Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 17h10 yr real rates are up 1% and the inflation spread is flat. You could try to say that the Fed credibly signaled that they will raise the target rate to keep inflation in check. But, it's impossible for Fed signals in the last month to have credibly signaled a 1% higher target for 10 full years. 110
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannKyle Cheney @kyledcheney.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Judge Gary Brown, a Trump appointee in New York, rebukes ICE for arresting two people erroneously — including a U.S. citizen — and later claiming "mistaken identity." "ICE agents falsified official records," he says. storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.us... 582518863
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 21hPost (for subscribers) There is a big difference between "inflation will rise if the Fed targets a rate too low" and "mortgage rates are high because inflation forced the Fed to raise them" and it seems like nobody makes the distinction. kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/follow-up-...kevinerdmann.substack.comFollow-Up to Mortgage Rates and HousingThe last post discussed some observations about interest rates, housing, and the business cycle. 110
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 05/10/2026d) What makes us different than monkeys is that we are unselfish enough that we made a pact to let everyone keep their own bananas except where we have some defined rules about it, and we generally all abide by it, both by negotiating some rules for sharing & by not taking them against those rules. 010
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 05/10/2026Waymo recently expanded to our neighborhood and will certainly reduce the number of cars we own. There's no question about it. 010
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 05/10/2026What if monkeys built banana factories? That would be bad ass. Kind of sucks for them that they don't. It's basically the difference between them and us, to their detriment. Nathalie Robin Justice should go share bananas with monkeys if she thinks they've got it figured out. 130
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannAaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 04/10/2026a very weird thing about Trump that I have NEVER seen the media comment on is that he thinks "mutilization" is a word and uses it multiple times during every public appearance 1341692291
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannThe Lever @levernews.com · 03/10/2026Iranian-American families whose relatives were killed, injured or displaced by U.S. strikes are taking Trump to court over a fundamental question: Can a president wage a war Congress never authorized? The unprecedented lawsuit could put presidential war powers on trial. 58138
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 03/10/2026Some of this is for subscribers, but here I go into some updates on the business cycle and housing. kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/mortgage-r...kevinerdmann.substack.comMortgage Rates and HousingI’ll probably be revisiting this monthly, at least for a little while. 020
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 02/10/2026He's treating interest rates as a cause, but I think the causation is stronger in the other direction. Rising rates, when they are associated with rising real rates and a steepening yield curve, signal strong economic fundamentals and risk-seeking capital. 010
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 02/10/2026The rising interest rates strike me as quite bullish. If they had gone this far in the OTHER direction over the past week, I would have been increasing my bond position. This is not how a yield curve acts in a weak economy. 052
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 01/10/2026That has nothing to do with what homes are built where. It has everything to do with how many. And once they are there, families will SORT THEMSELVES into the adequate or inadequate stock of homes. THEY are the filtering. You can't be pro-affordability and be a filtering skeptic. 3/3 041
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Notice, the demand cycle tends to move prices up across the entire market. otoh, the effect of supply over 20 years is entirely progressive. More supply lowers rents and prices EXCLUSIVELY at the low end, and the lack of it raises them. 2/ 121
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Cyclical demand is fast-acting & supply is slow-acting. In the right panel, the difference between the red & yellow lines is a big housing cycle in Las Vegas, 2002-2005. Left, from yellow to green is the big Austin cycle in 2022. The difference between orange & black is supply. Austin ftw. 1/ 142
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Hold up any explanation about housing supply in the last 30 years against this chart (single-family homes in the Northeast - Pennsylvania and states to the east) and ask yourself how in the world my explanation became the "contrarian" one instead of those. fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PERMI... 020
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 01/10/2026Many stores today, for the same price, will: 1) pick your order, check it out, and bring it to your car 2) check you out after you pick it 3) let you pick it and check yourself out and real, living & breathing people argue to ban (3) because it steals your labor and takes cashier jobs. 010
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026"Housing is expensive because people pay more to move to the nicer neighborhoods." The difference between prices in those neighborhoods is less than it used to be, not more. 4/ 051
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026"The median Phoenix household has record high income." Housing is taking 3 years of the poorest families' incomes relative to the richest families. They don't care about you statistic. They want their 3 years back. 3/ 141
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026Also, btw, here is a chart of home price/rent ratios in Phoenix over time, arranged by ZIP code income. This chart overturns so many apple carts. "The average home price in Phoenix is the same today as it was in 2005." Metro area averages tell you nothing about what has changed since 2005. 2/ 120
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 29/09/2026More discussion on affordability vs. quality of life. Affordability is inseperable from filtering. We can't make housing more affordable by insisting on only building less valuable homes. It can't happen. 1/ Filtering is affordability is filtering kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/filtering-...kevinerdmann.substack.comFiltering is affordability is filteringIn the previous post, I used a recent post from Charles Marohn at Strong Towns as a framework to discuss errors in the canon about 21st century housing markets. 1186
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Of course affordable housing will be associated with downward filtering. Don't be a weirdo. Filtering is not a housing affordability strategy kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/filtering-...kevinerdmann.substack.comFiltering is not a housing affordability strategyMichael Wiebe 031
