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Konstantin Weber

@konstantinweber.bsky.social
432 followers 254 following 58 posts

PhD in Climate Science @ethzurich.bsky.social | 🌍 Understanding what's going on and what to do about it | 🏔 Mountain lover | Opinions = my own | ❤️ or 🔄 ≠ endorsement Also here: www.linkedin.com/in/konstantin-weber

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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 17h
(Jus) another limitation of IAMs? Or is there anything else you would infer from that?
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Interesting! Is there an (up-to-date) emission scenario available, too (I didn’t find anything but also didn’t look for long) ? I stopped believing in temperature curves alone
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
The New York Times @nytimes.com · 14/09/2026
Breaking News: The E.P.A. is said to be planning to announce that the U.S. will no longer limit climate pollution from power plants.
nyti.ms
E.P.A. Will Erase Limits on Climate Pollution From Power Plants
Generation of electricity is the second largest source of carbon dioxide and other planet-warming gases in the United States.
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
Treating this as an unstoppable race, and accepting the "endgame" of runaway warming, is a reckless gamble that should never be decided in a boardroom alone. Betting on future carbon removal to fix today's emissions requires far more confidence than the evidence supports.
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
Ruben Prütz @rubenpruetz.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
In a new Comment, published this week in #Nature Reviews Clean Technology and co-led with Quirina Rodriguez Mendez, we discuss ten prominent #narratives about the role of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in the current academic #discourse. 📚💭 doi.org/10.1038/s443...
doi.org
Mapping conflicts in carbon removal narratives - Nature Reviews Clean Technology
Carbon dioxide removal has been described both as a mitigation necessity and as a risk to mitigation ambition or sustainability in the academic literature. This Comment examines the assumptions underl...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Absolutely agree! iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Anchoring overshoot in reality
Anchoring overshoot in reality, Weber, Konstantin, von Rothkirch, Juanita, Brunner, Cyril, Knutti, Reto
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
roughly correct, but the 500 MtCH4/year number is too high. Importantly, we need *methane AND CO2* emission reductions, so calling methane the "highest-leverage climate lever" is a bit misleading in my view.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Overshoot of 1.5 °C is inevitable, but don't forget that we need stringent methane mitigation to keep warming to below 2 °C. Without methane mitigation peak warming below 2 °C becomes unlikely, even with extremely ambitious CO2 emission reductions! www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03832-1
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
Mike Sparrow @drmikesparrow.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
The trail of clues that our planet might be heating faster than we realised: www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
The trail of clues that our planet might be heating faster than we realised
A curious online row over this summer's heatwaves points to a wider - and worrying - shift in climate science.
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
Ingrid Brodnig @brodnig.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Mithilfe erbeten: Hat hier jemand die Erfahrung gemacht, wegen KI den Job zu verlieren? Oder gab es im eigenen Unternehmen Überlegungen dazu? Mich würden (anonymisiert) solche Erfahrungen journalistisch interessieren - schaue auch in meine DMs, also gerne dort schreiben Bin über RTs dankbar! 🙏
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
Robert Finger @robertfinger.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
‚Assessing the Environmental, Economic and Social Impacts of a Greenhouse Gas Emission Tax in Swiss Agriculture‘ New paper in the Journal of Agricultural Economics. Led by Marta Tarruella, and with Nadja El Benni, Eva Winter, Robert Huber, Gabriele Mack onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Even when it comes to peak warming, methane might help a lot: www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Just to understand correctly: Do you mean "CDR" (also part of mitigation) or "net negative CO2 emissions"?
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Thank you for the kind words!
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
concerning overly optimistic assumptions regarding overshoot: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Anchoring overshoot in reality
Anchoring overshoot in reality, Weber, Konstantin, von Rothkirch, Juanita, Brunner, Cyril, Knutti, Reto
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Just out of interest: DACCS and BECCS are considered as geoengineering and part of a UN moratorium? I am hearing this for the first time.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Depends on who you ask. Very unlikely in my view: www.newscientist.com/article/2587... iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Anchoring overshoot in reality
Anchoring overshoot in reality, Weber, Konstantin, von Rothkirch, Juanita, Brunner, Cyril, Knutti, Reto
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Agriculture, fossil fuel production and distribution, and the the waste sector :)
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Thank you. I was more referring to the framing of the UN report, as I did not see any discussion around what duration of OS is discussed as plausible. Clearly, the earlier the better, but I worry that a short OS period is as realistic as the below 1.5 °C scenarios produced by models 10 years ago.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Zur Ergänzung: www.srf.ch/audio/rendez... Und zum Lesen: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w...
