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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 02/10/2026

All you need to know about the labor market. AHE

Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 01/10/2026

Interesting that the 1-year forward curve is now uninverted again. Front end still a bit flat but overall a normal times curve which suggests neutral rate most likely much higher than what Fed thinks or admits

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 01/10/2026

Steepening trend continuing after last week's front-end puke out. 5s30s now 21 bps steeper. And 2s5s 15 bps steeper.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 30/09/2026

Oct pricing after Williams

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 29/09/2026

CB labor market gauge another cycle low

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

All time high real 30s (TIPS)

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

It's about the front end now. The uncertainty is the Fed path.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 24/09/2026

Apparently, UST 30s at highest yield since 2004

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 23/09/2026

5s had been bizarrely rich at the beginning of the tightening cycle but now making a new low on the broad curve. 2s5s also 5 bps steeper than earlier before the auction

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 23/09/2026

Forward curve nicely inverted with 1Y1Y now above 5.20

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 22/09/2026

Meanwhile, hike odds next six months mostly tossups with SEP FOMC meetings slightly higher odds.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 21/09/2026

One of the street's fav trades paying off. 5y swap spreads at the widest level since earlier this year

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 21/09/2026

Overnight SOFR a bit soft since the rate hike. vs EFFR

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18/09/2026

1-year forward 2s topping 5%

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17/09/2026

10Y TIPS reopening auction today sporting the highest yield since 2008. 10s were the first TIPS tenor issued in '97 and it was an inauspicious start as the yield kept surging into Y2K

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16/09/2026

5% front end in a year's time

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 16/09/2026

I know we're all stoked for today's rate hike but it's not too early to start obsessing about the Oct FOMC and hike odds then just before an historic midterm election. Current odds seems a bit high to me but we'll see how it responds to FOMC and presser later today

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15/09/2026

OOPS wrong chart. 30y TIPS

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 15/09/2026

New cycle high for real 30s above 3.11%

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

UST 5s has been under tremendous pressure since NFP and is now the cheapest it has been on the broad curve since early 2025.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

Rate path using SR3s now vs before the start of the Iran conflict

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

1-year forward 2s5s down to 2 bps

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/09/2026

Dramatic flattening of the forward curve while I was gone. Out to 5s on the verge of inversion.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 03/09/2026

ISM services employment gauge under 50 again

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 02/09/2026

Investment grade Yield-To-Worst index is now at year-to-date highs. Some issuers may decide to back off if funding costs continue to rise

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 01/09/2026

New month. More bond sales

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 28/08/2026

I think Warsh is happy with market's reaction today. While rate path repriced higher, Sept odds remain in the pre-speech tossup range

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 18/08/2026

Regular reminder there is nothing that unusual about current long-end pricing. Yield spread to overnight rates through thick and thin have averaged higher than they are currently. Yes, it's a stunning reversal from QE/ZIRP negative real rates, but this is just old normal stuff

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 17/08/2026

Building some nice carry across the UST curve with all coupon yields significantly higher than overnight rates. Of course, more enticing now with only 23 bps of hikes priced for the remainder of 2026

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 14/08/2026

Curve-wide steepening as 2s30s surges above 110 bps. Hike odds keep tracking lower

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 13/08/2026

Some soft (ish) inflation prints and 5s30s keeps trucking higher and now exceeding 90 bps. We had a kiss goodbye at 70 bps in late July

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 13/08/2026

May SPooz higher. Mar SPoox lower. I am not exactly sure when they do the calc for each month

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 13/08/2026

Somewhat tough mapping into PCE even if you ignore Portfolio management

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 12/08/2026

Sept hike odds edge lower but holding relatively firm after as expected CPI

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 12/08/2026

As most are aware, PCE vs CPI wedge has flipped dramatically in the past year as diverging inflation dynamics (AI related higher, housing related lower) have pushed core PCE to its highest reading vs CPI since 2010.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 05/08/2026

ISM Services Employment gauge back down below 50 again

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 04/08/2026

This is the longest stretch UST 30s (long bond) has been above 5% since 2007. What a shame if we waste this breakout without a 5.5% print

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 02/08/2026

FWIW the most popular measure of UST term premium, Adrian-Crump-Moench, is 13 bps higher since the FOMC decision.

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 01/08/2026

Guess who said this? No it wasn't Warsh but it is a current Fed official

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 31/07/2026

US Treasury considering deploying TGA in the repo market..... via Bloomberg

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 31/07/2026

Treasury started issuing 30y TIPS in early 2000s. Before that you had figure out reals by backing out inflation projections. Here is my attempt at doing that using economists inflation forecasts

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 31/07/2026

Private wages down to 3.1% YoY

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Ed Bradford @fullcarry.net · 30/07/2026

Benign YoY Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE

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