iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

▪️ Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries, industrial sites and logistics hubs are directly hitting Moscow’s war machine. Crucially, these attacks undermine Putin’s long-standing social contract: promising domestic stability and shielding the public from the harsh realities of war. 🔚

020 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

▪️With the elections concluded, a large-scale mobilisation wave becomes more likely, though covert recruitment (and possibly the deployment of North Korean troops) will remain the primary mechanisms to avoid popular backlash.

110 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

▪️While domestic frustration grows over rising inflation, security vulnerabilities, state repressions, and mounting casualties, any discontent with the consequences of the war does not translate into a moral rejection of the war.

120 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

▪️Staging these ‘elections’ in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories at gunpoint serves to deepen their administrative and legal integration into the Russian system and to deny their possible return to Ukraine as part of future negotiations.

110 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

▪️Because every state-sanctioned ‘opposition party’ endorsed the regime’s pro-war stance, Moscow can claim that international sanctions and diplomatic isolation have failed to fracture the Russian political elite.

110 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

▪️The Kremlin will use the orchestrated electoral outcomes to project an image of absolute national unity, reinforcing President Putin’s core message that the country stands firmly behind a prolonged war in Ukraine.

110 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/09/2026

Yesterday I spoke with @deutschewelle.dw.com on how the Kremlin will leverage the electoral results to sustain its aggression against Ukraine. Key points ⬇️ www.youtube.com/watch?v=4uWg...

120 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 18/09/2026

My comments for Fox News on the brutal and illegal means used by Russia to hold “elections” in the occupied territories. "It’s a total regime of terror," Jaroslava Barbieri, research fellow at the Ukraine Forum at Chatham House, told Fox News Digital ⬇️ www.foxnews.com/world/voters...

010 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 25/08/2026

My comments for @politico.eu on Ukraine’s expansion of its long-range drone strikes inside Russia. www.politico.eu/article/ukra...

000 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▫️Millions of Ukrainians remain internally displaced or refugees abroad, while large swathes of territory remain under Russian occupation, crippling electoral integrity. Watch our recent discussion @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social on these key challenges for Ukraine’s democracy in wartime 10/👇

130 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▫️Conducting safe voting processes while under constant bombardment poses extreme risks to civilian lives. ▫️Millions of active-duty soldiers on the front lines would be unable to fairly run as candidates or safely cast their ballots. 9/

040 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▫️Opening the political arena during a period of extreme social vulnerability risks fueling populist polarization, which Russia would actively weaponize to fracture national unity and destabilize society from within. 8/

150 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▫️Martial law restrictions make equal access to information nearly impossible. Opposition parties and new political movements lack equal platform visibility, balanced media access, and the financial resources required to mount a fair campaign. 7/

120 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

The primary reasons why wartime elections remain nearly impossible to execute: ▫️Ukrainian law explicitly bans elections under martial law to ensure stability during wartime. 6/

130 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

This is an exceptionally risky move on Fedorov’s part. Recent data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology shows that a majority of Ukrainians still do not believe elections should take place right now, claiming they should be postponed until after the war ends. 5/

151 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▪️Hope reflects the belief that 🇺🇦 can win and thrive as a nation if accountable leaders produce results and report to society. While Fedorov’s focus on asymmetric warfare gave people hope that Ukraine could turn the tide and bring the war to an end, that optimism has faded. 4/

120 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▪️Justice amplifies the sense of injustice in 🇺🇦 On one side are soldiers who cannot return home, alongside civilians suffering daily; on the other are officials accused of corruption for whom a prolonged war provides self-enrichment opportunities that undermine the war effort 3/

120 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

▪️Responsibility is the political equivalent of his signature data-driven approach to war. Leaders must deliver tangible, measurable results. Without elections, a culture of impunity consolidates. Officials stop fearing accountability when they cannot be voted out. 2/

130 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

In a bold political statement, Ukraine’s former Defence Mykhailo Fedorov - whose recent dismissal sparked protests across the country - announced the need of wartime elections. A thread 🧵 His statement centres around three key concepts: responsibility, justice, and hope. 1/

442 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

In a recently released video, former Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov has called for wartime elections in Ukraine. What are the challenges of returning to electoral processes after 6-year gap & amid the war? 👉 Watch our recent webinar on this topic www.chathamhouse.org/events/all/s...

