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Firthermor

@firthermor.bsky.social
1K followers 2.5K following 8.7K posts

Mid-Atlantic nature. Natural world. Photography. Plays with words. Grovers Mill Martian invasion survivor 😉. Popular sovereignty, voting rights, democracy, and good governance stan.

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Reposted by Firthermor
Chris Geidner @chrisgeidner.bsky.social · 4h
NEW: SCOTUS allows third-country removals to resume, as lower courts close in on Trump’s lawlessness. A split-screen of the Supreme Court allowing Trump to expand his authoritarian efforts as appeals courts are increasingly supporting district courts’ accountability efforts. Tonight, at Law Dork:
lawdork.com
SCOTUS allows third-country removals to resume, as lower courts close in on Trump’s lawlessness
A split-screen of the Supreme Court allowing Trump to expand his authoritarian efforts as appeals courts are increasingly supporting district courts’ accountability efforts.
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c0nc0rdance @c0nc0rdance.bsky.social · 2h
Qingshan Lake Water Forest in Lin'an District, Hangzhou is a viral attraction sometimes called "Matcha Lake" for the emerald green duckweed (subfamily Lemnoideae). These black swans (Cygnus atratus) & their cygnets are enjoying a nutritious buffet of aquatic plants. Let's learn about duckweed.
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Brian Stelter @brianstelter.bsky.social · 2h
Millions of taxpayer dollars have already been spent on Trump's new TV ads, and millions more have been allocated... www.cnn.com/2026/09/29/m...
cnn.com
Trump’s ads have cost taxpayers at least $2.5 million, with funding from Customs and Border Protection | CNN Business
Millions of taxpayer dollars have already been spent on President Donald Trump’s hagiographic ads, according to estimates by a leading political ad-tracking firm. And a total of $20 million has been a...
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Zach Everson @zacheverson.com · 4h
“Patel is apparently planning a trip to Russia, a country that (a) is no friend of the United States nor the FBI specifically and yet (b) is quite friendly with Patel, including via a ‘Russia-linked production company’ that evidently previously paid Patel $25,000 to appear in an anti-FBI TV series.”
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Christopher Webb @cwebbonline.com · 3h
This is priceless. Check out how local news is reporting on Sen Eric Schmidt’s clown-show grilling of Jack Smith. They found Jack Smith at the game… “Top corner, section 109, row 1. In fact, that seat doesn’t even exist in Atlanta.”
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Secrets and Laws @secretsandlaws.bsky.social · 9h
🚨Exclusive🚨: I have exculpatory evidence in what is easily the dumbest congressional oversight episode of the year...maybe the decade. I was at the Iowa v. MD game & just looked at my pics & sure enough, someone who looks like Jack Smith is sitting in Sec 109, Row 1. Complete & total vindication!
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Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"A senior prosecutor working on the so-called grand conspiracy investigation into a wide array of President Trump’s enemies has resigned from the case, adding to the turmoil that has recently plagued the inquiry" On the heels of diGenova's departure. Along with lead FBI agent's departing the team.
nytimes.com
Second Prosecutor Quits Trump’s ‘Grand Conspiracy’ Case
The resignation adds to the setbacks to the most sweeping effort by the Justice Department to fulfill the president’s desire to take revenge against the federal officials who have investigated him.
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Ryan Goodman @rgoodlaw.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"Two of the people said Olsen had become frustrated by pressure from Justice Department officials in Washington to increase the pace of the investigation and secure grand jury indictments. The third person said Olsen left after issues arose with his security clearance."
washingtonpost.com
DOJ probe into Trump foes sees another prominent departure
Kurt Olsen, who previously worked as Trump’s election security czar, resigned from the so-called “grand conspiracy” investigation Monday.
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George Pearkes @peark.es · 4h
Here’s an extremely brief effort to explain why bond yields going up is actually not bad news.
September 28, 2026
Rates. 10y yields briefly traded above 5.2% today, closing up 7 bps on the session. As shown below, they're the farthest from fair value that they've been in some time based on our qualitative model.
Bespoke 10y Yield Fair Value Model: Past Year
5.25
5.00
— 10y Yield (%)
10y Extreme Cheap
9/22/2026, First Fed
hike
4.75
4.50
10y Moderate
Cheap
4.25
4.00
10y Moderate Rich
3.75
3.50
7/25/2023, Last Fed
hike
9/18/2024, First Fed
12/10/2025, Last Fed
cut
cut
10y Extreme Rich
3.25
%
Our model assumes 2% inflation over the long term plus an inflation risk premium (35 bps, to use explicit TIPS pricing). With those values fixed, below we show the implicit growth (including risk premium around growth) forecast from the market given the consensus range of term premium (after backing out some amount off growth risk premium).
Current pricing assumes trend growth above 2% and rising.
Market-Implied Growth + Growth Risk Premium: 5.25% Is The Promised Land
10y UST Yield






