Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Put differently: this is my effort to bring what I learned in survey methodology courses to the Econ expectations crowd 000
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 18/09/2026New wp put! Are you interested in measuring uncertainty? We show that probabilistic expectations underestimate uncertainty in surveys, and do it systematically for those with less financial literacy or less willing to think probabilistically. 010
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 01/09/2026Discussing politics it is inevitable to discuss preferences. Yet, my impression is that most discussions— especially among economists fail to frame into what I consider the starting point of what is known in poli sci. So I wrote a post that I can link lnkd.in/eqm4E2mb 010
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 18/08/2026Élite competence and policy lmguirola.substack.com/p/has-elite-...lmguirola.substack.comHas elite incompetence led to worse policies?If technocrats were "better" in the past, technology is likely to compensate it. 011
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/07/2026Check our paper with @laurahospido.bsky.social @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social on how soccer is related to gender inequality!! 020
Reposted by Luis GuirolaLaura Hospido @laurahospido.bsky.social · 02/07/2026Some coincidences make you smile: Spain plays in the World Cup today, and our paper with @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social and @luisguirola.bsky.social has just been published online link.springer.com/article/10.1... Opening the thread with the main takeaway (1/4) 164
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 03/06/2026Today I have presented my paper on firms’ response to paternity leave with @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social at SEHO 2026, one of those conferences that feel like home, in Pavia. . #seho2026 020
Reposted by Luis GuirolaFrancesc Amat @cescamat.bsky.social · 04/05/2026📢 Postdoc opportunity at @UB-IPERG (University of Barcelona) 1-year position in Historical Political Economy. 💶 €35–40k | Start: Fall 2026 🗓️ Deadline for Expressions of Interest: June 5, 2026 All the info: 🔗 www.ub.edu/iperg/postdo...ub.eduPostdoctoral Position in Historical Political Economy at the University of Barcelona (UB-IPERG) – IPERG 12122
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 20/04/2026Aren’t these type of common shocks what typically burst bubble by coordinating beliefs back to a lower equilibrium? Not sure, finance is really not my area. 010
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 15/04/2026Word and power point, not to say excel, are the root of all evil. 000
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/04/2026It was a pleasure to present my work in a double session on paternity leave and polarization today at the economics department of La Laguna. Thank you to Daniel Santos and the rest for inviting me for a wonderful evening. 020
Reposted by Luis GuirolaRichard McElreath 🐈⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 07/04/2026I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI. 1237956
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 05/04/2026Does the 'cordon sanitaire' actually stop the radical right, or does it just fuel the anti-establishment vote? People discuss this all the time, so I tried to organize my thoughts about it open.substack.com/pub/lmguirol...open.substack.comThoughts on the Cordon SanitaireHow could excluding the Radical Right from politics Actually Work? 000
Reposted by Luis GuirolaJordi Paniagua @jordipaniagua.bsky.social · 27/03/2026“Lo siguiente, ¿qué será? No estamos seguros, pero lo seguiremos con interés y cariño, como han hecho tantos lectores nuestros durante tanto tiempo. Estamos muy agradecidos por ello. Ha sido un privilegio escribir para ustedes y esperamos haber sido de alguna utilidad. Hasta siempre.” 094
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 09/03/2026Last Friday JFV argued that money explains why people in Spain distrust experts and the press. I happen to have worked on the topic, and I wrote a substack open.substack.com/pub/luisg2/p... You may want to follow me for future updates. I plan to write on everything from economics to metaphysics.open.substack.comDon't believe the hype.Government control and the shadow of polarization on the media 020
