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Jamie Pietruska

@jpietruska.bsky.social
1.7K followers 1.2K following 149 posts

Historian & aspiring prediction market journalist | Forecasting, futures, risk, catastrophe, data | Author, Looking Forward: Prediction & Uncertainty in Modern America goo.gl/fwo6Hj | Assoc prof, Rutgers | Opinions my own | jamiepietruska.org

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Reposted by Jamie Pietruska
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 14h
Thanks to our fossil fuel overlords, the weather we’re used to no longer exists.
euronews.com
Showers and storms across Spain this weekend, floods kill 102-year-old woman
A 102-year-old woman has died and about 90 people were rescued in Madrigueras, Albacete, after floods dumped 142 l/m². Rain will persist, with a new storm possible in the west on Sunday. #EuropeNews
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Timnit Gebru @timnitgebru.blacksky.app · 01/10/2026
I'm not sure if y'all saw a CNN report on how the US had almost started WW3 with China based on fabricated information generated by a chatbot, claiming that a Chinese vessel was carrying components of nuclear weapons. That was an "existential threat" to humanity www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
Forget ‘superintelligence’: error-prone AI nearly sparked world war three this month | Timnit Gebru and Emily M Bender
The risks of AI aren’t what we think they are, as a recent security incident between China and the United States reveals
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Matthew Guariglia @mguariglia.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
The NYPD hired their first statisticians to use math to find crime in *1916*---predictive policing and AI in governance are often exacerbating deep-seated problems and to address them we can't just address AI, we also need to address the bigger issues.
A new yor times article from 1916. Headline: "Arithmetic used to detect crimes" and the subhead "police department employs it with success through bureau of statistics."
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Eoin Higgins @eoinhiggins.bsky.social · 20/09/2026
You’re right—that plane shouldn’t have gone there. That’s my fault, and I should have made sure there wasn’t a terminal in the landing path. Would you like me to call emergency services, or assist with lining up takeoffs?
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Courtney Milan @courtneymilan.com · 04/09/2026
Oh my god, this is AWFUL
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Shannon Mattern @shannonmattern.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
Great to see the two biggest public school systems in the US applying AI restrictions. And yes, both can go even farther!
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Mél Hogan / The Data Fix @melhogan.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
Anyone who has conversations about AI with friends, neighbours, family, peers, colleagues.. must watch this:
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Leah Litman @leahlitman.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
*obligatory August post*
August lyrics
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Phil Lewis @phillewis.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
A federal appeals court has ruled that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling, dealing a major blow to the booming industry
cnn.com
States can regulate prediction markets as gambling, federal appeals court rules | CNN Business
A federal appeals court ruled Friday that states can regulate prediction markets like gambling, dealing a major blow to the booming industry.
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Floodlight @floodlightnews.org · 27/08/2026
NEW: Thermal drone footage shows the Microsoft-backed DataOne AI data center in Vineland, NJ is running dozens of gas generators. None of them have permits. A Floodlight visual investigation with @us.theguardian.com:
floodlightnews.org
One of East Coast’s largest data centers accused of ‘violating federal law’
Thermal drone footage shows DataOne — the Microsoft-backed AI data center in Vineland — is powering its operations with dozens of unpermitted generators
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Gabriel Malor @gabrielmalor.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
9th Cir. holds that Kalshi is not exempt from state gaming regulations for its event contracts involving sports betting. Remands for further consideration of its election contracts. Huge blow to Kalshi. Over 90% of its trades in 2025 were sports related. cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/op...
cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
You had me at "take turns guessing the author" 😂😂😂 "Write down the most common intrusive thought that keeps you up at night, but don’t include your name. Then choose a table leader to read each thought aloud and take turns guessing the author."
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
"Instead, his legal team says that the wagers were not financial instruments subject to regulation by the United States’ Commodities Exchange Act but rather good old-fashioned international betting that the US has no authority over."
