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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Dnipro OSINT analysis of satellite imagery indicates the October 2 drone strike on Russia’s Volgograd refinery seriously damaged three primary oil processing units: ELOU-AVT-1, AVT-6 and AVT-3. Preliminary estimates suggest around 70% of the plant’s primary processing capacity was disabled. #Russia

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

ChrisO_wiki @chriso-wiki.bsky.social · 9h

1/ Trump's fuel deal with Russia will have two big advantages for Russian refinery operators, according to a Russian energy expert: it will help them to fund their own anti-drone defences, and also help to clear out their stocks of summer diesel in time for winter. ⬇️

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Constantine @teoyaomiquu.bsky.social · 2h

Unfortunately fundraising virtually stopped and almost no donations have been coming in for the past two weeks we only raised 3,000$ which isn't enough to purchase new equipment for Ukraine. givebutter.com/liberty-engi...

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 4h

Please share the fundraiser below (not my post, Constantine's) and if you possibly can, donate. Constantine delivers and the value is incredible. Engineering equipment moves supplies and builds defences, saving lives and expensive other equipment. One of the best deals you can find.

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Sven-Erik Volberg @volberg.bsky.social · 8h

russian* oil storage hit on 8th of October in Samara is still burning nicely. *was russian oil in 8th, now is US oil burning nicely t.me/absolutely_r...

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Summary: I think the pension/social funds are kinda trapped, they need federal help. Regions are getting squeezed, but they're not revealing what they'll do. Federal budget now vaguely makes sense: but they're hiding how they plan on financing over 40% of the deficit.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Example caveats (there are many others): There are some quarterly trends. Federal expenses are slowing down, while the social funds' position is worsening. Russia's new budget plan also assumes a slowdown in VAT growth in Q4. There will be surprises. This is just the path they're currently on.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Social funds financing cont: Monthly expenses easily exceed 1tr rub. Unless they have other accounts I'm not aware of, then the execution reports imply that Russia can't meaningfully drain more cash from them without risking things like skipping out on payments.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Social funds financing: It looks like a rough balance is expected. These funds cover pensions, social & health spending. From reports I found (can't access right now), they spent ~1.1tr rub last year to cover the 2025 deficit. They had less than 1tr rub left, and monthly expenses are larger.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Social fund expenses and revenues cont.: The bigger story here is that a deficit is not expected because federal budget transfers have grown vs last year. Another ~1.1tr rub are needed in Q4 to balance the funds. If that cash isn't provided, the funds could go insolvent if my sources are right.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Social fund expenses and revenues: Payroll tax revenues up +12.7%, expenses up +8.5%. Not much above inflation, despite more pensioners qualifying this year and growing medical needs. The tax revenue growth has shrunk, slowing down to +7.4% in Q3. The hole is plugged by bigger federal transfers.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Regional financing: Regions are on course for a 1.5tr rub deficit. From what I read, they had ~1.9tr rub in accounts so they could cover it. But problems are split across regions. Federal loans are also limited; Russia is burning cash to save the federal budget. Regions look in danger.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Regional expenses and revenues cont.: Jan-Sep 2025 expenses grew +15.4%. So Russians were benefiting - not now. So the feds could send more money to fix the regions, but that counts as a federal expense, and the fed budget financing STILL isn't explained. So seems unlikely?

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Regional expenses and revenues: After a deep deficit last year, revenues are up about +7.3%, expenses up +5.5%. Federal support is down -1.8%. 👉Tax growth is weak, tax changes all help the federal budget instead 👉Expense growth is already below inflation

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Federal deficit and funding: They've announced more borrowing. The other things leave a gap of over 3tr rub. I called this out here: bsky.app/profile/leos... And then days later, Russia admitted it's a secret: bsky.app/profile/leos... They're gonna drain funds from somewhere. It's a mystery atm.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Federal expenses/revenues: Spending has slowed. After +16% growth in Q1 and Q2, it fell to +10% year-over-year in Q3. VAT revenues are up by a ridiculous amount. On course for more than 1tr rub above their budget plan. It sucks, I hope it's an accounting/timing thing and will slow down.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

