iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/05/2026

I rattled off a lot of dates in this reel and surprisingly this was only my second take! I said June 31 was the first day of summer 🤦🏻‍♂️

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 09/03/2026

We’ve got a couple rounds of storms this week, severe weather season is waking up!

030

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 24/02/2026

I’m ready for later sunsets! Spring is just around the corner in Memphis.

040

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 01/02/2026

This sleet has cemented into glaciers on most roads since we haven’t seen temps much above freezing but three days in the last week. Soon we’ll melt down, but it may take til midweek!

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 16/12/2025

Some models are pointing towards a big warm-up for Memphis the days around Christmas! While it's still at the long-range of the models, prone to large error, I wanted to see how likely it was for us to see highs 70+ the week of Christmas. This is the 30-yr Dec 25 centered average probability.

020

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

As a follow-up to yesterday's post about next week's uncertainty: The Euro Ensemble's weekly temp anomaly is cutting the mid-south down the middle for above/below average temps. The ensembles are so spread it's basically outputting climatology for us.

020

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 26/11/2025

Today's Excel adventure: radar graphs! Each thin line shows a single year 1991-2020, with the oval showing the NWS climatological average, and 2025 plotted darkest on top of them all.

130

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 25/11/2025

Long-range forecasting is notoriously difficult, but this setup is just horrendous. The spread on temperatures next week in the ensembles is over 30 degrees for some days!!

000

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

Wednesday will be interesting as a cold air mass pushes into the Mid-South. The maximum temperature for the day will be set at midnight, with the afternoon high not cresting higher. The morning low will also not be the minimum for the day, as the colder air fully arrives with mid 30s by 11:59pm.

000

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 24/11/2025

I've heard of fog thick as pea soup, but never fog so thick it reflects what's behind you!

110

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Me liking every post I see about the Northern Lights rn

050

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

It looks like the CME's from the two previous X-class flares Sunday and Monday combined into one wave RIGHT on top of us! The CME from today's X5.1 looks to miss us tomorrow slightly ahead of our orbit. In short, WE LUCKED OUT SO GOOD!!!!!

020

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

INCREDIBLE That we got such a brilliant show in Memphis, TN tonight! Even through city lights and looking directly at lights, our East Memphis camera caught some brilliant red waves between 8-10pm tonight!

120

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

Info from the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center: G4 Storm levels have been reached! My favorite part of this graphic is the credit line "image courtesy of a NOAA/SWPC spouse" I also texted my husband to go get a picture but he was working lol

0235

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

From downtown Memphis, pic by Chief Meteorologist Trevor Birchett

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 12/11/2025

MEMPHIS, TN AURORA RIGHT NOW!!!!!

181

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 11/11/2025

Both iconic in their own rights

070

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 10/11/2025

This would be good news to help improve the drought situation in Arkansas and Mississippi! Much of West Tennessee including Memphis were dropped from any abnormally dry areas last Thursday.

020

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 09/11/2025

The cold front arrived last night and has dropped temperatures across the Mid-South 25-30 degrees!!! Over night, we're expecting our first freeze of the season.

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Late night update on Melissa. I’ve been making more effort to update TikTok with forecasts, follow me @ProKitman!

000

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

Here is a look at all the initial windspeeds of all full advisories from NHC. It's always interesting to see a hurricane season laid out like this, with how the activity was clustered early season, then became more active in the latter half. For those interested, here's 2024 as well.

2025 Hurricane season. Andrea-Barry-Chantal clustered in late June and early July; Dexter-Erin-Fernand clustered in August; Gabrielle in mid-September picks up a more active period with a few overlapping storms twice. Three storms obtained 160mph, with Melissa getting to 185, and Gabrielle reaching 140mph.

2024 Hurricane season. AlberTo, Beryl, and Chris clustered June and July; August with Debby and Ernesto; Early September onwards continues a very active period, with Sept 23-Oct 12 having 6 storms. Milton was the strongest up to 180mph.

101

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 29/10/2025

I keep a pretty thorough spreadsheet of tropical data. With most storms it's at most 3-hourly updates, but I made this chart with room for the hourly updates Melissa had across Jamaica. It's always amazing to see how quickly storms weaken over land.

120

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

While the eye of #Melissa was making landfall, did you notice the standing wave on the Eastern side of the island? The mountains in eastern Jamaica reach upwards of to 7,000 feet, and likely wrung out a ton of additional moisture. Looking here for flooding and landslide reports in the coming days.

0215

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Here's some of the stats of the Atlantic basin strongest hurricane stats, sorted wind/pressure/year. Melissa clocks in at a tie for 2nd fastest winds/tied fastest landfall; ties for 3rd lowest overall pressure, ties for strongest landfalling pressure. Graphic inspired by @rshoptaugh.bsky.social

A ranking of Strongest hurricanes in the Atlantic, highlighting the wind speeds. Order is Rank, Name, Max Wind, Min Pressure, Year. (2-t indicates tied for second fastest winds)
1: Allen, 190mph, 899mb, 1980
2-t: Wilma, 185mph, 882mb, 2005
2-t: Gilbert, 185mph, 888mb, 1988
2-t: Labor Day, 185mph, 892mb, 1935
2-t: Melissa, 185mph, 892mb, 2025
2-t: Dorian, 185mph, 910mb, 2019
7: Milton, 180mph, 895mb, 2024
Milton is tied with 3 other storms at 180mph

030

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

What's keeping Melissa away from the U.S. coast? Fortunately, there are two jet streams combining off the East Coast that will push it away and send it to the North Atlantic. It may bring strong winds to Bermuda late Thursday.

