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Giuseppe Spatafora

@gspataf95.bsky.social
551 followers 284 following 255 posts

Analyst for transatlantic relations 🇺🇸 at @euiss.bsky.social 🇪🇺. PhD International Relations @politicsoxford.bsky.social @ox.ac.uk. Formerly at NATO Policy Planning Unit, ISF fellow 2025

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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
How could Canada’s "associate membership" benefit Europe? "The most significant impact would be in the energy sector," @gspataf95.bsky.social tells Euronews. Canada’s raw materials could also help the EU develop strategic industries. www.euronews.com/2026/09/29/w...
euronews.com
What is an EU "associate member"? Why is Canada the first?
European Commission's Ursula von der Leyen formally invited Canada to become the EU’s first-ever “associate member”. What is an “associate member” and what does this mean for Canada and the EU? #EuXl
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
The book builds on my DPhil @politicsoxford.bsky.social and on support from @oocdtp.bsky.social @kelloggoxford.bsky.social
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
9/ The book is available at @routledgebooks.bsky.social as hard copy or e-book: www.routledge.com/Explaining-F...
routledge.com
Explaining Foreign Support Escalation in Civil War: From Sponsorship to Intervention
This book investigates why some foreign powers that initially assist warring parties in civil wars later escalate to direct military involvement. This volume connects proxy war and direct intervention...
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
8/ The book also probes the external validity of the theory via short case studies.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
7/ I test the argument via two extensive case studies: Fascist Italy in Spain (1936) and Russia in the Donbas (2014). Dividing the conflicts into several escalation decisions provides significant support for the theory.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
6/ For sponsors who DO escalate assistance, then the question is: when do they become active warring parties themselves? Two variables - proxy effectiveness and the costs of delaying battlefield action - determine the sponsor's decision.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
5/ Not all sponsors will decide to "escalate" assistance: some will decide to reduce or end support, or will change to other strategies such as mediation and conflict resolution.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
4/ Why would sponsors want to change the form of assistance it provides to a warring party? A key reason in the evolution of battlefield dynamics and the balance of power:
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
3/ We have large literatures on proxy warfare and on military intervention, but much less work on the transition between the two. The book defines first what direct and indirect support are:
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
2/ The book asks the following question: 𝗪𝗵𝘆 𝗱𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗹𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗱𝘆 𝘀𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗮 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝘆 𝗶𝗻 𝗮 𝗰𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝗿 𝘀𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗲𝘀 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗱𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗻𝗲 𝗱𝗶𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀?
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 25/09/2026
International interventions in conflict will remain relevant in years to come - many framed as support to local warring parties. My @routledgebooks.bsky.social book "Explaining support escalation in civil war" (out on Sept 15) deals with this key subject. 🧵 1/
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 24/09/2026
Glad to speak to @opinion.bloomberg.com @lionellaurent.bsky.social on this:
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
The 🇺🇲🇩🇰🇬🇱 deal is an example of how Europe reduced a transatlantic confrontation: deterrence early in the year and negotiations for future cooperation later. More ideas for keeping transatlantic relations working in my latest brief @euiss.bsky.social:
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
What could the ‘associate membership’ for Canada proposed by @vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu look like in practice? @gspataf95.bsky.social argues for an association agreement going beyond trade, covering defence, economic security, technology, energy & foreign policy. www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
iss.europa.eu
The EU's first associate member? How to make EU-Canada ties stronger and tighter
The momentum is there for Europe and Canada to take their partnership to a new level. A political agreement shaping the vision for 'associate membership' status, together with stronger sectoral cooper...
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
🇨🇦 Could Canada become the EU's first "associate member"? Cooperation is growing, but several obstacles stand in the way. @gspataf95.bsky.social maps the possible models for closer integration, what each would entail and whether both sides would want to pursue them. www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
New EUISS Commentary by Giuseppe Spatafora | The EU's first associate member? How to make EU-Canada ties stronger and tighter
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
An addition to the @euiss.bsky.social contributions to #SOTEU: how can Canada and the EU elevate their partnership? What could 'associate membership' look like? Where can practical cooperation expand further? My latest commentary: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Today’s #SOTEU touched on several questions EUISS has been working on closely: Europe’s security architecture, how to sustain support for Ukraine & the strategic enablers Europe still lacks. Some of our proposals ↓
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
Read the full text: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
iss.europa.eu
More arrows to Europe's quiver: How to manage transatlantic relations beyond the midterms
The transatlantic relationship has come under strain in 2026 but has not collapsed. Hopes that the US midterms will ease tensions may be misplaced. To navigate the next two years, Europe needs a versa...