srf.ch
ETH-Forschende warnen vor unterschätztem Methanproblem
Viele Staaten haben ihre Versprechen zur Reduktion von Methan bisher nicht eingelöst. Auch die Schweiz hat zwar ein Reduktionsziel festgelegt, aber keinen konkreten Umsetzungsplan. Forschende der ETH ...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
The overshoot figure (maybe deliberately?) does not have a scale for the x-axis. I keep wondering about the time scale envisaged for the return to 1.5 °C...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Better visual:
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Maybe of interest: Peak warming depends on methane mitigation, too. Without methane mitigation we will exceed even 1.8 °C with ambitious net zero targets. See below or www.nature.com/articles/s43...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
If you want to know more: Post by @brunncy.bsky.social : lnkd.in/p/e6RVr4tS Behind the paper: communities.springernature.com/posts/limiti... SRF radio broadcast: www.srf.ch/audio/rendez... * Lena Brun, @retoknutti.bsky.social, @brunncy.bsky.social @ethz.ch @usyseth.bsky.social
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
• Published values of the 2 °C remaining carbon budget lie around 1000-1150 GtCO₂ for 2025. We find that this implies CH₄ emissions decreasing by 27-35% in 2020-2050. With lacking CH₄ mitigation, the 2 °C budget is far smaller than communicated and the 1.7 °C budget is already exhausted.
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
• A net zero CO₂ target for 2050 requires CH₄ emissions to fall by about two thirds relative to 2020 to keep warming at 1.7 °C. • Cutting one third of human-caused CH₄ emissions by 2030 relative to 2020 lowers peak warming by 0.15 °C. 0.05 °C come at no net cost (the fossil fuel supply chain).
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Methane mitigation is not a substitute for CO₂ mitigation. We need both. Some insights (all warming values at 50% likelihood): • No CH₄ mitigation leads to warming peaking at almost 2 °C, even if net zero CO₂ were reached by 2050.
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
By treating CH₄ emissions separately, we systematically quantify how much CH₄ emissions need to fall to be consistent with a given warming level. We derive minimum compatible CH₄ reduction targets for existing net zero CO₂ or net zero GHG targets.
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
CH₄ stays in the atmosphere for about a decade, but CO₂-induced warming is irreversible for millennia.
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Climate targets and discussions around emission reductions often combine CO₂ and CH₄ into “CO₂ equivalents”, but such an aggregation is always a simplification. CO₂ and CH₄ behave completely differently (comparable to the difference between 🍗 and 🍜): www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w...
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Methane Mitigation Matters We* have a new paper out today and the key message is that keeping warming well-below 2 °C requires strong reductions in methane (CH₄) emissions. Link to paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43... @carbonbrief.org guest post: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-w...
nature.com
Limiting warming by CO2 and methane mitigation in an expanded scenario space - Communications Earth & Environment
Systematically mapping peak warming across two main choices for climate policy – when carbon dioxide reaches net zero emissions and how fast methane emissions are cut – shows that near-term methane mi...
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
Carbon Brief @carbonbrief.org · 01/09/2026
NEW – Guest post: Why tough methane cuts are crucial for keeping warming ‘well-below’ 2C | Written by @konstantinweber.bsky.social @retoknutti.bsky.social @brunncy.bsky.social Read here: buff.ly/rd13QpI
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
Amazing, thank you! I was not aware of the extent of the problem with CCS deployment and *how much* carbon prices increase in models. I recently contributed a paper that looks at sth related, but in the context of overshoot, maybe of interest: iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Anchoring overshoot in reality
Anchoring overshoot in reality, Weber, Konstantin, von Rothkirch, Juanita, Brunner, Cyril, Knutti, Reto
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
These numbers are pretty insane and I was not aware of this either. Is this due to assumed cost reductions of CCS put into IAMs? (To me, it increasingly looks like you get out what you put in, but I hope that I will be proven wrong by experts on IAMs.)
