iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 21h

This bad boy www.proidee.de/kueche-gourm...

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 06/10/2026

Hope someone asks her about not policing other peoples identity next time she talks about trans issues…

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 05/10/2026

100% agree. And there are interesting alternatives on the table. But economics, inertia and the risk of change will make it hard for us to move on. Thought this blog was very interesting on the topic www.experimental-history.com/p/the-rise-a...

experimental-history.com

The rise and fall of peer review

Why the greatest scientific experiment in history failed, and why that's a great thing

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 25/09/2026

The obvious problem is that the number of applications being submitted with AI is ballooning too. So something has to give

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

What are the best ideas on how to set written anonymous assignments for students in 2026 that addresses the AI problem?

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Bold to post your wifi password in public

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 12/09/2026

Curious choice to use a very suspect stock image for this article

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 09/09/2026

It took me a minute thinking “woah, you can log in to zoom via teams now?” Think i’ll be seeing myself out..

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 05/09/2026

Anonymized age verification via payment rails (bank cards) has existed for cigarette machines in Germany for literally now two decades and for some reason we cant imagine a safe online age verification. We know how to do this but ignore it. So bizarre

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Reposted by Jakob Thomae

Mike Konczal @mtkonczal.bsky.social · 03/09/2026

BLS this morning, with revised 2Q data: "The labor share, which is the percentage of output that accrues to workers in the form of compensation, was 52.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026, the lowest level in the series, which begins in the first quarter of 1947."

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 27/08/2026

Looking forward to seeing all the „academic freedom“ letters roll in…

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 19/08/2026

I use Claude and I think people should know when I do. So I am pro watermark (even if I disclose use in text anyway). And if i am worried people won‘t engage with my thoughts because of it, then hiding it would make it worse, because it would be intentional deceit in an attempt to take away agency

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 25/07/2026

Really interesting comparator but the right benchmark would be east german population which was only ~16 million in 1989

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 19/07/2026

Wonder if Friedman heard of the pyramids…

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

It is *already* more sensible for my AI use case to use open weights + home engine and thats now (and I never reach any usage limit ever). The economics or large centralized data centers and US frontier labs are going to be brutal

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 08/07/2026

My intuition is that a lot of people are going to realize their „tools they need“ other people may pay for and the extent to which commercial products increasingly just are „tools we need“ (without bells and whistles) are going to blur that distinction, in a whole host of fascinating ways

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 30/06/2026

@edzitron.com assume you have been tagged 100 times and seen it 100 times more but in case

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

To be clear, maybe that was the right choice in terms of maximizing emissions reductions. I dont know. But it had a cost and that cost is now materializing. So we should i think be available to interrogate that. But it doesnt seem like we are unfortunately because of „enabling right wing“. Shame

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

There was a deliberate choice made by many climate ppl to frame rcp8.5 as a baseline to motivate climate action. Ends justify means. That made such means vulnerable to attacks. Interrogating the efficacy & validity of that choice is i think legitimate and not by default bad faith or gendered

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

„Climate ppl“ being accused of enabling or encouraging right wing talking points every time they interrogate or challenge is driving a massive epistemic crisis across climate disciplines. We cannot make critiques verboten out of fear or tribal thinking. That is much more of a an anti climate enabler

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

This is a very good point but then tying plausible impacts to implausible emissions pathways and framing the implausible emissions pathways as baselines is what made this line of attack so effective

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

I think you misunderstood. I agree with this 100% and it was the point i was trying to make. But obviously poorly

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/05/2026

While I agree that the emissions pathway has become irrelevant, the associated impacts of that emissions pathway given increased forcing and economic / social tipping point uncertainty has not. Even if it doesn‘t constitute a baseline, its plausibility may be higher than we fear

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Two things can be true. Scenarios should not be self censored. Rcp8.5 was communicated as the baseline / BAU for many many years by large swathes of climate advocates

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

Ich würde eher sagen „worst case emissionsszenario“. die wahrscheinlichkeit unterschiedlicher klimaszenarien hat sich ja leider ungünstig entwickelt

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

You finance / invest in capacity not production and incredibly hard to forecast factors. Think this is intellectually more honest

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

I‘m more upset about the ahistorical colour choice for the livestock which homer described as purple. Why is nobody talking about this???

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 15/05/2026

Its the prerequisite for having an idea scoop. Obvi…

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Surely the main offense is that he gave it to himself?

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

The problem is often the models. But sometimes its the modellers. And sometimes its people thinking the models can do things they actually cant. So many of our models are not designed to generate numbers but to structure a set of actions where the numbers really are secondary

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

When we built covid 19 stress test models for EIOPA in Feb. 2020, our models kept telling us residential real estate wouldn‘t be affected. I always go back to that example as throwing uncertainty into a model but the model teaching you something that other tools probably couldnt

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

That makes sense. I admit I am conflicted as somebody who is a compulsive modeller. Although as you know I‘m in the „model social tipping points“ camp

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 06/05/2026

I am intrigued by this. What is your take on how to approach integrating tipping points? Ignore them? Heroic assumptions? Heuristics?

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 30/04/2026

I would just contend that the US political system with its Electoral college, 2 seat senate, gerrymandering, 1st pass the post etc is so far away from qualifying as a „successful democracy“ in terms of living principles of proportional representation that there is no way to know…

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Reposted by Jakob Thomae

Emily Pontecorvo @emilypont.bsky.social · 22/04/2026

I have a long story out today about what’s going down at the Greenhouse Gas Protocol. This org touches everything that’s happening globally on climate change, and is painfully (bc it’s so esoteric) important to climate action. Hope you give it a read. heatmap.news/carbon-remov...

heatmap.news

Leading Climate Standards Group Fraught With Secrecy and Bias, Whistleblowers Say

A new report shared exclusively with Heatmap documents failures of transparency and governance at the Greenhouse Gas Protocol.

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Reposted by Jakob Thomae

Zeke Hausfather @zekehausfather.com · 20/04/2026

With the latest set of El Niño forecasts, NOAA's CFSv2 model needs to get a larger y-axis scale 😯

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 17/04/2026

Which was always a misnomer as the gulf stream is caused by earth rotation, and thus will never collapse (unlike amoc)

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Reposted by Jakob Thomae

Catherine McKenna @cathmckenna.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Gas tax breaks are bandaids at best. Real solution is to help low & middle-income Cdns get off fossil fuels. Invest in solar, heat pumps, batteries, EVs. Tackle barriers, offer real incentives & fund w/ windfall tax on Big Oil (who are laughing all the way to the bank). Cleaner, cheaper, healthier.

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Maybe a little less ‚straight‘ fits the message :-)

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

I prefer calling them „sea change batteries“ myself but yes

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 31/03/2026

Took me a minute to realize „sea change batteries“ are not the latest tech innovation I missed. Should look into that though

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 25/03/2026

Sounds like somebody channeled improv skills

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 18/03/2026

This debate misses the point. The relative profitability is not what matters for the transition but the economics of demand which have now fundamentally shifted. The reason green stocks are flat are related to cost of capital impact expectations which operate via a different channel

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Jakob Thomae @jakobthomae.bsky.social · 15/03/2026

Wonder how the urban heat island folls will spin this one

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