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Luis Guirola

@luisguirola.bsky.social
393 followers 358 following 55 posts

Political economist (Duke PhD 2021). Interested inhouseholds gender, economic expectations and polarization, as well as #Rstats. Daily lifter/puller. Webstite: sites.google.com/view/lmguirola/home

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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Put differently: this is my effort to bring what I learned in survey methodology courses to the Econ expectations crowd
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
New wp put! Are you interested in measuring uncertainty? We show that probabilistic expectations underestimate uncertainty in surveys, and do it systematically for those with less financial literacy or less willing to think probabilistically.
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 01/09/2026
Discussing politics it is inevitable to discuss preferences. Yet, my impression is that most discussions— especially among economists fail to frame into what I consider the starting point of what is known in poli sci. So I wrote a post that I can link lnkd.in/eqm4E2mb
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Élite competence and policy lmguirola.substack.com/p/has-elite-...
lmguirola.substack.com
Has elite incompetence led to worse policies?
If technocrats were "better" in the past, technology is likely to compensate it.
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/07/2026
Check our paper with @laurahospido.bsky.social @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social on how soccer is related to gender inequality!!
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Laura Hospido @laurahospido.bsky.social · 02/07/2026
Some coincidences make you smile: Spain plays in the World Cup today, and our paper with @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social and @luisguirola.bsky.social has just been published online link.springer.com/article/10.1... Opening the thread with the main takeaway (1/4)
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 03/06/2026
Today I have presented my paper on firms’ response to paternity leave with @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social at SEHO 2026, one of those conferences that feel like home, in Pavia. . #seho2026
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Francesc Amat @cescamat.bsky.social · 04/05/2026
📢 Postdoc opportunity at @UB-IPERG (University of Barcelona) 1-year position in Historical Political Economy. 💶 €35–40k | Start: Fall 2026 🗓️ Deadline for Expressions of Interest: June 5, 2026 All the info: 🔗 www.ub.edu/iperg/postdo...
ub.edu
Postdoctoral Position in Historical Political Economy at the University of Barcelona (UB-IPERG) – IPERG
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Aren’t these type of common shocks what typically burst bubble by coordinating beliefs back to a lower equilibrium? Not sure, finance is really not my area.
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 15/04/2026
Word and power point, not to say excel, are the root of all evil.
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
It was a pleasure to present my work in a double session on paternity leave and polarization today at the economics department of La Laguna. Thank you to Daniel Santos and the rest for inviting me for a wonderful evening.
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Richard McElreath 🐈‍⬛ @rmcelreath.bsky.social · 07/04/2026
I would have preferred to have the "draw the rest of the owl" meme on the cover, but this will do. Seems like it is on schedule, and we'll leave some typos so you know we didn't write it with AI.
cover of the book "Bayesian Workflow" by Gelman, Vehtari, et al. Coming out later this year, in the summer probably.
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 05/04/2026
Does the 'cordon sanitaire' actually stop the radical right, or does it just fuel the anti-establishment vote? People discuss this all the time, so I tried to organize my thoughts about it open.substack.com/pub/lmguirol...
open.substack.com
Thoughts on the Cordon Sanitaire
How could excluding the Radical Right from politics Actually Work?
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Jordi Paniagua @jordipaniagua.bsky.social · 27/03/2026
“Lo siguiente, ¿qué será? No estamos seguros, pero lo seguiremos con interés y cariño, como han hecho tantos lectores nuestros durante tanto tiempo. Estamos muy agradecidos por ello. Ha sido un privilegio escribir para ustedes y esperamos haber sido de alguna utilidad. Hasta siempre.”
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
Last Friday JFV argued that money explains why people in Spain distrust experts and the press. I happen to have worked on the topic, and I wrote a substack open.substack.com/pub/luisg2/p... You may want to follow me for future updates. I plan to write on everything from economics to metaphysics.
open.substack.com
Don't believe the hype.
