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Fabian Pape

@fabianpape.bsky.social
133 followers 186 following 14 posts

Leverhulme ECF at University of Edinburgh | Political economy and critical macrofinance | Studying the US Treasury market

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Reposted by Fabian Pape
Manuela Moschella @manuelamoschella.bsky.social · 03/05/2026
War → energy shock → inflation. This time: Iran. But we saw this already after Russia invaded Ukraine. Back then, the shock ignited some big debates on monetary autonomy and dollar dominance In a new paper w/@palmapolyak.bsky.social we go back to that moment. A short thread👇
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Hannes Baumann @hannesbaumann.bsky.social · 12/01/2026
Got round to reading this useful summary of the state of dollar dominance: @fabianpape.bsky.social @johannespetry.bsky.social & Pforr predict a "financial interregnum" as Trump erodes trust in the hegemon. Notable for Mideast watchers: Gulf states feature heavily! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
cambridge.org
Dollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Dollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump - Volume 79 Issue S1
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Cambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 14/12/2025
Based on their recent @iojournal.bsky.social article Tobias Pforr, @fabianpape.bsky.social & @johannespetry.bsky.social, wrote a short piece for @theconversation.con about the future of the dollar - cup.org/48E2cW9
theconversation.com
Is the dominance of the US dollar unravelling under Trump?
The erosion of trust in the US as the steward of the liberal international order should be taken seriously.
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Ilias Alami @iliasalami.bsky.social · 20/11/2025
New essay, written for the excellent @transitionsec.bsky.social Propelled by the climatic and hegemonic transitions, military-imperial forms of state capitalism are confiscating our collective right to a safe, green, tech-powered future. transitionsecurity.org/imperial-sta... @campolis.bsky.social
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Jan Fichtner @janfichtner.bsky.social · 30/10/2025
🚨New publication with Kristijan Kotarski: Enduring Structural Power? Assessing the Dominance of the Anglosphere in Global Finance Before the Trump Turn Includes novel visualizations of global finance (banking, portfolio inv & FDI) showing persistent US centrality hrcak.srce.hr/clanak/487488
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Albert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 01/08/2025
"The AI infrastructure build-out is so gigantic that in the past 6 months, it contributed more to the growth of the U.S. economy than /all of consumer spending/" - @mims.bsky.social My takeway is that The US has gone ALL IN BET OF THE 21st Century on AI, while China has gone all in on green tech
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 21/07/2025
The FT got an ex-central banker to write a defence of cb independence. amazing how spectre of fiscal dominance spooks Haldane into forgetting innovations in central banking he literally introduced during the crisis, like sovereign market market of last resort www.ft.com/content/2372...
ft.com
‘Fiscal populism’ is coming for central banks
When monetary policy is set to meet government budgetary needs, these institutions become piggy banks
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Monica DiLeo @monicadileo.bsky.social · 30/05/2025
New (open access!) paper out now with Eric Helleiner and Hongying Wang in New Political Economy: "A less reluctant (green) Atlas? Explaining the People’s Bank of China’s distinctive environmental shift" 1/ A brief thread 🧵 doi.org/10.1080/1356...
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 23/04/2025
journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10....
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Will Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 20/04/2025
Great essay on the madness of the "dead internet" and AI slop, drawing on @maxread.info www.ft.com/content/5d06...
ft.com
Welcome to slop world: how the hostile internet is driving us crazy
The last bits of fellowship and ingenuity on the web are being swept away by a tide of so-called artificial intelligence
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 16/04/2025
European car executives never miss a chance to denounce climate regulation, even when it's well known China ALSO imposed such rules on its own industry. No guys, it was your complacent asses.
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Luca Tiratelli @lucatiratelli.bsky.social · 15/04/2025
Higher ed is the most geographically distributed major growth-generating sector we have. The destruction of universities makes no sense if your priorities are growth, or rebalancing the economy. Only ideological prejudice explains this course of action. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...
theguardian.com
To understand this government, look at who it bailed out – and the flailing UK sector it didn’t | Gaby Hinsliff
Universities, a key plank of our economy, face a bonfire of jobs. But are they the jobs Starmer wants to be seen to be saving, asks Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff
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Rachel Coldicutt @rachelcoldicutt.bsky.social · 12/04/2025
Quite wonderful find by this FT team. A Chinese small business that makes MAGA merch on.ft.com/4cAH6tE
While many Chinese businesses are reeling from the trade war, Qi, the Maga merchandise maker, brushed off any suggestion his might suffer.
Trump supporters, he said, were willing to pay any price for items bearing the image of their beloved president - and US suppliers were making such a huge profit on them that they could afford to partially absorb the tariff impact.
A Trump baseball cap, for instance, cost only Rmb7.50 ($1) to produce. Tariffs might raise that cost to Rmbo, but the caps were being sold for $50 in the US.
"American sellers could even use the tariffs as an excuse to raise the price to $60 - yet the extra cost will still be borne by the US consumers,
" said Qi.
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
Maybe of interest to @adamtooze.bsky.social that FOMC members already complained about 'fan-fi' after the 2019 repo spike (from Oct 4, 2019 meeting)
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
It's that time of crisis again where Adam Tooze enters his relentless live-blogging phase
adamtooze.substack.com
Chartbook 370: Is a "Treasury market unwind" in progress? Wednesday morning and the overnight fin-fi panic. (Part 2)
A specter is stalking global financial markets.
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
My contrarian take is that swap lines are entirely overhyped. they offer Europeans (and some others) preferential terms of dollar borrowing in crises. without swap lines, the ECB etc can use the FIMA repo facility like everyone else.
