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Jon Baker

@jonbakerocean.bsky.social
666 followers 580 following 217 posts

Climate Scientist @metoffice 🌍🌊 | Exploring AMOC and global ocean circulation | Views are my own | linktr.ee/jonbakerocean

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Reposted by Jon Baker
Shane Elipot @selipot.bsky.social · 01/10/2026
🌊 Hiring a postdoc in PO at UMiami @miamirosenstiel.bsky.social & UMaine! Study the AMOC across the RAPID-MOCHA & OSNAP arrays using models, moorings, SWOT & ML. Shape your own project, join cruises 🚢 Rolling review, apply early! umiami.wd1.myworkdayjobs.com/UMCareerStaf... #AMOC #OSNAP #RAPID
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Emma Boland @emmaboland.bsky.social · 29/07/2026
We're #recruiting for an Ocean Modeller 😃 🌊 Come join the team at @bas.ac.uk , we're pretty cool 🧊 🇦🇶 fa-evzn-saasfaukgovprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
fa-evzn-saasfaukgovprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com
Physical Oceanographer
British Antarctic Survey | Fixed-Term Contract - 20 Months | £42,688 to £46,957 per annum | Cambridge
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British Antarctic Survey 🐧 @bas.ac.uk · 21/07/2026
What if the ocean current keeping Britain warm started to slow down? ☔ The AMOC acts like a giant conveyor belt, moving heat from the tropics to our shores. Models predict that the AMOC could slow down or collapse – potentially leading to new extremes in weather. 🧵1/2
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
• For the energy sector, the key challenge is managing risk under uncertainty, with the more likely challenge being gradual but potentially substantial AMOC weakening interacting with climate change, rather than sudden disruption.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Some key messages: • The AMOC is very likely to weaken as the climate warms. • A collapse this century appears unlikely in current climate model projections, although uncertainty remains. • Different studies can reach contrasting conclusions because they use different methods and assumptions.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Great to speak at the Westminster Energy Forum on the latest science on the AMOC. Thanks to the organisers for the invitation and to everyone for the engaging discussion.
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Natassa Romanou @aromanou.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
If you are an oceanographer you know how important Argo floats have been for our understanding of ocean hydrography & circulation, more recently, ocean biogeochemistry. Today, like everything else, they are in peril. Commentary led by @solilyquy.bsky.social Read & show your support. bit.ly/4fd2whZ
bit.ly
Argo at a Crossroads: Achievements, Impacts, and the Imperative for Sustained Global Ocean Observations | Oceanography
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Great to chat with Justin Rowlatt for this BBC piece on the latest science surrounding the AMOC and the ongoing debate about its future 🌊 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
After record heat, could the Atlantic make Britain's weather even more extreme?
As temperatures rise, scientists are investigating whether a changing Atlantic could bring more volatile weather to the UK
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ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
What'd happen if we managed to limit global warming to around 2°C—but the AMOC still underwent a major weakening? Join us today bit.ly/climtip-webi... with @froeltho.bsky.social on impacts of #AMOC collapse under 2°C scenario! 📅 7 July, 2–3pm CEST #ClimateScience #ClimTip @unibe.ch #TippingPoints
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Lily Dove @solilyquy.bsky.social · 15/06/2026
🌊 New article: For the first time from space, we can infer vertical velocities at the ocean's fine scales! 🛰️ 🌀🎢 www.nature.com/articles/s43...
nature.com
The three-dimensional structure of fine-scale, vertical velocities in the Southern Ocean inferred from space - Communications Earth & Environment
Persistent velocity cores in Southern Ocean narrow frontal zones extend to 1000 m depths with vertical velocities that frequently exceed 100 m/day, according to a vertical velocity reconstruction meth...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 05/06/2026
ESA is seeking input on “EO for AMOC: Gaps, challenges, opportunities” to help identify key scientific gaps and opportunities for Earth observation and satellite data to improve our understanding and monitoring of the AMOC 🌊 forms.office.com/pages/respon...