Government control and the shadow of polarization on the media
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Alice Reid @amrcampop.bsky.social · 31/07/2025
We've done it: 60 blogs over our 60th Anniversary Year! Check out all 60 #Campop blogs here www.campop.geog.cam.ac.uk/blog/, and keep your eyes peeled for occasional blogs to follow in the same space! @camunicampop.bsky.social @camunigeography.bsky.social @camhistory.bsky.social
campop.geog.cam.ac.uk
The Cambridge Group for the History of Population and Social Structure, Cambridge
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/07/2025
La semana pasada me estrené en el mundo de los podcast/ con Darío de Flake agency. Hablamos de desigualdad, de generaciones y de economía politica de la polarización youtu.be/B52WBhmlD54?...
youtu.be
Vivienda, jóvenes y política ¿Tienen solución? | Luis Guirola
YouTube video by Flake Podcast
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Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 18/06/2025
Brechas de género en educación y formación de familias nadaesgratis.es/admin/brecha... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía
nadaesgratis.es
Brechas de género en educación y formación de familias
Por Ana Rodríguez-González En las últimas décadas, los niveles de educación de las mujeres han aumentado mucho más que los de los hombres en muchos países, predominantemente en aquellos de rentas alta...
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
ESPE 2025 was a really fun conference :-) I am transitioning to become a veteran/old guy at these conferences, as all the faces are now familiar. @christinafelfe.bsky.social @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social
Me my flat mate and the crowdWe went all the way to her hotel, and got late to the dinner. She said it was on the way; nobody believed her. Barcelona Me and the celebrities
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
Fun as always!!!!
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 14/06/2025
Final lecture at #espe2025 by Aby Adams on violence against women.
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
Ready for ESPE 2025 with @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social and Ruben in Naples
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Cristina Bellés Obrero @cristina-belles.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
No os perdáis la entrada de hoy en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social: @beleninininina.bsky.social, @adequinto.bsky.social y @laurahospido.bsky.social muestran cómo el primer hijo cambia el uso del tiempo: las madres cambian empleo por cuidado, los padres casi intactos.
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María Hernández-de-Benito @mariahdb.bsky.social · 03/06/2025
⭐Check out our @voxdev.bsky.social blog on son preference and family structure in sub-Saharan Africa with @ggenicot.bsky.social 👇👇👇
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NBER @nber.org · 01/06/2025
Unanchored inflation expectations make us very susceptible to another surge in inflation, from Olivier Coibion and @ygorodnichenko.bsky.social www.nber.org/papers/w33858
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
I can capture the magic, the moment 🤭🤭🤭
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 29/05/2025
Today at Fundación Ramón Areces listening to Barbara Petrongolo. @laurahospido.bsky.social @juditvall.bsky.social
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Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
Programa de Estabilización en Argentina: ¿Qué Tan Diferente Es Esta Vez? nadaesgratis.es/admin/progra... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía
nadaesgratis.es
Programa de Estabilización en Argentina: ¿Qué Tan Diferente Es Esta Vez?
Por Hernán Seoane El contexto al inicio del programa En diciembre de 2023, Argentina implementó un nuevo programa de estabilización. La situación económica del país era delicada. La economía no había ...
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 27/05/2025
Today we are seeing Olivier Coibion at Bank of Spain.
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Sara Ayllón @ayllonsara.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
Al Departament d'Economia se'ns ha concedit un ajut predoctoral FI_SDUR. Si estàs interessat/da a fer un doctorat en pobresa, gènere, mercat de treball, microeconometria... et pots posar en contacte amb mi! #PhD #economics #econbluesky
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
Sounds like a really cool topic!
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Lucía Gorjón @luciagorjon.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
El cheque bebé no provocó mejoras en la salud ni en el rendimiento académico, pero sí incrementó el gasto en electrodomésticos y reformas del hogar. Ante una posible #PrestaciónUniversalporCrianza en España, estos resultados abren el debate sobre la necesidad de condicionar su uso.
