Sign in

James Marinero

@jamesmarinero.com
1.9K followers 1.2K following 1.3K posts

Defence tech, Espionage, Nuclear+Energy, Geopolitics commentary. Worked/lived Russia+Middle East+Kazakhstan+more. Conceived the idea of modelling geopolitics using linear algebra, results now live at GVIndex.io. Lives on a boat.

PostsRepliesMedia
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 22h
Why the Aframax Rio attack is really important. 🎁 medium.com/the-dock-on-...
medium.com
Aframax Rio: A Very Important Hit in The Ukraine War
A key Russian export corridor is now under major threat
000
Reposted by James Marinero
Maria Drutska @mariadrutska.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
FAFO: Orban may stand trial over the illegal detention of an Oschadbank convoy and seizure of funds. As suspected at the time, it seems likely Orban personally ordered the illegal action for political reasons. I look forward to seeing that asshole's perp walk after conviction.
627752
Reposted by James Marinero
Michael J. Stern @michaeljstern.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
401562516
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 02/10/2026
Carney announced a new million-barrel pipe to the Pacific. A 10% US energy tariff has been on the books since March 2025; USMCA-qualified barrels can still clear. Canadian barrels are the heavy feedstock US refineries are tuned to. First new oil flow planned for 2032. gvindex.io/tariffs-are-...
gvindex.io
EU China trade diversion: tariffs are valves
A US tariff does not retire Chinese capacity. It marks a door restricted, and the goods arrive in Europe. Canada’s new oil pipe is a precaution, not a barrel.
020
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 01/10/2026
In an update, NBC News said that there were injuries to US marines during the Sept 14 attack in the Strait of Hormuz. 8 US Marines injured when an Iranian cruise missile hit the non-Navy vessel they were aboard in the Strait of Hormuz. Ship: St Helena? jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/8-marines-...
010
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 30/09/2026
Yanbu is loading again. Perim still owns the exit. Petroline is back at 2.65 mn b/d, not 5.5. Asia still chooses Hormuz or a halved Bab. Oman STS working The scarce barrel is diesel. Europe’s crack cleared $100. StanChart has prices elevated through 2027. jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/yanbu-is-l...
jamesmarinero.substack.com
Yanbu Is Loading Again. Perim Still Owns the Exit.
Petroline is back at 2.65 million barrels a day, not 5.5. The Oman yard does not empty because a Red Sea door cracks. Asia still has to choose Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb
010
Reposted by James Marinero
Mark Hamill @markhamillofficial.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's inconceivable to me how someone who lost in a free & fair election can incite an angry mob to attack his own government, (the very definition of treason) & be allowed to run for any office ever again.
872298978745
Reposted by James Marinero
Katie Phang @katiephang.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
It's Tuesday and it's time for SIDEBAR Live! Join me at 5:30 pm ET and we'll kick off today's show with @macfarlanenews.bsky.social who was at Former Special Counsel Jack Smith's testimony today before Senate Judiciary! youtube.com/live/x8ZPTJn...
youtube.com
LIVE: Katie Phang Gives UPDATES on BREAKING NEWS - 9/29/2026
YouTube video by Katie Phang
351643509
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 30/09/2026
The war still eats. It no longer moves. Why diesel — not crude — is the constraint on Russia’s war, and on Trump. 1/4
110
Reposted by James Marinero
Mrs. Betty Bowers @mrsbettybowers.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
"Poor, sad, stupid orange white man. He would sell his soul—and country—for a few hollow words of praise."
669104302442
Reposted by James Marinero
MAKS 26 👀🇺🇦 @maks23.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
🇺🇦👀 "We will find a countermeasure to the Russian drones and will definitely prepare our response. And we will hold out. A day longer than they do," — Budanov
544261
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 26/09/2026
Saudi oil transfers to the fleet off Oman, now full. A 2nd transfer station off India would raise throughput but not open a new door. Empty VLCCs still have to return to Hormuz. 7 million b/d is a rebound, not a reopening. Iran's offer is on the table. jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/the-omani-...
jamesmarinero.substack.com
The Omani Lightering Ground is at Full Capacity. Perim Already Took The Other Door.
Saudi barrels left Yanbu and filled the ship-to-ship (STS) anchorage off Oman. A second pad off India would raise throughput. It would not open a new door.