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
6/ Europe therefore needs more arrows 🏹 in its quiver: preserve cooperation where possible, but build a stronger capacity to counter coercion—by maintaining European unity, strengthening deterrence and raising the costs of hostile measures.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
5/ Europe's dilemma will not change either: it needs to keep cooperation w. DC to avoid opening gaps in deterrence, but it also must be ready to push back against coercion - repeating the successful deterrence of threats over Greenland, but in potentially harder contexts.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
4/ Also, Europe will not be the priority in the new Congress. Emphasis will be on domestic matters and planning for 2028. Foreign policy may focus on ending the Iran War, but hardly on Europe.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
3/ However some maintain a risky assumption: that the midterms will force a less confrontational US approach. That's unlikely. A change in Congress could constrain the administration, but it would not change its approach. Trump will likely just ignore Congress.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
2/ Transatlantic relations faced major crises in 2026, with trust falling further in the EU AND in the US (see graph). But Europe largely resisted US pressure while avoiding a wider rupture—and continued cooperating with Washington where interests aligned.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
1/ Will the US midterms bring transatlantic relations back to normal? Europe should not count on it. My new @euiss.bsky.social Brief looks at the outlook beyond November—and at the more versatile playbook Europe will need for the next two years. 🧵
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 15/09/2026
Europe shouldn't bank on the midterms to fix the transatlantic relationship. Tensions are likely to persist & Europe needs a more versatile playbook: pushing back against coercion while preserving cooperation where interests converge, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social shorturl.at/1otY8
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
8/ book available for pre-order as hardback or e-book here (or reach out to me!): www.routledge.com/Explaining-F...
routledge.com
Explaining Foreign Support Escalation in Civil War: From Sponsorship to Intervention
This book investigates why some foreign powers that initially assist warring parties in civil wars later escalate to direct military involvement. This volume connects proxy war and direct intervention...
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Giuseppe Spatafora 8/ Many thanks to those who helped make this book a reality: @politicsoxford.bsky.social @kelloggoxford.bsky.social @oocdtp.bsky.social & many more!
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
7/ The book will be useful to anyone working on civil wars, proxy warfare, external intervention, escalation, and its consequences - and also to policymakers dealing with the risks and benefits of external support.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
6/ The book develops and tests this argument through detailed historical cases, including: • Fascist Italy in the Spanish Civil War • Russia’s escalation in the Donbas in 2014 • additional wars like Angola, Vietnam and Libya Interesting to both history geeks and policy specialists
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
5/ I develop a new explanation: 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗘𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝗼𝗿𝘆. Direct intervention becomes more likely when sponsors face growing risks to their objectives and other, less direct forms of intervention would not suffice to change battlefield dynamics.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
4/ Why does a sponsor sometimes keep providing weapons, money, intelligence or other forms of support… …but in other cases conclude that indirect support is no longer enough? What pushes a state from sponsorship to intervention?
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
3/ We know a lot about why states support armed groups abroad. We also know a lot about why states intervene militarily, but these two decisions are often studied separately. The book asks what happens in between.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
2/ The book asks a simple question: Why do states that are already supporting a party in a civil war sometimes decide to intervene directly with their own forces?
