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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Caveat: only 34 of 83 counties reported precinct results, and the missing ones skew rural (Stevens led those counties). Full interactive analysis + methods: jskuk.github.io/mi-2026-sena...

jskuk.github.io

What decided the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary

2,864 precincts joined to exact census demographics and three presidential elections.

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Stevens led in R→R→R and D→R→R precincts (scattered Flint suburbs, Saginaw's edge, Port Huron). The most Republican-trending terrain in the sample was hers; nearly everything that had moved toward Dems at any point broke for El-Sayed. 7/

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

His coalition also spanned precincts moving in opposite directions. His strongest ground: D→D→R Dearborn precincts (67.8%). His second-strongest: the exact mirror image R→R→D West Michigan and Traverse City professionals (53.0%). 6/

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

If this looks familiar, it should: it's the Mamdani coalition. Educated but not rich, plus strong support in Muslim communities, weaker in the wealthiest suburbs. The same signature that won NYC showed up in Michigan's Senate primary. 5/

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Every community on this chart is in Michigan's top third for college degrees. The dividing line in the El-Sayed–Stevens primary wasn't education, it was income. Exhibit A: Ferndale vs Birmingham, 7 miles apart on Woodward, 83 points apart at the ballot box. 4/

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

These are Michigan communities sorted by education (rows) and income (columns). Look across any row: same education, more money, better for Stevens. Look down any column: same money, more education, better for El-Sayed. Two forces, opposite directions. 3/

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

The demographic basics: El-Sayed ran stronger in younger, more educated, more Hispanic, and more Arab American precincts, and weaker in precincts with higher Black population share. He also did better where precincts had swung toward Dems from 2016→2020. 2/

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John Kuk @johnskuk.bsky.social · 07/08/2026

Everyone assumes candidates like El-Sayed win affluent, educated professionals. Michigan's precinct data says otherwise: comparing equally-educated precincts, the LESS wealthy ones gave him a HIGHER share. I matched 2,864 precincts to census data + 3 presidential elections.🧵1/

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Nazita Lajevardi @nazita.bsky.social · 03/09/2025

"In fact, a review of the administrative record makes it difficult to conclude anything other than that Defendants used antisemitism as a smokescreen for a targeted, ideologically-motivated assault on this country’s premier universities ..."

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Nicole Yadon @nyadon.bsky.social · 16/04/2025

Excited to share that my new book is now available for pre-order! This book has been a labor of love for the past decade & I am grateful to a whole community of people who supported this project. Get 30% off your purchase using code UCPNEW at UChicago Press! Link: press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

press.uchicago.edu

The Politics of Skin Tone

A nuanced examination of the salience of skin tone within African American politics. Research shows that skin tone is associated with significant differences in life experiences. On average, African A...

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Jean Hong 洪知延 홍지연 @jeanhong.bsky.social · 09/12/2024

I appeared in wbur radio show (also part of npr podcast) called “On Point” to discuss what happened in South Korea. The show describes the event, background, and the past quite well if you are curious about the bigger picture. @johnskuk.bsky.social was there too! www.npr.org/podcasts/510...

npr.org

On Point

Let's make sense of the world – together. From the economy and health care to politics and the environment – and so much more – On Point host Meghna Chakrabarti speaks with newsmakers and real people about the issues that matter most.

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Filipe Campante @filipecampante.bsky.social · 29/02/2024

Today is an excellent day to remind all of you Americans that the Brazilian electoral court banned Bolsonaro from running in the next election within six months from his attempted insurrection. By now, 14 months later, he’s had his passport confiscated so he won’t escape from punishment.

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Álvaro La Parra-Pérez @alvarolaparra.bsky.social · 06/11/2023

Althoff’s JMP blows my mind: they trace *each Black family’s* linked US census and administrative records in 1850-2000 and show that Black families with enslaved ancestors have less education, income, and wealth today than Black families with free ancestors lukasalthoff.github.io/jmp/althoff_...

lukasalthoff.github.io

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Hans Hassell @hjghassell.bsky.social · 26/09/2023

Polisky folks! 2nd Annual EPOVB conference will be in Tallahassee at FSU Feb. 29 through March 2 (an amazing time of year time to be in Tallahassee) See below for details. Funding available for grad student travel. Submissions here: fsu.qualtrics.com/jfe/form/SV_...

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Steve Rogers @steverogersinfo.bsky.social · 07/09/2023

New Publication: “What Americans know about Statehouse Democracy,” forthcoming at SPPQ. Americans answered questions about state v. federal politics, executive powers, descriptive representation, legislative institutions, the economy, and state policies. A 🧵 of results (1/11)

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