Reposted by Luis GuirolaAlice Reid @amrcampop.bsky.social · 31/07/2025We've done it: 60 blogs over our 60th Anniversary Year! Check out all 60 #Campop blogs here www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/, and keep your eyes peeled for occasional blogs to follow in the same space! @camunicampop.bsky.social @camunigeography.bsky.social @camhistory.bsky.socialcampop.geog.cam.ac.ukThe Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Cambridge 0188
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/07/2025La semana pasada me estrené en el mundo de los podcast/ con Darío de Flake agency. Hablamos de desigualdad, de generaciones y de economía politica de la polarización youtu.be/B52WBhmlD54?...youtu.beVivienda, jóvenes y política ¿Tienen solución? | Luis GuirolaYouTube video by Flake Podcast 030
Reposted by Luis GuirolaNada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 18/06/2025Brechas de género en educación y formación de familias nadaesgratis.es/admin/brecha... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economíanadaesgratis.esBrechas de género en educación y formación de familiasPor Ana Rodríguez-González En las últimas décadas, los niveles de educación de las mujeres han aumentado mucho más que los de los hombres en muchos países, predominantemente en aquellos de rentas alta... 096
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 15/06/2025ESPE 2025 was a really fun conference :-) I am transitioning to become a veteran/old guy at these conferences, as all the faces are now familiar. @christinafelfe.bsky.social @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social 050
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 14/06/2025Final lecture at #espe2025 by Aby Adams on violence against women. 030
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 12/06/2025Ready for ESPE 2025 with @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social and Ruben in Naples 030
Reposted by Luis GuirolaCristina Bellés Obrero @cristina-belles.bsky.social · 11/06/2025No os perdáis la entrada de hoy en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social: @beleninininina.bsky.social, @adequinto.bsky.social y @laurahospido.bsky.social muestran cómo el primer hijo cambia el uso del tiempo: las madres cambian empleo por cuidado, los padres casi intactos. 0118
Reposted by Luis GuirolaMaría Hernández-de-Benito @mariahdb.bsky.social · 03/06/2025⭐Check out our @voxdev.bsky.social blog on son preference and family structure in sub-Saharan Africa with @ggenicot.bsky.social 👇👇👇 083
Reposted by Luis GuirolaNBER @nber.org · 01/06/2025Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w33858 0135
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 29/05/2025Today at Fundación Ramón Areces listening to Barbara Petrongolo. @laurahospido.bsky.social @juditvall.bsky.social 040
Reposted by Luis GuirolaNada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 28/05/2025Programa de Estabilización en Argentina: ¿Qué Tan Diferente Es Esta Vez? nadaesgratis.es/admin/progra... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economíanadaesgratis.esPrograma de Estabilización en Argentina: ¿Qué Tan Diferente Es Esta Vez?Por Hernán Seoane El contexto al inicio del programa En diciembre de 2023, Argentina implementó un nuevo programa de estabilización. La situación económica del país era delicada. La economía no había ... 003
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 27/05/2025Today we are seeing Olivier Coibion at Bank of Spain. 010
Reposted by Luis GuirolaSara Ayllón @ayllonsara.bsky.social · 02/05/2025Al Departament d'Economia se'ns ha concedit un ajut predoctoral FI_SDUR. Si estàs interessat/da a fer un doctorat en pobresa, gènere, mercat de treball, microeconometria... et pots posar en contacte amb mi! #PhD #economics #econbluesky 125
Reposted by Luis GuirolaLucía Gorjón @luciagorjon.bsky.social · 14/05/2025El cheque bebé no provocó mejoras en la salud ni en el rendimiento académico, pero sí incrementó el gasto en electrodomésticos y reformas del hogar. Ante una posible #PrestaciónUniversalporCrianza en España, estos resultados abren el debate sobre la necesidad de condicionar su uso. 156
Reposted by Luis GuirolaLaia Bosque-Mercader @laiabosque.bsky.social · 14/05/2025📇 Hoy escribo en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social sobre la salud de nuestras madres. ¿Cómo se ve afectada por la maternidad y las políticas de conciliación familiar? 👩🍼💊 ⬇️ Resultados del estudio con mi súper coautora @marabarschkett.bsky.social 094
