iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 30/09/2026

On Feb 3, 2024, the Warriors lost to the Hawks, despite +101% in win probability added from Steph Curry. It's the 12th best WPA performance from an NBA player in a losing effort (in the play by play era).

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Mina Kimes @minakimes.bsky.social · 21/09/2026

Indianapolis got that call and said errrrrmmmmmm let’s turtle up

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 13/09/2026

Kind of funny that there were 2 tv shows this year that: - Were set on an island with a complicated back story - Teenage character whose mom died in childbirth and had to be raised by their adoptive dad - There is a late season plot twist regarding the lineage of one of the teenagers on the island

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/09/2026

8 more: 51. Hard to Handle - The Black Crowes 52. Don't Worry Baby - The Beach Boys 53. Be My Baby - The Ronettes 54. Hold On - The Alabama Shakes 55. Slave - The Rolling Stones 56. Know Your Enemy - Green Day 57. Wave of Mutilation UK Surf - The Pixies 58. Take Me To The River - Talking Heads

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Evollve @evollve.net · 01/09/2026

Weekly recap is back! 🏐Purdue Fort Wayne gets a B1G win 🏐Jurnee Robinson's ice in her veins 🏐Our first top 25 update! evollve.substack.com/p/weekly-rec...

evollve.substack.com

Weekly Recap: Week 1

Thank you for supporting Evollve!

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Evollve @evollve.net · 21/08/2026

🚨2026 site is live 🚨 Just in time for the start of the season tonight, we've launched the updated Evollve.net including 🏐new features such as player impact metrics like RAPM 🏐game projections including for both games tonight 🏐much more! Our preseason top 10:

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 30/07/2026

Two 🔥 games in the WNBA last night. stats.inpredictable.com/wnba/preCap....

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

it's nice to be able to do things quickly these days, but i try to hand code stuff when i can just to stave off brain rot

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 27/07/2026

me remembering that i started inpredictable because i was doing more management stuff in my day job, but I still wanted an outlet where i could code and play around with data, rather than just tell someone else to code it and review the results.

static.klipy.com

Alonzo Mourning's Disappointment on the Bench

ALT: Alonzo Mourning's Disappointment on the Bench

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 25/06/2026

We’re up to 50: 42. I Love it Loud - KISS 43. Bullet the Blue Sky - U2 44. Take the Money and Run- Steve Miller Band 45. My Sharona - The Knack 46. Scentless Apprentice - Nirvana 47. Rosanna - TOTO 48. Sunday Bloody Sunday - U2 49. Longview - Green Day 50. Billie Jean - Michael Jackson

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 16/06/2026

Here's an alternative look at the biggest shots in modern NBA history, this time sorted by change in title probability (rather than KL divergence). Some my think this is a better list - we get Jordan twice here. But Ray Allen's shot gets downgraded.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

The analysis above utilizes a simple model to assess the importance of each playoff game to a team's chances of winning the championship.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/06/2026

Ranking the biggest shots in modern NBA history (link in thread). As mentioned yesterday, the #1 shot is a put-back, but it wasn't OG's, which ranked 6th. Derrick White #1 Ray Allen #2 Kyrie #3 Big Shot Bob #4 and #5

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

List and accompanying substack post should be up tomorrow. Feel free to make your predictions on what made the list in the replies.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/06/2026

I'm working on a way to quantify the biggest shots in the NBA in the past 30 years - based on impact to championship probability. The #1 shot surprised me. A few hints: 1. It was a putback 2. It wasn't a game 7 3. It's not that one, though it does make the top 10

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 11/06/2026

Clutch Win Probability Added leaderboard for the 1st four games of the 2026 NBA Finals. This counts all potential clutch plays - field goals, free throws, rebounds, turnovers, steals, blocks, and assists.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 05/06/2026

We will eventually expand to additional leagues, but for now we're still focused on NCAA women's volleyball.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Bernoulli specifically requested this epitaph along with an engraved logarithmic spiral to go with it for his tomb. Unfortunately the engraver misunderstood (or didn’t know what a logarithmic spiral was) and produced an Archimedean spiral instead.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

