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John Pollock

@johnpollock.bsky.social
2K followers 379 following 126 posts

Communications for Chatham House (@chathamhouse.org) | Writer @theworldtoday.org | Think tanks and higher education | Posts on international affairs/security | China | Views my own.

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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 22h
Having staked so much on victory in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to make any concessions in the face of mounting pressures. Russia's establishment, meanwhile, is signalling an appetite for an end to the war. Read Natalya Kovaleva's analysis for the autumn issue of @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
Russia’s elites pay ever greater price for Ukraine war
High-level dissent is being stamped out as Putin makes big business bear the costs of the invasion – but concern is mounting, writes Natalya Kovaleva.
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 03/10/2026
Rising demand for sanctioned oil is entrenching the shadow fleet into the global economy. Following the energy shock triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis, countries have turned to sanctioned crude oil. Read Nitya Labh's analysis for the autumn issue of @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
Will the oil-tanker shadow fleet ever be brought back into line?
Sanctions are inadvertently transforming ‘dark’ tankers taking Russian and Iranian oil around the world into a parallel trading system. Even with improved international relations, they are unlikely to...
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 03/10/2026
On Taiwan, Xi Jinping has undertaken a paradigm shift away from his predecessors. Xi has made Taiwan central to his China Dream of National Rejuvenation — making 2050 the deadline for incorporating the island into China. Read Steve Tsang's analysis for the autumn issue of @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
What the West fails to grasp about China’s strategy to lead the world
Xi Jinping wants to forge ‘a common destiny for humankind’ by winning over the Global South and taking Taiwan. But if America and Europe are to counter this ‘double pivot’, they must better understand...
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 02/10/2026
The strikes by Iran on Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities in 2019 exposed the limits of America's security umbrella. The Iran war has now reinforced the lesson: the United States cannot fully protect the Gulf monarchies. Read Mohsen Milani's latest analysis for the autumn issue of @theworldtoday.org
chathamhouse.org
How will the Iran war reshape the Persian Gulf?
When the fighting ends, America’s predominance in the region is likely to be eroded as Iran reasserts itself, the Arab monarchies reconsider their security – and China sees an opportunity. By Mohsen M...
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 01/10/2026
Over a million people – more than 15 per cent of Lebanon's population – have been displaced in the past two years of war between Hezbollah and Israel. Lebanon is facing a displacement crisis it can ill afford. Read Lemma Shehadi's (@thenationalnews.com) reporting for @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
Lebanon’s Shia refugees don’t know where to turn
Lebanese fleeing the country’s south are caught between the Israeli occupation and Hezbollah’s refusal to disarm. But for those seeking refuge in Beirut, further struggles await, writes Lemma Shehadi.
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 01/10/2026
Even if Donald Trump’s voter suppression and subversion efforts fail in November, they may create lasting doubt about the 2026 midterms result — and further undermine the faith of Americans in their democracy. Read the latest analysis by Bruce Stokes for the autumn issue of @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
What will happen if Trump rejects the midterm results?
The administration’s efforts to undermine confidence in the US electoral system could spark a political crisis in November – with consequences for the 2028 presidential race and beyond, writes Bruce S...
