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Jason Weeden

@jasonweeden.bsky.social
60 followers 117 following 47 posts

Psychologist interested in modern sex/fertility patterns (how they reflect trade-offs, how they relate to religiosity, etc.); demographics of party identification and voting.

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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
I review some recent shifts in women’s sex/fertility patterns, and speculate on explanations. chartyarps.substack.com/p/the-rise-o...
chartyarps.substack.com
The Rise of the Disengaged
The new low-fertility, secular, sober, queer virgins are distinct from familiar Freewheelers
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 21/08/2026
I try to improve on NSFG numbers by adding results from Monitoring the Future and the American Family Survey. chartyarps.substack.com/p/how-many-y...
chartyarps.substack.com
How many young women want to have kids someday?
The number has fallen over the past decade from ~87% to ~74%
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
🔥
allthefeelsbook.com
The Taxonomy of Feels — All the Feels
All 74 Feels, organized like a biological taxonomy — into five Kingdoms, eleven Phyla, and individual Feels. The fifth is Monera: the dessert course of oddballs and mysteries.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 17/08/2026
I wanted to think more clearly about how delays in childbearing result in lower total fertility rates, so I built a simple model and wrote this. chartyarps.substack.com/p/are-they-h...
chartyarps.substack.com
Are they having fewer kids or just waiting longer to have them?
How total fertility rates reflect both declines and delays in childbirth
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 15/08/2026
Time sleeping is up and social time is down, gender gaps are narrowing, and reading is losing to TV while TV is losing to games/computers. chartyarps.substack.com/p/three-big-...
chartyarps.substack.com
Three big changes in how much time we spend doing ordinary things
Shifts in Americans’ time-use patterns from 2003 to 2025
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 01/06/2026
I use data from the World Values Survey to look at the connection between religiosity and sexual/reproductive morals both between and within countries. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
An international look at religion as Ring-Bearer support
Why I keep saying that this stuff is mainly about the modern U.S. and similar countries
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Rob Sica @robsica.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
🔪"LLMs are merely lucid storytellers, inventing explanations on demand... The human mind is no different... Introspection, then, is an illusion... we have no inner life (beyond the flow of conscious experience) to probe" archive.ph/FyrF4
iai.tv
Introspection is an illusion created by the brain
<p><em>For millennia, we have assumed that self-knowledge begins with looking inward. But psychologist <strong>Nick Chater</strong> argues that this is impossible: the mind does not store beliefs and ...
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 13/05/2026
Here's my attempt to convince @lfitouchi.bsky.social, @jbaptistandre.bsky.social, Nicolas Baumard, et al. that the self-control and cooperation-centered account neglects the core of conflicting sexual/reproductive strategies and modern religiosity: open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
What are the core real-life differences between religious and nonreligious people?
And what do those differences mean for recent evolutionary theories of morality and religion?
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
I look at the big drop in young adult religiosity and how it relates to their lifestyles, how various moral domains relate to religiosity, and what this implies for recent evolutionary discussions (including recent perspectives from Fitouchi, Andre, and Baumard). open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
What are the core real-life differences between religious and nonreligious people?
And what do those differences mean for recent evolutionary theories of morality and religion?
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 02/04/2026
I use NSGF data on women’s first marriages to investigate predictors of whether the relationships are still intact down the road. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
How long will her first marriage last?
Big predictors from NSFG data: husband’s education and her premarital sex/children
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SocArXivBot @socarxivbot.bsky.social · 23/01/2026
Reconciling the Sex Recession Debate: Detection, Measurement, and Mechanism: osf.io/jcdbm
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 18/10/2025
A big-picture look at large-scale fertility patterns across U.S. cohorts, current trends, and drivers of individual differences. chartyarps.substack.com/p/the-basics...
chartyarps.substack.com
The Basics of U.S. Fertility
A big-picture look at large-scale patterns across cohorts, current trends, and drivers of individual differences.
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Evolutionary Psychology (the podcast) @epthepod.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
This week we talk to Dan Williams about belief. Is it veridical or social or both or neither? youtu.be/vBzPtPNbcz8 www.podbean.com/ew/pb-ehzhx-... podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/b...
youtu.be
Belief with Dan Williams
YouTube video by Evolutionary Psychology (The Podcast)
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
I look at how recent trends in fertility relate to shifts in education and marriage at different ages. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Recent U.S. Fertility Trends
Age, education, marriage, and childbearing in the 21st century
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Jay Van Bavel, PhD @jayvanbavel.bsky.social · 08/09/2025
Extreme views are heavily over-represented on social media Social platforms’ tendency to reward hostile content creates incentives that systematically reward simplistic messages and extreme positions and this fuels populism www.ft.com/content/9251... via @jburnmurdoch.ft.com
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 29/08/2025
I don't know who produced this or what model they used, but this is an unsettlingly good AI summary of my book. It's not perfect, but it's hard to imagine that many human undergrads could do a better job. www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DBu...
