Sign in

Jonathan Tonkin

@jdtonkin.bsky.social
5.4K followers 1.8K following 1K posts

Professor of ecology at UCNZ | Using science to anticipate where our living world is headed | Writing Predirections newsletter on biodiversity, climate & water → predirections.substack.com | tonkinlab.org

PostsRepliesMedia
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/10/2026
Definitely
000
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
I was reminded of this while watching a red-billed gull on a recent trip to Kaikōura. This is a bird many of us barely notice — even treat as a nuisance — but it’s one whose populations are in trouble.
030
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/10/2026
The things we take for granted are often the things we risk losing. Paying attention can reveal both the beauty in the ordinary and what we stand to lose.
predirections.substack.com
Finding interest in the ordinary
On the familiar things we overlook, and what happens when we look closer.
171
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 06/10/2026
Absolutely! That programme started a lot of interest in this space.
000
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
“Rather than treating rivers as systems that must be tightly controlled or returned to a fixed historical state, the research highlights the need to anticipate change, manage adaptively, and work with natural river processes to improve both flood resilience and ecosystem health.”
041
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Nice to see a little feature for part of our research programme on the University of Canterbury website. www.canterbury.ac.nz/research/sho...
canterbury.ac.nz
Giving rivers room to move | UC
UC researchers are highlighting new approaches to river management to recognise rivers as dynamic and biologically diverse ecosystems.
220
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
Happy to be presenting at this next week hosted by The Western Australian Biodiversity Science Institute. Big Issues in Biodiversity Science: WABSI Webinar Series Floods, droughts and heatwaves are reshaping our rivers faster than ever. Details/Register: events.teams.microsoft.com/event/3cbc4a...
010
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 05/10/2026
I hope the fruit tastes as good as the flowers look
020
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
The future doesn’t give the present back What if the things we're trying to create for the future are also things we can choose to value and experience now? We spend so much time waiting for the next version of our lives that we forget we're already living the part we'll one day miss. New post 👇
predirections.substack.com
The future doesn’t give the present back
What if the things we're trying to create for the future are also things we can choose to value and experience now?
010
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 30/09/2026
GOOD NEWS: Jeff Bezos is committing 1/20th of the price of his superyacht to protect the Pacific Ocean. 🤦‍♂️
020
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
A well-written paper should let you skim just the first sentence of every paragraph and reconstruct most of its argument. Here's what that looks like in practice: Full post on how a 5-pass framework for reading scientific papers: predirections.substack.com/p/how-i-read...
0102
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 26/09/2026
Absolutely. My 1st pass means you can do w/o accessing paper behind paywall. But otherwise agree figures v helpful in initial passes.
010
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Most scientists don't read papers front to back. After twenty years and thousands of papers, here's the system I use to get the gist of any paper in 20 minutes or less.
predirections.substack.com
How I read a scientific paper in 20 minutes
A five-pass system for deciding what deserves deeper attention
1194
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
Most scientists don't read papers front to back. After twenty years and thousands of papers, here's the system I use to get the gist of any paper in 20 minutes or less.
predirections.substack.com
How I read a scientific paper in 20 minutes
A five-pass system for deciding what deserves deeper attention
1194
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
5. Response diversity — more than one way to respond when things change 6. Slack — deliberately leaving capacity unused 7. Future options — don't optimise for one future From Friday's piece, "Keeping different paths alive". predirections.substack.com/p/keeping-di...
predirections.substack.com
Keeping different paths alive
Resilience comes from keeping options open, not predicting the future. And 7 forms of resilience I want my kids to have.
041
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
The 7 forms of resilience (from ecology, applied to parenting): 1. Spatial diversity — more than one place to belong 2. Network diversity — more than one person to rely on 3. Resource diversity — more than one way to meet basic needs 4. Functional redundancy — more than one way to solve a problem
121
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
Resilience doesn't come from optimising everything for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can't predict.
142
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I can’t predict the environment my kids will inherit. None of us can. But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
1134
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
The more I think about it, the more I want it for my kids too. This week's post dives into 7 different ways of thinking about resilience that I want to bring to parenting in an uncertain world.
predirections.substack.com
Keeping different paths alive
Resilience comes from keeping options open, not predicting the future. And 7 forms of resilience I want my kids to have.
040
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
I can’t predict the environment my kids will inherit. None of us can. But ecology has taught me a lot about living in an unpredictable world. For one: resilience doesn’t come from optimising for the conditions you expect. It comes from keeping different paths alive for futures you can’t predict.
1134
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
No trouble! Thanks for sharing it.
010
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Garry Peterson @resiliencesci.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
New website for IPBES Nature Futures Framework www.naturefuturesframework.org "A flexible tool designed to support the development of scenarios and models of desirable futures for people, nature and Mother Earth"
naturefuturesframework.org
Nature Futures Framework - Stockholm Resilience Centre
Advances the understanding of complex social-ecological systems with new insights into ecosystem management practices and long-term sustainability
11412
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
And the wider you read, the more ideas you have to pull from and merge with new things. Or use as analogies.
120
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Great thread! I think the Fry example highlights the importance of reading widely to generate or ‘spot’ good ideas. To me, very little is truly new. Most is repackaging of old ideas in new ways — evolution. Novel ideas are often just taking two distinct things and bringing them together.
120
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Clear-cut forestry is just not a good strategy. It’s another example of taking gains now and overlooking the costs for the future. Recovery is slow. And we just don’t have the time for slow recovery right now. www.nature.com/articles/s41...
