iiinova — where your digital self keeps evolving

Reposted by Jonathan Heathcote

Patrick De Haan @gasbuddyguy.bsky.social · 20/09/2026

my live fuel clock showing Americans now have spent $70 billion more on filling up with gasoline since March 1 (vs same period a yr ago) and $44 billion more on diesel (same dates) for a total of ~$114.2 billion spent over this time.

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Aaron Sojourner @aaronsojourner.org · 30/12/2025

"When we think of the US stock market booming, only like 60 percent of that is American wealth, and the other 40 percent is actually foreign wealth. So our net foreign asset position was deteriorating rapidly because the US stock market was booming." www.aeaweb.org/research/net...

Understanding the US net foreign asset position
Andrew Atkeson discusses changes in how much the United States is indebted to the rest of the world.

"When we think of the US stock market booming, only like 60 percent of that is American wealth, and the other 40 percent is actually foreign wealth. So our net foreign asset position was deteriorating rapidly because the US stock market was booming. The thing that really struck us in the data is that our liabilities to foreigners, our net foreign asset position, was deteriorating rapidly because the US stock market was booming. And since foreigners owned a lot of US stocks, the value of their claims against us was booming, which for us means we owed them more money." - Andrew Atkeson

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NBER @nber.org · 01/02/2026

The observed decline in labor’s share of corporate output, in conjunction with relatively weak corporate investment, generates a persistent rise in the ratio of corporate valuation relative to corporate earnings, from Andrew Atkeson, Jonathan Heathcote, and Fabrizio Perri www.nber.org/papers/w34748

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Sergio Ocampo @socampdi.bsky.social · 08/10/2025

🚨We are Hiring at the University of Western Ontario🚨 We have 3️⃣ tenure-track positions: •2 Open-Field •1 linked to our Masters in Financial Economics (open to various fields) Come work with us in 🇨🇦! Share with your students! 📄 Open-Field uwo.ca/facultyrelat... 📄 MFE Position uwo.ca/facultyrelat...

uwo.ca

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 06/04/2025

Longer time series for perspective.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Then we ask whether the observed path for investment is consistent with the required return to capital investment being equal, date by date, to the expected return estimated from the finance model. We find that it is, given a plausible path for expected productivity growth. 8/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

We compare the time series for expected returns from our finance model with a series for realized returns to capital estimated from our macro model (given time series for taxes, depreciation, labor’s share of value-added etc). The two track closely. 7/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Why do we find this? Part of the explanation is that our macro-model consistent firm income measure — free cash flow — looks quite different to dividends paid. At low frequency, valuations and free cash flow clearly co-move, pointing to a link between the two.6/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

The paper’s first result is that our estimated asset pricing model interprets fluctuations in valuations quite differently. We find that fluctuations over the past 100 years mostly reflect fluctuations in long run expected free cash flow! (x in the plot below) 5/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

On top of that, conventional wisdom in finance is that volatility in valuations mostly reflects fluctuations in the expected return that firm owners require (rather than time variation in expected cash flow). If firm owners’ required returns are volatile, why is their capital invested so smooth? 4/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

Valuations are volatile, while the aggregate capital stock is smooth. That poses a challenge to reconciling macro and finance. 3/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 11/02/2025

We study valuations of US corporations from 1929 onward using 2 models: an asset pricing model, and a stochastic growth model that incorporates factorless income. We fit these models to data from the Integrated Macroeconomic Accounts, focusing on free cash flow as a measure of income. 2/

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 14/01/2025

The housing supply is not fixed in the short run. There are lots of people who could rent out second homes, ADUs, or put property on AirBnb, if they felt it would be worthwhile financially.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

I suspect low US taxes and agglomeration effects are big drivers of US dynamism. With respect specifically to Finland, Nokia screwed up.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

They did have access to venture capital — ie some other rich people. But that seems to also exist to some extent in Scandinavia (I watched The Playlist!)

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 12/01/2025

@fatihguvenen.bsky.social is arguing that entrepreneurs need to have skin in the game (i.e they need wealth so they can have an equity stake). That makes sense But many of the richest Americans are self-made — they built big businesses without much initial wealth.

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Reposted by Jonathan Heathcote

Rohit Lamba @rohitlamba.bsky.social · 10/01/2025

Week 2: This week's theory paper in focus is a brilliant conceptual puzzle piece by Thomas & Worrall (1990). What are the implications of risk sharing/insurance provision over time when income is private? They have a surprising answer: it necessarily leads to long-term impoverishment.

