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James P. Collins

@jpcollins.me
1.5K followers 926 following 118 posts

UNC Planning PhD candidate studying geographies of climate risk and (im)mobility — jpcollins.me

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Reposted by James P. Collins
David Ho @davidho.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Wow, the Trump EPA is proposing a change to the definition of “discharge of a pollutant” that would exempt moving boats and ships from National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) program requirements. Let the dumping begin*! *Let’s not. Please comment in the Federal Register.
eos.org
EPA Moves to Redefine “Discharge of a Pollutant” - Eos
The EPA is proposing a change to the definition of “discharge of a pollutant” that would exempt moving boats and ships from pollution regulations.
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Reposted by James P. Collins
Max Kozlov @maxkozlov.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
🚨 The NIH is moving to transfer hundreds of millions of dollars in infectious-disease research projects to the DOD under a secret 10-year pact. Here’s what’s happening inside “Operation Prevailing Edge” 🧵👇 www.nature.com/articles/d41...
nature.com
Revealed: inside the US military's plan to tap huge sums from the NIH
An agreement paves the way for hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of projects to be transferred from the NIH’s institute for infectious diseases to the Department of Defense.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 26/08/2026
Glaciers in the Himalayas are rapidly retreating under climate change, leading to widespread formation and expansion of glacial lakes and increasing the risk of glacial lake outburst floods. To date, more than 388 GLOF events have been documented in the region 😰 Source ⬇️
nature.com
Glacial lakes and GLOFs in a warming Himalaya-Karakoram region: current understanding, challenges, and the way forward - npj Natural Hazards
npj Natural Hazards - Glacial lakes and GLOFs in a warming Himalaya-Karakoram region: current understanding, challenges, and the way forward
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Institute of Behavioral Science at CU Boulder @cuboulderibs.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
New research from IBS Director Lori Hunter and #MarieSkłodowska-CurieGlobalFellow Bishawjit Mallick, examines how #genderroles, #economicconstraints, family ties, and #culturalexpectations can shape decisions to #relocate in the face of #climatedisasters. www.colorado.edu/asmagazine/2...
colorado.edu
When leaving isn't a choice, staying becomes one
CU Boulder researchers ask who decides to stay behind when climate disaster strikes.
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 26/08/2026
Open access: my first dissertation paper! Despite chronic flooding impacts, many rural NC households want to stay place, calling flooding "the price of paradise." Our findings add to a growing literature questioning the inevitability of coastal out-migration. www.frontiersin.org/journals/cli...
frontiersin.org
Frontiers | The Price of Paradise: How Communities Tolerated Chronic Coastal Flooding in Rural North Carolina
Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a growing threat to the livability of coastal communities, leading to many projections of out-migration in the coming decades. How...
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Reposted by James P. Collins
Paul Smaldino @psmaldino.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
All of the NSF’s directorates are awarding fewer new grants, but the hardest hit is the social, behavioural and economic sciences (SBE) directorate, which the White House proposed eliminating in its 2027 budget request to Congress. SBE has so far awarded 84 new grants this year, about 11% of its average, mainly in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive neuroscience and decision-making. Much of its portfolio, such as sociology, archaeology, political science, economics and geography, has received zero new awards. “I don’t think they’ve realized yet that there’s no awards,” one NSF staff member says of researchers in those fields. “That’s going to be clear soon.”
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Stand Up for Science! @standupforscience.net · 01/06/2026
Russell Vought has a plan for science, but so do we. Join the fight by joining our Emergency Science Meeting AND taking action against the latest OMB grant funding proposal here 👉 zurl.co/Afprl Donate to our fight here 👉 zurl.co/8BLY8 #StandUpForScience #Science #SaveScience #OMB #FundScience
Promotional graphic for a Stand Up for Science emergency action event. The headline reads “Stop Vought. Save Science.” A photo of Russell Vought appears on the left, framed with tape-style graphics. On the right, a list of actions includes: email and call members of Congress, leave a public comment, donate to Fuel the Fight for Science, and register for an Emergency Science Meeting on June 2. At the bottom, text reads “Emergency Science Meeting, June 2nd, 4 PM EST” alongside a red emergency siren icon and a “Link in Bio” call to action. The design uses a textured red background with torn-paper and protest-poster styling.
