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Gerard DiPippo

@gdp1985.bsky.social
2.6K followers 430 following 104 posts

Director, Global Macro at Eurasia Group. Former RAND China Research Center, Senior Geo-Economics Analyst at Bloomberg, CSIS, DNIO for Economic Issues at NIC, and CIA. All views my own.

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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 31/10/2025
If you want more hot takes on China's 15th Five-Year Plan, here you go! I joined my RAND Europe colleague @fraghi.bsky.social on her "Geoeconomic Competition" podcast. open.spotify.com/episode/3zFd...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/10/2025
Over the past few years, Beijing has been mirroring the U.S. economic-security toolkit. China is developing its own architecture to manage risk, preserve chokepoints, and respond in kind. It's also learning from the United States.
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Bartapest @bartapest.bsky.social · 23/09/2025
Four-fifths of China’s lost exports to the US have already found alternative markets in the second quarter, the top destinations being Southeast Asia and Europe: www.hinrichfoundation.com/research/art... @gdp1985.bsky.social #trade
hinrichfoundation.com
China goes to (trade) war
Eighty-two percent of China’s lost exports to the US found alternative markets in Southeast Asia and Europe, a diversion that likely benefited from Beijing’s policy support.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 21/09/2025
In my CLM piece, I argue that PRC exporters have found new markets for ~80% of their lost exports to the US and transshipment is low. I updated those figures to include July data. The conclusion is the same. To the extent there is transshipment, it's mostly via SE Asia.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 01/09/2025
In the latest China Leadership Monitor, I offer some thoughts on China's economy in the trade war. Lots of charts! www.prcleader.org/post/changin...
prcleader.org
Changing Course in a Storm: China’s Economy in the Trade War | China Leadership Monitor
China is weathering deflation, a property-sector collapse, and renewed trade tensions with the United States through calculated restraint rather than panic. Exports remain resilient via market diversi...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
China nerds, rejoice! The Relevant Organs is back and on here. Follow them for all the news you need. @relevantorgans.bsky.social
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 20/07/2025
Facing U.S. tariffs, China’s exports to the U.S. are down—while exports to Southeast Asia are up. Is that trade diversion and potential transshipment? My estimate: at most 34% of the increased PRC exports to SE Asia in Q2 could reflect trade diverted from the United States.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/06/2025
The US and China have a new framework to de-escalate. Whether that'll be durable is unclear. What is clear is that China can and will weaponize its export dominance. We discuss what the trade war teaches us about China's economy in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Finbarr Bermingham @fbermingham.bsky.social · 21/05/2025
I'll be on a stellar panel this evening discussing the resilience of China's economy. I'll be providing the view from Europe. With the excellent Jude Blanchette, @fraghi.bsky.social @gdp1985.bsky.social - for fans of imposter syndrome, this is not to be missed! www.rand.org/randeurope/a...
rand.org
How Resilient Is China’s Economy?
Have decades of economic planning rendered China’s economy more resilient to external shocks? RAND Europe aims to address this critical question by convening leading experts who will delve into the st...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 18/04/2025
The Trump administration is trying to reindustrialize with tariffs, especially on China. But China has lessons to teach the US about industrial strategy. A new RAND Commentary with @fraghi.bsky.social and Benjamin Lenain. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
I would interpret the US tariff exemptions primarily as an attempt to mitigate the impact on electronics and consumers more than as a signal of a US-China deal. The exempted categories cover about 22% of US imports from China. content.govdelivery.com/bulletins/gd...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 30/03/2025
Which US industries are most exposed to the China market? Looking at US majority-owned foreign affiliates, the answer is wholesale trade, computers & electronics, chemicals & pharma, autos, and semiconductors. This could matter for US-China talks and potential PRC retaliation to US tariffs.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 26/03/2025
Taiwan is nervous. With good reason. Jude Blanchette and I discuss in our new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 16/03/2025
China's total fiscal deficit is set to increase by at least 2 percentage points of GDP in 2025. That's maybe not the massive stimulus some wanted, but it's not small either. The question is the composition and effectiveness of the measures.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 04/03/2025
China's retaliation to the new 20% US tariffs: - 10-15% tariffs on US ag imports - 10 US firms on Unreliable Entities List - 15 US firms on export control list (Illumina maybe most affected) - No product-specific export controls Less than proportional response.