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 01/10/2026
Having staked so much on victory in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin appears unwilling to make any concessions in the face of mounting pressures. Russia's establishment, meanwhile, is signalling an appetite for an end to the war. Read Natalya Kovaleva's analysis for the autumn issue of @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
Russia’s elites pay ever greater price for Ukraine war
High-level dissent is being stamped out as Putin makes big business bear the costs of the invasion – but concern is mounting, writes Natalya Kovaleva.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 24/09/2026
"It's very high on diplomacy and on rhetoric, Donald Trump referred to Xi Jinping as his 'best friend'. The issue of Taiwan, tariffs and AI regulation are the three things to watch for." Yu Jie on Xi Jinping's state visit to Washington DC and the key issues facing US-China ties, via BBC News.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 22/09/2026
"This war in the Middle East has expanded its scope, out of Iran, into the Strait of Hormuz — and now further into the Bab el-Mandeb, drawing in the Houthis and Saudi Arabia." Sanam Vakil on the UK's decision to provide military support to Saudi Arabia against the Houthis in Yemen, via BBC News.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 18/09/2026
Together with Iran’s disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran and its Houthis allies now have capacity to exert pressure on two of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
chathamhouse.org
The Houthis’ capture of Mocha has transformed the war in Yemen – and the geopolitics of the Red Sea
Iran and its allies can now exert pressure on two strategic maritime chokepoints, with global implications. A more coherent international approach to Yemen is needed.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 15/09/2026
"For the Houthis, this is a significant moment for their ability to project power." Farea Al-Muslimi joined BBC News to discuss the Houthis offensive in Yemen along the Red Sea coast and the attacks on Saudi Arabia.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 11/09/2026
"This is significant for the Houthis but is important for the [Houthis] ally Iran which now sits on two of the most important chokepoints in the Middle East." Farea Al-Muslimi on the offensive by the Houthis towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait and what it means for the Red Sea, via BBC World Service.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 11/09/2026
"It's a huge win for the Iranians and in the long term it will have a huge impact on the Saudis since they survived the Hormuz crisis by using the Red Sea as an alternative route." Farea Al-Muslimi on the renewed offensive by the Houthis in Yemen towards the Bab al-Mandab Strait, via BBC Radio 4.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 11/09/2026
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia has moved far beyond arms supplies. Pyongyang is becoming an institutionalized part of Moscow’s war machine.
chathamhouse.org
North Korea’s military partnership with Russia has consequences far beyond Ukraine
North Korea is emerging as Russia’s reserve arsenal – and potentially its reserve army. This deepening partnership has strengthened Pyongyang’s military capabilities and its strategic position in East...
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 10/09/2026
"The map favours Democrats in the House but in the Senate it's a harder path. It is Democrats election to lose here." Laurel Rapp on Donald Trump's promise of $5,000 for voters and the political dynamics going into the US midterm elections, via BBC News.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 10/09/2026
The US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage. Read @rolandparis.bsky.social's latest analysis for Chatham House.
chathamhouse.org
Canada's retaliatory tariffs put Trump's trade strategy to the test
US–Canada trade war will test not only economic strength but also political will. On the latter, Canada may have an advantage.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 29/08/2026
"This is a hugely risky and a long term endeavor. It is not in the interest of the Venezuelan people, and it's not even in the interests of the US." Christopher Sabatini on the deal announced by the Trump administration to control 65 billion barrels of oil from Venezuela's reserves, via @cnn.com.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 24/08/2026
Chatham House experts and researchers are available to follow on Bluesky. Connect with our experts here and follow them for their analysis on key international events and major global trends. ⬇️ go.bsky.app/UKHXrog
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 08/08/2026
The Economist Insider🎙️| What does Iran want? Sanam Vakil joined @dsorennie.bsky.social for the @economist.com's Insider podcast to discuss Iran's new cadre of leaders and the motives driving Tehran's actions amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 15/07/2026
"It is likely that these strikes will continue at a low-level as part of this attritional campaign, while negotiations also take place." Sanam Vakil on the on-going US military strikes against Iran and the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via BBC News.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 08/07/2026
"President Trump does recognise that he perhaps bought too much into the Israeli pitch that this would be an easy, quick war." Sanam Vakil discussed with @camanpour.bsky.social the relationship between Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump amid the wars in Iran and Lebanon, via @cnn.com.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 08/07/2026
"This is the second round of kinetic back and forth between the US and Iran." Sanam Vakil joined @camanpour.bsky.social to discuss the military clashes between Iran and the US and the future of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), via @cnn.com.
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Reposted by John Pollock
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 08/07/2026
Whether the United States reduces support for NATO or withdraws entirely, Europe needs a new security architecture — starting with cooperation between EU states and Turkey, Britain and Norway. Read @galipdalay.bsky.social's analysis on NATO and Europe for the summer issue of @theworldtoday.org.
chathamhouse.org
Turkey presses NATO’s EU members to broaden their horizons
As well as pushing for wider European cooperation in the alliance, the Ankara summit host knows that it is key to helping Europe regain influence in its rapidly changing southern neighbourhood, says G...