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Colette Delawalla, PhD @cdelawalla.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
AS PROMISED: Stop Vought. Save Science. The @standupforscience.net action center is live: fight2win.standupforscience.net REGISTER for our Emergency Science Meeting (6/2, 4pm et), Call and email Congress, and leave your public comment all in one place! #standupforscience #TakeActionNow
fight2win.standupforscience.net
Stand up for Science
Stand up for Science
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Daniel Swain @weatherwest.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
I know there is a lot going on, and not all of this is new, but numerous aspects of this OMB proposal are highly alarming and would, if enacted, effectively force American scientists receiving federal funding (which is...most of them in some capacity or another) to stop engaging with the public.
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 22/05/2026
"The BOG's performance bonus to Hans comes as universities across the System have been cutting costs amid federal and state funding uncertainty. "Chancellor Lee Roberts is in the midst of cutting more than $85 million from UNC-Chapel Hill... www.wunc.org/education/20...
wunc.org
UNC Board Of Governors awards System President bonus worth more than 80% of his salary
The BOG's performance bonus to System President Peter Hans comes as universities across the System have been cutting costs amid federal and state funding uncertainty.
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 17/05/2026
The future of drought isn’t just less rain. Climate change can make land drier even if rainfall doesn’t decrease. Why? Rain is falling in fewer, heavier bursts - causing more runoff + evaporation, and less water stored in soil. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage - Nature
Concentration of precipitation in large events decreases land water availability, and this effect will further increase with a future warming climate.
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 13/05/2026
submitted my first dissertation paper 🥳
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 30/03/2026
Crowdfunding for "The Sky is the Limit," a documentary about a crown jewel of American science, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the peril it faces.
kickstarter.com
The Sky is the Limit (NCAR)
A documentary about a crown jewel of American science, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the peril it faces.
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Reposted by James P. Collins
Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 22/03/2026
A total of 13 states have tied or set all-time March heat records over the period Mar. 18-21, and one or more stations in Arizona and California have tied or broken the previous all-time U.S. heat record of 108°F each of those four days. This heatwave is in a class of its own historically!
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United Farm Workers @ufw.bsky.social · 08/03/2026
"Gloria" shared this pic of herself picking strawberries in CAs Central Coast. "The water was up to my knees making it very hard to push my cart. My feet were so wet and cold, I couldn’t feel them. Growers have us harvest despite the flooding to avoid losing product." #WeFeedYou
"Gloria" shared this pic of herself picking strawberries in CAs Central Coast in a very watery row
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Inside Higher Ed @insidehighered.com · 03/03/2026
UNC Chancellor Scraps Secret Recording Policy bit.ly/4aMlew6
A photo of UNC Chapel Hill's campus.
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Dr. Jonathan Foley @globalecoguy.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
While others are stepping back on climate, Project Drawdown is stepping up! We’re proud to announce the Climate Science Serving America Fellowship to support U.S.-based Ph.D.-level scientists & engineers focused on climate solutions for the public good. drawdown.org/news/project...
drawdown.org
Project Drawdown launches Climate Science Serving America Fellowship to support scientists working in the public good
Fellowship seeks early- to mid-career researchers based in America who are committed to science and public expertise
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Andrew Rumbach @andrewrumbach.bsky.social · 12/02/2026
Want to know how many disaster declarations are being made under the 2nd Trump Administration, and how long they are taking? I made a simple dashboard to help: andrewrumbach.substack.com/p/a-dashboar...
andrewrumbach.substack.com
A dashboard for tracking FEMA major disaster declarations
My last post described how presidential disaster declarations are an important indicator of how the 2nd Trump Administration intends to govern disasters.
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Ryan Briggs @ryancbriggs.net · 11/02/2026
I have a new paper. We look at ~all stats articles in political science post-2010 & show that 94% have abstracts that claim to reject a null. Only 2% present only null results. This is hard to explain unless the research process has a filter that only lets rejections through.
It must be very hard to publish null results
Publication practices in the social sciences act as a filter that favors statistically significant results over null findings. While the problem of selection on significance (SoS) is well-known in theory, it has been difficult to measure its scope empirically, and it has been challenging to determine how selection varies across contexts. In this article, we use large language models to extract granular and validated data on about 100,000 articles published in over 150 political science journals from 2010 to 2024. We show that fewer than 2% of articles that rely on statistical methods report null-only findings in their abstracts, while over 90% of papers highlight significant results. To put these findings in perspective, we develop and calibrate a simple model of publication bias. Across a range of plausible assumptions, we find that statistically significant results are estimated to be one to two orders of magnitude more likely to enter the published record than null results. Leveraging metadata extracted from individual articles, we show that the pattern of strong SoS holds across subfields, journals, methods, and time periods. However, a few factors such as pre-registration and randomized experiments correlate with greater acceptance of null results. We conclude by discussing implications for the field and the potential of our new dataset for investigating other questions about political science.
