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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2026

With the regular season now having come to a close, here's the unofficial look of where everyone stands in the Preseason Predictions Game...

The challenge system will spark a benches-clearing incident. ???
Shohei Ohtani will win the NL Cy Young award, but NOT the NL MVP award. ???
Four AL East teams will make the postseason. FALSE
No team that has missed the playoffs for the past two or more seasons will return to the playoffs this year. FALSE
At least four players with lowest-quartile sprint speed will steal 30 or more bases. FALSE
One of the nine new MLB managers will be fired. ???
Justin Verlander will have the highest age-43-or-older fWAR season by a non-Nolan Ryan, non-knuckleball/spitball-throwing starting pitcher. FALSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates will earn the most fWAR in at least half a century by starting pitchers aged 30 or younger who have never previously pitched for another MLB team. FALSE
The A's and the Pirates will both miss the postseason, but A's hitter fWAR + Pirates pitcher fWAR will combine to be a top-10 team fWAR total. FALSE
Each of the three former Yankees closers on the Mets (Clay Holmes, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver) will earn more fWAR than they did in any season with the Yankees. FALSE

Every NL Cy Young vote-getter will be listed at either 6'6" or taller, or 6' or shorter. ???
Jake Mangum will earn more fWAR than Konnor Griffin. FALSE
Artemis II will launch before the first regular-season batted ball in play with an exit velocity of 117.0 MPH or higher. TRUE
Mickey Moniak will lead the league in home runs hit by a former no. 1 overall draft pick. FALSE
By the end of the season, the website Archive of Our Own (AO3) will include at least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about Giants manager Tony Vitello OR at least one entry of erotic fan fiction about Vitello and Kyle Shanahan. TRUE
Munetaka Murakami will have more strikeouts than any White Sox player has hits. TRUE
The A's will commit at least $100 million in additional contract extensions. ???
An MLB player will physically assault a member of Rob Manfred's office. ???
Caleb Durbin will earn at least one MVP vote. ???
At least one current MLB player, manager, or GM will go through a breakup in which one party will publicly blame politics for the split. ???

On Opening Day, 6 or more Cleveland Guardians will extend a hand, bat, or other object towards Cal Raleigh in a way that either touches him or invites him to touch it. FALSE
Kyle Teel will lead White Sox hitters in fWAR while not ranking among the top five on the team for plate appearances. FALSE
Chase Burns will finish in the top five in Cy Young award voting. ???
Zac Gallen will pitch at least 150 innings with an ERA below 3.25. FALSE
Marcus Semien will lead all MLB players in defensive innings at second base. FALSE
Sal Frelick will lead Brewers outfielders in fWAR. FALSE
Kerry Carpenter will post a wRC+ of 120 or higher against left-handed pitchers (min. 40 PA). FALSE
Spencer Strider will be optioned to the minors. FALSE
The Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, A's, and Cardinals will all miss the postseason. FALSE
Philip Rivers will not throw out a ceremonial first pitch in a regular season game in affiliated ball, but Russell Wilson will. ???

Konnor Griffin will surpass Mike Trout's rookie-season fWAR total of 10.1. FALSE
Neither Cal Raleigh nor Aaron Judge will lead the AL in home runs. TRUE
Corbin Carroll will have a 20/20/20/20 season (doubles, triples, home runs, steals). FALSE
The Pittsburgh Pirates will finish 2nd in the NL Central, but will not make the playoffs. FALSE
Maikel Garcia will lead the Kansas City Royals in fWAR. FALSE
James Paxton will pitch in affiliated baseball. FALSE
Brice Turang will finish in the top five in NL MVP voting. ???
A high school pitcher will be the no. 1 pick in the amateur draft. FALSE
The A's starting rotation will finish in the "fat middle" of the league (11th-20th) in FIP. FALSE
Vinnie Pasquantino will use "Espresso" by Sabrina Carpenter as his walk-up song at least once. FALSE

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 10/09/2026

With the release of @ewpod.bsky.social Episode 2529, we welcome @hannahrkeyser.bsky.social as the 66th member of the EW Five-Timers Club!