Term Premium







-0.4
-0.2

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8

1.2
1.4

3.00
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25
0.05
-0.15
-0.35
-0.55
-0.75

3.25
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50
0.30
0.10
-0.10
-0.30
-0.50

3.50
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75
0.55
0.35
0.15
-0.05
-0.25

3.75
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00
0.80
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.00

4.00
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25
1.05
0.85
0.65
0.45
0.25

4.25
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.30
1.10
0.90
0.70
0.50

4.50
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75
1.55
1.35
1.15
0.95
0.75

4.75
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
1.20
1.00

5.00
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
2.05
1.85
1.65
1.45
1.25

5.25
3.30
3.10
2.90
2.70
2.50
2.30
2.10
1.90
1.70
1.50

5.50
3.55
3.35
3.15
2.95
2.75
2.55
2.35
2.15
1.95
1.75

5.75
3.80
3.60
3.40
3.20
3.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00

6.00
4.05
3.85
3.65
3.45
3.25
3.05
2.85
2.65
2.45
2.25
Range of TP Estimates
Note: Assumes 35 bps inflation risk premium, 2% inflation. Term does not include growth or inflation risk premium.
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ArtButMakeItSports @artbutmakeitsports.bsky.social · 8h
Circus Performers, by Walt Kuhn, 1978, 📸 via @marisakabas.bsky.social
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Anna O. Law @unlawfulentries.bsky.social · 18h
Reread this chapt by Lucy Salyer in the Immigration Stories ed volume. She makes clear the SG Conrad arguing against Chinese birthright citizenship was an unreoconstructed southerner + all arguments about "subject to the jurisdiction" being recycled today appeared post-ratification of the 14th Am.
3. "Wong Kim Ark: The Contest Over Birthright Citizenship" book chapter by Lucy E. Salyer. 

In August 1895, Wong Kim Ark sailed into San Francisco harbor
aboard the steamship Coptic, returning to the city of his birth after a
visit to China. His journey did not end there, however, as Wong Kim
Ark’s right to enter and remain in the United States, the country of his
birth, became embroiled in a fierce legal battle that was not resolved
until the U.S. Supreme Court finally decided in his favor in 1898.! The
legal question was deceptively simple: Under the Fourteenth Amendment,
are all persons born in the United States American citizens? As
one legal commentator at the time noted, the ‘“‘commonly accepted
notion” was that birth conferred citizenship.? The uncommon length of
the attorneys’ briefs and the Court’s divided opinion suggest, however,
that the issue was not so straightforward, especially in an era of growing
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The Mouthy Renegade Writer @mouthyrenegade.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
So Jimmy Kimmel had his wife parody Natalie Harp on his show. She played his unhinged assistant. It was as ridiculously funny as you might imagine.😅
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 14h
Jack Smith: "History teaches that the rule of law is rarely destroyed all at once. It's often weakened by attacks on the institutions and the public servants sworn to uphold it. Since January 2025, we have witnessed precisely such an effort."
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Aaron Rupar @atrupar.com · 13h
holy shit -- turns out Jack Smith went to a Hawkeyes game in Maryland but Schmitt's team is so reckless they concocted a conspiracy theory that Smith was actually in Atlanta seeing a Hawks game and colluding with Fani Willis. Klobuchar points out to Schmitt, "you have your teams wrong."
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Helen Kennedy @helenkennedy.com · 12h
Trump’s new AI website is kinda fun, it turns out.
Can the president use taxpayer funds to air his old campaign ads on TV?