Reposted by Luis GuirolaJudit Vall Castelló @juditvall.bsky.social · 09/05/2025Volem impulsar un projecte per a la nostra Facultat @economiaempresaub.bsky.social amb visió de futur i amb energia renovada. Us convidem a l’acte de presentació el dimarts 13 de maig, a les 11.30 h, a la Sala de Graus. @ub.edu També podeu seguir l’acte en línia. Més informació ➡ sumemiavancem.cat 074
Reposted by Luis GuirolaPablo Beramendi @pberamendi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025At Duke we are all extremely happy and proud of our colleague Herbert Kitschelt, recipient of the 2025 Johan Skytte award. A very well deserved recognition! Congratulations! trinity.duke.edu/news/herbert...trinity.duke.eduHerbert P. Kitschelt Awarded the 2025 Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science 1438
Reposted by Luis GuirolaNada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 02/05/2025La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo nadaesgratis.es/admin/la-bre... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economíanadaesgratis.esLa brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijoPor José I. Silva Las mujeres enfrentan un coste laboral importante por ser madres, incluso en países con sistemas de bienestar consolidados. En España, ese coste se manifiesta con fuerza en el mer... 0912
Reposted by Luis GuirolaAdam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 30/04/2025Here is WEEK 11: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-11 Also appended to the entire Diary: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diaryadamprzeworski.substack.comWEEK 11Wednesday, April 23 02310
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 29/04/2025What do fathers do when they are on paternity leave? Joint work with @laurahospido.bsky.social and @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social focus.bse.eu/do-fathers-u...focus.bse.euDo Fathers Use Paternity Leave for Childcare or Leisure?Libertad Gonzalez, Luis Guirola and Laura Hospido analyze how men in Spain schedule and use their paternity leave time 041
Reposted by Luis GuirolaNada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 22/04/2025Barrios, Percepciones sobre Desigualdad y Preferencias por la Redistribución: Evidencia de Barcelona nadaesgratis.es/admin/barrio... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economíanadaesgratis.esBarrios, Percepciones sobre Desigualdad y Preferencias por la Redistribución: Evidencia de BarcelonaPor Gerard Domènech Arumí Extensa investigación muestra que la desigualdad de ingresos y riqueza ha aumentado en las últimas décadas (por ejemplo, este artículo). Sin embargo, parece que hay una desc... 088
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 10/04/2025Not that long ago, before my first R&R I thought we would live in an era of short papers. Now I can hardly see how. Reviewers demand all type of robustness checks and (I feel) strongly distrust papers that are short. Main results are complete by pg 15, but final paper may be 35 pages+appendices. 100
Reposted by Luis GuirolaMark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 09/04/2025Congrats again to the well-credentialed & well-connected Northeast Corridor Democratic elites who told us that Scott Bessent was a well-qualified & credible Treasury Secretary because he also had the right credentials & elite connections (bsky.app/profile/mcop...). 15613
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/04/2025Is this the end of an era? I was born in 1985; I grew up in the “era of globalization” and “neoliberalism”. For decades you could predict attitudes (>55% in any standard survey) of any politically active person in the western world based on their stance on free trade and open markets. Not any more 110
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/03/2025Today is woman’s day. With @laurahospido.bsky.social and a few persons from the @ecb.europa.eu team we wrote a short thing on gender convergence www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d... Let check it out!ecb.europa.euThe gender gap at work is closing – but slowlyThe European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purch... 093
Reposted by Luis GuirolaUB School of Economics @ubeconomics.bsky.social · 20/01/2025Today's #seminar: 'Partisan Abortions' 🗣️@luisguirola.bsky.social (Banco de España) ⏰12:30 📍Room 1038, 690 Building 🔗https://s.mtrbio.com/dkmqayvoin 🗃️ERC - @fundacioieb.bsky.social seminar #Economics #EconSky 001
Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 27/11/2024Voy a añadir a mi CV “soy capaz de elegir restaurantes que impresionan y a @juditvall.bsky.social“ Y mejora con la compañía. 110