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

#Melissa is weakening as its eye moves inland across Western Jamaica, clouds obscuring the historically dry eye.

041

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

I'm guessing this happens right about this stage of the simulation in this paper shared by @agitatedcu.bsky.social journals.ametsoc.org/view/journal...

050

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

The final stretch of water under #Melissa was >30°C. Despite its slow movement and thick clouds over the last several days, the ocean heat is very deep. A post from @drkimwood.bsky.social showed that heat extended down 60m, so any upwelling which has occurred has just brought up more hot water.

231

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Incredible situation about to unfold in Western Jamaica...

000

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

An incredible sight from the 89GHz channel showing #Melissa has an impressive eyewall with deep convection. This was about an hour and a half ago, just after the upgrade to 185mph.

040

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Hurricane #Melissa update. This has info from last hour, but the only change is forward speed is now 8mph heading 25°(NNE).

000

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Hurricane #Melissa is nearing landfall along the SW coast of Jamaica. This will be tied for the lowest landfalling pressure on record, and tied fasted landfalling winds.

001

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Hurricane Melissa now has a lower pressure than Katrina did at its peak intensity, and ties its maximum winds. Now the 8th lowest pressure observed in the Atlantic.

011

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

The last eye dropsonde found surface at 902mb, and last eyewall dropsonde a wind of 185mph. 😱

140

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Looks like a recent pass has #Melissa down to 902mb, which would tie it with Katrina's deepest pressure.

190

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Hurricane #Melissa now the 9th lowest pressure for an Atlantic hurricane on record. The immense rainfall and extreme winds will be a one-two punch to Jamaica as it makes landfall tomorrow morning.

083

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Looks like there's a cluster of spiral gravity waves rotating along the southern half of the CDO of #Melissa over the last half hour. Tagging @davenolan305.bsky.social as he pointed out the feature in Humberto a few weeks ago.

070

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 28/10/2025

Hurricane #Melissa now has an enclosed donut of -80C cloud tops 30-40mi wide. After another burst of strong convection over the last few hours, the well-ventilated storm is maintaining its 175mph winds and still has a very circular eye. Pressure rose a tad, but still among the lowest on record!

031

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 27/10/2025

Melissa has once again met Rapid Intensification threshold with the 2pm intermediate advisory. Yesterday, at 5pm Melissa went up to 145, so to continue RI it would have to further accelerate to 180mph in the next three hours, which is the (tied) 9th fasted recorded Atlantic hurricane speed.

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

Melissa also reached Cat4 sooner than any previous forecast predicted, but the Rapid Intensification has still been remarkably well forecast!

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 26/10/2025

Melissa's Rapid Intensification began with +35 10/24:8p-10/25:8p (ET), and peaked with three advisories of +70mph/24hr. It has begun to level off as a mid-level Cat4 with some inconsistencies in central pressure, but is still forecast to reach Cat5 tomorrow.

130

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 19/10/2025

It's a whole new season out there, folks 😄🍂🍁

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

I’ve never seen so many all in one location. I must have disturbed the hive and the they all decided to mug me. I had already opened my hatch to start setting up my camera equipment so they flew INTO MY CAR. I gave up. I drove home and got another several bites. I just counted 93 in this picture.

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 18/10/2025

I’ve been planning for weeks to go out tonight to get a photo of Comet Lemmon. Work schedule and trips are in the way of me getting a picture at its closest approach. I got to a field in Arkansas I’d picked out and was IMMEDIATELY swarmed by mosquitoes. Dozens. SCORES. I took this pic of the CLOUD.

220

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 14/10/2025

Looks like there's a bit of KH-wave instability headed into the Bay of Campeche! An upper level CAG low around the western Caribbean and an opposing continental high across the Southern US are creating enough fluid shear to show a crashing wave feature on upper-level water vapor satellite imagery!

020

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 30/09/2025

Hurricane #Imelda has rapidly intensified over the last 24 hours, reaching 95mph about a day ahead of forecast. Meanwhile, Hurricane #Humberto has weekend quickly, filling its pressure >34mb in 24 hours for the last three updates.

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Just checked the latest recon flight from a couple hours ago and sure enough, double eyewalls!

010

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 29/09/2025

Humberto looks like it's falling apart a bit. The inner eyewall is wobbling a lot even making it appear to have a second non-concentric eye lol I'd suspect there's an outer eyewall forming and causing the inner structure to be cut off from moisture and is getting weaker.

130

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

Forgot to attach high-seas analysis from OPC

020

Kit Thomas @kitthomaswx.bsky.social · 27/09/2025

With #Humberto now as a powerful Category 5 hurricane, it ties with Erin for strongest storm this season. Last season we also had two Cat 5's, and @weatherprof.bsky.social pointed out it's a very rare statistic to achieve. In fact, it's been since 1932/33, never before in the satellite era.

130