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Simon Lester @simonlester.com · 01/03/2025
This is a strong possibility.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 27/02/2025
China/BRI nerds, does anyone know if MOFCOM expanded the countries it counts as BRI in its stats? Is there a list by year? Reported BRI projects and investment surged in 2023. Is this due to categorization?
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 24/02/2025
China Econ and Trade nerds, apply to this!
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 23/02/2025
I meant "slowdown" in terms of GDP growth *rates*. But if you want *absolute* GDP growth for China and the US, here you go! Whether one uses nominal growth at market exchange rates, real growth at fixed exchange rates, or nominal growth at PPP exchange rates makes a difference.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Two narratives about China's economy: - Macro weakness - Technological and industrial strength They're both true! How? The "new economy" is a small share of the overall economy. I discuss in a new RAND Commentary. www.rand.org/pubs/comment...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 17/02/2025
When in Taipei... Perfect broth. NTD 200 ($6). 😋
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 06/02/2025
Excellent Baiguan piece on 🇨🇳 youth unemployment with data and stories. This reminds me of the "skills mismatch" debate after the US Great Recession. People said the problem was poor or incorrect training or education. Others said it was just a demand problem. 1/ open.substack.com/pub/baiguan/...
open.substack.com
Four stories of Chinese youth breaking through high unemployment
Youth unemployment has emerged as a pressing social issue in China.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 02/02/2025
There's a tension between Trump's emergent desire for a clear US sphere of influence in the Americas and his opposition to those economies being integrated with the US. 🤔
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Tertiary industry (services) account for most of China's GDP growth, although manufacturing increased in importance in 2024. I need to find a way to invest in China's "other" sector. It remains the tertiary industry star...
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Daniel McDowell @danielmcdowell.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
Some thoughts on e-CNY and RMB internationalization (replying to @gdp1985.bsky.social's post: bsky.app/profile/gdp1...)
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
This report emphasizes the importance of Gulf countries "recycling" their petrodollar surpluses. The petroyuan could end these benefits for the US, it says. But Gulf surpluses with AEs (USD bloc) were far larger in GDP terms during the heyday of the petrodollar than with China today.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 19/01/2025
This is excellent. But I'm tripping up over this. e-CNY doesn't pay interest. Users will want other RMB assets. "Smart capital controls" could work. But would foreign investors then want more RMB bonds? Cash balances are only a small part of the global capital story. asiasociety.org/policy-insti...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 18/01/2025
What's going on with China's real estate statistics? NBS reports a recovery in the real estate component of GDP in Q4 2024. But other indicators suggest continuing contraction, except a slight recovery in sales. Trying to figure out how China nailed its 5.00% GDP growth target...
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 14/01/2025
What are the best research papers on Chinese industrial policy in recent years? Please send links.
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Mark Parker Young @markparkeryoung.bsky.social · 07/01/2025
Xi Jinping's single most interesting diplomatic interaction caught on video was with Justin Trudeau in 2022. Unique glimpse of Xi's approach and style in a challenging situation. This was not a favorable setting for Xi and he didn't want to actually engage, he just wanted youtu.be/4YkzzhI2EoI
youtu.be
Xi Jinping confronts Justin Trudeau at G20 over 'leaked' conversation details
YouTube video by Guardian News
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 06/01/2025
UPDATE: Today is my first day at RAND's new China Research Center. I look forward to working with Jude Blanchette to expand RAND's research into new areas, especially relating to China's economy and US-China economic competition.
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Rhodes Cartography @thinkinginspace.bsky.social · 04/01/2025
Just published an article that is, unusually, not mainly about maps. I've been working on a book on this subject for many years-- Naval History was kind enough to publish this piece on one aspect of the story of Alexander Macomb Mason. And there are still a few maps. www.usni.org/magazines/na...
usni.org
Forgotten American Innovator
From the Confederate coast to South America to Egypt, the adventurous Alexander Macomb Mason carried his mine-warfare expertise far and wide during the 1800s.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
This was Caturday
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 05/01/2025
I'd like to get an EV. But I live in DC. Seems like charging EVs in cities isn't practical and that the "home chargers" I'm reading about assume you live in the suburbs. Sad.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 03/01/2025
Amazing
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 01/01/2025
The military dimension can't be ignored. If the US defends Taiwan, the econ disruptions will be automatic and sanctions will be politically inevitable. If the US doesn't defend Taiwan, it's not clear why the US should/could lead some anti China economic coalition. www.nytimes.com/2024/12/31/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | A China-Taiwan War Would Start an Economic Crisis. America Isn’t Ready.