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
1/ One week until book launch!🔔 𝗘𝘅𝗽𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗻𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝗲𝗶𝗴𝗻 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁 𝗘𝘀𝗰𝗮𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗖𝗶𝘃𝗶𝗹 𝗪𝗮𝗿: 𝗙𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽 𝘁𝗼 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 will be out with @routledgebooks.bsky.social on September 15! 🧵
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
Forbes @forbes.com · 01/09/2026
“Potentially millions of American voters may not receive their mail-in ballot this election cycle in a timely manner, or at all,” the whistleblower warned.
forbes.com
USPS Whistleblower Warns New Rule Could Keep Voters From Getting Ballots—What To Know
“Potentially millions of American voters may not receive their mail-in ballot this election cycle in a timely manner, or at all,” the whistleblower warned.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
How to seize the moment - a key feature of transatlantic relations today:
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 27/08/2026
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
The war with Iran has sharply reduced US weapons supplies to Europe, including Ukraine, exposing a critical vulnerability. To deter Russia with less America, Europeans must take charge of all aspects of conventional deterrence, argues @gspataf95.bsky.social. 🔗 shorturl.at/b19GB
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
🗨️ Ukraine's experience is extremely important to NATO & Europeans. Its solutions, particularly regarding the battlefield-to-industry innovation loop, will be key to preparing European armed forces for modern conflicts, said @gspataf95.bsky.social to Telegraf. news.telegraf.com.ua/ukr/mir/5946...
news.telegraf.com.ua
Напад Росії на НАТО не за горами? У Брюсселі розкрили справжні плани Кремля
Україна розуміє агресора краще за більшість європейських армій.
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Reposted by Giuseppe Spatafora
EU Institute for Security Studies @euiss.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
NATO endorsed a new strategy to improve industry’s access to the Alliance. But "the key limitation is funding" warns @gspataf95.bsky.social in @euractiv.com. NATO provides limited financial support compared with the EU’s recent defence funding initiatives. www.euractiv.com/news/nato-se...
euractiv.com
NATO seeks bigger industry role in capability planning. Here’s how. | Euractiv
Some of the challenges will be to ensure smaller players have access to NATO too
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Read the rest of the ideas here: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
iss.europa.eu
Empowering Ukraine
How can the EU better empower Ukraine? This collection of expert analyses offers practical policy proposals, arguing that that stronger EU support for Ukraine’s defence, recovery and integration is ke...
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Idea 2: How to turn Trump's momentum into concrete gains? The EU should persuade the US to mount pressure on Russia + invite US companies to produce key weapons for Ukraine in Europe (not returning to PURL purchases)
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
Idea 1 (w. @ditrych.bsky.social): How to facilitate Ukraine's reconstruction while deconflicting EU and US approaches? A Peace and Prosperity Compact within the G7, focused on setting up favourable conditions for investment in Ukraine
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 20/07/2026
We publish today a set of new @euiss.bsky.social ideas on how to support Ukraine (led by @ditrych.bsky.social). I contributed w. 2 transatlantic suggesions: 1⃣ How to facilitate reconstruction while deconflicting EU and US approaches 2⃣ How to turn Trump’s pro-Ukraine moment into concrete action
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
The discussion links well to my latest commentary w. @lscazzieri.bsky.social on European leadership in defence: www.iss.europa.eu/publications...
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Paywall-free link: wpintelligence.washingtonpost.com/topics/globa...
wpintelligence.washingtonpost.com
After Ankara: The drive to make NATO 3.0 a reality - WP Intelligence
European leaders are promising to make their continent a modern defense industrial powerhouse. But that is easier said than done.
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
While continued US-Europe defence cooperation makes sense, we should push for “less ITAR restrictions on products built in Europe and more co-sharing of IP and design authority.”
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
"The biggest capability gap remains in the high-end systems, as the U.S. has historically provided the majority or totality of capabilities".
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 15/07/2026
Glad to speak to the @washingtonpost.com on the challenges of Europeanisation of deterrence after the #NATO summit. "“The biggest problem, in my opinion, is continued U.S. uncertainty" & a withdeawal "not in a coordinated fashion but in haphazard manner"...
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Giuseppe Spatafora @gspataf95.bsky.social · 11/07/2026
It was a true pleasure to brief @andriuskubilius.ec.europa.eu and his cabinet on our @euiss.bsky.social work. Grateful that the commissioner finds the time to engage with the think tank community. @sbeverts.bsky.social @lscazzieri.bsky.social @joristeer.bsky.social
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