No. Federal appropriations law has long barred using taxpayer funds for political advertising.
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Melissa Murray @profmmurray.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
On @strictscrutiny.bsky.social, we noted that Alito hadn't recused in Suncor (he owns stock in 2 oil companies, & he flew on a PJ owned by someone w interests in one of the companies in the case). He's now recused. . . which likely means there are still 5 votes for Big Oil. tinyurl.com/2425sh73
nytimes.com
Justice Alito Recuses Himself Days Before Major Climate-Change Case (Gift Article)
Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. had faced pressure to recuse himself from the climate case because he owns stock in oil companies.
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Swamp @swampvids.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
"I feel like we have been blessed by the moth gods.” Truly, a heartening piece of news. #teammoth #bugsky 🌿
smh.com.au
After a catastrophic decline bogong moths are back, and naturalists are celebrating
Bogong moths numbers have surged after years of decline, flying evidence of an ancient transfer of vital nutrients from lowlands to the fragile high country.
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Kathy Jones 🍁🇨🇦 @volunteer4birds.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
May - September SwiftWatch  A flexible solo or group activity that can take place any time from dawn till dusk. Counting Chimney Swifts is quick to learn and the birds are delightful to observe. buff.ly/TGBqdUb #Birds #Volunteer for #Science and #Conservation
buff.ly
Birds Canada | SwiftWatch
A flexible solo or group activity that can take place any time from dawn till dusk. Counting Chimney Swifts is quick to learn and the birds are delightful…
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Darin Self @darinself.com · 28/09/2026
The mayor of Ithaca (my friend and former fellow PhD candidate in Government at Cornell) announces a moratorium on permitting Greek Life activities until Cornell produces new standards of addressing sexual assault.
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nick @unionnick.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
On the *same day* the Cornell Seven drugged and raped Jane Doe, Cornell banned four students (including the President of Cornell JVP) from campus for three years for nonviolent, pro-Palestine protests. The same Cornell officials let the rapists off with apology essays.
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Craig Pittman @craigtimes.bsky.social · 29/09/2026
Uh-oh, the Fuzzy Caterpillar of Pain has returned to #Florida. Whatever you do, DON'T TOUCH IT! www.clickorlando.com/insider/2026...
clickorlando.com
🐛Southern flannel moth caterpillar: The fuzzy Florida caterpillar that stings
In this episode of Everyday Wild, we explain how to identify Megalopyge opercularis, where it lives, what it becomes, why it is often found on oak, elm, and citrus trees, and what to do if you acciden...
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ringwiss @ringwiss.bsky.social · 16/09/2026
If the House adjourns before whatever time the speaker designates for consideration of the resolution, the rules provide no remedy for that; you have to start all over again. (Remember that by designating a ‘district work period’, the speaker can adjourn the House unilaterally.)
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Radley Balko @radleybalko.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Not sure it’s tenable if, going forward, every president knows that so long as they have firm control over DOJ, enough loyal senators to avoid removal, and are willing to issue blanket pardons on the way out, they can break any law they please while in office.
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ryan cooper @ryanlcooper.com · 28/09/2026
"it certainly sounds like the US government through the DFC is being used leverage a deal for business pals of the Trump family." talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/us-ta...
talkingpointsmemo.com
US Tax Dollars Now Used to Secure Deals for Trump Family Cronies
This has gotten very little attention, as far as I can tell....
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emptywheel @emptywheel.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
I try to explain to people how Trump has used his trolls for years to direct attention. @atrupar.com focus, first, on Trump's decaying right hand and now on Natalie is an example of what the left needs to do more of. [And subscribe to @atrupar.com.]
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gamera obscura @ohrobin.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Google earth has updated its satellite images of Gaza. The destruction is almost incomprehensible.
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Sophie Carr @sophiecarr.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Here are some lovely Icelandic horses in the snow :) #Iceland #Horses #AwesomeFoursome
Blonde and red horse (not the technical name for the colour). Very white mane blowing in the wind with some soft light coming in from the right. Snow behind.Profile of a brown horse looking rather peaceful. White snow behind.Red horse with blonde mane, profile photo, with snow behind and a tiny bit of snow on the horse's chin bristles.Brown and red horses with snow on them and snow visibly falling on them.
