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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2026

I showed this post to Ben and he reports that "the drummer's songs are good" more news as it develops

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

I wanted Jake Mangum will produce more WAR than Konnor Griffin real bad but I'll take this

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Michael Baumann @baumann.bsky.social · 28/09/2026

Friends, we have arrived at the promised land

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2026

Of course! That possibility needed to be weighed by everyone when determining the likelihood. I've repeatedly advised to be on the lookout for chances to influence outcomes and this was definitely one of them.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2026

With the regular season now having come to a close, here's the unofficial look of where everyone stands in the Preseason Predictions Game...

The challenge system will spark a benches-clearing incident. ???
Shohei Ohtani will win the NL Cy Young award, but NOT the NL MVP award. ???
Four AL East teams will make the postseason. FALSE
No team that has missed the playoffs for the past two or more seasons will return to the playoffs this year. FALSE
At least four players with lowest-quartile sprint speed will steal 30 or more bases. FALSE
One of the nine new MLB managers will be fired. ???
Justin Verlander will have the highest age-43-or-older fWAR season by a non-Nolan Ryan, non-knuckleball/spitball-throwing starting pitcher. FALSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates will earn the most fWAR in at least half a century by starting pitchers aged 30 or younger who have never previously pitched for another MLB team. FALSE
The A's and the Pirates will both miss the postseason, but A's hitter fWAR + Pirates pitcher fWAR will combine to be a top-10 team fWAR total. FALSE
Each of the three former Yankees closers on the Mets (Clay Holmes, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver) will earn more fWAR than they did in any season with the Yankees. FALSE

Every NL Cy Young vote-getter will be listed at either 6'6" or taller, or 6' or shorter. ???
Jake Mangum will earn more fWAR than Konnor Griffin. FALSE
Artemis II will launch before the first regular-season batted ball in play with an exit velocity of 117.0 MPH or higher. TRUE
Mickey Moniak will lead the league in home runs hit by a former no. 1 overall draft pick. FALSE
By the end of the season, the website Archive of Our Own (AO3) will include at least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about Giants manager Tony Vitello OR at least one entry of erotic fan fiction about Vitello and Kyle Shanahan. TRUE
Munetaka Murakami will have more strikeouts than any White Sox player has hits. TRUE
The A's will commit at least $100 million in additional contract extensions. ???
An MLB player will physically assault a member of Rob Manfred's office. ???
Caleb Durbin will earn at least one MVP vote. ???
At least one current MLB player, manager, or GM will go through a breakup in which one party will publicly blame politics for the split. ???

On Opening Day, 6 or more Cleveland Guardians will extend a hand, bat, or other object towards Cal Raleigh in a way that either touches him or invites him to touch it. FALSE
Kyle Teel will lead White Sox hitters in fWAR while not ranking among the top five on the team for plate appearances. FALSE
Chase Burns will finish in the top five in Cy Young award voting. ???
Zac Gallen will pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA below 3.25. FALSE
Marcus Semien will lead all MLB players in defensive innings at second base. FALSE
Sal Frelick will lead Brewers outfielders in fWAR. FALSE
Kerry Carpenter will post a wRC+ of 120 or higher against left-handed pitchers (min. 40 PA). FALSE
Spencer Strider will be optioned to the minors. FALSE
The Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, A's, and Cardinals will all miss the postseason. FALSE
Philip Rivers will not throw out a ceremonial first pitch in a regular season game in affiliated ball, but Russell Wilson will. ???

Konnor Griffin will surpass Mike Trout's rookie-season fWAR total of 10.1. FALSE
Neither Cal Raleigh nor Aaron Judge will lead the AL in home runs. TRUE
Corbin Carroll will have a 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, home runs, steals). FALSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates will finish 2nd in the NL Central, but will not make the playoffs. FALSE
Maikel Garcia will lead the Kansas City Royals in fWAR. FALSE
James Paxton will pitch in affiliated baseball. FALSE
Brice Turang will finish in the top five in NL MVP voting. ???
A high school pitcher will be the no. 1 pick in the amateur draft. FALSE
The A's starting rotation will finish in the "fat middle" of the league (11th-20th) in FIP. FALSE
Vinnie Pasquantino will use "Espresso" by Sabrina Carpenter as his walk-up song at least once. FALSE

