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Giovanni Mellace

@giovannimellace.bsky.social
676 followers 179 following 42 posts

Professor at the University of Southern Denmark and chairperson of the Econometrics and Data Science research platform. I work on Causal Inference.

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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 29/05/2026
In 1961 Cuba bet everything on health and education. Did it work? New paper with Rok Spruk follows the next 60 years and finds the payoff was real and lasting: fewer infant deaths, longer lives, and human capital that compounded for generations. arxiv.org/abs/2605.29785
arxiv.org
Long-Term Health and Human Capital Effects of Universal Health Care and Mass Literacy: Evidence from Cuba
We estimate long-run effects of Cuba's 1961 National Health Service and contemporaneous National Literacy Campaign using synthetic-control methods on newly assembled series for 21 former European colo...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 20/04/2026
Dealing with many weak instruments? 📉 Our new paper "Jackknife Instrumental Variable Inference" (JIVI) provides robust tests for models with endogeneity & heteroskedasticity. Better size and power in tough settings! 🚀 Read the full draft: arxiv.org/abs/2604.1543
arxiv.org
Jackknife Instrumental Variable Inference
This paper introduces a class of jackknife-based test statistics for linear regression models with endogeneity and heteroskedasticity in the presence of many potentially weak instrumental variables. T...
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Review of Economics and Statistics (REStat) @restatjournal.bsky.social · 02/12/2025
A new way to estimate causal effects when using several IVs. Just Accepted new paper by Nadja van’t Hoff, Arthur Lewbel, and Giovanni Mellace zurl.co/XZvKK
zurl.co
Limited Monotonicity and the Combined Compliers LATE
Abstract. We consider endogenous binary treatment with multiple binary instruments. We propose a novel limited monotonicity (LiM) assumption that is generally weaker than alternative monotonicity assumptions in the literature. We define and identify (under LiM) the combined compliers local average treatment effect (CC-LATE), which is arguably a more policy-relevant parameter than the weighted average of LATEs identified by two-stage least squares (TSLS), and is identified under more general conditions. Estimating the CC-LATE is trivial, equivalent to running TSLS with one constructed instrument on a subsample. We use our CC-LATE to empirically assess how knowledge of HIV status influences protective behaviors.
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 17/09/2025
🎉 Thrilled to share that my paper with Riccardo Di Francesco has been accepted at Economics Letters! 🔗 arxiv.org/abs/2502.11691
arxiv.org
Causal Inference for Qualitative Outcomes
Causal inference methods such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences are widely used to identify and estimate treatment effects. However, when outcomes are ...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 03/09/2025
Excited to share our new paper on arXiv! 📢 With my amazing colleagues Seetha Menon and Nadja van 't Hoff, we show that—contrary to common belief—men use more healthcare than women when faced with an unexpected health shock. 🔗 arxiv.org/abs/2509.01310
arxiv.org
Gender Differences in Healthcare Utilisation - Evidence from Unexpected Adverse Health Shocks
This paper is the first to provide causal evidence of gender differences in healthcare utilisation to better understand the male-female health-survival paradox, where women live longer but experience ...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 22/07/2025
Excited to present at #iHEA2025 in Bali 🌴: 📄 Nudging Nutrition: Lessons From the Danish "Fat Tax" 📄 Sex Differences in Healthcare Utilisation: Evidence from Unexpected Adverse Health Shocks #IHEA205
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 23/06/2025
Looking forward to presenting in Torino at #IAAE2025 our Shapley Instruments paper in a super interesting session. Join us on Wednesday if you attend the conference
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 21/06/2025
It's always a great time visiting my coauthor @fedeabides.bsky.social in Siena. This time I also presented our brand new paper Shapley Instruments joint with Nadja van't Hoff and Zsolt Sandor.
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 15/06/2025
I had such a great time at #espe2025 in Napoli. Very interesting presentations and outstanding social events in an amazing location.
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 11/06/2025
🎉 Excited to share that our paper "Limited Monotonicity and the Combined Compliers LATE" (with Nadja van’t Hoff and Arthur Lewbel) has been accepted for publication in the Review of Economics and Statistics! 📄 fmwww.bc.edu/EC-P/wp1059....
fmwww.bc.edu
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 28/05/2025
Looking forward to presenting my paper with my great coauthor @rokspruk.bsky.social in Palermo on Friday. We evaluate the huge investment in public health and education that followed the revolution finding long lasting effects.