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
(1) www.unep.org/resources/em... (2) iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... (3) essd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... (4) www.nature.com/articles/s41... (5) granthaminstitute.com/2023/11/29/o...
unep.org
Emissions Gap Report 2025
UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target finds that available new climate pledges under the Paris Agreement have only slightly lowered global temperature rise over the course of this century, leav...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
A lack of strong near-term mitigation commits many generations to live under an overshoot of 1.5 °C, with impacts that could have been avoided. For scientists: Please stop drawing symmetric overshoot pathways.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
From a current perspective, long-term exceedance of 1.5 °C seems much more plausible than a fast return to it. In any case, neither our children nor grandchildren are likely to ever experience warming returning to 1.5 °C.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Are such overshoot scenarios desirable? They are clearly more desirable than warming stabilizing at a higher level without returning to 1.5 °C. Are overshoot scenarios plausible or even likely as often depicted? Our answer: Absolutely not.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Together, these three elements lead to an overly rosy communication that creates the expectation that a return after overshoot will be quick and easy. We and others argue that it is not (4, 5).
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
3) The models that generate future emission scenarios are structurally prone to generating overshoot pathways. Temperature decline faces barriers in the real world that are not represented in such models that explore cost-optimal trajectories.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
2) Strong cooling rates depend on overly optimistic assumptions regarding CO2 removal to compensate for emissions that took place in the past. Currently, we are even failing to reduce CO2 emissions globally (3), let alone plan for net negative emissions.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
We trace the prevalence of overly optimistic temperature decline in overshoot pathways back to three interconnected problems: 1) The irreversibility of CO2-induced warming is non-intuitive, even to experts.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
In a new perspective paper, we argue that the current thinking and communication around global temperature decline after peak warming is far too optimistic. We show that even under extremely optimistic assumptions, the time above 1.5 °C will extend well beyond 2100, and probably much longer.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Just to be clear, this would require net negative CO2 emissions on the order of today’s human-caused positive CO2 emissions and an industry to take out CO2 from the atmosphere about the size of the current fossil fuel industry!
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
The rate of global temperature decline is largely determined by the rate of net negative CO2 emissions. Illustrations of “overshoot” routinely show temperature trajectories that are almost symmetric in the increase and decrease in global temperatures.
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Long-term warming will soon exceed 1.5 °C (1). To align this reality with the ambition of the Paris Agreement to limit warming to 1.5 °C, there is a rise in so-called “overshoot scenarios”. In an overshoot scenario, global warming temporarily exceeds a temperature limit and later returns to it (2).
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 24/08/2026
Temperature overshoot means more than cleaning up a slightly bigger mess a little later. TL;DR: If we ever return to 1.5 °C, it will likely take centuries. The way overshoot scenarios are often sketched fails to highlight that. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...
iopscience.iop.org
Anchoring overshoot in reality
Anchoring overshoot in reality, Weber, Konstantin, von Rothkirch, Juanita, Brunner, Cyril, Knutti, Reto
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Reposted by Konstantin Weber
Gergana Gyuleva @ggyuleva.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Radiation Trends Point to Higher Future Warming ‼️ 🌡️ How sensitive is Earth's climate to increasing CO₂ concentrations? Fresh insights in our new study: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... @retoknutti.bsky.social @erichfischer.bsky.social @sebastian-sippel.bsky.social
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Recent Temperature and Energy Imbalance Trends Point to Higher Estimates of Future Warming
Recent surface warming and top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance point to higher future warming than previously estimated Previous constraints on transient climate response using observed surface te...
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
I have the pleasure to kick off #EGU tomorrow: First session, first talk 🥳! So get up "early" on Monday morning and join CL3.2.1 at 8:30 in Room 0.49/50! I'll present how methane mitigation affects the remaining carbon budget and peak warming🌡. There are also many great talks afterwards!
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Konstantin Weber @konstantinweber.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
9/ Our data are publicly available. And finally, the paper can be found here: www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Tracking country-level mitigation progress using NGHGI-consistent carbon budgets - Nature Communications
This study shows that aligning remaining carbon budgets with national greenhouse gas inventory accounting reduces the global 1.5 ∘C (50%) budget by  ~100 GtCO2, with possible depletion around 202...
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