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
SUPER excited to see this live in the world. In particular hugely admire this team's dedication to openness and transparency about methodology, code, assumptions. Every tool has strengths and weaknesses, but sharing openly is how the whole community can improve. Big kudos @carbonplan.org
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 10/02/2026
"Our main conclusion ... is that several well-cited messaging strategies reliably influence pro-environmental attitudes and behavioural intentions in the United States ... We found little evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects between Democrats and Republicans..."
nature.com
A registered report megastudy on the persuasiveness of the most-cited climate messages - Nature Climate Change
How to effectively communicate climate change to the public has long been studied and debated. Through a registered report megastudy, researchers tested the ten most-cited climate change messaging str...
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 30/01/2026
"The study’s findings are also in line with previous research: A 2021 study suggested that PM2.5 from wildfires is up to 10 times more harmful than PM2.5 from other sources, such as ambient pollution."
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NBER @nber.org · 25/01/2026
New data show that business concentration has increased persistently in many countries over the past century by sales, net income, and capital, but not by employment, from Yueran Ma, Mengdi Zhang, and Kaspar Zimmermann www.nber.org/papers/w34711
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David John Gagne II @djgagnedos.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
NSF just posted their Dear Colleague Letter regarding the restructuring of NCAR. www.nsf.gov/funding/info...
nsf.gov
NSF Intent to Restructure Critical Weather Infrastructure
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 23/01/2026
@nws.noaa.gov's experimental probabilistic precip forecast shows the chance of snow, ice, and total accumulations through Monday
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
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Reposted by James P. Collins
Reed Maxwell @reedh2o.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
New work from our team: we mapped water table depth at 30-meter resolution across the entire continental US. That's ~8 billion grid cells, trained on over 1 million well observations. Highest-resolution estimate to date.
Map of water table depth across the continental United States at 30-meter resolution, with inset panels showing detail at 100km, 10km, and 1km scales in both eastern and western US locations. Color scale shows depth from shallow (blue) to deep (yellow) on a log scale.
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 15/01/2026
rabbit hole OTD "I consider the role of animals in gentrification processes ... how the materialities of horse bodies are embodied in specific landscape changes: qualities of pasture, styles of fencing and stables ... and lead to the territorialisation and contestation of broader rural landscapes."
sciencedirect.com
Horsification: Embodied gentrification in rural landscapes
In this paper, I consider the role of animals in gentrification processes, developing a conceptualisation of ‘horsification’: the proliferation of hor…
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Reposted by James P. Collins
Steve Koller @stevekoller.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
Neptune Flood (subsidiary of NYSE:NP) is actively working to privatize the NFIP. Company leadership has communicated their work and this goal, in line with Project 2025, to the White House. Privatization would have big implications for flood-prone communities. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/15/c...
nytimes.com
How One Company Is Pushing a Private Takeover of Flood Insurance
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Kelly Hereid @kellyhereid.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Caveat here being that 5cm hail is listed as being where damage to buildings starts... but based on an EU study where much more of the building stock is tile roof. Asphalt shingles, obviously much more common in US, take damage and need replacement at much smaller hail sizes.
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 11/01/2026
Have you ever heard of the black-white mortality crossover? Before about 82, black men have higher age-specific probabilities of dying than white men. Between roughly 82–86, the gap closes. After 86, the pattern actually reverses: white men become more likely to die at each age than black men.
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Katharine Hayhoe @katharinehayhoe.com · 08/01/2026
After the US admin cancelled the $B Climate + Weather Disaster dataset, @climatecentral.org hired the scientists who ran it and set it back up. Now the 2025 numbers are in: it's 3rd highest year on record and highest year w/o land-falling hurricanes. More: www.climatecentral.org/climate-serv...
A map of the US with each 2025 billion-plus dollar weather and climate disaster geo-located on it. Source: Climate Central
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NPR @npr.org · 06/01/2026
County officials told KQED on Monday the exact damage estimates aren’t yet known, but that hundreds of structures were impacted by the flooding brought on by stronger-than-expected rainfall and king tides, the highest tides of the year. (via @kqednews.kqed.org)
n.pr
Marin County Looked Like ‘a Lagoon’ After King Tides, Heavy Rain | KQED
Flooding in Marin County this weekend foreshadows a far wetter future due to human-caused climate change.