youtube.com
The Hidden Agenda Of The Political Mind - Jason Weeden, Robert Kurzban | Book Summary
YouTube video by Bamboo Books – Concise Summaries
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Brian Schaffner @bfschaffner.bsky.social · 19/08/2025
🚨🚨🚨 The Cooperative Election Study's 2024 vote validation data is now available! Microdata: doi.org/10.7910/DVN/... Or easy interactive analysis of the data on... vote choice: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/VoteTrends/ demographics of voters: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/votercomp/
doi.org
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 13/08/2025
Thoughts on why some claim God’s authority while others deny the existence of Big Gods. chartyarps.substack.com/p/some-strat...
chartyarps.substack.com
Some strategic functions of religious belief and unbelief
A quick sketch of a cynical take
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 26/07/2025
An estimate of both levels and distributions of surviving offspring over time. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Offspring Surviving to Adulthood in the U.S. since the 1800s
An estimate of both levels and distributions of surviving offspring over time.
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Pew Research Center @pewresearch.org · 25/07/2025
Do you use our NPORS survey to weigh your data? Our 2025 numbers are out now. www.pewresearch.org/...
pewresearch.org
National Public Opinion Reference Survey (NPORS)
NPORS is an annual survey of U.S. adults conducted by the Pew Research Center used to to produce benchmark estimates for several topics.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
A look at both levels and distributions of fertility over time. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
U.S. Fertility Since the 1800s
A look at both levels and distributions of childbearing over time.
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Human Behavior & Evolution Society @humbehevosoc.bsky.social · 30/06/2025
Nicolas Baumard & Jean-Baptiste Andre’s “ecological view of culture” provides an exciting new perspective that links Behavioral Ecology, Evolutionary Psychology, & Cultural Evolution. Read more in their HBES blog post: www.hbes.com/reconciling-...
hbes.com
Reconciling Our Three Traditions: Human Behavioral Ecology, Evolutionary Psychology, and Cultural Evolution - HBES
– by Nicolas Baumard & Jean-Baptiste André The evolutionary social sciences are grounded in the idea that evolutionary theory provides a unified framework to explain human behavior, including social n...
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 17/06/2025
I discuss the most impactful frequently measured demographics driving the 2024 presidential electorate. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Real-Life Differences between Harris and Trump Voters
A look at some of the features that drove the 2024 U.S. coalitions
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 10/05/2025
AP VoteCast, Cooperative Election Studies, and Edison exit polls each has a dramatically different take on what happened with young White men in 2024. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Age, race, and gender in the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections
I combine the major available surveys (AP VoteCast, CES, Edison exit polls, and ANES)
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 30/04/2025
I combined the 2024 AP VoteCast and Cooperative Election Study samples to look at the role of various demographic gaps. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
The Demographics of the Two-Party Vote in 2024
Age, gender, race, education, income, religion, sexual orientation, guns, and urban/rural
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British Journal of Political Science @bjpols.bsky.social · 21/04/2025
NEW - Does Reason-Giving Affect Political Attitudes? - cup.org/4lMuN1x "I find that reason-giving has very limited effects on the constraint, stability, or polarization of the public’s political attitudes" - Jack Blumenau #OpenAccess
BJPolS abstract discussing the effects of reason-giving on voter attitudes in UK politics, examining public preferences and the implications for democratic processes.
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Kirsten Lesage @kirstenlesage.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Excited to share a new Pew Research Center report I led on "religious switching" in 36 countries around the world! pewrsr.ch/4hK1ucL A few key takeaways below! 👇 1/n
pewrsr.ch
Around the World, Many People Are Leaving Their Childhood Religions
In many places surveyed, 20% or more of all adults have left their childhood religious group. Christianity and Buddhism have had especially large losses. Pew Research Center.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 14/03/2025
Here's my attempt to fit CES/ANES/GSS data regarding turnout patterns onto the known popular vote in recent presidential elections. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
The complex changes in turnout from election to election
Modelling the big picture of how voters have shifted in recent presidential elections
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 26/02/2025
NEW: The third-ever Religious Landscape Study, the single largest survey done by Pew Research Center (n=36,908) Survey provides detailed information about the religious composition of the United States at the national, state and metro level. Dive in:
pewresearch.org
Decline of Christianity in the U.S. Has Slowed, May Have Leveled Off
After years of decline, the U.S. Christian share now shows signs of leveling off. The new Religious Landscape Study explores trends in identity, beliefs and practices. Pew Research Center.
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Michael Bang Petersen @m-b-petersen.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
Our research on Need for Chaos was focused on how some voters wanted to watch the world burn: www.cambridge.org/core/journal... With DOGE it now seems to be official government strategy from Trump & Musk But the goal seems the same: Burning down existing structures for selfish status gain
cambridge.org
The “Need for Chaos” and Motivations to Share Hostile Political Rumors | American Political Science Review | Cambridge Core
The “Need for Chaos” and Motivations to Share Hostile Political Rumors - Volume 117 Issue 4
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 25/02/2025
The highest-impact demographic splits in the 2024 ANES pre-election data: race, religion, sexual orientation, education, guns, and church. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
The highest-impact demographic splits in the 2024 ANES pre-election data
Race, religion, sexual orientation, education, guns, and church
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Drew Engelhardt @amengel.bsky.social · 12/02/2025
Every time I see this I wonder why most all the writing I see is on the unique politics and circumstance of young men and not on what's going on for young women. The variation is so much more interesting to explain!