Five-Timers Club plaque on a dark wooden door

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 31/07/2026

Because Ben wondered about Sloan's podcast appearances total: confirmed at two. (She now ranks above John Brebbia.)

A screenshot of a google sheet showing the number of appearances of guests on Effectively Wild and which episodes they were on.

3 - Ian Miller - 102, 152, 161
2 - Sloan Lindbergh - 2232, 2510
2 - John Brebbia - 2316, 2496

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 05/05/2026

The Tigers and Red Sox, playing in front of an empty stadium due to a threat of lightning. Now the question is, if this had happened last year, would we have counted it as a correct prediction for Baumann?

Baseball telecast showing the Red Sox and Tigers playing in Detroit. It's 2-0 DET in the top of the 7th and a man on first. The stadium is empty and the sky is incredibly grey and stormy.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 25/04/2026

Oh no Sal Frelick baby what is you doin

Screenshot of Sal Frelick's FanGraphs page, showing him currently at -0.2 fWAR

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 16/04/2026

It *finally* happened! Oneil Cruz his a double at 119(!) MPH exit velocity.

A screenshot from a Baseball Savant statfeed showing an Oneil Cruz double hit at 119.0 MPH

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 08/04/2026

everyone: omg people are fighting me: WAS A CHALLENGE INVOLVED everyone: ...what?

a baseball broadcast featuring the braves and angels, both benches have cleared and are on the field after a skirmish between players

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 06/04/2026

🧵/1 Okay, EWStats sometimes could use some help scrounging up more esoteric info, so we're starting a new thing: the *STAT SIGNAL*. We're putting out the call to EW listeners to help us find the answers to burning questions from the podcast and it's competitions and/or 'prop bet' games.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 01/04/2026

Another Artemis II/baseball connection: They had a montage of A-list celebrity messages to the astronauts, including Stanley Tucci, Ryan Gosling, Scarlet Johannson, Victor Wembanyama... ...and Pirates reliever Isaac Mattson?

A screenshot of Isaac Mattson talking to camera on the NASA livestream

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 31/03/2026

Was not expecting Corbin Carroll's first progress towards a 20/20/20/20 season to be hitting a triple, but he's on the board.

Screenshot from Baseball Savant game log

Corbin Carroll - Result: Triple - Exit Velo: 107.4

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 29/03/2026

Per WeatherNation: "Florida will likely have some pop-up showers, but it's a bit too early to determine if any thunderstorms could be in the area." www.weathernationtv.com/news/artemis...

Artemis II Launch Forecast, Wed 6:00 PM PT

Cape Canaveral - Wednesday - 81

An icon indicating partly sunny skies with some lightning

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 26/03/2026

Obviously keeping an eye on this for predictions reasons (and if you haven't submitted your form yet, you should too)

A chart showing the top exit velocity hits in baseball today, led by Trent Grisham at 105.7 MPH

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 26/03/2026

Let me be 'on brand' for a moment and offer my thoughts on the Netflix scorebug: - bad combination of TINY text and space wasted down below - Colors are good but element hierarchy is a bit confused for me - Only two dots for outs = straight to jail - Will be interested to see how dynamic it is

A screenshot of the baseball scorebug used on Netflix broadcasts. The score is 0-0 in the bottom of the first with runners on the corners

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 24/03/2026

You have 48 HOURS LEFT to get your ballots in! We just passed 750! This is clearly the biggest Effectively Wild-related news today!

Effectively Wild 2026 Preseason Predictions Game - 48 Hours Remaining

ewstats.com

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 23/03/2026

As teased on the pod, and now revealing: The top three listeners in the Preseason Predictions Game will each receive a personalized trophy! Get your ballots in - ewstats.com

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 21/03/2026

By popular demand: we have now added a feature to the EWStats website so that you can sort the predictions by podcast order and read along while you listen without jumping around.

A screenshot of the EWStats website showing predictions sorted in the order they were made on the podcast

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 20/03/2026

You're really going to want to listen to the podcast

By the end of the season, the website Archive of Our Own (AO3) will include at least 10 entries of erotic fan fiction about

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 26/02/2026

A bit behind on my guest tracking, but I want to give a belated welcome to AJ Cassavell as the 65th member of the @ewpod.bsky.social Five-Timers Club!