This is the table of results. Reminder; these are very simple, and uncertain, predictions for the year-end results IF trends follow past patterns. No reason to expect that. There are tons of little details we could look into, but I'll just point out a few for each individual budget.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

I used the equation below. It just says "if the seasonal spending pattern follows 2025, what do we get?" I do that for expenses and revenues in each budget, except for oil & gas where I just use the budget value of 7.584tr rub revenue. There's uncertainty, this just illustrates the path they're on

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 17h

Simple prediction of Russia's 2026 budgets based on latest data: 👉Federal: -7.3tr rub deficit 👉Regional: -1.5tr rub deficit 👉Social/pensions/health funds: ~0tr rub Regions already instituted real-terms expense cuts and it's not enough. The federal budget plan now looks realistic.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 20h

If we consider *changes* in policies, no-one in 2023 helped the Russians as much as Republicans did, either. The GOP worked to save Russia's war and we had people in 2024 saying "well Dems bad and maybe Republicans will be good". I hope people learn from that catastrophic collective brain fart.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 22h

Republicans are trying to protect russian cashflow. So that Russia can win. Americans who support Ukraine; voting Democratic is the single biggest thing you can do to help Ukraine. The Democratic defeats in 2022&2024 saved Putin, gave him hope and stopped him from negotiating.

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Applying 'murican logic to this, it gives the US greater scope to turn on Ukraine for attacking Russian refineries, and to blame Ukraine for keeping US diesel prices high despite Russia trying to help. Indeed, if it wasn't for America's narcissism, they'd be presenting Russia as the victim here.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23h

The Republican actions may have made little difference to Russian supply volumes. But removing sanctions should reduce the discounts and flood Russia's war chest with bonus money for their war.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 23h

Republicans gonna Republican. Anyone who is "surprised" or thinks this is "crazy", please go look at what Republicans have done. "But they said they want peace" Look at what they've done. "But they say they care about people" Look at what they've done. Stop listening to liars. Watch what they do

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Indeed. I'm surprised the growth is so huge. I hope it's mainly a temporary timing effect...

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

The VAT growth really sucks. Russia implies it will slow down in Q4, let's see and hope. Russia is also doing something of a gamble, they've been burning financial assets. Cash losses alone could result in 600+bn rub missing financial income in 2027.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A drop of maybe 5tr rub in investable assets by 2027 compared with 2024? Excluding regional cash the treasury manages, where regional budgets get the income. They're burning assets to keep the war going for now, but at today's interest rates, 5tr could have been earning ~650bn rub/year.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Sberbank income through dividends is the biggest, but even Russian analysts keep expecting growth of 10-20%, not enough to offset VTB dividend losses. Next up; investment income. Russia has drained trillions of rubles from accounts and claims they'll drain more this year. Maybe 3+tr.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

A consequence of Russia burning its financial future to keep the war going is that their financial income shouldn't be doing so well. They've leaned hard on VTB bank and did share issue shenanigans that involved sacrificing something like 100bn rub/year in expected future revenues.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

For "other" revenues, this includes things like "voluntary" donations from oligarchs. Supposedly those are up a lot vs last year, maybe 300bn rub so far. It also includes e.g. certain "exit taxes" when the government leans on foreign companies. There are also financial components.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

This means Russia's new budget implies a slowdown in this huge VAT growth, consistent with timing factors I discussed above. It's also possible that there's a combo of higher than admitted inflation + consumption growth. Watch VAT in the coming months. So far it's a huge deal. It sucks.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

VAT seems complex. Companies can pick different treatments, and in one of them you pay based on inputs vs outputs and it's possible for payments to be due earlier and then a reimbursement to arrive later.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Much Russian VAT is paid quarterly. As well as increasing the rate from 20% to 22%, which alone could explain ~10% growth vs last year, they also changed rules and made smaller companies pay more. There MIGHT have been a short-term boost as these companies made prepayments etc.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