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Laia Bosque-Mercader @laiabosque.bsky.social · 14/05/2025
📇 Hoy escribo en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social sobre la salud de nuestras madres. ¿Cómo se ve afectada por la maternidad y las políticas de conciliación familiar? 👩‍🍼💊 ⬇️ Resultados del estudio con mi súper coautora @marabarschkett.bsky.social
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Judit Vall Castelló @juditvall.bsky.social · 09/05/2025
Volem impulsar un projecte per a la nostra Facultat @economiaempresaub.bsky.social amb visió de futur i amb energia renovada. Us convidem a l’acte de presentació el dimarts 13 de maig, a les 11.30 h, a la Sala de Graus. @ub.edu També podeu seguir l’acte en línia. Més informació ➡ sumemiavancem.cat
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 05/05/2025
America is becoming Latin, in yet another way
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Pablo Beramendi @pberamendi.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
At Duke we are all extremely happy and proud of our colleague Herbert Kitschelt, recipient of the 2025 Johan Skytte award. A very well deserved recognition! Congratulations! trinity.duke.edu/news/herbert...
trinity.duke.edu
Herbert P. Kitschelt Awarded the 2025 Johan Skytte Prize in Political Science
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Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 02/05/2025
La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo nadaesgratis.es/admin/la-bre... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía
nadaesgratis.es
La brecha de género en el paro en torno al nacimiento del primer hijo
Por José I. Silva Las mujeres enfrentan un coste laboral importante por ser madres, incluso en países con sistemas de bienestar consolidados. En España, ese coste se manifiesta con fuerza en el mer...
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Adam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
Here is WEEK 11: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/week-11 Also appended to the entire Diary: adamprzeworski.substack.com/p/diary
adamprzeworski.substack.com
WEEK 11
Wednesday, April 23
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 29/04/2025
What do fathers do when they are on paternity leave? Joint work with @laurahospido.bsky.social and @libertadgonzalez.bsky.social focus.bse.eu/do-fathers-u...
focus.bse.eu
Do Fathers Use Paternity Leave for Childcare or Leisure?
Libertad Gonzalez, Luis Guirola and Laura Hospido analyze how men in Spain schedule and use their paternity leave time
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Nada es Gratis @nadaesgratis.bsky.social · 22/04/2025
Barrios, Percepciones sobre Desigualdad y Preferencias por la Redistribución: Evidencia de Barcelona nadaesgratis.es/admin/barrio... Vía @nadaesgratis.bsky.social #Economía
nadaesgratis.es
Barrios, Percepciones sobre Desigualdad y Preferencias por la Redistribución: Evidencia de Barcelona
Por Gerard Domènech Arumí Extensa investigación muestra que la desigualdad de ingresos y riqueza ha aumentado en las últimas décadas (por ejemplo, este artículo). Sin embargo, parece que hay una desc...
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 10/04/2025
Not that long ago, before my first R&R I thought we would live in an era of short papers. Now I can hardly see how. Reviewers demand all type of robustness checks and (I feel) strongly distrust papers that are short. Main results are complete by pg 15, but final paper may be 35 pages+appendices.
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Mark Copelovitch @mcopelov.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Congrats again to the well-credentialed & well-connected Northeast Corridor Democratic elites who told us that Scott Bessent was a well-qualified & credible Treasury Secretary because he also had the right credentials & elite connections (bsky.app/profile/mcop...).
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
Is this the end of an era? I was born in 1985; I grew up in the “era of globalization” and “neoliberalism”. For decades you could predict attitudes (>55% in any standard survey) of any politically active person in the western world based on their stance on free trade and open markets. Not any more
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
What a golden age to be a trade economist
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
La faraona de health economics
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 08/03/2025
Today is woman’s day. With @laurahospido.bsky.social and a few persons from the @ecb.europa.eu team we wrote a short thing on gender convergence www.ecb.europa.eu/press/blog/d... Let check it out!
ecb.europa.eu
The gender gap at work is closing – but slowly
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank of the European Union countries which have adopted the euro. Our main task is to maintain price stability in the euro area and so preserve the purch...
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 04/02/2025
This would be pretty funny indeed
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UB School of Economics @ubeconomics.bsky.social · 20/01/2025
Today's #seminar: 'Partisan Abortions' 🗣️@luisguirola.bsky.social (Banco de España) ⏰12:30 📍Room 1038, 690 Building 🔗https://s.mtrbio.com/dkmqayvoin 🗃️ERC - @fundacioieb.bsky.social  seminar #Economics #EconSky
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Luis Guirola @luisguirola.bsky.social · 27/11/2024
Voy a añadir a mi CV “soy capaz de elegir restaurantes que impresionan y a @juditvall.bsky.social“ Y mejora con la compañía.
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