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Lionel Page

@lionelpage.bsky.social
8.4K followers 687 following 411 posts

Director of UQ Centre for Unified Behavioural and Economic Sciences. Editor of the Journal of the Economic Science Association. Book: ‘Optimally Irrational’, Substack: www.optimallyirrational.com

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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 9h
A short lesson in game theory.
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Will AI mark the end of low-quality arguments? Our arguments are often filled with sloppy statements and bad-faith takes. AI might improve the quality of our arguments by making it possible to quickly and rigorously assess the statements we make. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/will-ai-ma...
optimallyirrational.com
Will AI mark the end of low quality arguments?
How AI will likely transform our discussions
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
AI is set to change how research is peer reviewed. I discussed about this with Achim Czerny. youtu.be/BI1B-YO8U8A?...
youtu.be
AI vs. peer review — Lionel Page on what breaks and what improves
YouTube video by Achim I. Czerny | Aviation & Maritime Economics
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Bastien Chabe-Ferret (he/his/him) @bastiencf.bsky.social · 06/09/2026
Very much spot on my experience of interacting with sociology!
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
As a researcher and editor, it seems clear to me that frontier models will radically change how research is peer-reviewed. And I think it will be for the better. In this post, I explain why. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/how-ai-wil...
optimallyirrational.com
How AI is going to revolutionise peer-reviewed research
Frontier models will change the way scientific papers are checked, selected and written
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The Dissenter @thedissenteryt.bsky.social · 01/08/2026
In episode 712, I talk with Dr. Lionel Page about his fascinating book, Optimally Irrational: The Good Reasons We Behave the Way We Do. #Economics #behavior #Science youtu.be/1HqSCYtlscE
youtu.be
#712 Lionel Page - Optimally Irrational: The Good Reasons We Behave the Way We Do
YouTube video by The Dissenter
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
🔪"Whenever scientific inquiry is treated as part of a conflict waged against opposing political coalitions, truth is often the first victim."
optimallyirrational.com
Why has sociology become so politicised?
On the underlying reasons behind the ideological drift of the field
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Optimally Irrational @lionelpage.skystack.xyz · 17/08/2026
Why has sociology become so politicised? • On the underlying reasons behind the ideological drift of the field
optimallyirrational.com
Why has sociology become so politicised?
On the underlying reasons behind the ideological drift of the field
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
Many thanks to everyone who follows Optimally Irrational! I am very glad that this Substack devoted to presenting deep insights into human behaviour in an accessible form has found such a large audience. www.optimallyirrational.com
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 04/07/2026
The potential of AIs becoming self-aware is not the most urgent issue, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social: “The key question about future AI risk is not whether AI agents will become self-aware; it is which goals they will have as they become more and more powerful.” buff.ly/4AfIPt6
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 20/06/2026
In the final instalment of his splendid series of posts on morality, @lionelpage.bsky.social ties a nice bow around all the insights that answer the question, “So, what is morality?”, and addresses some outstanding challenges to the conclusions: buff.ly/aVrkIUp
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Will Lowe @conjugateprior.org · 22/06/2026
It is. In case it's of interest, Ken Binmore has my favourite elaboration of social contract theory in the light of a century of game theory. It's explored informally in a nice sequence of substack posts by @lionelpage.bsky.social
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 11/04/2026
Toddlers effortlessly recognize unfairness when they see it—yet agreeing with others what is, and isn’t, fair eludes even learned scholars. @lionelpage.bsky.social wisely avoids trying to definitively define fairness, but digs into how we seek agreement about it: buff.ly/W2SRDsR
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 10/04/2026
How do we agree on what is “fair” without endless haggling? A post on the psychology and game theory of fairness, with a solution to the egalitarian vs utilitarian debate. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/how-we-dec...
optimallyirrational.com
How we decide what is fair in everyday life
Equality or overall satisfaction?
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Fairness is not some mysterious moral force binding our actions. It is a social solution to a pervasive problem: once cooperation creates gains, who gets what? www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-is-fa...