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 24/09/2026
European governments spent the week warning of Russian drones and sabotage. Official Mi-8 probe in Poland; El Mundo: CIA warned Spain, France and Italy of Gerbera drone launches from Mediterranean shipping containers — one source, unconfirmed. EU GVI: 29 jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/mediterran...
Diagram titled Hybrid toolbox, week of 15–24 September 2026. Four boxes. Airspace probes: Russian Mi-8 over Braniewo on 23 September; Gerbera shot down over Lithuania on 15 September; armed Gerbera recovered off Rusinowo on 14 September; civilian drone near Redzikowo, not hybrid. Proxy sabotage: concrete on tracks at Jedlanka on 22 September, prosecutors ruling out sabotage; November 2025 Mika rail bombs noted as context only. Shadow-fleet ISR: no confirmed Mediterranean container launch; El Mundo CIA warning to Spain, France and Italy listed as single-source and unconfirmed. Information ops: doctored Gerbera photo; wire amplification of the El Mundo story; UNGA line of more sabotage and airspace tests but no imminent NATO conventional attack.
000
Reposted by James Marinero
Katie Phang @katiephang.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Once again, and despite court orders & the federal law, Todd Blanche is trying to delay production in the Epstein Files; specifically, he doesn’t want to have to review & produce the foreign-language documents. My latest filing exposes Blanche for his legal hackery. youtu.be/72FTfVLdUS8?...
youtu.be
AG Blanche SCRAMBLES To DELAY Court ORDERS In MY Epstein Lawsuit!!
YouTube video by Katie Phang
602119174276
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 22/09/2026
Nuclear warheads do not stop massed drone attacks. Russia’s MOD said it downed about 1,110 Ukrainian drones across the country, Crimea and the Black Sea (20/9) A nuclear state claims more than 1,000 drones shot down and still has a refinery burning in the capital. gvindex.io/nuclearlimits
010
Reposted by James Marinero
Katie Phang @katiephang.bsky.social · 19/09/2026
Allegations against Lauren Boebert include sexual relations with Congressional employees, hush money payments, and thousands of dollars in misused official and campaign funds. Here's the redacted complaint: media.coloradotimesrecorder.com/wp-content/u...
media.coloradotimesrecorder.com
999130524825
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 19/09/2026
jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/when-the-b...
jamesmarinero.substack.com
When the Bypass Fails: Hormuz, the Petroline and a Market Without a Baseline
Oil at $107 at the 10 September settle. The week to 18 September closed nearer $104.
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 10/09/2026
Five tankers. Then $100. Tuesday: six commodity ships through Hormuz. Riesco (aframax, 106,500 dwt) is on the bottom of the Gulf of Oman — already outside the strait.
Chart showing number of claimed ships hit May 2026-Sept 2026 wk2
110
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 06/09/2026
jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/the-claim-...
jamesmarinero.substack.com
The claim is a sanction. The field is oil.
Milei has put Sea Lion on a list. Washington has put the alliance on a review.
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 02/09/2026
Two VLCCs hit leaving Hormuz — Bahri’s Sidr and Sinokor’s Senegal Prosperity. Tehran says mines; the naval watch says projectiles. Same operators as the August blacklist. jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/the-list-j...
jamesmarinero.substack.com
The list just met the water
Two named exits hit off Oman. Tehran says mines; the naval watch says projectiles. Bahri and Sinokor were already on the August roster.
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 02/09/2026
Iran has named forty-five ships at Hormuz. That is a permit, not a forecast. GDP still files the corridor as a public facility. medium.com/the-dock-on-...
medium.com
Forty-five Ships, And Why GDP Still Misreads a State
A blacklist at Hormuz is a clerk’s valve. League tables still treat output as delivery. The Geopolitical Viscosity Index was built for the…
000
Reposted by James Marinero
Forbes @forbes.com · 22/05/2026
Abrego Garcia was erroneously deported to El Salvador last year due to a clerical error.
forbes.com
Judge Drops Indictment Against Mistakenly Deported Man Kilmar Abrego Garcia
Abrego Garcia was erroneously deported to El Salvador last year due to a clerical error.
59671951530
Reposted by James Marinero
Hoodlum 🇺🇸 @nothoodlum.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
Stephen Colbert ended his final episode of The Late Show while singing "Hello, Goodbye" with Paul McCartney on the Ed Sullivan stage that made The Beatles mega stars.
