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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa

@chmenap.bsky.social
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The Middle East and North Africa Programme @chathamhouse.bsky.social | A world-leading centre for analysis, policy research and debate on the MENA region. 🔗 kalam.chathamhouse.org

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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 07/08/2026
"The aim of this arrangement would be to build some confidence and then go back to the Memorandum of Understanding, restarting the 60-day clock." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the emerging details of the Iran-Oman deal on the Strait of Hormuz, via @cnn.com.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 04/08/2026
By calling Israel's bluff, Hamas's latest move could put external pressure on Israel in Gaza for the first time in many months. Read Julie Norman's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Gaza for Chatham House ⤵️
chathamhouse.org
By agreeing to disarm, Hamas is trying to call Israel’s bluff in Gaza
The move may lead to more pressure on Israel to implement Trump’s 20-point plan, but both sides are likely to keep dragging out the process while avoiding any real commitments.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 30/07/2026
"Iran has made it clear that its retaliation is not going to happen in one or two days but will take months and months." Renad Mansour (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the escalating conflict between Iran and the United States in the Middle East, via BBC News.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 08/07/2026
On the sidelines of the 2026 NATO summit in Ankara, @chathamhouse.org in partnership with Stratejik Araştırmalar Merkezi, hosted an event with Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan. The event was chaired by @galipdalay.bsky.social (@chmenap.bsky.social) and held under the Chatham House Rule ⤵️
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
The World Today @theworldtoday.org · 24/03/2026
Have US-Israeli strikes dealt a final blow to the Iranian regime? However this war ends, it will leave Iran weaker and less able to exert regional influence, writes Sanam Vakil (of @chmenap.bsky.social): www.chathamhouse.org/publications...
chathamhouse.org
How Iran’s ‘forward defence’ became a strategic boomerang
Tehran’s decades-long cultivation of the ‘axis of resistance’ led to the war with US and Israel that it long sought to avoid – whatever the outcome, the regime is weakened, writes Sanam Vakil.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 23/03/2026
"I do not think this is the end of hostilities. The strikes will continue, it's just that there is a cease and desist for five days on energy infrastructure." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on Donald Trump's decision to delay strikes against Iran's power plants, via BBC News ⤵️
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Winthrop Rodgers @wrodgers2.bsky.social · 09/03/2026
NEW from me for @chmenap.bsky.social: The US does not have a settled and coherent strategy for its newest war. Trump has gone back and forth over whether to support the Iranian Kurds, who must balance their own long-term interests with this moment of opportunity. www.chathamhouse.org/2026/03/kurd...
chathamhouse.org
Kurdish groups in Iran face risky dilemma amid unclear US endgame
The Trump administration has given mixed messages about its support for a potential Kurdish uprising, which would face a range of challenges against an uncertain backdrop.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 06/03/2026
📢 Upcoming events The MENA Programme’s coverage of the ongoing US–Israel war on Iran continues. In our upcoming webinars, experts unpack the conflict’s implications for Iran and Iraq. 🧵
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 05/03/2026
“The sad reality is they will have broken Iran and then will leave in place hardline remnants of an old regime that will be equally brutal, but economically strangled." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the consequences for Iran from the US-Israeli military campaign, via BBC Radio 4.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 05/03/2026
"President Trump presented this as a historic generational opportunity but it's actually looking like a historic generational disaster." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined the BBC's Jeremy Bowen to discuss the impact of the US-Israel military strikes on the people of Iran, via BBC News.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 03/03/2026
“Over the course of just 48 hours, Iran has struck out across the Middle East and violated the sovereignty of many of its neighbours.” Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on Iran’s military response to the US-Israeli strikes, via @bbcnewsnight.bsky.social.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 01/03/2026
For the Islamic Republic, the priority is survival. Iran is not fighting to win in conventional terms, but the regime is fighting to endure. Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on the US and Israeli military strikes on Iran, via @theguardian.com.
theguardian.com
Iran may yet endure this war, but the Islamic Republic as we have known it cannot survive unchanged | Sanam Vakil
The regime may now have to meet Trump’s demands merely to save itself. And he needs a coherent plan to deal with what he has unleashed, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 02/03/2026
📢 New event | US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East? H. A. Hellyer, Mara Karlin, Vali Nasr, Bader Al-Saif and Sanam Vakil examine how the military escalation is likely to play out, and the potential consequences. 📅 5 March 🕐 11.30 GMT 📍 Zoom www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
chathamhouse.org
US–Israel strikes on Iran: What next for the Middle East?