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Antoine Marie PhD @a-marie-sci.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
Robert Trivers, a theoretical genius and likely the Einstein of evolutionary biology, passed away. His theories of reciprocal altruism, parental investment, and self deception are among the deepest and most encompassing in the social sciences. Great post on them by @lionelpage.bsky.social
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
“In several key contributions, Trivers helped lift the veil on the underlying logic of human behaviour.” @lionelpage.bsky.social reviews the work of the scientist deservedly characterized as Darwin’s heir, Robert Trivers, who died two weeks ago: buff.ly/YsCN41T
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Optimally Irrational @lionelpage.skystack.xyz · 09/03/2026
The game theory of cooperation • Explained simply
optimallyirrational.com
The game theory of cooperation
Explained simply
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
One of the most important insights of game theory is that cooperation is often rational. Indeed, it helps us understand why cooperation exists and how it works in practice. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/the-game-t...
optimallyirrational.com
The game theory of cooperation
Explained simply
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
If morality is fundamentally a human affair, then game theory provides a framework that explains morality, argues @lionelpage.bsky.social in the latest instalment of his series on human morality: buff.ly/X5QMJTi
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
Evolution is often framed as a cosmic struggle of all against all. Yet everything we observe about life is the product of cooperation. Understanding how cooperation is sustained is a key insight for thinking about how to organise society. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/cooperatio...
optimallyirrational.com
Cooperation is the scaffolding principle of life
From cells to humans, cooperation is a key principle of evolution
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 06/02/2026
Kant is notoriously hard to read. Here I explain his moral philosophy simply, and I criticise it, drawing on the careful thinking about rationality forged in game theory. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/dekanting-...
optimallyirrational.com
Dekanting moral philosophy
Unconditional moral duties do not follow from pure rationality
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
The seizure makes no strategic sense for the US. It would be one of the biggest acts of geopolitical self-harm a US President has ever committed. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-if-th...
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Cult Podcasts @cultpodcasts.com · 15/01/2026
"161. Lionel Page: Gossip — how Psychopaths Attack your Reputation" Brad Carr Podcast @lionelpage.bsky.social 15 Jan 2026 [1:21:27] #Cult s.cultpodcasts.com/jvFO1WnJCEmzO2ea…
youtube.com
Gossip: How Psychopaths Attack Your Reputation | Lionel Page
Why are psychopaths so skilled at telling lies? Lionel Page explains gossip, lying, and the games of social life. 00:00 In This Episode 00:31 What Makes a Good Liar? 05:07 Why Psychopaths Lack Guilt 06:02 The Purpose of Communication 11:15 The Cost of Lying 14:40 The Key to Reputation 18:17 Guilt Is the Shadow of the Future 19:10 Gossip: How Psychopaths Attack Reputation 25:55 How to Detect Deception 31:05 Psychopaths Are Like Gamblers 36:42 How to Use a Gut Feeling 43:43 How to Deceive Yourself 46:32 Why Do We Watch Sports? 50:44 What Luxury Brands Say About Us 57:43 How to Deter Our Adversaries 1:05:16 Nuclear War and Deterrence 1:11:05 Seeing the Games In Social Life 1:15:50 Find Lionel Page Online 1:16:45 The Game of Interviewing Lionel Page's book: https://amzn.to/4bvCOVF Lionel Page on Substack: https://www.optimallyirrational.com/ Brad's microphone: https://amzn.to/4jVOjqq 🔔 SUBSCRIBE to help get more guests on the show: https://goo.gl/uEAeNp Gossip: The Psychopath's Superpower | Lionel Page Gossip: How Psychopaths Attack Your Reputation | Lionel Page How Psychopaths Use Gossip and Lies to Attack You | Lionel Page Psychopaths Are the Best Liars. This Is How They Do It. | Lionel Page The Real Reason You're Bad at Lying | Lionel Page
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 07/01/2026
Earlier, @lionelpage.bsky.social argued against absolute moral truths. Here he explains how morality can be relative—operationalized as contractarianism—without being moral relativism, subjectivism, and a range of other -isms. A veritable tour-de-force 👏: buff.ly/uqbgcZa
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Optimally Irrational @lionelpage.skystack.xyz · 06/01/2026
Is morality relative? • And if so to what extent
optimallyirrational.com
Is morality relative?
And if so to what extent
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 06/01/2026
Is morality relative to each society? This view is common in the public but unpopular among philosophers. We can see morality as grounded in a society’s social contract--and thus relative--without the usual “anything goes” associated with "relativism". www.optimallyirrational.com/p/is-moralit...
optimallyirrational.com
Is morality relative?