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
Taking a look at the new ANES data. chartyarps.substack.com/p/a-prelimin...
chartyarps.substack.com
A preliminary look at preliminary 2024 ANES pre-election data
It’s all very preliminary.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 13/02/2025
Splitting the 2020 presidential electorate into 81 demographic groups, and putting them on a single chart. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Splitting the 2020 presidential electorate into 81 demographic groups
And putting them on a single chart.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 31/01/2025
In getting ready to digest new data on the 2024 election, I take a look at the major ways in which the demographics of presidential voting have changed since the mid-20th century. chartyarps.substack.com/p/75-years-o...
chartyarps.substack.com
75 Years of Shifting Party Coalitions
Subtle realignments and demographic change
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 11/01/2025
In this one, I look at how info at age 21 predicts number of children at age 39 for typical college-educated women in the NYLSY97 sample. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
How many kids will college women likely end up having?
Impacts of religiosity, sociosexuality, and race.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 25/12/2024
Some early thoughts on integrating lessons from neural networks into evolutionary psychology. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Strategic flexibility with evolved goals-and-hints
Some early thoughts on integrating lessons from neural networks into evolutionary psychology
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PRRI @prri.org · 18/12/2024
According to the 2023 PRRI Census of American Religion, while majorities of both major political parties identify as Christian, seven in ten Republicans (70%) identify as white and Christian, compared with just 24% of Democrats. Learn more: www.prri.org/research/cen...
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 17/12/2024
An explosion in non-hetero orientations. Women reporting less church attendance and more sex partners than men. A stunning decline in wanting to have children. If the new NSFG data pan out, there's some really funky stuff going on with the kids. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Recent patterns among young people in religion, sex, and fertility
If new data are to be believed, I don’t know that anyone really understands the depth and rapidity of the unprecedented shifts unfolding in Gen Z.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 14/12/2024
Another look at the contrast in religiosity between sociosexually restricted and high fertility vs. unrestricted and low-fertility patterns -- with recently updated NSFG data. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
How religiosity relates to sexual and reproductive patterns in the National Survey of Family Growth
Religious congregants are primarily those who abstain from nonmarital sex and partying in favor of stable marriages and larger families.
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 09/12/2024
By their early 20s, Millennials were attending religious services only about half as frequently as their parents. In thinking about individual differences in adult religiosity, citing parental inheritance isn’t enough. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
The two main sources of individual differences in religious service attendance
One is parental attendance, but there’s another that matters at least as much.
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David M. Perry @lollardfish.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
states rights unless its parents rights unless the parents are wrong in which case its states rights unless the state is wrong in which case its federal rights unless the feds are democrats in which case its parents rights unless the parents are wrong in which case
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John Gramlich @johngramlich.bsky.social · 04/12/2024
% of Republican voters who say the recent election was run very or somewhat well November 2020: 21% November 2024: 93% www.pewresearch.org/politics/202...
Bar chart showing a more than fourfold increase in the share of Republican voters who say the recent election was run very or somewhat well. 93% of GOP voters say this about the November 2024 election, up from just 21% who said this about the November 2020 election.
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Michael Bang Petersen @m-b-petersen.bsky.social · 05/12/2024
In debates about misinformation, an argument from one side (me including) has been that misinformed beliefs may often serve purely symbolic functions. A new paper now shows that such purely symbolic beliefs do indeed exist: osf.io/preprints/ps... Hattip to @stefanschubert.bsky.social
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 21/11/2024
Which Gen Zers are more and less likely to identify and be actively involved with a religion? open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Gen Z Religiosity by Gender, Race, and Sexual Orientation
Which Gen Zers are more and less likely to identify and be actively involved with a religion?
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 18/11/2024
Young women have become less religious than young men, and it's in part driven by changes in sexual patterns. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
The new religious gender gap and sexual orientation
What's driving young women’s recent outsized decline in religiosity?
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 14/11/2024
A look at how demographic groups have changed issue positions to reach our current liberal-conservative alignment. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
How views on abortion and income redistribution became ideologically aligned
Just 40 years ago, being liberal on abortion actually predicted being conservative on economics (and vice versa).
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
My initial look at the exit polls open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
A Very Quick Comparison of 2024 and 2020 Exit Polls
What they suggest about the shifting party coalitions
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 29/10/2024
I take a shot at forming a single yes/no question that best predicts party votes while (1) only referencing basic demographic info and (2) being no more than 50 words. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
What's the Gappiest Gap in Current U.S. Politics?
My nominee for the biggest, cleanest single split in basic voter demographics
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Jason Weeden @jasonweeden.bsky.social · 28/10/2024
In the mid-20th century, the least educated White men tended to favor Democrats and the most educated White women tended to favor Republicans. How times have changed. open.substack.com/pub/chartyar...
open.substack.com
Gender and education gaps in presidential voting over the past several decades
How the parties flipped places
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