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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985.bsky.social
2.6K followers 430 following 104 posts

Director, Global Macro at Eurasia Group. Former RAND China Research Center, Senior Geo-Economics Analyst at Bloomberg, CSIS, DNIO for Economic Issues at NIC, and CIA. All views my own.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
If you want more hot takes on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, here you go! I joined my RAND Europe colleague @fraghi.bsky.social on her "Geoeconomic Competition" podcast. open.spotify.com/episode/3zFd...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 10/10/2025
Thank you for cross pollinating. Too many platforms. Also, it's legitimately funny to me that they have secret but publicly disclosed orders.
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Bartapest @bartapest.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Four-fifths of China’s lost exports to the US have already found alternative markets in the second quarter, the top destinations being Southeast Asia and Europe: www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art... @gdp1985.bsky.social #trade
hinrichfoundation.com
China goes to (trade) war
Eighty-two percent of China’s lost exports to the US found alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, a diversion that likely benefited from Beijing’s policy support.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts! www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
prcleader.org
Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War | China Leadership Monitor
China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversi...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
China nerds, rejoice! The Relevant Organs is back and on here. Follow them for all the news you need. @relevantorgans.bsky.social
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I'll be on a stellar panel this evening discussing the resilience of China's economy. I'll be providing the view from Europe. With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed! www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
rand.org
How Resilient Is China’s Economy?
Have decades of economic planning rendered China’s economy more resilient to external shocks? RAND Europe aims to address this critical question by convening leading experts who will delve into the st...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 08/04/2025
So, CA deficit contributing to CA surplus (income) rather than CA deficit contributing to FA surplus. Got it.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs: - 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports - 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List - 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected) - No product-specific export controls Less than proportional response.
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Simon Lester @simonlester.com · 01/03/2025
This is a strong possibility.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Yes. But then I added NEVs (they defined it before NEVs were big) so people wouldn't ask about the very-popular NEVs.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
media.tenor.com
a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .
ALT: a little girl is asking why not both while standing in a kitchen .
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
Do it anyway
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
When in Taipei... Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
In that case, the "skills" people were wrong. It *was* an aggregate demand problem. Those people got jobs when the economy improved but with lasting harms. Young Chinese shouldn't similarly blame themselves for macro policy failures. 2/
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...
open.substack.com
Four stories of Chinese youth breaking through high unemployment
Youth unemployment has emerged as a pressing social issue in China.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
There's a tension between Trump's emergent desire for a clear US sphere of influence in the Americas and his opposition to those economies being integrated with the US. 🤔
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 25/01/2025
Haggis is great
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Concur. Thank you.
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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Some thoughts on e-CNY and RMB internationalization (replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
This report emphasizes the importance of Gulf countries "recycling" their petrodollar surpluses. The petroyuan could end these benefits for the US, it says. But Gulf surpluses with AEs (USD bloc) were far larger in GDP terms during the heyday of the petrodollar than with China today.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
@paulblustein.bsky.social @danielmcdowell.bsky.social thoughts?
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
This is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
What's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
What are the best research papers on Chinese industrial policy in recent years? Please send links.
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Mark Parker Young @markparkeryoung.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Xi Jinping's single most interesting diplomatic interaction caught on video was with Justin Trudeau in 2022. Unique glimpse of Xi's approach and style in a challenging situation. This was not a favorable setting for Xi and he didn't want to actually engage, he just wanted youtu.be/4YkzzhI2EoI
youtu.be
Xi Jinping confronts Justin Trudeau at G20 over 'leaked' conversation details
YouTube video by Guardian News
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
UPDATE: Today is my first day at RAND's new China Research Center. I look forward to working with Jude Blanchette to expand RAND's research into new areas, especially relating to China's economy and US-China economic competition.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
I certainly hope so. Metro subway has improved but Metro buses need work.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
Why? Our downtown is barely alive compared to before Covid.
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Rhodes Cartography @thinkinginspace.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Just published an article that is, unusually, not mainly about maps. I've been working on a book on this subject for many years-- Naval History was kind enough to publish this piece on one aspect of the story of Alexander Macomb Mason. And there are still a few maps. www.usni.org/magazines/na...
usni.org
Forgotten American Innovator
From the Confederate coast to South America to Egypt, the adventurous Alexander Macomb Mason carried his mine-warfare expertise far and wide during the 1800s.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
This was Caturday
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
I'd like to get an EV. But I live in DC. Seems like charging EVs in cities isn't practical and that the "home chargers" I'm reading about assume you live in the suburbs. Sad.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Amazing
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
The military dimension can't be ignored. If the US defends Taiwan, the econ disruptions will be automatic and sanctions will be politically inevitable. If the US doesn't defend Taiwan, it's not clear why the US should/could lead some anti China economic coalition. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | A China-Taiwan War Would Start an Economic Crisis. America Isn’t Ready.
Congress must prepare a plan now to avoid global meltdown.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Beach reading
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
There are no DC bakeries on this list. But that's because Tatte has 14 (going on 40) locations in the area and they'd have to divide the points. If any of these artisanal bakeries moves in on DC, Tatte will crush them. "Croissant quantity has a quality all its own." www.nytimes.com/article/best...
nytimes.com
The Best Bakeries in America
In this golden age of American bakeries, virtuosic pastries and delightful breads are close at hand, from coastal Maine to downtown Los Angeles.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 24/12/2024
Horses are HS code 0101 for a reason
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