02110
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed. If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning. Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's. New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
predirections.substack.com
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
0259
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
These issues must be addressed urgently, in the mathematical community, by the companies developing these technologies and, more broadly, by a society that will confront similar problems in many other forms of intellectual work.”
010
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
have a destructive effect will in large part be determined by the decisions of the humans in control of this new technology...
110
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I’ll leave you with their final warning: “AI offers the potential of enhancing and accelerating genuine mathematical study and understanding. Mathematics as a profession will need to adapt to these changes in several ways. However, whether these changes ultimately benefit the field or...
110
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
...which would then be studied by a community of mathematicians, through a long and arduous process of talks, discussions, simplifications.”
110
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
As they note: “Famous problems have often served as landmarks and lighthouses against which one can measure an improved understanding of this landscape. Solving one of these problems has been a certain sign of new insights and interesting methods, ...
120
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
It’s a stark warning about AI as a whole, not just for math. Solving a problem doesn’t reflect advancements in conceptual understanding and insight—the goal of any field. Throwing machines at problems bypasses the true advancements that emerge from scientific communities grappling w/ ideas together.
120
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
If you were also uneasy about the news of a swarm of agents solving the Navier-Stokes problem, it’s worth giving this piece a read.
mathandai.org
Declaration — Math and AI
Read the declaration and add your name.
141
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Absolutely, Joachim!
000
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Joachim Mergeay @jmergeay.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
Extinction debt makes policy action even slower to respond to biodiversity threats. The silver lining is that tools exist to detect it at various levels (genetic debt within populations, species richness debt) meaning we can reverse trends before costs to act are huge.
164
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 11/09/2026
A species can be common in an ecosystem and still be doomed. If it can no longer reproduce, e.g. due to degradation or climate change, it's likely already facing extinctioning. Sometimes ecosystems reflect land-use decisions from 50y ago as much as today's. New piece on ghosts, debts, and credits.
predirections.substack.com
Ghosts, debts, and credits
The hidden lags between what we do and what it costs
0259
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 10/09/2026
Reservoirs on the Colorado River have dropped to their lowest levels since they were built. Let that sink in for a second before you scroll past it.
123
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises. But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways. They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms. What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
predirections.substack.com
Rivers run on insurance. This summer tested it.
The current heatwave and drought are doing more than drying up the Rhine and Danube. They may also be undermining their resilience to future events. The good news is that insurance can be rebuilt.
01510
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 04/09/2026
Europe's rivers have hit record lows. Headlines cover shipping delays and energy crises. But rivers are ecosystems, not just waterways. They recover because they contain their own form of insurance: refuges and diversity in all forms. What happens when events are big enough that the insurance fails?
predirections.substack.com
Rivers run on insurance. This summer tested it.
The current heatwave and drought are doing more than drying up the Rhine and Danube. They may also be undermining their resilience to future events. The good news is that insurance can be rebuilt.
01510
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 03/09/2026
I recall talking with my uni friends about the ecosystems we wanted to visit before it was too late—our bucket list of endangered ecosystems. Top of my list was the Great Barrier Reef. predirections.substack.com/p/the-great-...
171
Reposted by Jonathan Tonkin
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this. For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late. In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
predirections.substack.com
The Great Barrier Reef’s breaking point
Could this year’s Super El Niño be the one it can’t recover from?
293
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I normally try to make sure my posts are balanced with good news too but the GBR story is very concerning. Had to share it.
110
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 28/08/2026
I wish I didn't have to write a post like this. For over 20y, the Great Barrier Reef sat at the top of my bucket list of ecosystems I wanted to see before it was too late. In 2023, I got my chance. Now, with this year’s El Niño bearing down, I’m wondering how many more shocks it can absorb.
predirections.substack.com
The Great Barrier Reef’s breaking point
Could this year’s Super El Niño be the one it can’t recover from?
293
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Those sorts of challenges are what make it so fascinating! The questions are endless.
000
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
Predirections is where I try to close that gap — free writing on how nature handles risk, how nature is at risk, and what we can learn from both. predirections.substack.com
predirections.substack.com
Predirections | Jonathan Tonkin | Substack
Weekly future-focused writing on biodiversity, climate, and water for a changing world — by Prof. Jonathan Tonkin. Click to read Predirections, by Jonathan Tonkin, a Substack publication with tens of ...
161
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
One thing keeps me up at night: how mismatched we are with nature's rhythms. We plan in weeks, quarters, election cycles. Nature runs on decades, centuries, longer.
1121
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
I've spent my career studying rivers and biodiversity — work that's shaped how I think about time, risk, and long-term decision-making well beyond ecology itself.
260
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 23/08/2026
Nature handles time and risk very differently to how we do. This mismatch matters more than we tend to think. Here’s a roundup of ten pieces on why. predirections.substack.com/p/ten-pieces...
010
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
Angus McIntosh and Helen Warburton have 4 PhD scholarships in freshwater ecology available at University of Canterbury, NZ. Invasive aquatic plants in high-country springs, and native fish, springs, and birds in braided rivers
0613
Jonathan Tonkin @jdtonkin.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
Déjà vu? This paper of ours in 2019 could be describing what’s happening across Europe right now. (See the highlighted text.) www.nature.com/articles/d41...
079