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Iñaki Aldasoro @aldasoro.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
“Everyone is worried about the basis trade” Check this great article in hedge funds by Paul. Among other things it uses an update to our article www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/... (check update here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....), linking MMF to hedge funds’ basis trade through sponsored repo 1/
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Erin Lockwood @erinkaylockwood.bsky.social · 09/04/2025
In his 2021 NPE article on swap lines, @fabianpape.bsky.social points not only to their backstopping/stabilizing function, but also their use as a lever of US monetary policy to intervene in offshore dollar markets and pull global capital back to the US. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
tandfonline.com
Governing Global Liquidity: Federal Reserve Swap Lines and the International Dimension of US Monetary Policy
Since the use of swap lines during the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve is widely seen as international lender of last resort. Yet the focus on emergency liquidity assistance tends to o...
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Jo Michell @jomichell.bsky.social · 27/03/2025
Strongly agree with this.
The main reason why it is wrong to react to lower tax forecasts by cutting payments to people with disabilities, and substantially increasing poverty as a result, is because of the political choice it reflects. The Chancellor is not having to make these cuts because otherwise she would not meet her fiscal rules. She is making these cuts because she has chosen to use this method rather than the many others available to her to meet those rules. In particular, she has chosen to increase hardship and poverty for some of the most vulnerable people in society rather than raise taxes on those who can easily afford it. To do this yesterday did not represent an adult and responsible fiscal policy.
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 24/03/2025
The Labour government, with a majority in Parliament, is apparently planning to redistribute from the disabled to US Big Tech. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...
theguardian.com
Starmer is warned against ‘appeasing’ Trump with tax cut for US tech firms
Labour MP and Lib Dem leader express concern social media companies could be let off hook just as benefits are cut
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Steven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 25/03/2025
European officials beginning to wargame what it would look like if the Fed pulled their swaps under political pressure. The Fed got the State Dept's OK for each of its swap lines in 2008, particularly important for EM ones. Unclear tho if it'd pull one of the standing ones from Europe, Japan, etc.
reuters.com
Exclusive: Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under Trump
Some European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said, casting some doubt over what has been a bedrock of financial stability.
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Jeremy Gilbert @jemgilbert.bsky.social · 21/03/2025
I can't help noticing that Labour promised not to introduce a wealth tax and not to return to austerity and that only one of those promises has been kept.
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Robert Falkner @robertfalkner.bsky.social · 18/03/2025
Badenoch is to end the UK's bipartisan consensus on climate policy. She is ditching a rare achievement of the Tories' time in government, the 2019 law to make the Paris Agreement's net zero target legally binding. Here are three reasons why Badenoch is wrong: .../1 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...
bbc.co.uk
Net Zero by 2050 'impossible' for UK, says Kemi Badenoch
The Conservative leader says the target is impossible
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
Same.
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Will Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 12/03/2025
There's an analogy between what is happening to UK universities and post-Bretton Woods financialisation of US economy. The pivot is from producing things of use value (goods/education), to selling paper on the international market. The global demand for UK paper is still there, and some people...
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 10/03/2025
It feels like the English speaking liberal media have been entirely unconcerned with German political economic realities, and considered debt brake reform a done deal because it fits their priors that its both logical and necessary. against that, @adamtooze.bsky.social provides some helpful nuance
adamtooze.substack.com
Chartbook 358 Debt brake dilemmas for progressive economic policy in Germany
For years many of us have been campaigning for a fundamental change in German fiscal policy.
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Daniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 22/02/2025
I've written about the method in the DOGE USAID madness. It's not bullying as power, it's good Wall Street Consensus on steroids, by and for private equity www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/how...
phenomenalworld.org
How to DOGE USAID | Daniela Gabor
The Wall Street Consensus and development financing under Trump
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Steven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 01/02/2025
Great new paper from Yesha Yadav and Josh Younger on the perils and promises (both realistic and lofty) of centrally clearing Treasuries. "All things considered, it is not clear if a broad clearing mandate will materially improve the elasticity of dealers making these markets."
papers.ssrn.com
<b>Central Clearing in the US Treasury Market</b>
<p><i><span>The market for U.S. Treasuries is arguably the largest, deepest, most liquid, and most systemically important in the world. Transactions in U.S. Tre
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Steven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 20/02/2025
Nice new paper from Rich Clarida and Kate Judge: "Emergency Lending by the Federal Reserve"
papers.ssrn.com
Emergency Lending by the Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve established an array of innovative emergency lending facilities during the Great Financial Crisis and expanded the scope of its emergency le
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Reposted by Fabian Pape
Benjamin Braun @benbraun.social · 19/02/2025
Ouch
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Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 11/02/2025
Interesting paper, especially in highlighting the need to think about credit creation in the payment chains linking global production networks. Maybe more relevant for RMB internationalisation though...
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