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Evan Rosenman

@evanrosenman.bsky.social
210 followers 326 following 316 posts

Assistant Professor of Statistics @ Claremont McKenna

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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 02/10/2026
Hasn't even bothered to endorse Amanda Janoo in the competitive gubernatorial election in his home state. bsky.app/profile/jaco...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 22/09/2026
I wonder if outrage over the Kirk assassination pulled forward some of the Republican early vote in Virginia in 2025, which might make the same-day comparisons look rosier for Democrats at the start of the EV period this year. bsky.app/profile/djso...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 21/09/2026
Pounding prosciutto before the fast, just as God intended.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 18/09/2026
Is the true start of autumn the fall equinox -- or the moment when we all try to remember how to pronounce "Loudoun" County? bsky.app/profile/djso...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 17/09/2026
Unlikely but not impossible that the Harris-won seats (NH & MN) could still be competitive in this environment. Either way, time to mobilize.
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David Darmofal @daviddarmofal.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Spencer Cox, who endorsed Trump in 2024, is one of the biggest frauds in American politics.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 14/09/2026
Avg Kalshi D win probability among Cook Toss-Up seats: 73% Avg Kalshi D win probability among Cook Lean R seats: 52% Prediction markets have major flaws, but I think they're a little ahead of the race raters here... bsky.app/profile/matt...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 13/09/2026
Nevada: where Dems could plausibly win all four House seats and yet the Governor's race remains a tossup. A truly unique state.
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Michael Paulauski♨️ @mike10010100.com · 12/09/2026
The Becerra misrepresentation wasn’t an anomaly. A check of all 27 Democrats on Erin Reed’s list reveals a pattern: fabricated citations, truncated quotes, erased pro-trans votes, and reckless advice. The guide: www.erininthemorning.com/p/the-guid… 🧵👇
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Will Stancil @whstancil.bsky.social · 12/09/2026
I'll confess I'm shocked by this: seeing a respected progressive voice openly argue that it's better to defeat Democrats who have been flaky on trans rights than to secure Democratic control of the US Senate and US House. Unbelievably foolish, short-sighted, self-sabotaging nonsense.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Often, I wonder what it feels like for our weakest leaders -- our Van Drews, Gabbards, Fettermans -- to finally give into their basest selves, to relinquish principle and let resentment wash over them. I imagine it's something like the warm euphoria one experiences just before freezing to death.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
*whispers* Gina "Pataki" Hinojosa
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Clara Jeffery @clarajeffery.bsky.social · 09/09/2026
Everybody who knows anything about insurance is screaming from the rooftops what a disaster Jane Kim would be as commissioner. Here’s another sfstandard.com/opinion/2026...
sfstandard.com
Opinion: Jane Kim’s California insurance plan is built on a myth
The candidate for insurance commissioner has campaigned on a platform of smoke and mirrors: big talk, little respect for the facts, and at times outright falsehoods.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 07/09/2026
While we're worrying about Bernie-endorsed Fetterman switching parties and handing the Senate to Republicans, don't forget that 84-year-old Sanders represents a state with a Republican governor and no law preventing him from replacing Sanders with a Republican if he dies. bsky.app/profile/poli...
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Joe Stieb @joestieb.bsky.social · 05/09/2026
Can i offer you a hot cup of shut the fuck up?
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 02/09/2026
Extremely funny that one of the few cities in which a youthful, DSA-backed challenger was unable to unseat an older, moderate incumbent was... Cambridge, MA.
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Emily J. Edwards @msemilyedwards.bsky.social · 31/08/2026
GOOOOOOOOOD.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 29/08/2026
LA World is an absolute godsend for in-depth coverage of local Los Angeles news.
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Dr. Annie Andrews @drannieandrews.com · 26/08/2026
The field is set and I’m ready to bring this election home.
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Joe Stieb @joestieb.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
This man is beneath contempt. Loathsome in every possible way.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 20/08/2026
*Screams in Bredesen, Bollier, Hoffmeister, McCormick...*
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Huge mistake.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Two of five options definitively did not happen. But Foulkes looks to be in the driver's seat for RI-Gov. And KLB and Acton are both in tossup races.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Always remember SurveyUSA nailing Smith’s weak 2020 margin. Flanagan should be fine but not a gimme like the 2018 special. bsky.app/profile/usap...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 19/08/2026
Welp, FL-Sen goes from Safe R to Safer R. But results in FL-25, FL-22, and FL-27 are encouraging.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 13/08/2026
fuck.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Among the 36 gubernatorial elections this year, it looks like 18 or 19 of the Dem nominees will be women, and 10 will be POC. Not a function of minority representation in unwinnable races, either. In the 11 races rated competitive by Cook, 9 of the Dem nominees will be women, POC, or both.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
More Dem votes than Rep votes in the MN-01 and MN-08 primaries.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 12/08/2026
