Greens and Liberals, Greens candidate and local councillor Sophie Greer could very well pick up the seat. 11/24 🧵

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🔴 PERTH (WA) Anyways, lets move onto the seat of Perth! Traditionally a marginal seat, Labor's margin expanded to 15% last election, seeing incumbent Patrick Gorman easily re-elected against the Libs. Rather, instead of the Libs, it's the Greens looking for a gain. 10/24 🧵

The problem for Davie's lies in 2 things; 1 - Labor are preferencing the Liberals ahead of her 2 - Her popularity is mainly in the seat's rural areas and not the suburbs, where most of the population resides. She can win if she overtakes the Liberals, but it'll be tough. 9/24 🧵

Another interesting factor here is the Nationals, who are running former WA Nationals leader Mia Davies. She's established herself as a more centrist figure in the WA Nats, & she has a strong name recognition in Bullwinkel's rural areas, but not so much in the suburbs. 8/24 🧵

Although WA could very well swing to Labor again, the problem for Labor in Bullwinkel is that they don't have an incumbent MP (since the seat was, well, just created). This area swung particularly strongly to the Liberals at the state election as well. 7/24 🧵

🔴 BULLWINKEL (WA) To the north is the newly created seat of Bullwinkel, which was notionally won by Labor by around 3% last election. It combines safe Labor areas in Perth's outer-east with safe Liberal areas in the Wheatbelt. 6/24 🧵

Labor saw an 8% swing here in 2022, but it was well below the average swing Labor saw in WA last election (almost 11%) - Likely because of Hastie's personal popularity. A redistribution has cut the margin to just 1%, but I think Labor's realized too late they could win. 5/24 🧵

🔵 CANNING (WA) Here's another formerly safe Liberal seat - Canning, currently held by Andrew Hastie, has entered the spotlight in the past few weeks, with polls showing Labor possibly making *gains* in WA. 4/24 🧵

This time, long time MP Nola Marino is retiring, and a new figure has entered the race - Sue Chapman, backed by local group "Voices for Forrest". With the Liberals failing to regain in polls after their landslide loss in 2022, Chapman could be in with a shot. 3/24 🧵

🔵 FORREST (WA) Starting off with Forrest today - located in WA's south west corner, covering areas like Bunbury, Busselton and Margaret River. It's voted for the Libs since 1972, and has generally been safe until 2022, when Labor cut Nola Marino's margin to 4%. 2/24 🧵

8 days until election day, can you believe it! Here's another thread on interesting seats to keep track of as the election approaches - this time focusing on electorates in WA. 1/24 🧵

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And thats it for this thread, thank you for reading - Sorry this is so long, planning to cut this down in future! 26/26 🧵

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"Teal" candidate Verity Cooper is also running, but it's hard to see her making headway in a 4-cornered contest like Sturt. Chances are, we'll see Labor end up gaining this seat, but one of the other contenders (namely the Liberals) could pull off a surprise. 25/26 🧵

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But the Greens have also made a big effort to win the seat, with Adam Bandt naming Sturt as one of the Greens' main target seats this election, having been encouraged by a strong result in the Dunstan state by-election, within the electorate. 24/26 🧵

This time, Labor has made a concerted effort to gain the seat, choosing local councillor Claire Cutterham as their candidate. The aforementioned popular Labor state government, and generally strong ground campaign is likely to deliver the seat to Labor. 23/26 🧵

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🔵 STURT (SA) The last seat for today is the complex contest of Sturt, located in Adelaide's east. James Stevens' holds the seat by just 0.5% for the Liberals after a 6% swing away from them in 2022, despite a fairly low quality candidate from Labor last election. 22/26 🧵

The only interesting factor is the reemergence of former MP Nicolle Flint, who represented the seat for the Libs from 2016-2022. She retired before the 2022 election, but will be contesting the seat once again - though it's hard to see this flipping to the Liberals. 21/26 🧵