031 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 12/08/2026

“If a ceasefire is finally agreed, it will create new questions: about Ukraine’s security, Russia’s ambitions, and Europe’s long-term stability – made more urgent by uncertainty over US commitment to European security.” Do join us for what promises to be a rich and challenging discussion!👇

041 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Moscow’s maximalist goals have not changed. A diplomatic breakthrough before winter is unlikely. Russia will seek to exploit 🇺🇦’s air defence gaps. Despite bracing for a prolonged conflict, Ukrainians remain optimistic about the future & will reject any peace that invalidates their huge sacrifices. 🔚

000 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

🇺🇸🇺🇦 relations are more cordial, transactional. Washington maintains intelligence sharing and enables Europeans to buy US weapons via PURL, but Trump’s refusal to grant 🇺🇦 a Patriot license or release emergency stockpiles underscores how US inventories have been severely depleted by the Iran war. 4/

100 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

While Kyiv has neutralized Russia’s Black Sea dominance and pushed monthly Russian casualties past recruitment rates, Ukraine will struggle to maintain its strategic momentum due to acute manpower deficits and its recent military leadership reshuffle. 3/

110 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

Ukraine is ramping up long-range strikes on Russian oil refineries, strategic airfields and Wildberries warehouses to drain the Kremlin’s revenue, disrupt Moscow’s supply lines at source and bring the war home to ordinary Russians. 2/

100 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

The war has entered a new phase. Russia is stepping up ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine’s civilian and energy infrastructure while escalating hybrid operations across Europe to test Western unity. 1/

100 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 11/08/2026

This morning, I spoke with @Bloomberg on the shifting dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war and Kyiv’s evolving relationship with Washington. My conversation with Francine Lacqua at 34:25-42:20 youtu.be/gKmniZ_OOek?... Key points 👇

120 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 10/08/2026

My comments for this BBC investigation which details how Russian occupational authorities are systematically expropriating real estate belonging to displaced Ukrainians across occupied regions as part of a broader strategy of demographic engineering 👇 www.bbc.co.uk/news/resourc...

022 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 01/08/2026

🎙️In the latest episode of the Independent Thinking Podcast John Lough is joined by Vadym Prystaiko, @ldfreedman.bsky.social & @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social to discuss what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s reshuffle means for Ukraine’s war strategy. 🎧Listen here: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/07/if-u...

chathamhouse.org

If Ukraine is winning the war, why did Zelenskyy fire his defence minister?

In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss what President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s reshuffle means for Ukraine’s war strategy.

011 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 03/08/2026

I spoke @telegraph.co.uk on Mykhailo Fedorov’s attempted reforms designed to increase army recruitment & motivation by: raising infantry pay, facilitating the return of AWOL personnel, introducing fixed-term contract terms and temporary discharge, and enabling the recruitment of foreign volunteers👇

110 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

🎧 Listen to the complete episode on your favourite platform: youtu.be/QzfZepRv1og?... open.spotify.com/episode/6B2Q... podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/i...

youtu.be

Why did Zelenskyy fire his defence minister? 🎙️ Independent Thinking podcast

YouTube video by Chatham House

010 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 31/07/2026

🎙️ I joined @chathamhouse.org podcast with Sir @ldfreedman.bsky.social , Ambassador Vadym Prystaiko, John Lough. We discussed President Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington, his dismissal of Defence Minister Fedorov, 🇺🇦’s ability to retain initiative, and how to pressure Russia to the negotiating table👇

191 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

My quick take for @newsweek.com on President Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington: www.newsweek.com/zelensky-maj...

031 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 28/07/2026

✍️ Ukraine needs help against Russian missiles now. What more can allies do? 🖇️Read the new expert comment by our Associate Fellow Marc R. DeVore here: www.chathamhouse.org/2026/07/ukra...

chathamhouse.org

Ukraine needs help against Russian missiles now. What more can allies do?

Recent air defence pledges won’t deliver interceptors for years. Europe could help now by providing fighter cover, or by delivering more offensive weapons. Will it act?

041 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Mark MacKinnon @markmackinnon.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

After Ukraine struck an Iranian ship, and Tehran reportedly considered retaliating with a ballistic missile, I’m thinking today about this quote from @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl...