The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran with the stated aim of regime change. Speakers in this online-only webinar will examine how the military escalation is likely to play out, and the potential ...
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 23/02/2026
📺Can Libya escape the cycle of conflict? 'The state doesn't really have a handle over its own spending'. Tim Eaton discusses his new research paper with Farea Al-Muslimi ➡️Read the full report: chathamhouse.org/2025/12/esca... www.youtube.com/watch?v=C7I6...
youtube.com
Can Libya escape the cycle of conflict?
YouTube video by Chatham House
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 20/02/2026
'For Middle Eastern leaders, the threats have changed: the greatest risks are now an expansionist and aggressive Israel, and the chaos of a potentially collapsed Iranian state', writes @galipdalay.bsky.social Read the latest Expert Comment ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/why-...
chathamhouse.org
Why are Middle Eastern governments lobbying against a US attack on Iran?
Threat perceptions have changed. Qatar, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Egypt all wish to avoid a war that would bring even more upheaval to the region.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 19/02/2026
Trump’s plan could doom aspirations for a unified Palestinian state. If Arab and European states do not act, they risk letting Palestine become transformed into the Israeli right’s dream, writes Neil Quilliam. Read the new Expert Comment ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/risk...
chathamhouse.org
The risks of Trump’s peace plan: Two Gazas and an annexed West Bank
Trump’s plan could doom aspirations for a unified Palestinian state. European and Arab states should pressure Washington before it’s too late.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 18/02/2026
🎥 Event recording: 'Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace?' Tawakkol Karman reflects on the legacy of Yemen’s 2011 revolution. Watch the recording below. English ➡️ www.youtube.com/live/Gd583QG... Arabic ➡️ www.youtube.com/live/ZEFeeMz...
youtube.com
Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace? (English)
YouTube video by Chatham House
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
📢 Starting at 16.00 GMT: 'Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace?' Tawakkol Karman reflects on the legacy of Yemen’s 2011 revolution & how ongoing developments are reshaping society, with Farea Al-Muslimi. Register now to watch the livesteam ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
chathamhouse.org
Yemen’s enduring war: What will it take to bring peace?
Tawakkol Karman, a Yemeni activist, journalist and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, reflects on the legacy of Yemen’s 2011 revolution, why the country continues to be plagued by violence, and what its futu...
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 17/02/2026
As Damascus and its backers move to remake Syria in their preferred image, the Kurds will face major challenges in maintaining the compromises they have managed to salvage, writes @wrodgers2.bsky.social. www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...
chathamhouse.org
What recent developments in Syria mean for the Kurds
Kurdish forces suffered a major setback as the Damascus government seized northeast Syria and cemented its partnership with Washington — yet Kurdish cross-border solidarity has been renewed.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 13/02/2026
The surprise return of the Iraq's controversial former prime minister Nouri al-Maliki reveals Iraq remains a battleground for the US and Iran. Read @renadmansour.bsky.social's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on Iraq's domestic politics⤵️
chathamhouse.org
What Nouri al-Maliki’s prime minister bid tells us about Iraq
The surprise return of the controversial former leader has revealed that Iraq is still a US–Iran battleground.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 13/02/2026
Iran’s opposition groups must learn to work together, otherwise the Islamic Republic will persist. Not because it commands popular support — but because there is no alternative. Read Sanam Vakil's (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis with @alexvatanka.bsky.social via @foreignaffairs.com ⤵️
foreignaffairs.com
Iran’s Divided Opposition
Only a unified movement can threaten the regime.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 11/02/2026
We are delighted to welcome Hady Amr to the MENA Programme! As an Associate Fellow, Hady will contribute to our work on Israel and Palestine, the Levant, and US foreign policy in the MENA region. www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/our...
chathamhouse.org
Hady Amr
Hady Amr is an Associate Fellow with the Middle East and North Africa Programme. He is also currently a nonresident senior fellow in the Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution and ...
