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All time high real 30s (TIPS)

0218

US and Iran discuss phased deal to reopen Hormuz and end US blockade, sources say

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It's about the front end now. The uncertainty is the Fed path.

151

Removal of forward guidance was bound to have a few hiccups as leveraged types like dealers, HFs, locals etc adjusted to the new Fed. Feels like USTs are in a great place now with a good does of uncertainty premium built across the curve.

1211

In my framing QE era was the "odd" times. We are going back to the old normal.

Apparently, UST 30s at highest yield since 2004

5163

I think 5s and in are great buys for real money. They naturally derisk over time. For leveraged guys I like 2s on the curve vs 5s

020

5s had been bizarrely rich at the beginning of the tightening cycle but now making a new low on the broad curve. 2s5s also 5 bps steeper than earlier before the auction

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More detail on funding pemium www.kansascityfed.org/research/eco...

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www.kansascityfed.org/research/eco...

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KC Fed had an estimate for this for the QE era. I will double check but I think they pegged a 1.5% due to Fed QE

SOFR swap spreads is a good proxy for the US Treasury's funding premium. Supply is obviously a secondary factor to path of short rates but it is defintely a driver.

121

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 22/09/2026

Forward curve nicely inverted with 1Y1Y now above 5.20

0144

Meanwhile, hike odds next six months mostly tossups with SEP FOMC meetings slightly higher odds.

051

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 22/09/2026

It has been a dramatic cheapening of 2s since CPI. Looking to see if there will be any reprieve after today's auction. With 1-year forward 2s eyeballing 5% would expect some interest from real money.

192

We all have different risk profiles so it doesn't make sense for me to spell out my actual trades. If you trade front end USTs and SOFR futures, you will know where to look

051

Actually sounds dovish given price action :)

051

Good trades aren't spread evenly in time. So you need to step up when good ones are there. This is one of those times in USTs/SR3s.

3181

One of the street's fav trades paying off. 5y swap spreads at the widest level since earlier this year

091

Important for peeps trading SR1s and SR3s. There are significant leveraged shorts that help increase cash in the system vs collateral

121

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18/09/2026

Overnight SOFR a bit soft since the rate hike. vs EFFR

161

1-year forward 2s topping 5%

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17/09/2026

10Y TIPS reopening auction today sporting the highest yield since 2008. 10s were the first TIPS tenor issued in '97 and it was an inauspicious start as the yield kept surging into Y2K

1171

5% front end in a year's time

0190

Long run dot a tick higher to 3.2

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I am not necessarily suggesting its one and done. I just think it would make sense to skip the Oct meeting and then go in Dec

They don't only move once?

110

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15/09/2026

I know we're all stoked for today's rate hike but it's not too early to start obsessing about the Oct FOMC and hike odds then just before an historic midterm election. Current odds seems a bit high to me but we'll see how it responds to FOMC and presser later today

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Meant as a trading comment for tomorrow's decision. No doubt future inflation/labor data and fiscal/trade/geopolitcs will be dominant drivers going forward