02913 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 29/07/2026

I spoke @lemonde.fr about President Zelenskyy’s White House visit, focused on renewing diplomatic efforts and securing licensing for Ukraine’s domestic production of Patriot interceptors, as well as the implications of Ukraine’s recent strike on an Iranian vessel in the Caspian Sea👇

121 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 24/07/2026

My comments for @theipaper.com about the impact of Ukraine’s strikes on Wildberries warehouses - Russia’s largest online retailer. inews.co.uk/news/world/a...

031 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 23/07/2026

My comments for @channel4news.bsky.social on how President Zelenskyy’s decision to dismiss popular and highly effective defence minister Mykhailo Fedorov will likely damage him politically. From 2:10: youtu.be/4AhN-Bs8GYo?...

youtu.be

Ukraine launches Wildberries attacks in blow to Russia economy

YouTube video by Channel 4 News

032 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

✍️How the dismissal of Ukraine’s popular defence minister backfired for Zelenskyy Sidelining capable and popular officials has become a distinct pattern of Zelenskyy’s leadership style, but this time it backfired, writes @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social. 🔗 www.chathamhouse.org/2026/07/how-...

chathamhouse.org

How the dismissal of Ukraine’s popular defence minister backfired for Zelenskyy

The dismissal of Mykhailo Fedorov – the man behind Ukraine’s successful drone campaign against Russia – has sparked protests across Ukraine and turned into a political crisis for Zelenskyy.

041 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 22/07/2026

I analyze @chathamhouse.org Zelenskyy’s decision to dismiss 🇺🇦’s defense minister Fedorov - and why this move backfired, leading to protests across 🇺🇦 If public pressure continues, will Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi’s appointment as the new Commander-in-Chief open a path to bring Fedorov back?👇

150 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Anna Morgan @annamorganua.bsky.social · 23/06/2026

Extremely proud to share the brand new research paper by my @chathamhouse.org Ukraine Forum colleagues - Orysia Lutsevych OBE & @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social, which we are bringing to #URC2026 in Gdansk this week. The paper incorporates results of the 4th wave of our own survey of Ukrainian CSOs👇

031 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

My aim is to convert this research into a book. This work aims to contribute to the ever-growing body of evidence documenting the long-term trajectory of Russia’s crimes in 🇺🇦. This degree belongs equally to the community that sustained me. Thank you all! www.linkedin.com/posts/dr-jar... 2/2

linkedin.com

#phd #russia #occupation #ukraine | Dr Jaroslava Barbieri | 15 comments

I have officially graduated with my #PhD! 🎓 A year after passing my viva, the journey is formally complete. My PhD provides an empirical look at the foundations of #Russia’s #occupation regime in Eas...

141 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 13/07/2026

I am officially a Dr! 🎓 My PhD looks at the foundations of Russia’s occupation regime in 🇺🇦 from 2014-21. It traces how Moscow systematically built parallel de facto governance, financial and security structures, and cultural assimilation programs, well before the full-scale invasion. 1/2

271 0

Reposted by Dr Jaroslava Barbieri

Chatham House Russia and Eurasia Programme @chrussiaeurasia.bsky.social · 13/06/2026

Don't miss this episode of @telegraph.co.uk Ukraine The Latest podcast featuring Orysia Lutsevych, Simon Smith, John Lough and @keirgiles.bsky.social talking about their recent research paper. Listen to the podcast youtube.com/watch?v=vGdJ... Read the report www.chathamhouse.org/2026/05/how-...

0113 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 03/06/2026

With Russia remaining a constant threat and US support looking uncertain, Europe cannot be safe without a strong Ukraine. I look forward to joining this discussion @friendsofeurope.bsky.social Details: www.friendsofeurope.org/events/the-f... Register: friendsofeurope.my.site.com/foe/s/event-...

041 0

Dr Jaroslava Barbieri @jaroslavabarbieri.bsky.social · 13/05/2026

Meanwhile, despite its manpower shortages, Ukraine’s tactical successes are not just reclaiming territory - they help undermine the myth of Russia’s invincibility and strengthen Kyiv’s future negotiating position. www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2...

telegraph.co.uk

You are seeing this page because our security systems have detected some unusual activity on this connection. To regain access to The Telegraph website please try the following:

000 0