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 10/02/2026
Kurdish forces suffered a major setback as the Damascus government seized northeast Syria and cemented its partnership with Washington — yet Kurdish cross-border solidarity has been renewed, writes @wrodgers2.bsky.social. Read the new Expert Comment ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...
chathamhouse.org
What recent developments in Syria mean for the Kurds
Kurdish forces suffered a major setback as the Damascus government seized northeast Syria and cemented its partnership with Washington — yet Kurdish cross-border solidarity has been renewed.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 06/02/2026
Podcast🎙️| Can diplomacy avert a US-Iran war? Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) joined @gideonrachman.bsky.social's podcast to discuss the risks of a US war with Iran and the crisis of legitimacy facing the Islamic Republic. Listen via @financialtimes.com⤵️
ft.com
Can diplomacy avert a US-Iran war?
Islamic regime faces ‘a reckoning’
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 09/02/2026
The surprise return of Nouri al-Maliki as a prime-ministerial candidate has revealed that Iraq is still a US–Iran battleground, writes @renadmansour.bsky.social. www.chathamhouse.org/2026/02/what...
chathamhouse.org
What Nouri al-Maliki’s prime minister bid tells us about Iraq
The surprise return of the controversial former leader has revealed that Iraq is still a US–Iran battleground.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 05/02/2026
📢 NEW EVENT: How can Libya reconcile & reunify after 15 years of instability? Join in person or online for a discussion with HE Abdullah al-Lafi, Member of the Libyan Presidential Council. 📅 12/2 🕐 Noon GMT 📍 @chathamhouse.org www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
chathamhouse.org
How can Libya reconcile and reunify after 15 years of instability?
HE Abdullah al-Lafi, Member of the Libyan Presidential Council—the three‑member body that serves as Libya’s head of state—will outline how international partners can support and engage with Libya to t...
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 27/01/2026
🎥 Event recording: 'Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling?' @faisalalyafai.bsky.social, Galip Dalay, Tim Eaton, @renadmansour.bsky.social & Sanam Vakil discuss political, security & economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026. Watch in full ⤵️ www.youtube.com/live/6viPAwN...
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 23/01/2026
"This year will be the most consequential year for the Islamic Republic. There will either be transition from within or forced transition." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the major challenges facing the regime in Iran this year ⤵️
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 20/01/2026
Even though the White House pulled back from military action, the threat of force is still on the table. Trump's approach is to use pressure & unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US, writes Sanam Vakil. www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trum...
chathamhouse.org
Trump’s objective is to force Iran into strategic submission
The threat of force is still very much on the table – as the president seeks to use pressure and unpredictability to turn Iranian weakness into a durable shift that benefits the US.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 16/01/2026
Clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF and deadlocked talks with Israel threaten to drag Syria into renewed conflict. The EU should step in with a longer-term approach, writes Neil Quilliam. www.chathamhouse.org/2026/01/trum...
chathamhouse.org
Trump’s Syria policy is at risk of unravelling
Clashes between the Syrian government and the SDF and deadlocked talks with Israel threaten to drag Syria into renewed conflict. The EU should step in with a longer-term approach.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 15/01/2026
📢 NEW WEBINAR | Iran's protests: Will this time be different? Renad Mansour, Shayan Sardarizadeh, Nate Swanson, Sanam Vakil & Azadeh Zamirirad discuss the protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s response & what might happen next. 📅 19/1 🕐 15.00 GMT Register ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...
chathamhouse.org
Iran's protests: Will this time be different?
Experts discuss the protests in Iran, the Islamic Republic’s response, and what might happen next.