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 25/06/2026
"I do think it's not only shooting yourself in the foot — but it's like amputating your leg without a medical reason for doing it." President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit. Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 22/06/2026
After decades of hostility, withdrawal from the JCPOA and two US-Israeli wars against Iran, there is little basis for confidence – or trust – between Tehran and Washington.
chathamhouse.org
Will the US–Iran ceasefire hold?
Both sides want to buy time. But other factors like midterm elections, Israel, and deep mistrust may intervene.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 12/06/2026
A year after the Strategic Defence Review was agreed, the UK government has decided not to fund its own review. In doing so, it is not merely failing to move forward — it is actively going backwards.
chathamhouse.org
John Healey’s resignation highlights profound strategic failure in the UK government’s approach to defence
General Sir Richard Barrons says a lack of government competence is making the UK less safe and undermining its reputation with allies.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 10/06/2026
If Russia can claim victory in Ukraine – or even if it is perceived as victorious – Moscow will be emboldened with serious consequences for the entire Black Sea region.
chathamhouse.org
Understanding Russia’s Black Sea strategy
How to strengthen Europe and NATO’s approach to the region
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 05/06/2026
Iran's leadership feels emboldened. Its command structure endured repeated US-Israeli strikes and Tehran's leverage has increased with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) analysis on the US-Iran negotiations for @theguardian.com.
theguardian.com
Iran and the US both think they are winning the war. The truth is they are both losing | Sanam Vakil
The current ceasefire has held just enough to prevent a return to all-out war, but neither side is close to achieving peace, says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at...
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 21/05/2026
The Xi–Putin relationship remains one of the most consequential strategic partnerships in the world. Yet its durability lies not in limitless friendship, but in carefully managed limits.
chathamhouse.org
China and Russia’s strategic duo endures – but its limits are clear
This week’s summit shows the relationship is resilient, rooted in shared interests. But China remains wary of commitments on various fronts.
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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Thinking of all my former colleagues at the @uniofnottingham.bsky.social today. This looks absolutely devastating.
theguardian.com
Thousands of University of Nottingham staff told they are at risk of redundancy
Institution says it could run out of money by 2031 and wants to cut more than 600 academic and support posts
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 12/05/2026
Donald Trump's goals for Venezuela and Iran carried an implicit message: maximum pressure sanctions failed, requiring an escalation to US military strikes. Cuba may be next.
chathamhouse.org
Do Trump’s ‘maximum pressure’ sanctions inevitably lead to military action?
When ‘maximum’ economic pressure fails to bring regime change, and rhetoric has made diplomacy politically impossible, momentum towards military solutions will grow.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 06/05/2026
China will not displace the US as the Persian Gulf's security guarantor, but Beijing could play a role in building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their strategies.
chathamhouse.org
China will benefit from the Iran war, regardless of any deal between Trump and Tehran
China will not displace the US as regional security guarantor, but it could play an important role building a new regional order, as Gulf states rethink their security strategies.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 22/04/2026
As the world scrambles to respond to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Iran war should prompt preparations for a crisis over Taiwan.
chathamhouse.org
A Taiwan crisis would cause far more global economic damage than Strait of Hormuz disruption
As China ramps up its pressure on Taiwan, the Strait of Hormuz closure must serve as a wake-up call for European policymakers.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 23/03/2026
"The Islamic Republic is not only ready and willing to continue to fight for what it sees as an existential war— but that it is prepared for a longer fight." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the latest developments in the US-Israeli war on Iran, via BBC News⤵️
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 21/03/2026
"Our interests in Europe and the UK are the same. Our values in Europe and the UK are the same. We need a UK voice in Europe. We really miss you guys." President Alexander Stubb of Finland offers his view on Brexit. Watch the event ➡️ bit.ly/4lGe54k
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 17/03/2026
"I think Brexit was a colossal mistake." President Alexander Stubb of Finland spoke at Chatham House today about Brexit, the opportunities for cooperation between Europe and the UK, enlargement of the EU and the need for ‘flexible integration’.
chathamhouse.org
Brexit was ‘a colossal mistake’, says President Stubb of Finland – but Europe should build a flexible partnership with the UK
During a speech at Chatham House the president outlined why the EU must embrace ‘flexible integration’ to forge closer relations with the UK and countries like Ukraine.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 14/03/2026
Iran could come to resemble Iraq after the 1991 Gulf war: a country militarily defeated and economically debilitated yet still governed by a reconstituted form of the same regime. Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Iran for the @financialtimes.com.