And if so to what extent
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 04/01/2026
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
A key objection to ‘morality as a convention’ (rather than absolute truth) is that ‘anything goes’. @lionelpage.bsky.social deftly counters this argument and shows why its method is flawed, and proposes respect for a social contract as a more robust explanation: buff.ly/LJRPe0b
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Optimally Irrational @lionelpage.skystack.xyz · 22/12/2025
A defence of morality as respect for a social contract • The absence of absolute moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"
optimallyirrational.com
A defence of morality as respect for a social contract
The absence of absolute moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"
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Nicholas A. Christakis @nachristakis.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
Very much this energy : m.youtube.com/watch?v=0mUb...
m.youtube.com
"The missile is too round, it needs to be pointy!" | The Dictator | CLIP
YouTube video by Boxoffice Movie Scenes
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
A defence of morality as respect for a social contract. Moral, legal and ethical systems are conventions, but they are not arbitrary: they are constrained by the structure of conflict and cooperation in society. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/a-defence-...
optimallyirrational.com
Morality as respect for a social contract
The absence of objective moral truths does not mean that "anything is permitted"
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 13/12/2025
Universities worldwide are increasingly shaped by corporate, profit-driven logic. Australia is sadly ahead of the curve. The Parliamentary inquiry report just released rightly points to the core problem: academics have been marginalised in governance. www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentar...
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Optimally Irrational @lionelpage.skystack.xyz · 09/12/2025
Morality works without absolute moral truths • Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly
optimallyirrational.com
Morality works without absolute moral truths
Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 09/12/2025
Can morality still make sense if there are no absolute moral truths? Almost 300 years ago, Hume said yes: moral systems are conventions that foster social cooperation, and our moral emotions are designed to help us navigate these conventions. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/morality-w...
optimallyirrational.com
Morality works without absolute moral truths
Replacing theories of the Good and the Right with a theory of the Seemly
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 06/12/2025
Would it occur to Elon Musk that Russia would also cheer for the US to break up into 50 “sovereign” independent states, while at the same time trying to forcibly reintegrate former states from the USSR which are now independent?
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 28/11/2025
Many secular philosophers still want “moral laws” to be objectively true. But to get there they have to smuggle an unconditional ought out of pure is. In spite of its appeal, the idea that there are objective moral truths "out there" is misguided. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/there-are-...
optimallyirrational.com
There are no moral laws out there
A criticism of moral realism
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Yann de Mey @yanndemey.bsky.social · 26/11/2025
End of year reading by David Spiegelhalter and @lionelpage.bsky.social. Very much looking forward to digging in!
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koenfucius @koenfucius.bsky.social · 22/11/2025
What came first—the chicken or the egg? Never mind that—what came first, morality or religion? @lionelpage.bsky.social challenges (if not debunks) the common assumption that religion was a prerequisite for morality. Game theory offers a far more plausible foundation: buff.ly/ObDnxWi
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
Do we need religion for morality to make sense? Thinking that religion is required for morality is getting things backwards. Our moral sense preceded religions and shaped their ideas about right and wrong. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/no-religio...
optimallyirrational.com
No, religion isn't required for morality
Our moral sense precedes religious doctrines
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
The challenge of designing AI agents as helpers: In the short term, we prefer positive feedback. In the long term, we benefit from having harsh but fair feedback. AI companies might make more money by following our preference for sycophancy rather than our long-term interest.
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
We have moral intuitions and emotions that help us play the game of morals well with others in order to go through the game of life seamlessly. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/morality-w...
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Clickbait strategies backfire over time. Chasing quick clicks may build an audience, but clickbait erodes reputation in the long run. High-quality content may attract an audience more slowly, but it can outperform clickbait strategies over time. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/what-are-w...
optimallyirrational.com
What are we really doing on social media?
The motives and strategies that shape our online presence
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Kai Arzheimer @kai-arzheimer.com · 28/10/2025
This is a clever, social-sciency take on social media by @lionelpage.bsky.social When you read it, you will understand why I was compelled to share it with you
optimallyirrational.com
What are we really doing on social media?
The motives and strategies that shape our online presence
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 27/10/2025
Why did democracy spread? I argue the key driver were factors shifting bargaining power towards popular coalitions. Will it keep spreading? There is no historical law guaranteeing it, I am afraid. And AI may even give more cards to autocratic rulers. www.optimallyirrational.com/p/does-the-a...
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 20/10/2025
“There’s almost no limit to what you can get people to do if you let them think it is their idea” Jim Downey - former SNL writer
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Conrad Hackett @conradhackett.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
How gerrymandering can change election outcomes, in one chart www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp...
Chart shows three different ways to divide 50 people into 5 districts. One shows perfect representation, another a compact but unfair method and a third approach is neither compact nor fair.
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 16/10/2025
Goring explaining, in 1946, Putin's strategy to drag his population into war.
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
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Lionel Page @lionelpage.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Everything you ever wanted to know about why we behave the way we do on social media. The three layers of strategic considerations shaping our online presence: presentation, competition, and coalition building.
optimallyirrational.com
What are we really doing on social media?
The motives and strategies that shape our online presence
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