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 13/01/2026
Donald Trump has threatened potential military intervention on behalf of the protesters. Tehran has responded by warning that any US strike could trigger retaliation. Read Sanam Vakil’s (@chmenap.bsky.social) latest analysis on the protests in Iran, via @theguardian.com.
theguardian.com
With thousands dead, the Iranian regime may survive these protests – but not in its current form | Sanam Vakil
With fear, surveillance and brute force only set to increase, there are disturbing parallels with Saddam Hussein’s Iraq, says Sanam Vakil of Chatham House
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 12/01/2026
"Without strong and coordinated support from the US, it's hard to see how protestors inside Iran can brave the repression which has been extraordinary." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the violent crackdown on anti-government protestors by Iran's regime, via BBC News ⤵️
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 11/01/2026
"These protests, whatever the outcome, will further damage an already fractured legitimacy for a state system that is at the end of its life." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the impact of anti-government protestors on the Islamic Republic of Iran, via @cnn.com ⤵️
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chatham House @chathamhouse.org · 05/01/2026
"The Iranian government led by Masoud Pezeshkian is looking to placate popular concerns, get strikers in urban areas off the streets and buy some time as Iran is facing multiple threats." Sanam Vakil (@chmenap.bsky.social) on the anti-government protests in Iran, via BBC News ⤵️
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 23/12/2025
📢 Join us on 20 January for 'Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling?' Galip Dalay, Tim Eaton, Renad Mansour & Sanam Vakil discuss the key political, security & economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026. 🕐 17.15 GMT 📍 @chathamhouse.org & online www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
chathamhouse.org
Is the MENA region stabilizing or spiralling?
Experts discuss the key political, security, and economic dynamics to watch in MENA in 2026.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 18/12/2025
📢NEW PAPER: How the Middle East & North Africa can benefit from adaptive climate governance Karim Elgendy argues that adaptive climate governance can be most effective, allowing MENA states to balance public participation & capacity to deliver results. www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/how-...
chathamhouse.org
How the Middle East and North Africa can benefit from adaptive climate governance
Striking the balance between rights-based and technocratic approaches
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 17/12/2025
🚨 NEW @chathamhouse.org paper: Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya Tim Eaton argues that efforts to restore stability in Libya have too often focused on power- and wealth-sharing among rival factions. 🧵 www.chathamhouse.org/2025/12/esca...
chathamhouse.org
Escaping the cycle of conflict in Libya
Why an enhanced ‘economic track’ must be integrated into political negotiations
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Winthrop Rodgers @wrodgers2.bsky.social · 16/12/2025
Work in the summer was dominated by regional affairs. @chmenap.bsky.social asked me to write about how the relationship between Turkey & Iran affects the Kurds. It requires careful management to balance competition between the 2 states, while avoiding friction. kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/a-c...
kalam.chathamhouse.org
A careful balancing act: Turkey-Iran competition in regional Kurdish geopolitics - Kalam
By virtue of geography and demography, Kurdish populations will always play a role in relations between Turkey and Iran. Both countries are accused of
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
📢 Upcoming webinar | Lebanon's technocratic government one year in Experts discuss the challenges of Israel, Syria, Hezbollah and public demands for reform. 📅 14 January 🕐 14.00 GMT 📍 Zoom Register now ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
chathamhouse.org
Lebanon's technocratic government one year in
Experts discuss the challenges of Israel, Syria, Hezbollah and public demands for reform.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 15/12/2025
'This year will be a test of whether Middle East ceasefires can be a foundation for meaningful diplomacy and sustainable peace agreements,' writes Sanam Vakil in the newest issue of @theworldtoday.org. www.chathamhouse.org/publications...
chathamhouse.org
The world in 2026
Chatham House experts highlight the crunch moments and potential flashpoints in the year ahead.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 08/12/2025
'People are celebrating the 1st year of a free Syria from the Assad regime... that doesn't change the fact that many are struggling financially. Many are asking whether next year will be better than the year before,' says @haidhaid22.bsky.social via Al Jazeera. www.aljazeera.com/video/inside...
aljazeera.com
Syria: One year after al-Assad
What kind of Syria is the new government trying to build? And what challenges is it facing?
