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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

It was so much fun to chat with @jenniferdoleac.bsky.social about my @restatjournal.bsky.social paper—with M.Prem and D.Mejía—for the 126th episode of Probable Causation! Thanks Jen for the invitation (and for paraphrasing my complicated answers 🤣) www.probablecausation.com/podcasts/epi...

probablecausation.com

Episode 126: Juan Vargas — Probable Causation

Date: June 2, 2026

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 28/05/2026

Los tres candidatos con opciones en la primera vuelta presidencial en 🇨🇴tienen planes sobre cómo reducir la violencia. Pero ninguna de estas estrategia ata a el problema de fondo, y la causa de la persistencia del conflicto. Mi columna en El País América Colombia.

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 27/05/2026

Tables at the end of the paper with [H] is the only thing under our control.

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 26/05/2026

Colombia’s problem isn’t negotiation vs. security; it’s 200 years of institutional weakness that turns every reform into a new opportunity for armed groups. Whoever wins this election faces the same trap. Escaping it requires more than the right policy. 🇨🇴 #EleccionesColombia2026

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

10/10 🌍 With ~60 countries still contaminated by landmines, our findings from Colombia offer a roadmap. Demining is more than removing hidden explosives—it’s unlocking human and economic potential. 📄 Full paper at @jpube.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1016/j.jpub…

doi.org

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

9/ 🧠 Policy implications: Demining is expensive, but it pays for itself many times over! 📌 Target demining near roads and schools 📌 Pair demining with development (e.g. crop substitution) 📌 Frame demining as a long-term investment, not just post-conflict cleanup 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

8/ ⚖️ Demining also reduces inequality. Redistributed gains benefit the broader community—not just elites. This underscores its value not just as a safety measure, but as a powerful and inclusive development policy. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

7/ 🌳 Any unintended consequences? No! We found no increase in deforestation or illegal gold mining—meaning that economic gains weren’t captured by extractive or illegal industries. And with complementary crop substitution programs, coca cultivation fell even further. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

6/ 🛣️ Which areas benefit more? Connectivity matters. Areas with better road access see stronger gains. We simulate the national economic impact using a general equilibrium model: Without demining, Colombia’s GDP would’ve been 0.7% lower per year (2013–2019). 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

5/ 📚 Education improves immediately after demining: •Schools reopen •Enrollment surges •Student-teacher ratios fall •More students advance grades It’s like giving children an extra year of school—just by clearing the ground they walk on. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

4/ 💥 Key findings: ✅ Nightlights (a proxy for economic activity) ↑ 11.5% ➡️ municipal GDP ↑ 0.7% ➡️ $1 spent on demining yields ~$6 in benefits. ✅ Population density ↑ 2.6% ✅ Math test pass rate ↑ 6.2 p.p. ✅ Reading test pass rate ↑ 7.5 p.p. ✅ Coca cultivation ↓ 9.9%

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

3/ 💡Methodology: We used geolocated data on 294 demined areas and compared them to regions not yet demined (but eventually would be). Using modern DiD methods (e.g. Callaway & @pedrosantanna.bsky.social 2021), we identified the causal effects of demining on local development. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

2/ Context: Colombia has one of the highest numbers of landmine victims globally—top 3 for homemade mines. But in 2013, amid peace talks with FARC, Colombia began a large-scale humanitarian demining campaign. We analyzed its impact. 👇🏽

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

1/ 🚫💣 Landmines silently continue to threaten lives long after conflicts end. But what happens when we remove them? In the paper, we study the economic and social effects of humanitarian demining in Colombia 🇨🇴. The results are, I think, quite powerful. 👇

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 11/09/2025

Reposting here for folks who left X permanently. So happy to see this paper finally published. And so cool that it found a home at @jpube.bsky.social ! This is paper summarizes what is perhaps the most policy relevant piece of research I’ve conducted so far. A 🧵:

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Santiago Sanchez-Pages @sanpages.eurosky.social · 04/09/2025

Desgraciadamente, importantes partidos y medios de comunicación continúan dando eco y espacio a la idea de que la inmigración trae crimen. ¿Pero qué dice la evidencia? A esto respondo en mi nueva entrada en @nadaesgratis.bsky.social nadaesgratis.es/santiago-san...

nadaesgratis.es

Inmigración y crimen: lo que dice la evidencia

Entre otros temas, este verano ha estado marcado por la agitación del fantasma de la inmigración por parte de los partidos de ultraderecha. Primero alentando los progromos en Torre Pacheco, después ve...