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jamelle @jamellebouie.net · 28/09/2026
this is legitimately very funny
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Shweta Chawla @sccs1300.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Here's a Coppersmith Barbet today's #BirdOfTheDay theme of #BokeyBirds #India #NaturePhotography #urbanforests #Canon
A coppersmith barbet with vibrant green, yellow, and red plumage perched on a slender branch of the Peepal tree with pale, heart-shaped leaves against a soft, blurred green background.
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ProPublica @propublica.org · 28/09/2026
1/ On @lastweektonight.com, John Oliver cited our reporting w/ @texastribune.org about how Ken Paxton appeared to have violated Texas law. Paxton used an address where his estranged wife said he no longer lived while voting in 6 elections in the past 2 years: www.propublica.org/article/ken-...
John Oliver (on right) gestures with his hands as he speaks. On left, a Texas Tribune headline from July 7, 2026 reads: “Ken Paxton vowed to crack down on 'illegal voting.' He may have violated Texas election law.” An article excerpt below says: "... appears to have used an address where he did not live while voting in six elections ...”
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Teddy Amenabar @teddyamen.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The Trump administration initially floated an idea that would have virtually shut down mail voting: Requiring voters to be home and sign for delivery of their ballots through certified mail. www.propublica.org/article/trum...
propublica.org
The Untold Origins of Trump’s Plan to Sharply Restrict Mail-In Voting
ProPublica’s reporting reveals for the first time the extent of the White House’s role in trying to dictate how mail-in ballots are processed, spurring behind-the-scenes drama that played out for near...
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David Shiffman, Ph.D. 🦈 @whysharksmatter.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Whelp. After 15 years of me saying “every shark swimming through a flooded city street after a storm photo on social media is fake,” we may finally have a real one. I’m awaiting confirmation from folks with better eyes than mine. abcnews.com/video/136803...
abcnews.com
Shark spotted in New Jersey floodwaters during nor'easter
A dogfish shark was spotted swimming through floodwaters in Surf City, New Jersey, heading up a resident's driveway and then toward Barnegat Bay on Saturday.
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Hansi Lo Wang (he/him) @hansilowang.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Eligible voters, time's running out for registering to vote or updating your registration for the midterms. Fri, 10/2 — SOUTH CAROLINA — in-person (10/4 online, 10/5 mail) Sat, 10/3 — U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS — in-person (10/4 online) Sun, 10/4 — ALASKA Sun, 10/4 — RHODE ISLAND More at npr.org/vote
npr.org
How to register to vote and check your registration status
For the 2026 elections, NPR has collected deadlines and information on how to register to vote — online, in person or by mail — in every U.S. state and territory.
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Seth Cotlar @sethcotlar.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Here’s Chris Rufo and his podcast co-host addressing “the Indian question,” a reference to “the Jewish question.” That question was whether Jews could be incorporated into European society, and the Nazis were the ones who claimed to have developed the “final solution” to that “problem.”
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Brian ☀️🌏🌘 @balail.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Reddish Egret with a Mullet... #photography #naturephotography #wildlifephotography #thelittlethings
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Alex Sauerbrunn @birdsbyalex.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
The 2026-2027 Winter Finch Forecast is out! 🪶
finchnetwork.org
Winter Finch Forecast 2026-2027 - FINCH RESEARCH NETWORK
By Tyler Hoar: Cover Photo of Dancing Crossbills by Jamie Sylvan– GENERAL FORECAST: Last year was a bit of a mixed bag for boreal irruptions, but it was a solid flight year here in the Read More
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Will Bunch @willbunch.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
You wouldn't know it from reading the headlines, but the president's downward mental health spiral is the biggest story in America right now We won't salvage democracy unless the media and pols start speaking the truth about Trump's damaged mind My new column www.inquirer.com/opinion/trum...
inquirer.com
We need to find the words for Trump’s madness before things blow up | Will Bunch
The media and politicians haven’t pinned down anything resembling a suitable description for a president’s downward spiral or the looming battle for U.S. democracy.
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Kilian Schönberger @kilianschoenberger.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Alice in Wonderland A beautiful small scale world hidden in the forest. Mushroom wonderland. Bavaria, Germany #landscapephotography #landschaftsfotografie #mushrooms