A plaque on a door that says "FIVE-TIMERS CLUB"

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 19/02/2026

I'm out here asking the hard questions

screenshot of fangraphs chat:

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat. I'm just getting some coffee brewing, since I'm used to a slightly later chatting window, but let's get started and then I'll take a quick break to fuel up

Chris Hanel: Have you started thinking about your bold preseason predictions?

Ben Clemens: Bold? yes. How to make them not way too bold? no

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 11/02/2026

me waiting for Zac Gallen to finally sign somewhere

a picture of a man sitting next to an old rotary-style phone, looking bored and staring at the phone

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 22/12/2025

With his appearance in today's @ewpod.bsky.social episode (2417), @samblum3.bsky.social becomes the 64th member of the Effectively Wild Five Timers Club! Congrats!

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 07/12/2025

okay first of all how dare you

A discord screenshot of someone saying "All I'm taking away is that Chris fudged numbers to lure Sam to record an episode"

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 22/11/2025

Me and my dad in the front row at a game in 2015. One of my favorite Iowa memories.

Two guys smiling in the stands at a baseball game

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 18/11/2025

With the news about Grisham and Torres both taking the QO, @benlindbergh.bsky.social collects one correct prediction and one push, getting on the board with 53.975 points.

Ben Lindbergh's list of players in the Contract Over/Under draft. 2 of the 8 players now have results, giving him a score of 53.975

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 14/11/2025

Congratulations to Benjamin Hammler for winning the listener portion of the 2025 Preseason Predictions Game! Your final leaderboard:

1. Benjamin Hammler - 5,910
2. Tyler Green - 5,722
3. Alex Isherwood - 5,271
4. T.J. Krafnick - 5,218
5. Jordan S - 5,099
6. Billy Dennis - 5,029
7. John Criscuoli - 5,014
8. Daniel Swan - 5,010
9. Turquoise - 5,931
10. Ryan G - 4,914

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 13/11/2025

Ben and Meg have made their picks in the Contract Over/Under Draft! Biggest burning question: Is Ben going to get burned by a Kyle Tucker mega-deferral contract? (And if not, would it really be a Contract Over/Under Draft?)

Ben's Ballot:
Kyle Tucker - Under - 400
Trent Grisham - Under - 66
Gleyber Torres - Over - 20.025
Tyler Mahle - Over - 15
Michael King - Under - 80
Justin Verlander - Under - 22
Dylan Cease - Under - 189
Ranger Suarez - Over - 115

Meg's Ballot:
Munetaka Murakami - Under - 180
Edwin Diaz - Over - 82
Zac Gallen - Under - 80
Eugenio Suarez - Under - 63
Kyle Schwarber - Under - 135
Devin Williams - Under - 68
Tyler Rogers - Over - 18
Pete Alonso - Under - 110

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 13/11/2025

Your updated listener leaderboard with 3 predictions and ~7 hours remaining:

Benjamin Hammler - 5,202
Tyler Green - 4,975
T.J. Krafnick - 4,687
Alex Isherwood - 4,683
Ty - 4,638
Billy Dennis - 4,554
David Graber - 4,491
Greg Knapp - 4,424
Bob C - 4,387
Jordan S - 4,372

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 20/10/2025

The EWStats team have had some time to kill during the postseason, so a few of us ended up creating this: The MLB All-'Star Wars Name' Team for 2025

The MLB All Star Wars Name Team

Outfielder:
Akil Baddoo
Lars Nootbaar
Zac Veen

Infielders:
Rhys Hoskins
Gavin Lux
Jorbit Vivas
Nico Hoerner

Catcher:
Daulton Varsho

Designated Hitter:
Cavan Biggio

Starting Pitchers:
Tarik Skubal
Tanner Bibee
Slade Cecconi

Bullpen:
Griffin Jax
Pierson Ohl
Yosver Zulueta
Blas Castano
Kaleb Ort

Honorable Mention:
Harrison Ford
(Mariners Catcher)

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 01/10/2025

Me now that exactly zero preseason predictions directly involve the postseason

three images of a man sitting or standing alone, doing nothing, looking bored and trapped in his own thoughts