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VoxDev @voxdev.bsky.social · 02/09/2025

🆕 Climate change, natural resources, and conflict: Navigating a complex nexus Today on VoxDev, Oliver Vanden Eynde (@pse.bsky.social)‬ & @jvargas.bsky.social (Collegio Carlo Alberto) discuss how extreme weather and the green transition are reshaping global conflict: voxdev.org/topic/energy...

voxdev.org

Climate change, natural resources, and conflict: Navigating a complex nexus

Extreme weather and the green transition are reshaping global conflict. We summarise the evidence on this trend and explore how policy can respond.

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Journal of Public Economics @jpube.bsky.social · 24/06/2025

Just published in @jpube.bsky.social: "Landmines: The local effects of demining" By Mouno Prem, Miguel E. Purroy, & @jvargas.bsky.social www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti... #econsky

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Catia Batista @catiabatista.bsky.social · 23/05/2025

New paper out in @science.org! “Brain drain” or “brain gain”? Effects of high-skilled international emigration on origin countries doi.org/10.1126/scie...

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 21/02/2025

Very moving piece. Thank you for sharing it.

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Adam Przeworski @adamprz.bsky.social · 19/02/2025

I am keeping a diary of daily events, as they unfold open.substack.com/pub/adamprze... It is available to everyone. I am new to Substack, so please let me know if something is wrong with the link or the file.

Reposted by Juan Vargas

Shelly Lundberg @shellyjlundberg.bsky.social · 18/02/2025

This is a deeply stupid and offensive article. The @nytimes.com is failing to rise to the moment in spectacular fashion.

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 15/02/2025

Los invito a leer mi Op Ed en El Tiempo (con Daniel Mejía y Andrés Rivera) que resume los resultados de un paper que estudia el efecto de los ceses al fuego decretados por el gobierno colombiano sobre los niveles de diferentes tipos de violencia. t.co/prKTktWwyl

t.co

https://www.eltiempo.com/justicia/paz-y-derechos-humanos/los-ceses-del-fuego-aumentaron-los-niveles-de-violencia-contra-la-poblacion-civil-3427043

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

Can’t think of a better choice.

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 01/02/2025

This is great. Florian is an amazing colleague. 👏🏾👏🏾

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 30/01/2025

Also my department. Follow us!

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Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 24/01/2025

"The whole field of economics, or what used to be called political economy, was really founded by people who thought they should be telling other people what to do." This recent talk by Nobel laureate David Card at @rfberlin.bsky.social, on Immigration and Minimum Wages, is magisterial.

youtube.com

RFBerlin Annual Public Lecture with Nobel Prize Laureate David Card

YouTube video by ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Crime economists: CAF-Development Bank of Latin America released this call for proposals to develop policy documents on organized crime in LAC: t.co/Rs0JYvjApm @jenniferdoleac.bsky.social

t.co

https://www.caf.com/en/work-with-us/calls/call-for-proposals-for-policy-documents-organized-crime-in-latin-america-and-the-caribbean/

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Daron Acemoglu @dacemoglumit.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

A thread about whether the global – and American – center-left needs a different kind of liberalism. These are thoughts triggered by Trump’s victory in the United States and the swing against mainstream incumbents in many other elections around the world.

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 02/12/2024

Not every world leader pardons the hunter

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Belinda Archibong @belindaarch.bsky.social · 13/11/2024

Hey all, I created a starter pack with a list of Black economists and academics for an easily accessible list of folks doing research that we can all follow and cite #Blacksky #AddtoBlacksky #Econsky: go.bsky.app/RyKSzcb

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Krugman bets Bluesky is the new old Twitter. Let’s hope he is right.

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Juan Vargas @jvargas.bsky.social · 29/01/2024

Every 2 years, Collegio Carlo Alberto awards the Carlo Alberto Medal to the best Italian economist under 40 “for their outstanding contributions.” Nominations for the 2023 Medal are closing this Wed. Economists from all nationalities can nominate. Do it here: www.carloalberto.org/about/the-ca... !

carloalberto.org

The Carlo Alberto Medal | Collegio Carlo Alberto

The Collegio has instituted the Carlo Alberto Medal to be awarded to a young Italian economist (resident in Italy or abroad) under the age of 40 for his/her

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Julian Reif @julianreif.bsky.social · 25/01/2024

“six hours worth of work on the writing–done by an outside nontechnical editor who probably didn’t fully understand the technical economics–led to economist-readers believing that the paper was of higher quality.” Lots of good specific advice at the end for how to improve writing.

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