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 04/12/2025
Iraq’s Shia majority in Baghdad and the southern provinces... is finding new avenues for activism, with religious actors adopting a new and influential role in Iraq’s protest politics,' writes Benedict Robin-D'Cruz in a new #IraqInitiative article for Kalam. kalam.chathamhouse.org/articles/wil...
kalam.chathamhouse.org
Will clerics lead Iraq’s next protest movement? - Kalam
The results of Iraq’s 2025 national elections have crystallised several long-term trends. The withering of ideological politics has
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
📢 Upcoming webinar: One year of Syria’s transition: Progress, challenges and prospects Join Rime Allaf, Haid Haid and Raya Jalabi for a virtual discussion ahead of the 1 year anniversary of the Assad regime's fall. 📅 2 Dec 🕐 15.00 GMT 📍 Zoom www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
chathamhouse.org
One year of Syria’s transition: Progress, challenges and prospects
Experts discuss achievements, challenges, and questions facing Syria’s transitional government one year since the fall of the Assad regime.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 19/11/2025
📢 Upcoming event: Iraq’s 2025 Elections – What comes next? Experts and policymakers explore the political, governance and societal implications of #Iraq’s 2025 electoral outcomes in this #IraqInitiative webinar. 📅 26 Nov 🕐 13.00 GMT 📍 Zoom www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
chathamhouse.org
Iraq’s 2025 Elections: What comes next?
Experts and policymakers explores the political, governance and societal implications of Iraq’s 2025 electoral outcomes.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 10/11/2025
Tomorrow, Iraqis head to the polls in a pivotal election that could test Iraq's stability. Which bloc is the frontrunner in the race? How might the balance of power shift – and what’s at stake for reform and Iraq’s regional position? Read the latest #IraqInitiative analysis ↓
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Reposted by Chatham House Middle East and North Africa
Chietigjb @chietigj.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
Last week I hosted a @chathamhouse.org webinar discussing the #Pakistan-#Saudi defence pact with Talmiz Ahmad (former Indian Ambassador to Saudi Arabia), Farzana Shaikh from the @chasiapacific.bsky.social and Bilal Saab from @chmenap.bsky.social. Watch it here: www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...
chathamhouse.org
Saudi-Pakistan defence pact: What are the implications for regional power and security?
How the new Saudi–Pakistan defence pact could reshape power dynamics across the Middle East and South Asia.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 06/11/2025
📢 Upcoming event: A foreign policy for the new Syria Asaad al-Shaibani, Foreign Minister of Syria, speaks at Chatham House to describe the hopes and ambition for a new Syria’s role in the region and world. 📅 12 Nov 🕐 12.30 GMT 📍 @ChathamHouse & Zoom www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/o...
chathamhouse.org
A foreign policy for the new Syria
Asaad al-Shaibani, foreign minister of Syria, speaks at Chatham House to describe the hopes and ambition for a new Syria’s role in the region and world.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 28/10/2025
A stream of American senior officials to Israel indicates that the White House is keen to ensure that ceasefire violations do not derail Trump’s so-called peace plan, writes Yossi Mekelberg. Read the new Expert Comment ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/2025/10/isra...
chathamhouse.org
Israel-Hamas: A fragile ceasefire tested from the word go
A stream of American senior officials to Israel indicates that the White House is keen to ensure that ceasefire violations do not derail Trump’s so-called peace plan.
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Chatham House Middle East and North Africa @chmenap.bsky.social · 24/10/2025
🚨 Upcoming webinar: What's next for Gaza? A panel of experts discuss reconstruction, governance, security and the future of Palestinian statehood. 📅 30 October ⏰ 14.00 GMT 📍 Zoom Register now ⤵️ www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/r...
chathamhouse.org
What's next for Gaza?
A panel of experts discuss reconstruction, governance, security and the future of Palestinian statehood.
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