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 22/05/2025
🚨 PhD course @sdu.dk this August! "Historical Perspectives on Current Econ Issues: Big Data & Applications" 📅 Aug 11–22 | Odense 👨‍🏫 Christopher Meissner (UC Davis) Apply by July 1 www.sdu.dk/en/forskning...
sdu.dk
PhD summer school
PhD Course: Historical Perspectives on Current Economics Issues: Big Data and Applications HEDG and Department of Economics, University of Southern Denmark 12–22 August 2024
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Julius Koschnick @juliuskoschnick.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
🚨🚨🚨PhD summer school at the University of Southern Denmark 🚨🚨🚨What can we learn about tariffs and trade from history? Chris Meisner, our keynote speaker, is one of the most renowned experts on historical trade and policy. + Learn ML + NLP tools in a hands-on-approach. Join us 11-22 August 2025!
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 21/02/2025
Looking for a salaried PhD position? Join my colleague in a cutting-edge research project at SDU, in collaboration with MIT, to explore the transformative impact of disability reforms with register data! Apply here: fa-eosd-saasfaprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
fa-eosd-saasfaprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com
PhD scholarship for research project on disability reform in Applied Economics
Application deadline: April 1, 2025, 23.59 CET.
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 18/02/2025
Is your outcome a qualitative variable, but you still want to conduct causal inference? Check out our new paper Causal Inference for Qualitative Outcomes! We provide an open-source R package,causalQual , for easy implementation: 🔗 github.com/riccardo-df/... 📄 arxiv.org/abs/2502.11691
arxiv.org
Causal Inference for Qualitative Outcomes
Causal inference methods such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences are widely used to estimate treatment effects. However, their application to qualitativ...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 30/01/2025
We’re looking for a motivated researcher to apply for a Marie Skłodowska-Curie postdoc with our Econometrics & Data Science group at SDU! Focus: Causal Inference, Machine Learning, Big Data Full support for promising projects More info & apply: www.sdu.dk/en/om-sdu/in...
sdu.dk
Econometrics and Data Science
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Federico Crudu @fedeabides.bsky.social · 12/01/2025
🚨NEW WP OUT!🚨 Our working paper with Claudio Detotto & Carlo Caporali on the causal impact of terrorism on voter turnout during Italy's Years of Lead is out! Comments and suggestions welcome! Link here: crenos.unica.it/crenos/publi...
crenos.unica.it
Terror and Turnout: The Impact of Terrorism During the Years of Lead | CRENoS
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Andreas Steinmayr @andreassteinmayr.net · 28/11/2024
Our latest research with Toman Barsbai and Christoph Winter is now forthcoming in JOLE! 📄 We explore how labor market conditions at arrival shape migrants’ integration, showing that arriving during recessions pushes migrants into lower-paying jobs—a persistent effect lasting over 10 years.
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 28/11/2024
We are looking for a full professor in economics with Focus on Big Data and Large Language Models in Social Data Science. Deadline: February 17, 2025 fa-eosd-saasfaprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com/hcmUI/Candid...
fa-eosd-saasfaprod1.fa.ocs.oraclecloud.com
Professorship in Economics with Focus on Big Data and Large Language Models in Social Data Science
Application deadline: February 17, 2025.
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Michael Knaus @mcknaus.bsky.social · 19/11/2024
New WP 🚨 1. Recipe to write estimators as weighted outcomes 2. Double ML and causal forests as weighting estimators 3. Plug&play classic covariate balancing checks 4. Explains why Causal ML fails to find an effect of 1 with noiseless outcome Y = 1 + D 5. More fun facts arxiv.org/abs/2411.11559
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Looking to hire a talented and dedicated econometrician? I highly recommend Nadja van't Hoff. We collaborated with Arthur Lewbel on "LiM and the CC-LATE", R&R at the REStat. In her JMP, she develops novel identification results for settings with non-binary, ordered treatments. nadjavanthoff.com
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 15/11/2024
Roberta Di Stefano and I have updated our paper, "The Inclusive Synthetic Control Method." The new version, now incorporating the penalized SCM in our application, is available here: arxiv.org/abs/2403.17624.
arxiv.org
The inclusive Synthetic Control Method
We introduce the inclusive synthetic control method (iSCM), a modification of synthetic control methods that includes units in the donor pool potentially affected, directly or indirectly, by an interv...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 06/11/2024
The US elections in a nutshell 🤦‍♂️https://www.dailymail.co.uk/video/news/video-3306573/Video-time-Puerto-Rican-Trump-voter-reveals-shocking-reason.html
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Clément de Chaisemartin @cdechaisemartin.bsky.social · 07/10/2024
Sciences Po has junior positions in econometrics and in health/environmental this year, please apply, and please RT! econjobmarket.org/positions/10...