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Of course Tropical Storm Dolly would bring the rain that is needed without the destructive wind speeds. "And my tears keep falling down As steady as the rain"
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Manisha Sinha @profmsinha.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Historian here at the start of the semester as we deal with the AI onslaught, this at least will elicit a laugh. www.mcsweeneys.net/articles/our...
mcsweeneys.net
Our University Does Not Require Books, Paper, or Human Knowledge
“Such a radical shakeup in learning has never happened before, as far as I know. Is there even a way to learn about whether or not something has happened bef...
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
An excellent article by @annahelhoski.bsky.social on catastrophic risk and prediction markets, featuring ideas from me along with some other people who think it is a good idea to bet on disasters (I do not) www.nerdwallet.com/finance/news...
nerdwallet.com
The Business of Betting on Natural Disasters - NerdWallet
Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allow users to place bets on events like hurricanes and earthquakes, raising ethical and safety concerns.
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Such a brilliant and beautiful essay. "To understand Dolly, you have to read her as a writer. Writing her own story was the most radical, precise way to define herself in a world that kept trying to fit her into a box."
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I am giving a paper on the financialization of weather and climate in online prediction markets at the @finandsoc.bsky.social conference. My cynical take is that growing these markets is a bid to convince regulators that it is not just all about betting on sports & crypto prices (just 97%...)
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Dave Jorgenson @davejorgenson.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
hoping for an alternate ending where he lives to 100
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Ansley Erickson @ansleyerickson.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
Loved learning about Dolly Parton via this podcast series from a few years ago: www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/dol...
wnycstudios.org
Dolly Parton's America : Episodes | WNYC Studios | Podcasts
The story of a legend at the crossroads of America’s culture wars.
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Stacy Fahrenthold @sfahrenthold.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
The American Historical Association hired a lobbying firm to help silence member advocacy on Palestine. In this essay, Adam Rzepka covers @historians.org's relationship w/ Thorn Run Partners, its deep ethical conflicts, & the advocacy crisis AHA has thrust upon us. www.chronicle.com/article/a-sc...
chronicle.com
Opinion | A Scholarly Association’s Secret Washington Playbook
Did the American Historical Association ask a corporate lobbying firm for advice on how to silence its members?
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
👀 weather.com/2026/08/25/s...
weather.com
Atlantic hurricane season waking up: Dolly could soon form
It's closer to Africa right now than anywhere else. But is the latest east Atlantic disturbance a threat, or another El Niño casualty?
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Dr. Samantha Montano @samlmontano.bsky.social · 25/08/2026
Dolly did what other disaster nonprofits are too chicken shit to do — she gave the families affected by a wildfire a universal basic income. www.bpr.org/news/2018-12...
bpr.org
How Dolly Parton Gave $12.5 Million And Unprecedented Research To Sevier County
It’s been two years since wildfires burned Western North Carolina and devastated the town of Gatlinburg, Tennessee. Country music superstar Dolly Parton…
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Electronic Frontier Foundation @eff.org · 24/08/2026
Switching from Flock to another ALPR provider or other police surveillance technology isn't a fix, EFF’s @mguariglia.bsky.social told @NPR.org. "You're just replacing one color of camera for another. Those dangers you were concerned about are still going to be there."
npr.org
As Flock battles public scrutiny, other police surveillance companies see an opening
Dozens of cities have canceled their contracts with Flock. Some are switching to other companies, but privacy experts say they're no better than Flock.
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Nick Sousanis @nsousanis.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
As folks gear up for the new semester, a reminder if anyone needs it, my Ai statement is available for people to make use of in their own materials. It’s downloadable and printable from my site here spinweaveandcut.com/fall-2025-sy...
a snippet of a mini-comic, at top - straight line stretches from point A to B. Immediately below, same dot at A, then becomes a curving, meandering line that winds through the page and ends at a point with rays and a question mark emanating from it. Text reads: "Nothing can do this for you - for that robs you of experience and conflates answers with learning. Rather, it's all the decisions you make along the way, the mistakes, struggles, and surprises! These pathways you create - this is learning. 