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2026

On September 25th, the user "AustinSlayyyter" uploaded the story "He's Hot, (V)I Tell(O) You!" depecting an erotic scene between Tony Vitello and Kyle Shanahan. @baumann.bsky.social 's prediction is declared TRUE.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 26/09/2026

Konnor Griffin now leads Jake Mangum, 1.4 to 1.1 fWAR. This may be the first post I've made that correctly spells *both* of their names, and I'm still not 100% confident.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 26/09/2026

Corbin Carroll goes 0-4 with a sac fly RBI. 3 triples needed, 2 games remain.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 25/09/2026

oh my god AL EAST. EAST. WHY DO I KEEP FORGETTING TO TYPE "EAST".

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 25/09/2026

We are going to have a FLURRY of predictions breaking one way or another in the next couple days so will have a full summary at the close of the regular season, but with the Orioles being eliminated, 4 AL Teams making the postseason falls to FALSE.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 24/09/2026

Corbin Carroll went 1-3 with a single in the series finale against the Rockies. 3 triples needed, 3 games remain - all in San Diego.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 24/09/2026

Jake Mangum is now 0.1 fWAR *behind* Konnor Griffin, 1.2 to 1.3.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 24/09/2026

KONNOR GRIFFIN AND JAKE MAGNUM ARE TIED IN FWAR THIS IS NOT A DRILL

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 22/09/2026

Corbin Carroll didn't hit any triples today. He also didn't play, the DBacks were off. There's probably some correlation between these facts. (Six games remain.)

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 21/09/2026

Corbin Carroll went 1-3 with a single and a walk. 6 games remain. 4 triples still needed. Next three games at Coors Field means anything's possible...

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 20/09/2026

Corbin Carroll went 0-2 with a walk and a sac fly tonight. No triples. 7 games remain. 4 triples needed.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 19/09/2026

Good news: Corbin Carroll went 2-4 with 6 total bases in tonight's game! Bad news: It was a homer and a double. 8 games remain. 4 triples needed.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/09/2026

Aaron Judge has been placed on the IL, meaning he's all but certain to end the season at 18 HR. Cal Raleigh need 19 HR to claim the AL lead, so I think Meg's prediction is *fairly* safe.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/09/2026

Okay, after doing more research, I don't believe this would count. There's no quotes supporting that this was his throw day, and he's apparently been lobbying to be a legit bullpen option for awhile now in order to keep their postseason hopes alive.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/09/2026

CORBIN CARROLL 20/20/20/20 WATCH Carroll needs 4 more triples in 9 games: - 3 games at home vs NYY (good triples park) - 3 games away @ COL (very good triples park) - 3 games away @ SDP (NOT a good triples park)

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/09/2026

Does anyone have any supporting quotes/evidence that this was Sandy's throw day?

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Goopf @pasha-antigov.bsky.social · 17/09/2026

Sandy Alcántara has now done so (in a non-playoff game), but a few years too late for Ben's prediction

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 15/09/2026

With the Yankees clinching a postseason berth, @benclemens.bsky.social's prediction that NYY/BOS/STL/ATH/BAL will all miss the postseason is declared FALSE.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 12/09/2026

While I'm at it, one more note of @ewpod.bsky.social trivia I just realized: With his appearance on Episode 2526, Jack Wrightson (the stadium sound/acoustics guy) became the *750th* unique guest to appear on Effectively Wild!

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 12/09/2026

Predictions update for @benlindbergh.bsky.social: - TOR has 25.6% odds of being 4th ALE team in postseason - Justin Verlander at -0.1 fWAR - PIT pitchers + ATH hitters = not in Top 10 - Weaver & Holmes ahead of best NYY season, but Devin Williams (0.7 fWAR) needs to beat 1.4

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 12/09/2026

Predictions Game update for @megrowler.fangraphs.com: - Konnor Griffin: 1.1 fWAR - Judge (17), Raleigh (21) trail the AL HR lead (40) - Corbin Carroll is 4 3B's away from 20/20/20/20 - PIT is 3rd in NLC, 8 back of CHC in 2nd - Garcia (1.7) behind Witt Jr. (6.5) for KC fWAR - ATH SP are 30th in FIP

