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Sweden’s left-wing opposition leads in exit poll
Sweden’s left-wing opposition is projected to win Sunday’s parliamentary election, according to an exit poll published by public broadcaster SVT, potentially ending four years of centre-right rule and opening the way for a change of government.
The SVT/Valu poll puts the opposition parties on 51.3% of the vote, compared with 46.8% for the right-wing government parties. The Social Democrats are projected to remain the largest party, with 28.4%, while the Moderates, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s party, are on 18.1%.
The Sweden Democrats, the second-largest political force in the country and the parliamentary supporters of the government, are projected to win 17.2%, down 3.3 percentage points from the previous election.
The exit poll puts the Left Party on 8.0%, the Centre Party on 7.5% and the Greens on 7.4%. The Christian Democrats are projected to receive 6.1%, while the Liberals are on 5.4%.
Swedish exit polls have not always proved accurate. In 2022, for example, an exit poll projected Andersson’s bloc would prevail, but the election was ultimately won by a right-wing coalition headed by Ulf Kristersson, who is now Sweden’s prime minister.
Before the exit polls were announced, speculation was ripe of the first participation of the Sweden Democrats in government. The party, which has neo-Nazi roots, has supported the centre-right government in parliament since 2022. Following four years of parliamentary support, it has now been promised key ministerial posts if the right-wing bloc wins.
The government bloc, known as the Tidö parties, comprises the Moderates, Christian Democrats and Liberals, supported in parliament by the Sweden Democrats. The left-wing opposition brings together the Social Democrats, Centre Party, Greens and Left Party.
The campaign was unusually tense and polarised, marked by personal attacks between party leaders, accusations of disinformation and advertisements inspired by US President Donald Trump’s campaign.
Opinion polls had shown the two blocs almost level, with one of the latest surveys putting the difference at just 0.3 percentage points.
The election has also raised questions about how far Sweden’s political debate has shifted to the right during the Sweden Democrats’ time as power-brokers. Those who have borne the brunt of the far right’s influence worry that the country, long held up as a leading light on equality and freedom, may have been irrevocably changed regardless of the result.
During Kristersson’s government, the Sweden Democrats have used their leverage to steer policies on migration and crime, while linking the two and blaming migrants, Muslims and other minorities for the country’s problems.
In the meantime, the Social Democrats have slowly tilted to the right on migration and crime.
The campaign also focused heavily on crime and the cost of living. In its final stages, Kristersson highlighted reduced sentences for offenders convicted of multiple crimes. He accused opposition leader Magdalena Andersson of failing to protect rape victims, while she accused him of using violence against women as a political weapon.
The Prime Minister, who cast his ballot with his family and Welsh springer Winston, said he expected “a very, very exciting” evening and insisted that “the momentum” was on his side, even as his party appeared to be losing support in recent polls.
His focus, however, was on winning as a bloc and continuing the government’s work.
“We are team leaders, that is our role in Swedish politics,” he said.
“The precondition for getting things done is actually the ability to compromise, to have a clear vision but be pragmatic,” he added. “If we get people’s votes we will continue to do that for the coming four years.”
Sources: www.svt.se, BGNES, The Guardian
Caption: Social Democrats (S) leader Magdalena Andersson arrives at the party’s election night watch party at the Stockholm Waterfront Congress Centre in central Stockholm, Sweden, 13 September 2026. Sweden’s general election takes place on 13 September 2026, with voters electing members of the Riksdag as well as representatives in regional and municipal elections. EPA/JONAS EKSTROMER