forms.office.com
Microsoft Forms
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Reposted by Jon Baker
OSNAP @o-snap.org · 29/05/2026
👨‍🎓Postdoc Opportunity at AWI 👨‍🎓 🌊 Studying the role of freshwater in the Southern Ocean - Antarctic climate system 📅 Application Due: June 3, 2026 ℹ️ More Information: www.o-snap.org/postdoc-oppo...
o-snap.org
Postdoc Opportunity at AWI - OSNAP
Application Deadline: June 3rd, 2026. Apply online here: Postdoc in “The role of freshwater in the Southern Ocean – Antarctic climate system” Information from the link is below: BackgroundYou will be ...
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Jacob Wenegrat @roguewave.bsky.social · 16/05/2026
What happens if you smooth the ocean? 🌊 A brief thread about our new paper @agu.org Geophysical Research Letters: agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/... When we do theory and modeling we tend to use very smooth bottom topography (for numerical reasons and to reduce complexity). But...
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com
Turbulent Mixing and Dissipation Around Rough Seamounts
Small-scale topographic roughness can increase dissipation in seamount wakes by up to tenfold and enhance mixing by a factor of three This effect is most pronounced for seamounts typical of the S...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 12/05/2026
Thanks for sharing your results - really interesting analysis!
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
For those interested, ClimateAdam has put together an engaging video on some of the latest AMOC science and debates, including a range of perspectives and uncertainties surrounding future risks: youtu.be/8eJ-TFIlLK0?...
youtu.be
Could Climate Change cause an Ocean Tipping Point... Soon..?
YouTube video by ClimateAdam
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 11/05/2026
A balanced overview of some of the latest AMOC science and debates. There is still substantial uncertainty, and while collapse cannot be ruled out, claims of very high collapse probabilities (>50%) currently go beyond what the combined evidence from observations and models can robustly establish 🌊
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Paper: www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
New study on blocking the Bering Strait to prevent an AMOC collapse. It highlights how complex the system is. Interventions like this are unlikely to offer a simple solution. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions remains the most reliable way to reduce the risk of AMOC weakening 🌊
livescience.com
Building a massive dam between Alaska and Russia could prevent AMOC collapse, scientists say
Building a dam in the Bering Strait might preserve the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but experts warn it could also threaten wildlife, Indigenous people and shipping — and could actuall...
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Willem Huiskamp @willemh.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
New paper published today that was led by some awesome students who did their master theses with us. We find an increase in Nordic seas overturning as the AMOC weakens due to global warming 🌊
os.copernicus.org
Nordic overturning increases as AMOC weakens in response to global warming
Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is weakening in response to global warming, while the Nordic Seas Overturning Circulation (NOC) is projected to strengthen. So far, the...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 17/04/2026
This new study highlights important ocean processes relevant to AMOC stability. But there is still substantial uncertainty across models, so it should be interpreted with caution. Some studies suggest higher risk after 2100, but collapse before 2100 still appears unlikely from the broader evidence.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 16/04/2026
I’ve seen the study - it’s interesting research extending our understanding of changes beyond 2100. I was also quoted in the Guardian article you mention. More climate model simulations extending beyond 2100 are needed to properly assess these risks.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
Link to the original study:
nature.com
Collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation would lead to substantial oceanic carbon release and additional global warming - Communications Earth & Environment
The collapse of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation would result in increase of 47-83 ppm of global mean atmospheric carbon dioxide and 0. 2 °C of additional global warming at higher carb...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 14/04/2026
I was quoted in this @newscientist.com article on a study linking AMOC collapse to a large CO₂ release from the Southern Ocean. “To see this play out in a warmer climate, and with such a large increase in CO₂, is quite striking.” Key uncertainties remain in how SO processes respond across models 🌊