Visiting Jacob Bernoulli’s tomb in Basel. He loved the logarithmic spiral because of its self similarity property. No matter how much you zoom out it looks the same. The epitaph reads “EADEM MUTATA RESURGO”, meaning “Although changed, I will rise again the same”.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

But the post also contains a chart showing what situations this new measure of excitement considers more "exciting". For example, going from 5% win probability to 15% win probability (see bottom left of chart) is a much bigger deal under the new measure.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 02/06/2026

New post on Substack. Largely just an announcement that the new version of Excitement Index is now live for both NBA and WNBA win probability charts. Link: inpredictable.substack.com/p/the-new-ex...

inpredictable.substack.com

The New Excitement Index is now live for NBA and WNBA win probabilities

Fun with information theory

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 31/05/2026

Your opponent getting an offensive rebound when you're trying to make a late comeback is so demoralizing.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

Also funny that tonight's comeback is sandwiched in between the two Pacers comebacks from last year's playoffs - against the Knicks and the Cavs.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 20/05/2026

The 4th and 5th most improbable comebacks of the NBA playoffs took place almost exactly a year apart and at the same venue.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

Using KL-divergence excitement (coming soon to the site), last night was #2, with this Raptors-Cavs game as #1:

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 19/05/2026

By the current definition of excitement index, Spurs-Thunder last night was the most exciting game of the playoffs.

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Reposted by Mike Beuoy

Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 17/05/2026

I really struggle to articulate the disdain I have for the "insider" model that does no investigative reporting or independent analysis and serves only to beat the press release by five minutes. I understand a lot of work goes into it but a lot of work would go into digging a big hole in your yard

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

There is probably an interesting linguistic analysis you could do to show why these words are so beloved by crossword creators.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

Another great word. We try to have it show up at least once a week.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 07/05/2026

I’m in charge of the NYT crossword puzzle. I’m obsessed with the website Etsy, the acronym ETA, the volcano Etna, and the first name of actress Ayo Edebiri.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

it's fun when your ggplots go off the rails in aesthetically interesting ways

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 29/04/2026

The Sixers were 360 basis points from elimination early in the 3rd quarter.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Charlotte-Miami win probability chart:

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

Is this a clutch assist? He does recognize quickly that the screen has left Gordon open. But how much credit should he get? www.nba.com/stats/events...

nba.com

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

A video and Shot Chart interface with the ability to filter down to specific on court events and granular details.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 15/04/2026

I think most would agree this is a legitimate clutch assist from Jokic (double teamed and finding an open Hardaway on the opposite end of the court): www.nba.com/stats/events... But....

nba.com

Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

A video and Shot Chart interface with the ability to filter down to specific on court events and granular details.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Here are their respective highlight reels: Shai: stats.inpredictable.com/nba/jerryWes... Jokic: stats.inpredictable.com/nba/jerryWes...

stats.inpredictable.com

NBA Clutch Play Highlights

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

To make the case for Jokic, you would need to believe that assists and rebounds count as clutch play. Shai leads by a good margin when it comes to clutch shooting. stats.inpredictable.com/nba/jerryWes...

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 14/04/2026

Here are the final player clutch rankings for the 2025-26 NBA season. Shai and Jokic finished neck and neck.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

As pointed out in the article, the relationship flipped this season. Although it flipped in 2022-23 too before reverting back. Technical note: this chart shows pace for team offensive possessions only. Most traditional measures of team pace combine offense and defense.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 10/04/2026

Inspired by Zak Kram's article on pace in ESPN, here is an updated chart that shows team correlation by season between offensive pace versus efficiency. An downward sloping line indicates a positive correlation between fast pace and offensive efficiency.

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Mike Beuoy @inpredict.bsky.social · 08/04/2026

You can set your watch to the reliability of the rubber band effect in the NBA. Red = Team overperforms Blue = Team underperforms Teams play better from behind. It's pretty much the opposite of momentum.

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