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Ben Golub @bengolub.bsky.social · 24/12/2024

In economics, editors, referees, and authors often behave as if a published paper should reflect some kind of authoritative consensus. As a result, valuable debate happens in secret, and the resulting paper is an opaque compromise with anonymous co-authors called referees. 1/

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Bhash Mazumder @bhashmazumder.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

Chicago Fed is hiring in our micro group! The ad is not yet on JOE but see this link. 3+ years of experience. Don't need rec letters but do need to list 3 references: rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com/en-US/FRS/jo...

rb.wd5.myworkdayjobs.com

Economist/Senior Economist/Economic Advisor - Microeconomics Team

Company Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago The Economic Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago invites applications for the Economist/Senior Economist/Economic Advisor positions on th...

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 03/12/2024

I don’t quite understand the table. If I look at highly selective colleges, enrollment for every sub-group declined by more than enrollment for all. Perhaps there is a ‘did not declare race’ group, whose enrollment rose.

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Florian Scheuer @florianscheuer.bsky.social · 29/11/2024

Submit your papers to the next @cepr.org Public Economics Annual Symposium, taking place in Cologne on June 5-6, 2025. Co-organized with @sigginho.bsky.social and Johannes Spinnewijn, keynotes by Cecile Gaubert and @omzidar.bsky.social! cepr.org/events/cepr-...

cepr.org

CEPR Public Economics Annual Symposium 2025

PDF document / 207.07 KB

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WuTangIsForTheChildren @wutangforchildren.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

Remember when "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" tried to teach us about tariffs and no one was paying attention

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

I will continue to update this -- let me know if you want in! (or out!)

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Brian Albrecht @briancalbrecht.bsky.social · 26/11/2024

A little more context on my tariff argument, including why "success" is hard to measure www.economicforces.xyz/p/some-tarif...

economicforces.xyz

Some tariffs are worse than others

My piece in the Financial Times and more thoughts on tariffs

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Garance Genicot @ggenicot.bsky.social · 25/11/2024

📢 Call for Papers open: Nov 1 – Feb 1, 2025 for the annual ThReD Conference, hosted by @MonashUni 📍 Monash Prato Centre, Prato, Italy🇮🇹 📅 June 25-26, 2025 Submit your research thred.devecon.org/conferences/... #EconSky #DevelopmentEconomics

thred.devecon.org

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

I believe these subsidies are for operating costs. The one-time cost of building the line was a different pot of public money.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 24/11/2024

DOGE will find increasing government efficiency is easier said than done. But showing that you are at least trying not to waste taxpayer money is important. My county is raising property taxes sharply while subsidizing local rail to the tune of $116 per ride. www.startribune.com/what-is-nort...

startribune.com

What is Northstar rail’s fate? Likely more of the same, for now

This month marked the 15th year of the commuter rail service between Minneapolis and Big Lake. But ridership numbers haven’t rebounded to pre-pandemic levels, and a St. Cloud connection is uncertain.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Reforms are likely desirable, but these are super nice states to live in, so strong housing demand is supporting high prices in addition to limited supply. How many houses would we need to build in Hawaii to drive prices there down to Mississippi ($171k) or West Virginia ($155k) levels?

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Let me know if you identify as a Minnesotan economist and want in!

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Minnesota Economics Starter Pack! go.bsky.app/SJCFzaU

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 21/11/2024

Why not just have Chicago pay for its own transit? Federal subsidies have led to a lot of wasteful spending across the country.

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Amanda Michaud @amandamichaud.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

New today: my Mpls Fed Research Note on how layoffs and labor supply contribute to unemployment. Labor supply rises in recessions, driving 25-30% of the rise in unemployment & giving insight to workers' perceptions. See what this means for the current moment: www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024...

minneapolisfed.org

Where is the U.S. labor market heading? Interpreting the mixed signals| Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

New data series connects layoffs with the unemployment rate, providing a fresh look at where the labor market might be headed

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

My guess is that there is no waiting list for driving lessons. A nice example of why, in general, market provision beats government.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 19/11/2024

Interesting work on inequality in Norway. Two surprising findings: (1) consumption inequality is high, and (2) inequality is pro-cyclical.

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Jonathan Adams @jonathanjadams.com · 16/11/2024

I put together a starter pack of all the academic macroeconomists I could find on the platform. It's short. Please message me if you would like to be added. go.bsky.app/RYnjd8k #econsky etc.

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Jonathan Heathcote @heathcote.bsky.social · 17/11/2024

This is a late reply, but Coglianese 2018 might be useful. This is one plot from his paper.

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