newscientist.com
Collapse of key ocean current may release billions of tonnes of carbon
If the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation shut down, the knock-on effects could release hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2, raising global temperatures even further
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Willem Huiskamp @willemh.bsky.social · 20/03/2026
Great vid on Antarctic sea ice featuring some familiar faces (nicely done, @edoddridge.bsky.social @ariaan.bsky.social @climatenerilie.bsky.social 😃)
youtu.be
A Hidden Antarctic Tipping Point May Have Just Been Triggered
YouTube video by PBS Terra
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Bjerknes Center for Climate Research (BCCR) @bjerknes.uib.no · 16/03/2026
❗NEW POSITION! Postdoctoral research fellow at the Geophysical Institute and the Bjerknes Centre, within physical oceanography. The position is for a fixed-term period of 3 years and is associated with the Arctic Ocean 2050 program. 🧪🌊 @unibergen.bsky.social www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421) | University of Bergen
Job title: Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421), Employer: University of Bergen, Deadline: Friday, April 17, 2026
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James Rae @mudwaterclimate.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Chair in Earth Sciences position @uniofstandrews.bsky.social closing soon - Monday 23 March. Very broad remit, so if you’d like to join our lovely school, and get to live in the super beautiful and friendly wee nation of Scotland, please apply! www.st-andrews.ac.uk/earth-scienc... ⚒️🌊🧪
East Sands beach, St Andrews, in the sunshine (which happens more often than you probably think!)
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Marius Årthun @mariusarthun.bsky.social · 11/03/2026
Bergen calling! Postdoc position at @unibergen.bsky.social and @bjerknes.uib.no focused on the Arctic Ocean and its impacts on the Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC). The position is part of the national Arctic Ocean 2050 program. www.jobbnorge.no/en/available...
jobbnorge.no
Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421) | University of Bergen
Job title: Postdoctoral Research Fellow in physical oceanography (297421), Employer: University of Bergen, Deadline: Friday, April 17, 2026
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 25/02/2026
Speaking at #OSM2026 tomorrow (Thu 11:50, Hall 1) in the ocean overturning dynamics session. Presenting results from our Nature paper on why the AMOC weakens but is unlikely to collapse this century: Southern Ocean winds sustain the circulation in climate models 🌊
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Jakob Dörr @jakobdoerr.bsky.social · 13/02/2026
🌊Where and how is dense water in the Arctic formed? In our new paper, we decompose the Arctic overturning circulation (ArMOC), the northernmost part of the AMOC. Check it out 🔽 @bjerknes.uib.no @mariusarthun.bsky.social @kristoferdoos.bsky.social @nansensenteret.bsky.social @noc.ac.uk
os.copernicus.org
The Arctic overturning circulation: transformations, pathways and timescales
Abstract. The Arctic is the northernmost terminus of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and is an important source of the densest waters feeding its lower limb. However, relatively little...
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 17/01/2026
🌊 In 2025, global sea surface temperatures were the 3rd warmest on record, ~0.5°C above the 1981–2010 average. SSTs dipped slightly from 2023–24 as El Niño shifted toward La Niña, but warm oceans still fueled floods and drought worldwide.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
📢 PhD opportunity! 🌊 “To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate” Deadline: 8 Jan 2026 Work with Bristol, Liverpool & the Met Office on AMOC stability using observations, models & AI. Details: www.nercgw4plus.ac.uk/projects-202... Please share with anyone interested!
nercgw4plus.ac.uk
To collapse or not: the stability of the AMOC in a warming climate — NERC GW4+
Supervisor: Dr Rory Bingham Project keywords: climate, oceanography, AMOC, sea-level, AI
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Swinda Falkena @swinda.bsky.social · 21/11/2025
📢 New paper on the impacts of AMOC collapse on European hydroclimate. 🌊 We find an AMOC collapse would exacerbate drought conditions across Europe, linked to reduced precipitation. In combination with climate change droughts are expected to become more frequent and severe. doi.org/10.5194/hess...
doi.org
Changing European hydroclimate under a collapsed AMOC in the Community Earth System Model
Abstract. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is expected to weaken or even collapse under anthropogenic climate change. Given the importance of the AMOC in the present-day climate,...