Congress must prepare a plan now to avoid global meltdown.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
Beach reading
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 26/12/2024
There are no DC bakeries on this list. But that's because Tatte has 14 (going on 40) locations in the area and they'd have to divide the points. If any of these artisanal bakeries moves in on DC, Tatte will crush them. "Croissant quantity has a quality all its own." www.nytimes.com/article/best...
nytimes.com
The Best Bakeries in America
In this golden age of American bakeries, virtuosic pastries and delightful breads are close at hand, from coastal Maine to downtown Los Angeles.
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Penn Project on the Future of U.S.-China Relations @penn-us-china.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
We are delighted to announce the launch of a major new initiative which draws on the approach of the Penn Project in convening, over the next 2 years, leading next generation scholars and experts on China from throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Announcement here: bit.ly/41GUPvh
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 20/12/2024
🚨Today is my last day at Bloomberg. Our GeoEcon team has done fantastic work, with more to come. Bloomberg is a wonderful company, with some of the best journalists, economists, and analysts around. I'm taking the holidays off before my next analytic adventure... 🇺🇸🇨🇳📊💱
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Ilaria Mazzocco @ilariamazzocco.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
It was a pleasure to join @kaiserkuo.bsky.social on his podcast to talk about my research! I’ve been a long time lister and really enjoyed the conversation!
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
I guess the US hasn't been a great naval power since WW2 then... The US only had a comparatively large commercial shipbuilding sector during the war. It hasn't had a large market share since. I wrote about this in April. blinks.bloomberg.com/news/stories... 1/
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 16/12/2024
Yes. And they should open a DTF in DC. It's a strategic necessity. I've been saying this for literally years. ec.ltn.com.tw/amp/article/...
ec.ltn.com.tw
不只矽盾!美智庫訪台PO美食照 讚台擅長做小籠包 - 自由財經
〔財經頻道/綜合報導〕美國智庫「戰略暨國際研究中心」(CSIS)組團訪台,除了會見蔡英文總統外,代表團也對台灣人展現的勇氣及韌性表達敬佩。地緣經濟計畫主任狄匹柏(Gerard DiPippo)還
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Mark Parker Young @markparkeryoung.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
There's a high bar for concluding that a specific work has influenced Xi because there's so little credible information about his thought process. For example, this op-ed takes official media statements about Xi at face value, when they should instead be thought of www.nytimes.com/2024/12/15/o...
nytimes.com
Opinion | This Unreadable Russian Novel Drives Xi’s Struggle Against America
The Chinese leader is digging into the language of revolution, and a radical Russian novel, as he prepares for battle with Donald Trump.
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Rhodes Cartography @thinkinginspace.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
As commanded by @gdp1985.bsky.social. A new variant, free of national borders. Ready for your geoeconomic scribblings. Ready to print at standard 18x24 size. Open to debates about what to put in the long horizontal at top.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 15/12/2024
Almost done with this on Audible. Summary: "[x] attacked [y] with [numerical advantage/no reserves] and suffered [awful/catastrophic/irreplaceable] losses for a gain of [10 km/100 m/nothing]." That 50x. Plus a handful of actual breakthroughs over 4 years. But more movement than the Western front!
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 13/12/2024
Imposing export controls on commodities without allies is hard. There are limits to what export controls can do, particularly if the country doesn't control the IP or have overseas enforcement capacity. Markets find a way. China will learn this.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
China's top economic tasks for 2025: 1. Boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand. 2. Lead new productive forces with tech innovation and build a modern industrial system (industrial policy). 3. Advance economic reforms. www.news.cn/politics/lea...
news.cn
中央经济工作会议在北京举行 习近平发表重要讲话-新华网
中央经济工作会议在北京举行 习近平发表重要讲话-
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Kaiser Kuo 郭怡廣 @kaiserkuo.bsky.social · 12/12/2024
This week on the Sinica Podcast, I chat with the brilliant @ilariamazzocco.bsky.social of @csis.org about her extensive work on the Chinese EV sector and industrial policy. Listen here: www.sinicapodcast.com/p/chinas-ev-...
sinicapodcast.com
China's EV Explosion, with Ilaria Mazzocco of CSIS
China's rapid surge in electric vehicle manufacturing, adoption, and export has variously encouraged, delighted, impressed, frightened, and even enraged people around the world.
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Gerard DiPippo @gdp1985.bsky.social · 07/12/2024
An artsy submission for Caturday.
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