🔴 BOOTHBY (SA) Over to SA! Here we have the southern Adelaide seat of Boothby, which voted Labor in 2022 for the first time since 1946. It's a marginal seat for Labor (3%), but a particularly popular state government will likely deliver this seat to Labor again. 20/26 🧵

The real question is whether the Tasmanian 2022 result was a fluke or not - It bucked the trend in 2022 by swinging towards the Libs, despite a nationwide swing away. The lack of polling here has made this a hard question to answer, so we'll have to wait for May 3rd. 19/26

Gavin Pearce is retiring after only a 6-year tenure representing the seat, and Labor are fielding senator Anne Urquhart, who has stepped down mid-term to contest the seat. it's a big margin though, which will be hard to overturn. 18/26 🧵

🔵 BRADDON (TAS) The last Tasmanian seat is Braddon, based around Tassie's north-west coast. Braddon has generally been very conservative at the state level, and federal results changed to reflect this, with MP Gavin Pearce receiving a 5% swing towards him in 2022. 17/26 🧵

Archer was able to narrowly retain her seat last election with a 1.4% margin, but it'll still be difficult for her this time around. Labor are running a strong campaign around their candidate Jess Teesdale, and it looks like MRP's have started saying Bass might flip. 16/26 🧵

🔵 BASS (TAS) Our first Liberal seat! Based around Launceston, Bass was once known as the 'ejector' seat, on the basis that it had never re-elected an MP for 2 decades. Archer broke this streak in 2022, getting re-elected with a 1% swing in her favour. 15/26 🧵

The Liberals are running Susie Bower again, after she almost won the seat in 2022, with a 4% swing in her favour after preferences. This seat is trending to the Liberals, but White has a huge personal vote in the area, so this seat could really come down to the wire. 14/26 🧵

🔴 LYONS (TAS) The next seat is the central Tasmanian seat of Lyons, which is held on just 1% against the Liberals. Incumbent Brian Mitchell is retiring, with former Tas Labor leader Rebecca White replacing him as the ALP candidate. 13/26

The problem for Peter George here is that the Liberals have opted to preference Labor ahead of him on their how-to-vote cards, which will make it much harder to chase Collins down on preferences. Chances are this will stay with Labor, but who knows! 12/26 🧵

Peter George is running on an environmentalist and anti-salmon farming platform, which could very well make headway in a seat like this. Notably, the Greens candidate here, Owen Fitzgerald, has suspended campaigning after discovering he was ineligible. 11/26 🧵

🔴 FRANKLIN (TAS) Heading to Tassie is the seat of Franklin, in Tasmania's south, where Julie Collins has held the seat for 18 years. The Liberals are weak here - instead, the challenge comes from independent candidate Peter George. 10/26 🧵

The Greens are also running strong, after winning the seat of Nightcliff in Darwin at the NT election, and falling a few dozen votes short of the seat of Fannie Bay. For the Greens to win though, they'd likely have to overtake Labor, which seems like a tough ask. 9/26 🧵

Of course, things have changed since last time - The Labor government has improved from its lows in late 2024, and there are new challengers this time, with "Voices of the Top End" candidate Phil Scott running a big campaign in the seat. 8/26 🧵

This time around though, things have changed. The CLP saw double-digit swings towards them at the NT election last year within the seat, leaving Labor with 0 Darwin/Palmerston seats. A similar swing would see the CLP comfortably gain the seat, but that might not happen. 7/26 🧵

🔴 SOLOMON (NT) Meanwhile in the other seat within the NT, Solomon could also be in play, despite it's 8.4% margin. Traditionally the more conservative seat of the 2, Solomon swung hard to the left last election, meaning incumbent Luke Gosling was easily re-elected. 6/26 🧵

If turnout in Labor heartland (remote + rural areas) continues to decrease, CLP candidate Lisa Siebert could very well win the seat, and issues like youth crime could be to Labor's detriment. It'll be a long count for whoever wins though, so we'll have to wait and see. 5/26 🧵