Reposted by Fabian PapeManuela Moschella @manuelamoschella.bsky.social · 03/05/2026War → energy shock → inflation. This time: Iran. But we saw this already after Russia invaded Ukraine. Back then, the shock ignited some big debates on monetary autonomy and dollar dominance In a new paper w/@palmapolyak.bsky.social we go back to that moment. A short thread👇 1167
Reposted by Fabian PapeHannes Baumann @hannesbaumann.bsky.social · 12/01/2026Got round to reading this useful summary of the state of dollar dominance: @fabianpape.bsky.social @johannespetry.bsky.social & Pforr predict a "financial interregnum" as Trump erodes trust in the hegemon. Notable for Mideast watchers: Gulf states feature heavily! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...cambridge.orgDollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump | International Organization | Cambridge CoreDollar Diminished: The Unmaking of US Financial Hegemony Under Trump - Volume 79 Issue S1 011
Reposted by Fabian PapeCambridge University Press Political Science & IR @cambup-polsci.cambridge.org · 14/12/2025Based on their recent @iojournal.bsky.social article Tobias Pforr, @fabianpape.bsky.social & @johannespetry.bsky.social, wrote a short piece for @theconversation.con about the future of the dollar - cup.org/48E2cW9 theconversation.comIs the dominance of the US dollar unravelling under Trump?The erosion of trust in the US as the steward of the liberal international order should be taken seriously. 023
Reposted by Fabian PapeIlias Alami @iliasalami.bsky.social · 20/11/2025New essay, written for the excellent @transitionsec.bsky.social Propelled by the climatic and hegemonic transitions, military-imperial forms of state capitalism are confiscating our collective right to a safe, green, tech-powered future. transitionsecurity.org/imperial-sta... @campolis.bsky.social 03320
Reposted by Fabian PapeJan Fichtner @janfichtner.bsky.social · 30/10/2025🚨New publication with Kristijan Kotarski: Enduring Structural Power? Assessing the Dominance of the Anglosphere in Global Finance Before the Trump Turn Includes novel visualizations of global finance (banking, portfolio inv & FDI) showing persistent US centrality hrcak.srce.hr/clanak/487488 15930
Reposted by Fabian PapeAlbert Pinto @70sbachchan.bsky.social · 01/08/2025"The AI infrastructure build-out is so gigantic that in the past 6 months, it contributed more to the growth of the U.S. economy than /all of consumer spending/" - @mims.bsky.social My takeway is that The US has gone ALL IN BET OF THE 21st Century on AI, while China has gone all in on green tech 33702226
Reposted by Fabian PapeDaniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 21/07/2025The FT got an ex-central banker to write a defence of cb independence. amazing how spectre of fiscal dominance spooks Haldane into forgetting innovations in central banking he literally introduced during the crisis, like sovereign market market of last resort www.ft.com/content/2372...ft.com‘Fiscal populism’ is coming for central banksWhen monetary policy is set to meet government budgetary needs, these institutions become piggy banks 1228
Reposted by Fabian PapeMonica DiLeo @monicadileo.bsky.social · 30/05/2025New (open access!) paper out now with Eric Helleiner and Hongying Wang in New Political Economy: "A less reluctant (green) Atlas? Explaining the People’s Bank of China’s distinctive environmental shift" 1/ A brief thread 🧵 doi.org/10.1080/1356... 36025
Reposted by Fabian PapeWill Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 20/04/2025Great essay on the madness of the "dead internet" and AI slop, drawing on @maxread.info www.ft.com/content/5d06...ft.comWelcome to slop world: how the hostile internet is driving us crazyThe last bits of fellowship and ingenuity on the web are being swept away by a tide of so-called artificial intelligence 1245
Reposted by Fabian PapeDaniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 16/04/2025European car executives never miss a chance to denounce climate regulation, even when it's well known China ALSO imposed such rules on its own industry. No guys, it was your complacent asses. 210518
Reposted by Fabian PapeLuca Tiratelli @lucatiratelli.bsky.social · 15/04/2025Higher ed is the most geographically distributed major growth-generating sector we have. The destruction of universities makes no sense if your priorities are growth, or rebalancing the economy. Only ideological prejudice explains this course of action. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...theguardian.comTo understand this government, look at who it bailed out – and the flailing UK sector it didn’t | Gaby HinsliffUniversities, a key plank of our economy, face a bonfire of jobs. But are they the jobs Starmer wants to be seen to be saving, asks Guardian columnist Gaby Hinsliff 2198
Reposted by Fabian PapeRachel Coldicutt @rachelcoldicutt.bsky.social · 12/04/2025Quite wonderful find by this FT team. A Chinese small business that makes MAGA merch on.ft.com/4cAH6tE 16734354
Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 09/04/2025Maybe of interest to @adamtooze.bsky.social that FOMC members already complained about 'fan-fi' after the 2019 repo spike (from Oct 4, 2019 meeting) 030
Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 09/04/2025It's that time of crisis again where Adam Tooze enters his relentless live-blogging phaseadamtooze.substack.comChartbook 370: Is a "Treasury market unwind" in progress? Wednesday morning and the overnight fin-fi panic. (Part 2)A specter is stalking global financial markets. 040
Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 09/04/2025My contrarian take is that swap lines are entirely overhyped. they offer Europeans (and some others) preferential terms of dollar borrowing in crises. without swap lines, the ECB etc can use the FIMA repo facility like everyone else. 120