399133422713
Reposted by James Marinero
The Ukrainian Review @theukrainianreview.bsky.social · 23/05/2026
🇺🇦🇨🇿 Czech President Calls on NATO to "Show Teeth" to Russia The alliance should respond to Russian provocations "quite decisively, potentially even asymmetrically," says Petr Pavel.
1445987
Reposted by James Marinero
MeidasTouch @meidastouch.com · 23/05/2026
Wow. They’re openly defending the deletion of DOJ records about a man accused in a child solicitation case who assaulted police on January 6. Truly the Epstein administration.
54591134837
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 23/05/2026
I just published Mining the Malacca Strait - exploring the consequences of a major global disruption. medium.com/the-dock-on-...
medium.com
Mining the Malacca Strait
Weaponised viscosity: What would happen to global power if a rogue state mined the Malacca Strait?
002
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 30/04/2026
GDP is too "thin" for 2026. I’m testing a state vector model (Ax=b) to quantify "Geopolitical Viscosity" and define an index. High-tech sovereignty (x5​) & Energy (x2​) are coupling, creating non-linear friction. Methodology & 8-vector chart here: www.jamesmarinero.com/analysis/gvi/
jamesmarinero.com
Geopolitical Viscosity Index (GVI) -James Marinero
Quantifying the friction of sovereignty through the Geopolitical Viscosity Index. Explore the 8-vector methodology—from Silicon sovereignty to Maritime latency—and discover why traditional economic metrics fail to predict state stability in non-linear systems.
020
Reposted by James Marinero
chasmkona.bsky.social @chasmkona.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
Wag the Dog (1997) is a political satire film directed by Barry Levinson, starring Robert De Niro and Dustin Hoffman, about a spin doctor and a Hollywood producer who fabricate a war in Albania to distract the public from a presidential sex scandal just before an election. We saw it for real.
17061271472
Reposted by James Marinero
Fred Guttenberg @fredguttenberg.bsky.social · 26/04/2026
If you were horrified watching elected leaders run & scramble because of gun violence, just imagine how my daughter Jaime felt in school running from an active shooter before she was killed. Now, become a part of the solution & only vote for people determined to address gun violence in America.
8004111611464
Reposted by James Marinero
George Takei @georgetakei.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Families can't pay the bills because billionaires have jacked up prices, then protected themselves from investigations and liability by cozying up to the regime.
Screenshot of a tweet by Melanie D'Arrigo (@Darrig...) contrasting that over 70% of Americans struggle to afford food, housing, and healthcare while US billionaires grew their wealth by $1.5 trillion during Trump's second term and Trump more than doubled his own net worth, concluding "This is what an oligarchy looks like." The embedded video shows a CBS Mornings Money Watch segment with a chyron reading "Tips for Saving Money on Everyday Shopping."
602268546
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 27/04/2026
AI Locked and Loaded: Lessons from the Iran War open.substack.com/pub/jamesmar...
open.substack.com
AI Locked and Loaded: Lessons from the Iran War
How AI moved from experimental tool to battlefield essential, revealing its decisive role in precision, autonomy and real-time command during recent Middle East operations — and catastrophic errors
010
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 22/04/2026
Did US Backdoors Disable Iran's Networking Equipment in Epic Fury? open.substack.com/pub/jamesmar...
open.substack.com
Did US Backdoors Disable Iran's Networking Equipment in Epic Fury?
I dissect the allegations, the mechanisms involved, and what they reveal about state-level cyber operations in a modern conflict
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 21/04/2026
Bluetooth postcard finds frigate - OPSEC oopsie🎁 medium.com/the-dock-on-...
medium.com
Bluetooth Postcard Finds the Frigate
A journalist’s low-tech experiment pierced the operational security of a €500 million warship and forced the Dutch Ministry of Defence to…
001
Reposted by James Marinero
Rusudan Djakeli @rusudandjakeli.bsky.social · 18/04/2026
A large crowd as always at the weekly march in Tbilisi. Georgians have been protesting in 8+ cities every day for the last 507 days.
217134493358
Reposted by James Marinero
The Tennessee Holler @thetnholler.bsky.social · 19/04/2026
🔥SEN. @ossoff.senate.gov : “Ivanka’s husband Jared Kushner’s on the Saudi payroll for $2 BILLION— as he leads 🇺🇸 diplomacy + asks sheikhs for billions more… Never have we seen so little effort to hide so much corruption. The Mar-a-Lago mafia taking corruption to spectacular new heights.”