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 12/09/2026

Predictions game update for @benclemens.bsky.social: - Kyle Teel only has 0.5 fWAR, which is 10th for CWS hitters - Zac Gallen has a 6.22 ERA with only 101.1 IP - Semien (1096.2) is 8th for innings at 2B, with Ozzie Albies leading (1275) - Sal Frelick has -0.2 fWAR - Kerry Carpenter: 20 wRC+ vs LHP

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 12/09/2026

In other Preseason Predictions game news for @baumann.bsky.social : - Jake Magnum (1.4) currently leads Konnor Griffin (1.1) in fWAR - Mickey Moniak (22) trails Bryce Harper (27) in HR by a #1 draft pick - Murakami's 170 K's is 30 ahead of CWS's hits leader (Meidroth at 140)

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 12/09/2026

A bit behind on this but: With the Rays making the postseason, @benlindbergh.bsky.social's prediction that no team that has missed the postseason for the last 2 seasons will make it is INCORRECT.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 10/09/2026

With the release of @ewpod.bsky.social Episode 2529, we welcome @hannahrkeyser.bsky.social as the 66th member of the EW Five-Timers Club!

Five-Timers Club plaque on a dark wooden door

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/08/2026

Since 1910, there have been 124,497 innings on record in AL/NL play with at least 4 hits recorded. Only 82 (0.07%) were scoreless. This is the first one since 2015. (h/t Michael Mountain)

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 09/08/2026

Corbin Carroll is up to 13 triples 👀

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 31/07/2026

Because Ben wondered about Sloan's podcast appearances total: confirmed at two. (She now ranks above John Brebbia.)

A screenshot of a google sheet showing the number of appearances of guests on Effectively Wild and which episodes they were on.

3 - Ian Miller - 102, 152, 161
2 - Sloan Lindbergh - 2232, 2510
2 - John Brebbia - 2316, 2496

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 29/07/2026

The Twins just won a 9-inning game in which they hit 5 GIDPs, a feat only accomplished 104 times. That's rarer than throwing a no-hitter! Only 11 teams have won a game with 6 GIDPs, most recently the Astros in 2018. Nobody has ever won with 7. (Stats provided by Michael Mountain)

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 11/07/2026

With the #1 pick in the MLB Draft being UCLA SS Roch Cholowsky, @megrowler.fangraphs.com's prediction of a HS pitcher being first is declared FALSE.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 09/07/2026

anyone know the record for most fWAR accrued in a calendar month?

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 04/07/2026

Episode 2500 coming out on the US 250th wasn't the only coincidence - it's also @grantbrisbee.bsky.social's 25th appearance on the show.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 25/06/2026

Vitello's aura has diminished so much that I don't think anyone's going to bother with him on AO3 anymore

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Matt Martell @mattmartell.fangraphs.com · 20/06/2026

Corbin Carroll 20/20/20/20 Tracker: 16 doubles, 9 triples, 13 home runs, 9 stolen bases

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 20/06/2026

a rare self-serving post: help a guy out

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 19/06/2026

Welp. So much for that Sunday return.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/06/2026

In the MLFAD, Meg's draft board has had a pretty awful run, still stuck at zero and with only two players projected by FanGraphs to record playing time. One of them, Ty Adcock, was DFA'd by the Padres on the 14th. However, on the positive side, the other player (Blake Hunt) was who got called up!

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/06/2026

Elsewhere around the Preseason Predictions Game: - Justin Verlander (1.6 fWAR) returns from the IL on Sunday - Konnor Griffin currently doubling up Jake Magnum's fWAR - Mickey Moniak has 21 HR, which I am told is a lot - Corbin Carroll already has 8 triples

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/06/2026

Ben Clemens's prediction of Spencer Strider being optioned to the minors takes another major hit with the news of his placement on the 60-day IL, preventing his potential return until mid-August. He'd originally been placed on the 15-day IL earlier this week. www.rotowire.com/baseball/hea...

rotowire.com

Spencer Strider Injury: Transferred to 60-day IL | RotoWire

Atlanta transferred Strider (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 11/06/2026

Once again, @benclemens.bsky.social is ahead of his time, as the White Sox have sole possession of the AL Central lead

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Fox Mulder Bat Flip @mulderbatflip.net · 02/06/2026

Good shit imo

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