Reposted by Fabian PapeIñaki Aldasoro @aldasoro.bsky.social · 09/04/2025“Everyone is worried about the basis trade” Check this great article in hedge funds by Paul. Among other things it uses an update to our article www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/... (check update here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....), linking MMF to hedge funds’ basis trade through sponsored repo 1/ 13024
Reposted by Fabian PapeErin Lockwood @erinkaylockwood.bsky.social · 09/04/2025In his 2021 NPE article on swap lines, @fabianpape.bsky.social points not only to their backstopping/stabilizing function, but also their use as a lever of US monetary policy to intervene in offshore dollar markets and pull global capital back to the US. www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....tandfonline.comGoverning Global Liquidity: Federal Reserve Swap Lines and the International Dimension of US Monetary PolicySince the use of swap lines during the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve is widely seen as international lender of last resort. Yet the focus on emergency liquidity assistance tends to o... 281
Reposted by Fabian PapeDaniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 24/03/2025The Labour government, with a majority in Parliament, is apparently planning to redistribute from the disabled to US Big Tech. www.theguardian.com/politics/202...theguardian.comStarmer is warned against ‘appeasing’ Trump with tax cut for US tech firmsLabour MP and Lib Dem leader express concern social media companies could be let off hook just as benefits are cut 27440
Reposted by Fabian PapeSteven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 25/03/2025European officials beginning to wargame what it would look like if the Fed pulled their swaps under political pressure. The Fed got the State Dept's OK for each of its swap lines in 2008, particularly important for EM ones. Unclear tho if it'd pull one of the standing ones from Europe, Japan, etc.reuters.comExclusive: Some European officials weigh if they can rely on Fed for dollars under TrumpSome European central banking and supervisory officials are questioning whether they can still rely on the U.S. Federal Reserve to provide dollar funding in times of market stress, six people familiar with the matter said, casting some doubt over what has been a bedrock of financial stability. 34214
Reposted by Fabian PapeJeremy Gilbert @jemgilbert.bsky.social · 21/03/2025I can't help noticing that Labour promised not to introduce a wealth tax and not to return to austerity and that only one of those promises has been kept. 23720
Reposted by Fabian PapeRobert Falkner @robertfalkner.bsky.social · 18/03/2025Badenoch is to end the UK's bipartisan consensus on climate policy. She is ditching a rare achievement of the Tories' time in government, the 2019 law to make the Paris Agreement's net zero target legally binding. Here are three reasons why Badenoch is wrong: .../1 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...bbc.co.ukNet Zero by 2050 'impossible' for UK, says Kemi BadenochThe Conservative leader says the target is impossible 1127
Reposted by Fabian PapeWill Davies @will-davies.bsky.social · 12/03/2025There's an analogy between what is happening to UK universities and post-Bretton Woods financialisation of US economy. The pivot is from producing things of use value (goods/education), to selling paper on the international market. The global demand for UK paper is still there, and some people... 21910
Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 10/03/2025It feels like the English speaking liberal media have been entirely unconcerned with German political economic realities, and considered debt brake reform a done deal because it fits their priors that its both logical and necessary. against that, @adamtooze.bsky.social provides some helpful nuanceadamtooze.substack.comChartbook 358 Debt brake dilemmas for progressive economic policy in GermanyFor years many of us have been campaigning for a fundamental change in German fiscal policy. 100
Reposted by Fabian PapeDaniela Gabor @danielagabor.bsky.social · 22/02/2025I've written about the method in the DOGE USAID madness. It's not bullying as power, it's good Wall Street Consensus on steroids, by and for private equity www.phenomenalworld.org/analysis/how...phenomenalworld.orgHow to DOGE USAID | Daniela GaborThe Wall Street Consensus and development financing under Trump 29043
Reposted by Fabian PapeSteven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 01/02/2025Great new paper from Yesha Yadav and Josh Younger on the perils and promises (both realistic and lofty) of centrally clearing Treasuries. "All things considered, it is not clear if a broad clearing mandate will materially improve the elasticity of dealers making these markets."papers.ssrn.com<b>Central Clearing in the US Treasury Market</b><p><i><span>The market for U.S. Treasuries is arguably the largest, deepest, most liquid, and most systemically important in the world. Transactions in U.S. Tre 001
Reposted by Fabian PapeSteven Kelly @stevenkelly49.bsky.social · 20/02/2025Nice new paper from Rich Clarida and Kate Judge: "Emergency Lending by the Federal Reserve"papers.ssrn.comEmergency Lending by the Federal ReserveThe Federal Reserve established an array of innovative emergency lending facilities during the Great Financial Crisis and expanded the scope of its emergency le 1115
Fabian Pape @fabianpape.bsky.social · 11/02/2025Interesting paper, especially in highlighting the need to think about credit creation in the payment chains linking global production networks. Maybe more relevant for RMB internationalisation though... 110