September 2026 vs September 2025 ❗ Revenues: +495bn rub (+15%) 👉 Oil&gas -130bn rub (-22%) 👉 VAT +536bn rub (+34%) 👉 Other +90bn rub (+9) ❗ Expenses: +337bn rub (+12%) Slower expense growth this month while MASSIVE VAT growth continues. There are things to look for and notice IMO.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Thanks for looking. Maybe data centres but my first guess would be something mundane - someone forgot to file a report or delayed a signature or broke an excel file. Could also be that the new budget requires them to change & double check things and that just takes time.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Does it take a bit longer for data release after each quarter? I think I noticed the June data tables came out a week or so later than I expected in July.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

There we go, 214.656bn rub in the 2025 budget law Appendix 6 under "external financing". Confirmed: yuan OFZ bonds are "external" financing, not "internal". And they used the exchange rate from the bond issuance date of 8th Dec 2025.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Now the yuan issuance, it was 20bn rub on 8th December. On that date, the official Central Bank of Russia exchange rate was 10.7328 rub per yuan. So if that's the exchange rate they used, we should expect 214.656bn rub, right? The 9th Dec exchange rate would give 216.566bn rub instead.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

Firstly, they raised a lot of money using normal, ruble-denominated OFZ bonds. In the attached picture, you can see that the money reported in the final budget law from internal bond financing equalled that reported from adding up the individual ruble OFZ sales. No space for yuan here.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 09/10/2026

I've been tracking how Russia calculates its financing through bond borrowing. On 8th Dec 2025 they sold 20bn yuan worth of OFZ bonds, denominated in yuan. I've traced their budget numbers and they used the exchange rate on the 8th Dec 2025. (evidence thread for later reference)

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Really great work as always. I'd add what counts as "enough men" depends on what you mean by "enough". Enough to keep going at this pace until Jan 2027? Enough to maintain this pace forever? It depends on things like how many permanent losses russia is suffering.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

The bill entered into force on the 18th september. There are various timelines for things to happen. We should see some evidence after the 18th Oct about whether Trump is going harder or softer on Russia here. www.govinfo.gov/app/details/...

govinfo.gov

Public Law 119 - 111 - Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026

Official Publications from the U.S. Government Publishing Office.

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Half-Brick McCurdy @halfbrickmccurdy.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Useful reminder US foreign policy is better viewed as a project to promote the Far Right and the Far Right version of the truth, than it is simply insulting traditional allies, and that silencing critics is integral to this project.

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Eliot Higgins @eliothiggins.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Credit to the US for making the point the conference was trying to make about US foreign interference in European democracies for them, and bringing more attention to the conference and its themes than they could have possibly hoped for. www.politico.com/news/2026/10...

politico.com

EU, Canada and Lithuania pull out of disinformation conference after US pressure

The Trump administration was bothered by panels that referred to the U.S. as a disinformation threat.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This framing is poor. Republicans are trying to force through a Russian victory. They cut aid to save Putin's army and make Ukrainians die. They made it so Putin didn't have to negotiate. The GOP want Ukrainian surrender. They're lying and pretending "truce" because it sounds better to voters.

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Reposted by @leoskyview.bsky.social

Phillips OBrien @phillipspobrien.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Just a reminder it was exactly three months ago that Trump promised Ukraine its own license to build Patriot Interceptors and one month since the Lindsey Graham tariff bill was signed. How’s all that support for Ukraine going, Trump apologists?

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

Ukrainians don't want to be fighting an existential war in a bunker, they're doing the right thing. Please help them, support political parties and countries that help Ukraine and oppose parties and countries that help Russia. That's not asking much compared with what Ukrainians are doing.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

No matter how emotional you feel, how much you're angry about pro-Ukraine parties, it doesn't stop missiles or provide drones to Ukraine's defenders. You know who does? Pro-Ukraine parties voting for aid.

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leoskyview.bsky.social @leoskyview.bsky.social · 08/10/2026

This is Putin's main realistic path to victory, and it works by playing on our emotions. I get it, you don't want to vote Democrats/Labour/another pro-Ukraine party because you're upset. But think about Ukrainians on the front or in their homes. Do you really want to disarm them so they die?

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