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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

I may be wrong here (and I have been!) but I will guess that this will be among the more popular initiatives. 'NIMBYism' by contrast is very much a minority sport rather than a reflection of popular opinion even in a given locality. A miniscule number of people are blocking developments these.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

One argument for a big change in that distribution would be the shift from Saturday polling (2020) to Friday polling (2024). I don't think this is all of it but it would explain some of the shift.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Changes in vote shares and changes in seat shares:

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

The 2024 election produced a much less proportional outcome due to the relative inefficiency of the Independent/Other vote.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 04/12/2024

Only really getting to look at the data from our polling day poll now. Really interesting to see how the most important issue shifted towards the economy both during the campaign and then in particular in the final week.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

Fitzgerald to elect Paschal Donohoe, with some transfers closing to gap. Donohoe's surplus might just about put Marie Sherlock over Gerry Hutch..?

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 01/12/2024

There it is. Gannon's surplus and Fitzpatrick's elimination.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

'I mean they've had their ups and downs, but when all is said and done they're destined to be together.'

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

The interesting one is Sinn Féin. Housing tenure is so strong it almost washes out age entirely. There is still a significant difference between 65+ v 25-34 but the y axis on the right is revealing. A significant part of the SF vote is simply a housing vote.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 27/11/2024

Ask and you receive! Regression analysis shows the effect to be significant even when controlling for age and you're right FF would have the stronger age-effect here.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Previously published this housing figure before looking at this breakdown. Perceptions on who best to tackle housing entirely dependent on your housing status. Owners/non-owners. "Which of the following do you think is best to tackle each of the following issues? Housing"

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

"What information do you want to hear the most from politicians during the election campaign?" Sample: Those that supported FG in early November, but no longer do so.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Was going to say more left wing as it usually is when I do this, but actually compared to Bluesky not that much so.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

Churning them out here.. This is a (first?) poll of BlueSky users from a representative sample. (Voting intentions of those that reported that they used BlueSky in the preceding 24 hours). Quite similar to what Twitter used to look like.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

In our most recent poll we noted a big decline in the FG vote. Down 4. So where where did they go? We can look at our panel data. We can isolate those who supported Fine Gael in the last few months (when they were 25%+) but now do not support Fine Gael. (n=132) They went to Fianna Fáil. n=132

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

FG/FF candidates would retain much of their vote if they were in the other party. Ditto for Lab/Grn/SD.

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Kevin Cunningham @kevcunningham.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

A lot of people would vote for their candidate if they were in another party. Supporters of PBP, Sinn Féin and Independent are more likely to be tied to their specific party. "Would you vote for this candidate if they were a member of another party?"

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