econjobmarket.org
EJM - Econ Job Market
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 29/10/2024
We are highering a tenure-track Assistant Professor in Macroeconomics, deadline December 1, 2024. eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com?url=https%3A...
eur03.safelinks.protection.outlook.com
EJM - Econ Job Market
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Paul Hünermund @p-hunermund.com · 20/09/2024
Please like and share. Help us to spread the word in these post-Twitter times! 🙏
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Federico Crudu @fedeabides.bsky.social · 10/06/2024
I'm happy to share that our paper with @giovannimellace.bsky.social , Roberta Di Stefano, and Silvia Tiezzi has been accepted in Labour Economics. www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...
sciencedirect.com
The gray zone: How not imposing a strict lockdown at the beginning of a pandemic can cost many lives
The public debate on the effectiveness of lockdown measures is far from being settled. We estimate the impact of not having implemented a strict lockd…
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Christian Vedel @christianvedel.bsky.social · 04/04/2024
🚨New language model for historical occupations🚨 OccCANINE is a new tool, which turns occupational descriptions (in all their pesky variety) into standard HISCO codes. Accurate, multilingual and fast. Developed by Christian M. Dahl, Torben Johansen, and myself (1/12)
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 27/03/2024
Roberta Di Stefano and I have substantially updated our paper the "inclusive Synthetic Control Method" (available here arxiv.org/abs/2403.17624). Our iSCM allows to include units affected directly or in indirectly by the treatment in the donor pool and it works with most SC-type estimators.
arxiv.org
The inclusive Synthetic Control Method
We introduce the inclusive synthetic control method (iSCM), a modification of synthetic control type methods that allows the inclusion of units potentially affected directly or indirectly by an...
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Reposted by Giovanni Mellace
Michael Knaus @mcknaus.bsky.social · 04/03/2024
Very happy to contribute to this great initiative to #SupportUkraine When? April 11th What? 2h of fun understanding how (easy) DoubleML and Causal Forests of @VC31415 and @Susan_Athey work by replicating R output in few lines of code. #RStats How? Sign up here t.ly/3weFr
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 11/01/2024
We are looking for highly motivated researchers to submit joint Marie Skłodowska-Curie applications. Our Econometrics and Data Science research group has strong expertise in Machine Learning, Causality and Applied Microeconomics. inomics.com/scholarship/...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 21/12/2023
Our group is looking for a 3-year postdoc with expertise in Health Economics to work on a project with my wonderful colleague Seetha Menon (www.seetha-menon.com) , consider applying! www.aeaweb.org/joe/listing....
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 20/12/2023
Check out our new working paper on the causal effect of the Danish "fat tax" on consumption of several products. Joint project with Nadja van't Hoff, Christian M. Dahl, and Sinne Smed. #econsky arxiv.org/abs/2312.11481
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 07/12/2023
One of my favorite: knowledge4policy.ec.europa.eu/event/compie...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 30/11/2023
A great paper on how to identity an intuitive causal parameter under a weak monotonicity assumption in a setting with a nonbinary treatment and many IVs by Nadja van’t Hoff is now out. Highly recommend! arxiv.org/abs/2311.17575
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 24/11/2023
Come and study for your MSc in Odense! www.linkedin.com/posts/giovan...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 31/10/2023
My paper with Seetha Menon and Florian Ege has finally been published in Scientific Reports. nature.com/articles/s41... Our results suggest that about 4500 deaths could have been avoided had Sweden implemented a lockdown during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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Christian Odendahl @codendahl.bsky.social · 08/10/2023
The German @taz.de, admittedly a left-leaning daily, gives the AfD its proper colour.
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Khoa @khoavuumn.bsky.social · 23/09/2023
(X'X)^-1 X'Y
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 27/09/2023
Please circulate: We are hiring one or more 3-year Assistant Professors in Econometrics and Data Science. Deadline: October 10, 2023 #Econometrics #Economics #DataScience #Econsky www.sdu.dk/en/service/l...
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 24/09/2023
Great poster presentation of our joint paper by Nadja van't Hoff #EALE2023 #EALE2023Prague
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Giovanni Mellace @giovannimellace.bsky.social · 22/09/2023
Not a bad view from a conference room #EALE2023 #EALE2023Prague
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