Polar opposite of a WI general election night: absolutely dreading Dane County.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 10/08/2026
We dumped Platner. They kept Miller.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 09/08/2026
There actually would have been net benefit to replacing Case with a more reliable vote, whereas replacing Espaillat with DAC achieved nothing but giving Republicans a (justified) new line of attack. Sigh.
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Tom Nichols @radiofreetom.bsky.social · 08/08/2026
Start by kicking Piker to the curb - hard
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Cook Political somehow still has the Governor's race rated as Safe R.
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Joe Cohen @cohenhouse.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
Imagine how great Los Angeles will be with a mayor who says "yes" to building homes!
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 07/08/2026
With Blackburn the nominee in TN, many paths to beating record of 14 female governors. Very likely to happen if any 2 of the following happen: - Foulkes beats McKee in RI D primary - Degenfelder wins WY R nom - KLB wins general in GA - Acton wins general in OH - Hong wins primary + general in WI
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 03/08/2026
Embarrassing. bsky.app/profile/poli...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 31/07/2026
I'm pissed she went on Piker's show -- and I don't know if she can win as a "wonk insurgent" -- but Raman is just so much better at identifying what actually ails LA. Bass gets unfairly blamed for a lot. But her consensus-oriented style keeps failing to meet the moment. bsky.app/profile/bens...
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Matt Baldwin @thisbrokenwheel.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
I would like to know where this conciliatory attitude was two years ago when Liz Cheney walked away from her entire party & political career and put her life in no small amount of danger in an attempt to help prevent Trump from becoming president again.
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Sam @samd.bsky.social · 26/07/2026
at least I understand why many republicans oppose statehood (they don’t want what will very likely be left-leaning senators and representatives), but anti-statehood lefties just crack me up
The myth of consensual statehood
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TrumpsTaxes @trumpstaxes.com · 24/07/2026
All I can say is that Rs would not be spending millions to boost Francesca Hong for the #WIGov Dem nomination if they thought she'd be *harder* to beat. They are boosting her because they think she'll be *easier* to beat. And they have the data to back it up. www.wispolitics.com/2026/fri-am-...
wispolitics.com
FRI AM Update: RGA adds another six figures to its effort to boost Hong in the Dem gubernatorial primary
From WisPolitics ... -- The Republican Governors Association has added another six figures to its effort to boost Dem Francesca Hong in the gubernatorial primary. That pushes its overall investment in...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This is completely insane. Hong is going to destroy a generational opportunity for Wisconsin Dems.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 22/07/2026
This anti-Beshear stuff has to be a Republican psyop at this point.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 21/07/2026
My biggest reservation about Nithya Raman is her willingness to sit down with this obvious wrecker jackass. Too many folks who want good governance, more housing, and better transit think they can harness vacuous, populist nihilism into an electoral coalition. They can't. bsky.app/profile/shan...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 19/07/2026
What a great way to give Likud a boost just before the election. www.nytimes.com/2026/07/18/n...
nytimes.com
Mamdani Says He May Still Order Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Arrest in NYC (Gift Article)
Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in an interview with The New York Times that he was in “an active conversation” with New York City’s Law Department on whether he had the authority to arrest the Israeli lead...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 13/07/2026
New record of 27 women serving simultaneously in the Senate incoming. bsky.app/profile/vote...
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Charles Gaba ✡️ @charlesgaba.com · 13/07/2026
As far as I can tell, this is 90% of DSA campaigns this cycle.
A noun, a verb and AIPAC.
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Joel S. @joelhs.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
It’s not actually great that the Graham Platners of the world have made “Free Palestine” their code for a sort of generic “Fuck you” to authority. Especially when the lesson of the Platner debacle is that sometimes authority is actually very important.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 10/07/2026
Personal point of annoyance: Gideon did not quite "lose by 9." RCV was never run because Collins cleared 50% of first-choice votes. But a large proportion of third-place finisher's Lisa Savage's votes probably listed Gideon second, and Savage got 5% of the vote. bsky.app/profile/eric...
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
Another corrupt and troubled candidate, elevated by Sanders and the anti-establishment left. His narrow primary win over Gwen Graham in 2018 probably cost Bill Nelson his Senate seat, and cost Dems 5-8 House seats *this cycle* given the two FL gerrymanders. www.tampabay.com/news/florida...
tampabay.com
Andrew Gillum’s Alabama arrest an unwelcome reminder for Florida Democrats
After nearly winning the 2018 governor’s race, Gillum has faced hard times. His arrest last week in Alabama is the latest in a series of setbacks that continue to haunt Florida Democrats.
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Evan Rosenman @evanrosenman.bsky.social · 09/07/2026
May Platner slither back into whatever primordial soup of Jagermeister and Axe Body spray from whence he emerged, never to be heard from again.
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