https://spinweaveandcut.com/fall-2025-syllabi/
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Worth a read: harpers.org/archive/2026... "If your plan was to kill trust—in journalism, within organizations, and in the public consciousness—the best way to do it would not be to build some complicated bazaar of secret brokers, but to launch an anonymous public market for predictions."
harpers.org
The Chaos Machine, by Finn Brunton
Prediction markets and the triumph of crypto-anarchy
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Andrew Guthrie Ferguson @profferguson.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
If you are focused on Flock in your communities, can I interest you in real-time crime centers, video analytics, drones, sensors, or other pattern-matching and tracking technologies. A narrow focus on ALPRs obscures the other equally pervasive and panoptic policing technologies in use.
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
A bill to ban wildfire betting on prediction markets -- Wildfire Event Contract Prohibition Act -- has been introduced in Congress by Michael Baumgartner (R-WA). Last active wildfire markets I am aware of were from Jan 2025, but better late than never... www.congress.gov/bill/119th-c...
congress.gov
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Brad Heath @bradheath.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat ​bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries. www.reuters.com/business/fin...
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Kalshi is offering a new Heatwaves category in disaster betting, & Polymarket has just added Drought. Does anyone look at this and seriously think "hedging function" and "price discovery mechanism"? Or is it more "yeah let's pass the time and maybe make a few bucks while the planet burns amirite"?
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Went down a GitHub rabbit hole to explore the wonderland of prediction-market agents, aggregators, alerts, arbitrage tools, etc. Found a couple of apps for producing fake Polymarket screenshots "for marketing, entertainment, and educational purposes." What could possibly go wrong, I wonder...? 😱😱😱
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
So it turns out that releasing fake polls can throw off the truth machine okay got it "...it calls into question how information of varying quality might move the needle in betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket."
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Leah Stokes @leahstokes.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Stunning reporting from @ericklinenberg.bsky.social on how climate change driven extreme heat in Europe is reshaping the continent. Must read.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
Did not realize that Polymarket is basically just doing Trump messaging now.
polymarket
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BREAKING: DOJ to send roughly 1,000 monitors to polling sites across the U.S. during the November midterm elections to watch for fraud. 1/2
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vanoreo @vanoreo.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
@edzitron.com had it on the money here
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 18/08/2026
This is the best of the recent articles on the January 2025 wildfire markets -- it gets the chronology right (these markets are *not* currently active) while still highlighting the dangerous material and moral implications of "arson markets."
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Mar Hicks @histoftech.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
ding ding ding I also think it’s relevant that this is in particular a coding tool, and there was likely an effort to give it a masculine name as a result🫠
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Paresh Dave @peard33.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
www.wired.com/story/electi...
wired.com
Election Officials Are Preparing for Prediction Markets to Sow Chaos in the Midterms
From threats to the safety of poll workers to voters who can’t distinguish between odds and results, prediction markets are already scrambling the political process.
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Joseph Cox @josephcox.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
New from 404 Media: we solved which AI company is buying massive shipments of rare books, scanning and destroying them to train AI. We put an Apple AirTag in a rare book, followed it. It ended up at an Amazon facility. Its logo is a dinosaur ripping through a book www.404media.co/we-tracked-a...
404media.co
We Tracked a Shipment of Rare Books. It Ended at an Amazon AI Training Facility
We placed a tracking device in a shipment of rare books to see which AI company was buying it, and found an Amazon facility where Amazon scans and destroys books.
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Kathryn Tewson @kathryntewson.bsky.social · 14/08/2026
A King County Superior Court judge in Washington state has found that Kalshi’s trick of calling itself a “prediction market” doesn’t make it not gambling under the Washington Gambling Act, and has therefore ordered Kalshi to stop almost all activity within the state. Read more here:
atg.wa.gov
Judge orders Kalshi cease numerous Washington operations | Washington State
A King County Superior Court judge issued a final order requiring KalshiEX (Kalshi) to cease many of its Washington operations after finding that Kalshi likely violated the Washington Gambling Act and...