ft.com
Why Iran could become the next Iraq
The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict
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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
Another op-ed to add to your weekend reading list. My @chathamhouse.org colleague Christopher Sabatini writes for the @nytimes.com about the Trump administration’s policy towards Cuba and the humanitarian crisis there. Important analysis given unfolding events in Iran and Venezuela.
nytimes.com
Opinion | Trump Isn’t Ready for What He’s Starting in Cuba
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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 14/03/2026
“Regimes built around powerful security institutions have a history of resilience, even in defeat.” An important read by my @chathamhouse.org colleague Sanam Vakil in the @financialtimes.com this morning on what a post-war Iran might look like, namely Saddam Hussein’s Iraq.
ft.com
Why Iran could become the next Iraq
The first Gulf war left a weakened regime in place without a political settlement — paving the way for future conflict
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 13/03/2026
Policymakers in Beijing have become increasingly convinced that globalization – once the engine of China’s meteoric growth – is becoming a source of vulnerability.
chathamhouse.org
China’s Five Year Plan commits to economic resilience – as the Iran war exposes the fragility of global supply
Beijing is striving for tech self-reliance, aiming to embed intelligent technologies in its economy. But there is a tension in the strategy that could define China’s next decade.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 13/03/2026
"Traffic has ground practically to a halt with 300 tankers building up in the Persian Gulf. Iran has achieved its aims but if it does move to formally close the Strait then that is a serious escalation." Sanam Vakil joined Wolf Blitzer to discuss the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, via @cnn.com.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 05/03/2026
“The sad reality is they will have broken Iran and then will leave in place hardline remnants of an old regime that will be equally brutal, but economically strangled." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the consequences for Iran from the US-Israeli military campaign, via BBC Radio 4.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 01/03/2026
For the Islamic Republic, the priority is survival. Iran is not fighting to win in conventional terms, but the regime is fighting to endure. Read Sanam Vakil’s analysis on the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, via @theguardian.com.
theguardian.com
Iran may yet endure this war, but the Islamic Republic as we have known it cannot survive unchanged | Sanam Vakil
The regime may now have to meet Trump’s demands merely to save itself. And he needs a coherent plan to deal with what he has unleashed, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House
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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 27/02/2026
Further to this point, MizarVision has now released images of the USS Gerald R Ford underway in the eastern Mediterranean with clear views of the flight deck. Now imagine MizarVision doing this in the build up to a crisis in the Western Pacific with US carrier groups near Taiwan.
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John Pollock @johnpollock.bsky.social · 26/02/2026
We are now in the world where Chinese commercial intelligence companies can photograph US F-22A stealth fighters at Israel’s Ovda Air Base and make satellite photos readily available for dissemination. MizarVision has only been around since 2021. This is a major shift with huge implications.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 13/02/2026
Iran’s opposition groups must learn to work together, otherwise the Islamic Republic will persist. Not because it commands popular support — but because there is no alternative. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis with @alexvatanka.bsky.social via @foreignaffairs.com ⤵️
foreignaffairs.com
Iran’s Divided Opposition
Only a unified movement can threaten the regime.
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 12/02/2026
"It remains to be seen whether Bangladesh can move on beyond the politics of protest, the politics of revenge which have plagued the country for decades." @chietigj.bsky.social on Bangladesh's first election since the overthrow of Sheikh Hasina, via @france24.com ⤵️
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 12/02/2026
"I don't think that if the Trump administration scores some form of regime change [in Cuba] we would see China or Russia come to the defence of the Castro regime." Christopher Sabatini on the Trump administration's assertive policy towards Cuba, via @deutschewelle.dw.com ⤵️
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Reposted by John Pollock
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 04/02/2026
Iran is confronting a strategic reality it has never faced before – a simultaneous crisis of domestic legitimacy and a threat of external attack so severe that regime survival can no longer be taken for granted. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis for @theguardian.com ⤵️
theguardian.com
War, a Trump-imposed deal or internal regime collapse: for Tehran, none of the options are good | Sanam Vakil
Iran’s leaders now face unprecedented peril. The regime has lost its footing, and the global mechanisms to avoid conflict no longer work, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House
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