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Just Security @justsecurity.org · 28/09/2026
Even if the jury were to acquit him, the U.S. military could still continue to hold the suspect in the USS Cole bombing case indefinitely. Carol Rosenberg reports: www.justsecurity.org/158987/guant...
justsecurity.org
Guantanamo Dispatch: Innocent or Guilty, Accused USS Cole Bomber May Never Go Free
Even if the jury were to acquit him, the U.S. military could still continue to hold the suspect in the USS Cole bombing case indefinitely.
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
New, from me: Once memory-holed, DOGE is now the subject of revisionism. To better understand why DOGE failed, I talked to people in the civic tech movement that DOGE displaced, who continue to offer the alternative model for how to modernize govt. 🧵 donmoynihan.substack.com/p/doge-vs-ci...
donmoynihan.substack.com
DOGE vs. Civic Tech
As DOGE revisionism picks up, a contrast with the civic tech movement it displaced illuminates its failure
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Brett "Solidarity 2026" Banditelli @banditelli.org · 27/09/2026
SUPER excited for this, after a year of chasing the angle, 30 minutes of waddling around up and down a parking garage, and over 6 hours of editing: A murder of crows flies towards the camera, in front of the full Moon, set to Blind Guardian's "Nightfall" and the sound of the crows themselves. 🪶 🐦‍⬛
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Don Moynihan @donmoyn.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
The fact that this was *previously used as a campaign ad during the presidential campaign* removes any real defense as to its purpose. Its not a public service announcement. Its a campaign ad that has become state propaganda.
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Clara Jeffery @clarajeffery.bsky.social · 28/09/2026
Maybe something big is about to drop but I find it odd that the NYT, which was one of the absolute leaders in #MeTop coverage has yet to weigh in on the Cornell case. Also, I would caution that while it sure seems like administrators didn’t do enough here, we don’t know which ones or why.
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Carl Zimmer @carlzimmer.com · 27/09/2026
Four days ago, a scientist was surprised by the news that Anthropic discovered new virus genes for making DNA. He says he’s been studying them for years—and feeding his data to Anthropic’s AI as part of his own research. Coincidence? Here’s my story. nyti.ms/3VSWayc
nyti.ms
Did Anthropic’s A.I. Really Make a Scientific Discovery on Its Own? (Gift Article)
An expert at the University of Copenhagen said his team had been sharing its research with the company’s A.I. model, Claude, and that its new finding matched their work.
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Mike Boylan-Kolchin @mbkplus.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Once again, I gotta say: you cannot treat anything you’re feeding into an AI as anonymous. There are enormous ethics implications for, e.g. referees who are clearly uploading others’ unpublished papers without consent, let alone health care professionals or law enforcement
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Scott Lemieux @lemieuxlgm.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
Using taxpayer money for this C-tier fash shit is appalling in principle, and it's disgraceful that regime-aligned networks are taking the money. But as political tactics this ad is amazingly stupid. "This election should be a referendum on whether Trump has been able to end the wars" OK!
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Amy Fried @asfried.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
#mepolitics Check out what's been done with susancollinsforsenate.com!
susancollinsforsenate.com
Bribe Susan Collins yourself*
*Kidding. See what the FBI was investigating — before Trump's FBI shut it down.
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Timothy Keeney @timothykeeneyphotography.com · 27/09/2026
I had visited Hraunfossar a few times before - but never in fall - and all I can say is "wow". The autumn yellows and reds take this place to another level of beauty. #timothykeeneyphotography #photography #landscapephotography
Small birch trees with their foliage in autumn yellow sit above a brown rock face with many small threads of water spilling from it into a turquoise-colored river below.
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eddiephotos.bsky.social @eddiephotos.bsky.social · 27/09/2026
#SundayYellow #Butterflies #Pollinators A female common blue butterfly nectaring on yellow ragwort during the summer time.
#SundayYellow #Butterflies #Pollinators  A female common blue butterfly nectaring on yellow ragwort from the summer time.
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Steve Waycott Wildlife Photography 🍁 @stevewaycott.bsky.social · 23/09/2026
Another look at a Common Nighthawk performing its aerial acrobatics in pursuit of flying insects at dusk. Hanwell, #NewBrunswick, Canada August 2026 📷 #birds #CONI #nature #wildlife #photography #Nikon #Z9 #Nikkor800pf
A medium sized brown mottled bird with white bands near the ends of its wings is flying past from right to left with wings outstretched in front of out of focus green trees.
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