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 05/01/2026
"Nutrition is a central determinant of human health, yet the direct impacts of climate on dietary intake remain poorly understood ... [we] show that both extreme heat and cold trigger a shift toward energy-dense diets, adding a previously overlooked behavioral channel to the climate–health nexus."
nber.org
Extreme Temperatures Promote High-Fat Diets
Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 25/12/2025
Researchers recently asked Americans what income level other people need in order to live a good life. A whopping 86% of Americans reported income levels well below what others say they themselves need. Fascinating!
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John Drury @profjohndrury.bsky.social · 21/12/2025
'respondents with multiple flood experience are more likely to perceive social norms supporting individual protective behavior, ascribe more responsibility to public authorities and less to their community' nhess.copernicus.org/articles/25/...
nhess.copernicus.org
Polarization in Flood Risk Management? Sensitivity of Norm Perception and Responsibility Attribution to Frequent Flood Experience
Abstract. In this study, we examine the relationship between frequent flood experience (FFE), norm perception, and responsibility attribution. Given that floods are assumed to occur more often in the ...
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John Holbein @johnholbein1.bsky.social · 22/12/2025
What would it cost to end extreme poverty? "We estimate that reducing the poverty rate to 1% ... would cost $170B nominal per year." "The results correspond to a cost of (approximately) ending extreme poverty of roughly 0.3% of global GDP."
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Jared Rennie @jjrennie.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
Where rivers have flooded in 2025, using data from USGS and @nws.noaa.gov #StateOfFlood
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Carlos Martinez, PhD @carlonimbus.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
@ucs.org has released a letter you can write to your Congressperson to save @ncar-ucar.bsky.social Share your voice on the significant value of this bedrock climate and weather insitution. Your story matters! secure.ucs.org/a/2025-prote...
secure.ucs.org
Protect the National Center for Atmospheric Research
Write today and urge your members of Congress to oppose the Trump administration's plans to dismantle the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR.) Your message to Congress will help protect NC...
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Karen Benjamin Guzzo @karenguzzo.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
America First, at America’s first public university.
dailytarheel.com
UNC cuts all six area studies research centers, effective 2026
As part of the University's plan to make $70 million in budget cuts across the institution, Vice Chancellor for Finance and Operations Nate Knuffman projected that cutting 14 centers and institutes in...
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 17/12/2025
"under-the-radar trends showcased how countries with aging populations and shrinking birthrates are seeking to fill labor market and skills gaps"
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Chris Vagasky @coweatherman.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
You know those dropsondes that get dropped into hurricanes and improve the forecasts by up to 20%? Those are developed by NCAR and manufactured in Colorado by Vaisala. Without NCAR developing the dropsonde, the algorithms, and software that operate it, hurricane forecasting takes a huge step back.
A brown and white tube connected to a green parachute. This is a dropsonde.
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Bob Kopp @bobkopp.net · 17/12/2025
Time to repurpose #AGU25 as a mass mobilization in support of NCAR, NSF, NOAA, NASA, USGS, DOE BER, and the Congressional power of the purse.
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Sonja Drimmer @sonjadrimmer.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
"We envision a resistance that is...a repudiation of the efficiencies that automated algorithmic education falsely promises: a resistance comprising the collective force of small acts of friction." "How to Resist AI in Education" by me & @cnygren.bsky.social www.publicbooks.org/four-frictio...
publicbooks.org
Four Frictions: or, How to Resist AI in Education - Public Books
We are calling for resistance to the AI industry’s ongoing capture of higher education.
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Dr. Jeff Masters @drjeffmasters.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
It’s been observed that tropical cyclones have been migrating poleward in recent years, and climate change was suspected as a cause. But this study found SST patterns caused it, “and that future changes may differ markedly from the recent multi-decadal trends.” www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability - Nature Geoscience
A tripolar pattern of Pacific sea surface temperature variability strongly modulates tropical cyclone latitudes and largely determined their poleward migration during the period 1980–2024, according t...
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James P. Collins @jpcollins.me · 16/12/2025
“...destruction rates were linked to a shift in exposure from interface WUI to low-density wildlands ... Lower-density areas may face greater destruction likelihood as a result of lower suppression efforts, as they may have limited accessibility for firefighters or may be a lower priority...”
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NBER @nber.org · 15/12/2025
Nursing home effort fluctuates with the inspection cycle, affecting patient survival. Unpredictable inspection schedules may boost effort and save lives, from Ashvin Gandhi, Andrew Olenski, and Maggie Shi www.nber.org/papers/w34491
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Meade Krosby @meadekrosby.bsky.social · 14/12/2025
Folks on Washington state community Facebook groups are arguing about whether images of local flood damage are real or not. Generative AI is making it so much harder for people to get the reliable information they need to make decisions during disasters.
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