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Thomas Rackow 🧊 @trackow.bsky.social · 08/11/2025
Happy to see this out! Meltwater can delay future surface warming, and its interannual variations impact ocean stratification & overturning.​​ This effect is usually absent from models. Including it as forcing may lead to more realistic simulation of surface temperature and sea ice trends🧊🌊 (1/7)
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Gavin Schmidt @climateofgavin.bsky.social · 07/11/2025
Finally out! The outcome of a virtual workshop in Feb 2024 with modelers and observationalists to put together data and protocols to include historical changes in ice sheet/ice shelf discharge in CMIP models. Hopefully not too late for some CMIP7 runs! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...
gmd.copernicus.org
Datasets and protocols for including anomalous freshwater from melting ice sheets in climate simulations
Abstract. Anomalous freshwater fluxes from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and ice shelves are impacting the surrounding oceans, and we need to be able to account for these effects in climate m...
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Frédéric Cyr @fcyr.bsky.social · 05/11/2025
PhD opportunity in oceanography 🌊🌊🌊 "The role of the northwest Atlantic boundary current in the meridional overturning circulation". This is an @o-snap.org related study about the AMOC. @marineinstitute.bsky.social @oceanaccess.bsky.social More information here: www.mi.mun.ca/media/marine...
mi.mun.ca
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
Exciting to see our overturning pathway method applied in new research! Song et al. use it on CMIP6 PMIP glacial models and find these pathways shape the AMOC response - confirming our earlier idealised results for glacial climates 🌊 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Southern Ocean influence on Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation across climate states - Nature Communications
The properties of the Antarctic Bottom Water largely determine the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation’s depth and strength across climate states by affecting the routes via which North Atlant...
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Prof Ian Hall @ianhall.bsky.social · 15/10/2025
🌊 Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming Over the past six decades, the warming of the 0-700 m Atlantic-Indian sector was 40.0 ± 5.7% faster than the Pacific sector, nearly doubling at ~44°S. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Inter-basin contrast in the Southern Ocean warming - Nature Communications
This work highlights a sharp warming contrast within the Southern Ocean: the Atlantic-Indian sector warms faster than the Pacific due to wind-driven heat transport. The contrast is projected to persis...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 14/10/2025
A full AMOC shutdown to 0 Sv after 2100 looks very unlikely, as Southern Ocean winds maintain a weak overturning even under extreme forcing. A collapse below ~6 Sv is more likely than before 2100, depending on future emissions. Even a weakened AMOC could bring major climate impacts.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
Across all SSPs, every CMIP6 model remains above 6 Sv (though a few come close) throughout this century — so no AMOC collapse occurs, by either the ~6 Sv “near-shutdown” or 0 Sv “full-shutdown” definitions
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 13/10/2025
To clarify: by real-world forcing I mean any of the CMIP6 SSP scenarios — even the most extreme, SSP585. These AMOC time series are documented in Weijer et al., 2020 and Baker et al., 2023.
