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Washington Irving

@irvingwashington22.bsky.social
66 followers 61 following 598 posts

respect sampling variability

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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 14h
I just found my next statistical rabbit hole, thank you/damn you. #rstats.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 03/10/2026
I am here for this sort of content. #statsky
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
i want the confidence of a student presenting a project with complex analysis as their own work to a faculty member with a phd in that very same complex statistical realm. i bet an LLM could give some guidance of how to convince an expert in XX that you also know something about XX.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
With a grant deadline rapidly approaching, it is of course time to update my version of RStudio. And I should I also probably update my macOS at the same time. #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
This is wonderful!
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Some days I just feel like I should have taken the Barney guarding job.
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Aki Vehtari @avehtari.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
"Recommendations for visual predictive checks in Bayesian workflow" published in Journal of Visualization and Interaction doi.org/10.54337/jov..., which is exciting also because this is our first Quarto html journal paper www.journalovi.org/2025-sailyno.... I wish more journals would adopt this!
doi.org
Recommendations for visual predictive checks in Bayesian workflow | Journal of Visualization and Interaction
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 08/09/2026
Today, as on many previous days, I am reminded that the term ‘random effects’ is amongst the worst terms in all of statistics. And yet, random effects models are amongst the most powerful tools in all of statistics.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Dah fuq madness is this??
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 26/08/2026
This is an outright lie and everyone knows it.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
I wonder how many of those posts were ‘this question has been asked already”? And I wonder what stats nerds are doing with all that pent up snark energy?
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pmamtraveller.bsky.social @pmamtraveller.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Bauhaus Milhaus
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Cameron Patrick @cameronpat.bsky.social · 05/08/2026
My take on p-values: 1. p-values do what they are designed to do, which is not what most people using them imagine them to do. 2. Trying to fix p-values is a trap, because no single-number summary can do what people want p-values to do! 3. Trying to explain p-values is also a trap, because...
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Fu*k yes!
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
I’m just going to start imputing missing data and see if anyone notices.
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Vincent Arel-Bundock @vincentab.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
Here's a useful page with a **ton** of common tasks in #RStats, done with parallel syntax for tidyverse vs. data.table vs. base. arelbundock.com/posts/dt_tb_... #rdatatable #tidyverse
arelbundock.com
data.table vs. base vs. dplyr | Vincent Arel-Bundock
Academic website and blog of Vincent Arel-Bundock.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
By default, brms::loo(..., reloo = TRUE) resets the core count to 1 for sampling the chains within each refit. why you gotta do me like that, #brms? who wants to reset the # of cores to 1? WHO? if you're out there, please let me know why? #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
This is amazing and I hippo it gets used widely.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 14/07/2026
I mean, every stats text too, tbh.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
I feel seen.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 07/07/2026
The internet is awash with hidden landmines—beware. I have stepped on this one and I think I’m on a list.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 01/07/2026
Holy cow, this is *amazing* and I highly recommend it to anyone who works with environmental exposure data!
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 28/06/2026
I’m sure I’m not the first to say this, but academic publishers—months to years from writing to acceptance, and the submission related work. And then: return this proof in 2 days (sent on Friday evening, btw). 🤬
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 25/06/2026
Anybody have a resource they like for for fitting frailty models in #brms? Seems like there are some differences in sampling from posteriors. Looking to jumpstart my learning. #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 19/06/2026
Holy flirking schnitt. Endurance sports nutrition is OUT OF CONTROL. The number of absurd claims and dollars per calorie are inconceivable.
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c t @whatulysses.bsky.social · 18/06/2026
can't argue with this.
screenshot from a pop-up window received after downloading Microsoft Office. It features a yellow triangle with an exclamation point and the text, "'Microsoft Teams' is damaged and can't be opened. You should move it to the Trash."
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 13/06/2026
Stern Lecture Statistical Consultants. ‘I told you not to do that’
