Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 28/06/2026wir schlagen spanien. Und wir schlagen portugal. Wir schlagen Portugal zwei mal. mir ist das so wurscht 020
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 21/11/2025Quite the survey from earlier this month in Germany. 61% of Left and 52% of Green voters would like Angela Merkel back as chancellor. Compared to only 22% of voters from her own center-right party. 150
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 05/11/2025broke: age differential voting woke: age differential in turnout 3273
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 05/11/2025Can also be seen in the margin shift by largest demographic group in the precinct, which he gained a lot in Black and Hispanic precincts. 042
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 05/11/2025Mamdani's gains relative to the primary was really driven by the Bronx and Brooklyn, elsewhere it stayed relatively constant. 35710
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 12/09/2025Presidents’ names are getting shorter. Why? incredible investigation by @andrewvandam.bsky.social and @alyssafowers.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/business/202... 1101
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 07/07/2025What if Trump’s gains with minorities weren’t about Trump at all? @andrewvandam.bsky.social and I took a look at recent election results in NYC, Toronto and London and tried to figure out why we're seeing similar trends in all three cities www.washingtonpost.com/business/202... 47018
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 27/06/2025Also, an interesting finding: there looks like there is a divide in how well Dems do between red and blue states. Might be another sign of Democrats unpopularity in places they have governed. 151
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 26/06/2025also some bits on why the turnout vs. persuasion argument completely misses the point. The pew data shows that for November (but fwiw so does tuesdays election) 010
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 26/06/2025were you looking for another article on the Pew data released today? we got you covered: Trump shook Democrats’ hold on non-White voters in 2024, report finds w/ @sfcpoll.bsky.social www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 141
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 03/06/2025Something I hadn't noticed before in @electproject.bsky.social analysis: while 2022 was the first midterm since 1990 where the electorate was whiter than the previous midterm, in 2024 earlier trend continues, the 2024 electorate was less white than 2020 michaelmcdonald.substack.com/p/2024-votin... 131
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 02/06/2025TIL that MA archives their election results with the correct (if confusing when looking things up quickly) color scheme electionstats.state.ma.us/elections/vi... 030
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 21/05/2025A Russian spy story? Obviously must have some Österreichbezug 010
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 28/04/2025The Social Democratic Party continues to dominate and came in first. Though they lost ~2% making this one of their worst results since 1945. They will likely continue in a coalition government with the liberal NEOS who gained 2.5%, surprising for the junior partner. 110
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 28/04/2025There were state elections in my hometown of Vienna yesterday! Contrary to the zeitgeist, the governing coalition gained in % compared to the last election. This is actually the second time in a row that this happened (after 2015-2020), though both times it was caused by falling turnout. 140
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 02/04/2025Narrowly looking at Dane county precincts only, Crawford saw a larger shift from Harris' in places with lower turnout relative to November 020
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 02/04/2025Gonna tell my kids that this was the emerging Democratic majority 1473
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 02/04/2025Crawford's over-performance in Dane County precincts that have finished reporting already so far is ~6.5 538233
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 22/02/2025Below you can see samples of the variance you'd expect given the current polls and I've highlighted the actual observed variance. In both cases, but especially for the FDP, the observed variance is a little low. 160
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 22/02/2025Final polling average for the German election tomorrow. The polls in the last few week have been relatively constant*. The conservative CDU/CSU is expected to come first with around 30% (compared to 24% in 2021), the far-right AfD is expected to double from 10% to 20-21%. 32814
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 29/01/2025CDU/CSU is now below 30% in the average of polls for the German Bundestag election next month 021
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 09/01/2025The slow downward tend in the polls that the CDU/CSU in Germany were seeing since snap elections were called in early November seems to have been stopped for now 050
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 03/01/2025Seit der Nationalratswahl, ende September, ist die FPÖ im Umfragedurchschnitt von fast 29% auf 36% gestiegen. Die ÖVP ist gleichzeitig von 26% auf 21% gesunken (jetzt etwa gleichauf mit SPÖ). Bei den anderen Parteien gab es weniger Veränderung in den Umfragen. 070
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 16/12/2024While there hasn't been a ton of new polling recently, today seems like a good day to take a look at our polling average for Germany. Looks like there has been some positive movement for Scholz' Social Democrats, including the first poll since June 2024 that has them ahead of the AfD. 2174
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 05/12/2024Not a ton of movement in German parliamentary polls but if you squint you can see some slight improvement for Greens (and maybe for Social Dems, but that's based on two polls only) 270
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 24/11/2024Es gibt zwar nicht viele Umfragen aus der Steiermark, aber in denen die wir haben ist die ÖVP schon das ganze Jahr bei Mitte 20% (wenn man es sehr genau nimmt, dann seit der NR Wahl sogar leicht verbessert) 0145
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 23/11/2024Not a ton of polls since the German government coalition broke apart in early November (and snap elections became likely). This is where things currently stand 292
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 20/11/2024How 2024 may shift our understanding of the political generation gap www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 1201
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 13/11/2024The AP just called CA-27, which Democrats were expected to win, but this does up the bottom of our prediction interval from 208 to 209 for Democrats. Republicans still favored to take the House, but with a tiny majority (220 to 215) 030
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 12/11/2024What the numbers actually say about the 2024 election www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 0103
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 11/11/2024Our best guess for the House rn is 220/215 for GOP. And the chance for the Democrats to win the House is slowly slipping away (the optimistic scenario for Dems now being 220). So a majority of 3, which in addition to some very quick vacancies might things quite difficult for the majority. 053
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 11/11/20242020-2024 shift in Miami-Dade and Hillsborough, Florida. The average in precincts that are <25% Hispanic: 9pp >75% Hispanic: 17pp 020
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 09/11/2024Another indication of uniform swing: Josh Stein outperformed Kamala Harris nearly everywhere 031
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 08/11/2024Presidential results by precinct in North Carolina (not 100% sure what is going on with the OBX here, but these are the precinct files from the NCSBE) 030
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 04/11/20243) we have an aggregate electoral vote model for the first time (as well as Senate and House aggregate models also) 100
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 04/11/2024TLDR: 1) we have a new methodology! 2) we have a new viz for our state forecasts (RIP fuzzybars) 100
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 04/11/2024How The Washington Post’s forecast will track 2024 election results Like in previous cycles we'll be running our live election model to add context to results that are coming in. But we have a few updates this year! www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 183
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 03/11/2024The election is uncertain, but it might not be close www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202... 0134
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 25/10/2024Come for the personalization and stay for the fun deep-dive into particularly interesting trends! 050
Lenny Bronner @lennybronner.com · 25/10/2024See how people like you vote and how that’s changed over time www.washingtonpost.com/elections/in... 131