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026Google said housing in South Korea has gotten more expensive, and when I asked what they are doing about it, the answers actually generally look like things that will add more housing and make it more accessible. 0140
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026I’m against flock cameras. This is America. If the government needs information about you, they can have a gang of masked thugs bust your window out and demand answers. 1100
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 27/09/2026People will say that housing is a human right and then lock the doors to their house. 072
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannMichael Andersen @andersem.bsky.social · 25/09/2026I have a confession to make. The townhomes I & others spent most of a decade trying to legalize are popping up all over Oregon & elsewhere...and I love that...but they're a problem in one big way. (get ready for a twisty thread about the housing report @sightline.org just published) 1214939
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 24/09/2026Surely everyone can see that this post was meant to be ironic. Right? 030
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 24/09/2026We should do a targeted wealth tax. Just tax those who hold Treasuries 5% of their value each year. Easy peasy. Problems solved. 150
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026It seems to me that we're in the midst of a tech boom. It's the 90s again. Nobody in the 1990s was demanding lower interest rates because of affordability complaints. I'm afraid the housing shortage is going to lead to more unpredictable policy errors. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1YVXX 171
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026It's so hard to create a recession when there is a housing shortage that even the most inverted yield curve since 1980 couldn't do it (though it did knock unemployment up a point). 000
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 23/09/2026The way NPR hosts loudly suck on their cheeks before asking a question has become like fingernails on a chalkboard to me. Does anyone else notice it? 120
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 22/09/2026I think it’s a symptom of our time that this happened, and so many analysts are like “omg they flooded the market with so much supply the whole industry is in chaos!” fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1YR9t 1101
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannAaron Reichlin-Melnick @reichlinmelnick.bsky.social · 21/09/2026The lawyer for the Venezuelan man shot by ICE yesterday says he was discharged from the hospital and transferred to ICE detention while the bullet was still inside of him, and that in Pearsall he's not received any pain meds and was forced to sleep on the floor. 13638331785
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannRyan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 21/09/2026He is not wrong. "There are reasonable grounds to believe that the reported 68 attacks that killed 223 people constituted crimes against humanity of murder under customary international law" - United Nations Special Rapporteur on U.S. Killing “Narco-Terrorists” at Sea www.ohchr.org/sites/defaul... 341127524654
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 20/09/2026Was there anyone in 2015-2019 posting mortgage affordability charts to argue that homes were way too cheap? 032
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannAaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 19/09/2026Dr Oz: "I'll give you a number you'll never forget -- if we can get the average American to be so healthy, so with it, so vital that they just want to work a little longer, it's worth a trillion dollars to the US economy" 657821142
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannMeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 19/09/2026NEWS: The Pentagon has announced mandatory low-testosterone screenings for male troops 30 and older, including screening for symptoms such as “reduced libido, loss of spontaneous morning erections, erectile dysfunction,” and other symptoms. 242551162040
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 18/09/2026Seems like the weakest president in the history of the nation, when you consider that another nation has bombed several of our military bases, and the president isn't even considering whether to declare war on them. 061
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannJed Kolko @jedkolko.bsky.social · 17/09/2026The 2025 American Community Survey should have come out today. But it has been delayed because of unusual political encroachment at Census. ACS drives business and policy decisions, especially in local communities, and is the primary input to Census’s immigration estimates. 118381
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannSam @samd.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Jamelle Bouie said it best (per usual) Trump has the mentality of a domestic abuser h/t @jamellebouie.net 1344373
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannJacob T. Levy @jacobtlevy.bsky.social · 17/09/2026Trump thinks that it's a hostile act against the US if other countries trade with the US, and also if other countries trade with each other without the US. 2026559
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026Interesting. I wonder how much of that was due to supply constraints causing quantity demanded to rise where there were more vacant units. I wonder if the rise in mortgage originations is matched by any change in the geography of new permits. 000
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026There are so many things going on, I’m not sure how it will all net out, but I don’t think, say, Altus, Oklahoma is going to get a second life from wfh. 100
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 16/09/2026After 20 years of zero lower bounds, interest on reserves, quantitative easing, inverted front end/up-sloped back end, etc. it will almost be quaint if we end up just having a good old fashioned Fed induced yield curve inversion. 051
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 15/09/2026I'd argue zoning mostly hurts locals & forces 100,000s to move away from NYC each year, and they would be the main source of newly rising population. But, the same logic holds. Every jurisdiction zones to keep the riff raff out, and they don't care if riff raff from other jurisdictions is displaced. 010
Kevin Erdmann @kevinerdmann.bsky.social · 15/09/2026Future Housing Demand kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/future-hou...kevinerdmann.substack.comFuture Housing DemandOne of the ways to minimize the housing shortage crisis is to point to changing demographics and note that, in a low-immigration scenario, population might stop growing. 120
Reposted by Kevin ErdmannNY Times Pitchbot @nytpitchbot.bsky.social · 14/09/2026Elon Musk is an unstable right-wing grifter with more power than any one else in the world. But my liberal neighbor has convinced my city council to put in bike lanes on the road I use to commute to work. I have never felt more politically homeless. 231399162