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 30/09/2025

Your updated listener leaderboard:

Benjamin Hammler - 3,980
Tyler Green - 3,798
Alex Isherwood - 3,727
Turquoise - 3,563
Billy Dennis - 3,562
Charlie - 3,536
Davy Andrews - 3,523
T.J. Krafnick - 3,514
David Graber - 3,491
Ty - 3,442

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 29/09/2025

Slight update: We're pretty sure the <94% sac fly success rate is FALSE. However, we're seeing noise in the data on Baseball Savant, and are awaiting confirmation from far more qualified sources who are generously helping to analyze the data.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 29/09/2025

We've updated the EWStats website so that you can now see more leaderboard data on your personal ballot URL you were given at the start of the season! Your current top 10 leaderboard (which includes at least one familiar name 🤔):

Tyler Green - 4,298
Benjamin Hammler - 3,726
Greg Knapp - 3,726
Conrad Berris - 3,717
Alex Isherwood - 3,500
Robert Scott - 3,445
Davy Andrews - 3,383
John Criscuoli - 3,380
T.J. Krafnick - 3,377
Bob C - 3,350

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2025

Updates to @baumann.bsky.social's ballot:

octopus tentacles holding a blank sheet of paper

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 28/09/2025

According to FG win projections, at this exact moment the Mets currently have a 11% chance to make the postseason

Two live game projections on Fangraphs. The Marlins have a 77.5% chance to beat the mets, while the Reds-Brewers game is extremely close to 50-50

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 26/09/2025

TB's loss to the Orioles is their 82nd, eliminating them from contention for a .500 season. Out of the 6 teams remaining, 5 must reach 81 wins.

A spreadsheet showing the remaining schedule for the teams still seeking 81 wins. CIN has clinched, TB is eliminated.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 25/09/2025

At the close of today's action, 5 of the 8 teams in play for .500 seasons lost, and yet nobody has been eliminated. Assuming the top 4 teams reach 81 wins, at least 2 of STL, SF, MIA, and TB must now win *ALL* of their remaining games for this prediction to stand.

A spreadsheet showing 8 MLB teams, their win totals, and their schedule for the rest of the season.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 24/09/2025

In any case, we shall be watching today's scoreboard with great interest!

A still image of Senator Palpatine from Star Wars

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 24/09/2025

The good news: Out of these 8 teams, only 1 of their 37 remaining games is against each other (today's STL/SF matchup), meaning the prediction won't easily be spoiled by teams blocking each other from the mark. /2

A spreadsheet showing 8 teams, their current win total, and their remaining schedule over the last week of the regular season.

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 22/09/2025

I have awful news for exactly one of our competitors

A screenshot from a website showing the Bears winning today's NFL game against the Cowboys 31-14, with a caption "Caleb Williams tosses 4 TDs as Bears take down Cowboys"

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 14/09/2025

Bears score 21 points in a losing effort against the Lions, keeping them winless for the season- but they can take solace in the fact that they are well outpacing the Cubs in @benclemens.bsky.social's prediction, 90-49 (Cubs game in progress)

A graph showing the Cubs and Bears total points/runs scored for the month of September. The Bears get double credit for their points, meaning they are currently ahead 90-49

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 08/09/2025

okay we might be on to something here

A picture of Michael Kopech picthing. Michael has long blonde hair which is tied into a bun

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 08/09/2025

Okay which baseball player is this

Sabrina Carpenter had reportedly been cozying up with a “hot, tall, and blonde” mystery man during the summer while on a European getaway with her family. It appears the singer teased her new album, “Man’s Best Friend,” and sparked romance rumors over the past couple of months. Sources claimed that Carpenter has been secretly dating, with two sightings reported in Italy in July and more recently in the U.K., where she was leaning on him and looked “happy.”

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Effectively Wild Stats @ewstats.com · 05/09/2025

Coming soon to an @ewpod.bsky.social competitions website near you (just in time for the home stretch!)

A screenshot of a website showing a line graph depicting the league-wide strikeout rate over the 2025 season. It's currently inching closer to the 22% threshold related to the prediction

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