424167605736
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 19/04/2026
Starlink Outage Leaves US Naval Drones Adrift: Insights into Satellite Dependence 🎁 medium.com/the-dock-on-...
medium.com
Starlink Outage Leaves US Naval Drones Adrift: Insights into Satellite Dependence
Internal documents reveal how a brief global network failure halted tests of two dozen unmanned surface vessels off California, exposing…
011
Reposted by James Marinero
Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 02/04/2026
Raskin: "It doesn't give me a lot of comfort that Todd Blanche is now the acting AG. This is the guy who transferred Ghislaine Maxwell from the higher security prison to the low security prison camp in Texas."
768217426790
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 03/04/2026
Iran learning from Chinese video tutorial may have damaged US F-35 with IR missile. 🎁 medium.com/the-dock-on-...
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 02/04/2026
Mizarvision: Chinese Satellite View of Damage to US Missile Defences, But is it Really OSINT?🎁 medium.com/the-dock-on-...
000
Reposted by James Marinero
derek guy @dieworkwear.bsky.social · 31/03/2026
i swear this gov is a TV show. the head of intelligence got hacked and used his real name for a porn account. the head of dept of war accidentally texted war plans to a journalist. and now former head of homeland security grappling with husband's secret cross-dressing double life in anti-LGBTQ admin
887208144935
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 01/04/2026
James Marinero 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 🇺🇦 Russia’s Hula-Hoop Drone: How a Ring-Wing Rewrote the Rules of Range. But Ukraine has its own approach. medium.com/the-dock-on-...
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 31/03/2026
Trump's mysterious ballroom basement - I dug into it. open.substack.com/pub/jamesmar...
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 28/03/2026
Iran's MaRV evades Israel's missile defences over Jerusalem. medium.com/the-dock-on-...
medium.com
Iran’s Manoeuverable Warhead Breakthrough: How MaRVs Challenge Israel’s Defences
Imagery from recent strikes reveals Iran’s use of manoeuvrable re-entry vehicles, exposing vulnerabilities in multi-layered missile shields…
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 27/03/2026
Deep inside Iran’s mountains lie vast, engineered “missile cities” — hardened tunnel networks (built with Western machines) including rail systems, blast doors, concealed launch hatches, and they still have ballistic missiles ready to surge. jamesmarinero.substack.com/p/irans-unde...
jamesmarinero.substack.com
Iran's Underground Missile Cities and Launch Tunnels - Impenetrable?
Exploring the advanced engineering and strategic role of Iran's secretive under-mountain-based missile infrastructure
000
Reposted by James Marinero
Anthony Ryan @anthonyryan.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
Somewhere in the North Korean Propaganda Ministry an official winces and says: “That’s a bit much.”
1041174133961
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 27/03/2026
Eavesdropping on Starlink: How Researchers Turned Internet Satellites into a Stealth GPS Alternative 🎁 open.substack.com/pub/jamesmar...
open.substack.com
Eavesdropping on Starlink: How Researchers Turned Internet Satellites into a Stealth GPS Alternative
Ohio State University’s breakthrough shows that passive listening to Starlink satellite signals can deliver reliable positioning — even when traditional GPS fails
000
Reposted by James Marinero
Wajahat Ali @wajali.bsky.social · 26/03/2026
www.miamiherald.com/news/local/a...
miamiherald.com
Who is Tova Noel, the corrections officer who worked night of Epstein’s death?
Noel was one of the last people to see Jeffrey Epstein alive in his cell.
12275104
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 26/03/2026
Russians Turn to Offline Messengers to Defy Censorship open.substack.com/pub/jamesmar...
open.substack.com
Russians Turn to Offline Messengers to Defy Censorship
With Telegram restricted and internet blackouts spreading, searches for BitChat, Briar and Keet have surged in Russia as people adopt mesh-network apps that work without central servers or internet
000
James Marinero @jamesmarinero.com · 25/03/2026
Putin’s Paranoia: Khamenei’s Ghost Haunts the Kremlin as reports of an Israeli hack on Tehran’s traffic cameras trigger an abrupt security overhaul in Moscow, exposing the Russian president’s deepening vulnerability open.substack.com/pub/jamesmar...
open.substack.com
Putin’s Paranoia: Khamenei’s Ghost Haunts the Kremlin
Reports of an Israeli hack on Tehran’s traffic cameras have triggered an abrupt security overhaul in Moscow, exposing the Russian president’s deepening sense of vulnerability
011