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Noah Rosenblum @narosenblum.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
Who could possibly have foreseen this?
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Bob Henson @bhensonweather.bsky.social · 11/08/2026
The photo (taken by climate scientist @rahmstorf.bsky.social) itself speaks volumes.
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Aparna Nair @disabilitystor1.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
Absolutely bleak reading before the fall semester of 2026 www.newyorker.com/news/fault-l...
newyorker.com
The Despair of the Professor in the Age of A.I.
“Was it always the case that half of our students would cheat if it were easy enough?”
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Jane Rosenzweig @janerosenzweig.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Over the 6 semesters that I taught my writing course "To What Problem is ChatGPT the Solution?" (about AI, not using it to write), I saw a clear evolution from openness to AI as a "tool" to serious concerns about cognitive offloading, privacy, and deskilling/1 www.insidehighered.com/opinion/care...
And these students are not outliers. Young people are very concerned about generative AI degrading their cognitive and social capacities. A recent survey of young Americans under 30 found that 61 percent worry that the use of AI will make people worse at thinking creatively, and 58 percent worry that it will impair the ability to form meaningful relationships with others. Another survey shows that 31 percent of Gen Z respondents reported “anger” about AI, a very large increase from 22 percent the previous year.
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McSweeney's @mcsweeneys.net · 06/08/2026
"THOSE AT HIGH RISK INCLUDE OUTDOOR WORKERS, THE DISABLED, PREGNANT PEOPLE, OLD PEOPLE, YOUNG PEOPLE, ANYONE WITH CARDIOVASCULAR CONDITIONS, ANYONE ON MEDICATION, ANYONE IN DENSE URBAN AREAS, ANYONE WHO IS POOR, PETS…… BASICALLY EVERYONE BUT MARK ZUCKERBERG."
mcsweeneys.net
Heat Advisory
“THOSE AT HIGH RISK INCLUDE OUTDOOR WORKERS, THE DISABLED, PREGNANT PEOPLE, OLD PEOPLE, YOUNG PEOPLE, ANYONE WITH CARDIOVASCULAR CONDITIONS, ANYONE ON MEDICA...
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Jamie Pietruska @jpietruska.bsky.social · 06/08/2026
Good piece in @theguardian.com about the US Senators' letter to the CFTC expressing concern about the Polymarket wildfire markets (which, as I say in the article, is only a year and a half late...) www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026...
theguardian.com
US senators urge crackdown on wildfire betting amid warnings of arson risk
Experts say growing trend on sites such as Polymarket and Kalshi could motivate people to start fires to win money
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Molly White @molly.wiki · 05/08/2026
It's a year and a half after i highlighted the issue, but nice to see: arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...
arstechnica.com
Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction market" bets
Fire experts warn such markets could incentivize arson.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Six of the top-10 costliest wildfire disasters in world history have occurred since 2017.
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Mother Jones @motherjones.com · 03/08/2026
George Santos has been fined $35,000 for attempting to place bets on his own attendance at the State of the Union in February. He’s also been banned from the prediction-market platform Kalshi for 3 years.
motherjones.com
George Santos got busted for manipulating political betting markets—and seems to have little remorse
"Touché bitches lets see who wins!"
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Mark Anthony Neal (@NewBlackMan on X) @markanthonyneal.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
"All of the speculation and hype around A.I. is hiding the fact...It is the backbone of a superstructure that merges regressive politics with unchecked economic power in the guise of technological innovation." -- Tressie McMillan Cottom www.nytimes.com/2026/08/03/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | A Reading List for Our Age of A.I. (Gift Article)
A.I. is a political theory. And it is gobbling up our democracy.
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