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 10/06/2026
I thought I was the only one!
media.tenor.com
a cartoon character with blue hair says so this is what it feels like when doves cry ..
ALT: a cartoon character with blue hair says so this is what it feels like when doves cry ..
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 27/05/2026
Every few months i discover that tidyverse has built-in functions to do things I was already doing, just with more steps. I recently discovered value_fill = in pivot_wider. this used to frustrate me, but I’ve come to love it. The breadth of knowledge and expertise out there is 😍. #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
I was today years old when I first received this error message: ‘no more error handlers available (recursive errors?). #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 26/05/2026
It’s both amazing, terrifying, and a little sad that I learned so much regex, got pretty good at it, and now appear to have basically dumped it almost completely from my brain #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 25/05/2026
I mean, what are we even doing here. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41661604/
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 18/05/2026
It’s funny cause it’s true.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 10/05/2026
These are my people.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 08/05/2026
Massive deadline approaching, way behind on analysis. Perfect time to update my version of R and RStudio. Duh. #rstats
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 02/05/2026
I’ve had to resort to eating black licorice as it’s the only candy my locust-like children do not devour immediately upon locating in our house.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 01/05/2026
#brms people. in a random intercept model, prior = c( prior(normal(0, 1), class = "Intercept"), prior(exponential(1), class = "sd")) is equivalent to Aj(mu, tau), mu ~ normal(0,1), tau ~ exponential(1)
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 30/04/2026
Agree with all 3 points. And *hard* agree with #3.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 29/04/2026
The more I read about Bayesian modeling, the more it seems…almost wrong to *not* do it. Especially as samplers, computing power, etc. and especially when one follows a principled workflow as promulgated by @rmcelreath.bsky.social and @avehtari.bsky.social #rstats #bayes
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Darren Dahly @statsepi.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
🎯So many important points packed into this editorial. ht @maartenvsmeden.bsky.social www.nature.com/articles/s41...
nature.com
Show us the evidence for the value of medical AI - Nature Medicine
Claims that medical AI is improving care must be backed by appropriate evidence.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 28/04/2026
Omg yes. I need bread and circus.
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Stephen Wild @stephenjwild.bsky.social · 27/04/2026
Big shout out and thank you to those of you who maintain free teaching materials/lectures/books/etc. online.
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Julia M. Rohrer @dingdingpeng.the100.ci · 22/04/2026
Good news everyone 🥳 Our (w @vincentab.bsky.social) primer on models as prediction machines (with the marginaleffects package) is finally officially published!> journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/...
journals.sagepub.com
Models as Prediction Machines: How to Convert Confusing Coefficients Into Clear Quantities - Julia M. Rohrer, Vincent Arel-Bundock, 2026
Psychological researchers usually make sense of regression models by interpreting coefficient estimates directly. This works well enough for simple linear model...
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 08/04/2026
What are people’s favorite statistics, methods, data science podcasts? Things like @quantitude.bsky.social, @casualinfer.bsky.social, in the interim, etc? #rstats #stasky #episky
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 25/03/2026
See also, Cauchy? Which, bizarrely, is sometimes pronounced ‘Lorentz’.
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Frank Harrell @f2harrell.bsky.social · 24/03/2026
Celebrating the draft FDA Bayesian guidance document with our perspective in @jama.com. Honored to co-author w/Jack Lee (MD Anderson), Lisa LaVange (past director of Office of Biostatistics FDA CDER&president of ASA),& my Bayesian inspiration Sir David Spiegelhalter jamanetwork.com/journals/jam...
jamanetwork.com
Embracing Bayesian Methods in Clinical Trials
This Perspective discusses the importance of the US Food and Drug Administration’s draft guidance on the use of bayesian methods in clinical trials because it underscores its commitment to modernizing...
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
Is worksmaxxing a thing? Like working at all possible times, even in unreasonable times, locations, etc. and also potentially to the detriment of relationships, hobbies, etc.
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 23/03/2026
as far as exchangeability (Pr [Ya = 1|A= 1] = Pr [Ya = 1|A= 0]), the equality is before treatment/exposure, right? that's really the only thing that makes sense...but man, stating that explicitly would save a lot of confusion. i like that "what it" states this so clearly. #causalinferance
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Washington Irving @irvingwashington22.bsky.social · 21/03/2026
I’m in a Markov chain rabbit hole. Send help. #bayes
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