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Always interesting to see this come up again 😄 Our Nature paper didn’t “redefine” collapse — there’s no single threshold, though ~6 Sv is common. We used 0 Sv only for extreme 4×CO₂ runs (full shutdown). Under real-world forcing, models stay above 6 Sv this century — no collapse. Clarified 🌊👇
nature.com
Author Correction: Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature
Nature - Author Correction: Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes
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Chris Osburn @closburn.bsky.social · 09/10/2025
Physical Oceanographers! Come join us in the Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences at NC State University. Job posting now live: jobs.ncsu.edu/postings/223... 🌊
jobs.ncsu.edu
Assistant Professor
The Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences (MEAS) at North Carolina State University seeks to fill a tenure-track faculty position at the rank of Assistant Professor in physical oceanog...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 08/10/2025
🎥 My recent ClimTip talk on our Nature paper is now online! We find that an AMOC collapse is unlikely this century as Southern Ocean winds pull deep waters to the surface, stabilising it in a weakened state. Still, the global ocean circulation is expected to change greatly as the planet warms 🌊
youtube.com
Will the AMOC Collapse? Insights from Climate Models | Jonathan Baker | ClimTip Webinar
YouTube video by ClimTip
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Linus Vogt @linusvogt.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
🚨🌊 New highlight paper out today in Earth System Dynamics! We find an observational constraint implying more future global ocean heat uptake, cloud feedback, and warming than the CMIP6 mean. This contrasts with previous estimates based on past warming trends. 🔗 esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
esd.copernicus.org
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...
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Jens Terhaar @polarocean.bsky.social · 02/10/2025
Future atmospheric and ocean warming over the 21st century might be larger than previously expected based on a new study by @linusvogt.bsky.social Linus & I developed the idea during Linus research visit with me at @whoi.edu and turned it then into this paper: esd.copernicus.org/articles/16/...
esd.copernicus.org
Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent
Abstract. The ocean takes up over 90 % of the excess heat stored in the Earth system as a result of anthropogenic climate change, which has led to sea level rise and an intensification of marine extre...
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James Rae @mudwaterclimate.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
🚨New paper on Southern Ocean CO2🚨 Using a suite of Earth system models, Maddie Shankle et al show that better ventilation of intermediate waters in the North Pacific ends up reducing outgassing of CO2 in the Southern Ocean 🌊🧪⚒️🧵 @earthscista.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Southern Ocean CO2 outgassing and nutrient load reduced by a well-ventilated glacial North Pacific - Nature Communications
A better-ventilated North Pacific could have reduced the carbon of water upwelled in the Southern Ocean, reducing outgassing and revealing a remote influence on Southern Ocean biogeochemistry in glaci...
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Jens Daniel Müller @jens-d-mueller.bsky.social · 02/09/2025
🌊 In 2023, the ocean carbon sink weakened for the first time in a record-hot year 🌡️🌎 Our new study in Nature Climate Change quantifies this unexpected decline and explains how it came about. 👇 doi.org/10.1038/s415...
doi.org
Unexpected decline in the ocean carbon sink under record-high sea surface temperatures in 2023 - Nature Climate Change
The ocean carbon sink strengthened in previous warm El Niño years due to reduced CO2 outgassing in the tropics. Here the authors show that the ocean carbon sink declined in 2023 despite record-high se...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
⏰ Reminder: Tomorrow I’ll join @climtip.bsky.social to discuss the future of the AMOC. Our Nature study suggests collapse is unlikely this century — but the risks remain critical. 🗓️ 2 Sept, 14:00–15:00 CEST 👉 tum-conf.zoom.us/j/6933421034...
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Jon Baker @jonbakerocean.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
My comments in The Guardian about an important new study. It shows AMOC collapse risks increase after 2100, particularly in extreme high-end scenarios, but also in a few lower ones. We need more climate model simulations that run beyond 2100 to assess these risks properly 🌊
theguardian.com
Collapse of critical Atlantic current is no longer low-likelihood, study finds
Scientists say ‘shocking’ discovery shows rapid cuts in carbon emissions are needed to avoid catastrophic fallout
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ClimTip | Climate Tipping Points in the Earth System @climtip.bsky.social · 26/08/2025
1/ Headlines in 2023 warned the AMOC – the Atlantic “conveyor belt” that warms Europe – could collapse in 2025. New research led by @jonbakerocean.bsky.social ‬in @nature.com challenges that: shutdown this century is unlikely. But weakening is real, and risky. 🧵 www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes - Nature
Climate models suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is unlikely to collapse this century, owing to stabilization from wind-driven upwelling in the Southern Ocean.
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